Mafia 93 - A Roccisi Summer - Over!

[charter]

Because you look a lot like OGB's scumbuddy. I believe I went over this yesterday.

[Starbuck]

If I was OGB's scum buddy, why would I have voted for him?


I said earlier, I really didn't care if OGB or Mufasa were voted off because neither of them were adding anything useful at all to our scum hunt.

[Starbuck]

vote alvinz95

This vote is completely out of no where.



Care to elaborate Howard?

[Starbuck]

I am also going to

Unvote

because I voted in haste and I have a lot to catch up on now.

[Korts]

vote alvinz95

This vote is completely out of no where.



Care to elaborate Howard?

Did you notice that this point has already been made by me, and implicitly by charter?

[Seraphim]

I think it's highly unlikely that

A. That there is a scum in each claimed neighbor group
B. That both of those are scum from one Mafia group

You've already stated that I'm not from the Russian Mafia. If you don't believe I'm actually from the Upper Roccisi Neighborhood and that I'm lying, fine, then it's absolutely possible that I'm scum. But the entire axis of the case rests on the fact that I'm Italian Mafia and from a set-up perspective, that's highly, highly unlikely.

Logically, there will be at least one Russian Mafia who is also part of a separate group.

But wait. I thought I was a member of the Italian Mafia! Seriously.

Unvote

I think I agree that darkdude looks more like inept town than scum right now.

[Seraphim]

If I was OGB's scum buddy, why would I have voted for him?


I said earlier, I really didn't care if OGB or Mufasa were voted off because neither of them were adding anything useful at all to our scum hunt.

Distancing.

I think we caught newb scum.

Vote: Starbuck

[Starbuck]

If I was OGB's scum buddy, why would I have voted for him?


I said earlier, I really didn't care if OGB or Mufasa were voted off because neither of them were adding anything useful at all to our scum hunt.

Distancing.

I think we caught newb scum.

Vote: Starbuck

Think what you may, but the write up will show exactly what I am and where I am aligned.

So if you want to waste a lynch on me and not on a scum, go ahead, but I think we have scum to fry rather than our own townies.

[skitzer]

I've got a little :tinfoil: that there might be a third scum group, not a SK/Vig - and at least one of those three exist or something really weird is going on.

Unless I've got the rules wrong, large normals may only have two mafia groups.

For the time being, roflcopter's case on Seraphim makes lots of sense. I'm going to look at a few other things before I vote though.

Whats the expected number of scum and mafia groups in this game?

Auto-answered above. There can't be anymore than 2, if I'm correct.

If I was OGB's scum buddy, why would I have voted for him?

It's called WIFOM. This is such obvious bussing now. Seraphim's case is good, but

Vote: Starbuck

.

Now, I'm going to work it from the opposite perspective rofl did: looking at who the dead mafiates talked about/deflected suspicion/etc.

first, OozingGolfBall:

Unvote; Vote: Mixologist

A scum's random vote, IMO, is usually more than likely one of their scum buddies. Mix was also one of the people who flipfloped betvveen OGB and Mufasa, as noted by someone else.

Nice ad hom. Unvote; Vote: Mufasa

I'm doubting Mufasa is scum now (not from this, obviously, but from the tremendous amount of dead scum on his wagon.

now, inHimshallibe:

vote: Caboose

inHim's random vote. I believe Caboose is one of the suggested suspects for Italan Mafia?

Seraphim wrote:
inHimshallIbe: I'm sorry but your first post reads scum to me...placing your vote on someone in no danger of being lynched while you catch up so that you seem like you're doing something is very scummy. Please explain your case against Caboose in more detail.
I actually thought he had more than 0 votes at the time I voted. I much prefer a wagon. I have no more detail.Seraphim wrote:
rofl: I dunno, rofl. You haven't seen Mufasa's past play. I've certainly been weighing whether or not he's town in my head.

...

Unvote Don't like the speed of this wagon at all. Mufasa is definitely still my #1 suspect but pressuring him with votes isn't going to do any good.
unvote
vote: Seraphim

What is there to pressure Mufasa about anyway? I don't like how you've backed off his lynch train.

Distance between inHim and Seraphim. Also distracting from Mufasa, which is weird.

I am responding to this directly because you did mention it, but probably won't come back to it after this post, unless of course I ruffle some other goose's feathers. Doublespeak, to clarify, would be Caboose's alvinz spiel, which I more or less see as fencesitting (one of my favorite words in my mafia vernacular).

Distance between him Caboose, which makes a paradox in my logic (note when I'm saying "distancing" I'm meaning they are against each other, not necessarily scum against each other.

charter seems convicted, and Starbuck seems negligent.

Not among any of this is Axelrod, and duly noted.

Strange people to point out, charter and Axelrod out of the blue. Starbuck is an optimal choice to point out, but he didn't necessarily say he was suspicious.

Finally, ThAdmiral:

ekim actually has some good points to say about the ogb situation. Here they are:
...
ekim brings up the distraction argument against ogb...
I was beginning to like him

a lot of nearness to ekiM.

Spyrex makes a few bold claims about people, some I agree with some I don't. Have seen him play like this before as town and have been getting town vibes off him in general.
...
These are two zingers that summarize my stance on a few things in an overall very good post by iamausername.
+ town points to iamausername.

more buddying to SpyreX and iama. Of course, every buddy Thad made probalby isn't scum, but this is a good basic list.

Yes, obviously I am trying to protect my scum buddies populartajo and Mufasa.

Something to look at now that we know thad is scum...

Overall, I'm seeing Seraphim, Starbuck, and Caboose. Starbuck's weird WIFOM defense still has me thrown for a loop, so I'm voting him.

[Seraphim]

If I was OGB's scum buddy, why would I have voted for him?


I said earlier, I really didn't care if OGB or Mufasa were voted off because neither of them were adding anything useful at all to our scum hunt.

Distancing.

I think we caught newb scum.

Vote: Starbuck

Think what you may, but the write up will show exactly what I am and where I am aligned.

So if you want to waste a lynch on me and not on a scum, go ahead, but I think we have scum to fry rather than our own townies.

So you can't defend your actions any more than that? Why should we believe you are town?

[Korts]

If I was OGB's scum buddy, why would I have voted for him?


I said earlier, I really didn't care if OGB or Mufasa were voted off because neither of them were adding anything useful at all to our scum hunt.

Distancing.

I think we caught newb

scum.

Vote: Starbuck

Fixed. See insanepenguin in Roccisi Autumn. The logic is bad, but it's not inherently scummy.

Starbuck, do you realize how empty and useless your reply to above quote was? Also, it sounded a bit like you are threatening town.

skitzer's post has to wait, I'm going to sleep.

[Starbuck]

vote alvinz95

This vote is completely out of no where.



Care to elaborate Howard?

Did you notice that this point has already been made by me, and implicitly by charter?

I didn't see it until after I had posted as I was going back through the thread, but thanks for talking down to me, I greatly enjoy it.

[HowardRoark]

Perhaps for the fact that he was almost nonexistent yesterday and has yet to appear today.

[TDC]

Vote Count

Seraphim (4): roflcopter, Korts, populartajo, Mufasa
Starbuck (3): SpyreX, Seraphim, skitzer
Axelrod (1): charter
alvinz95 (1): HowardRoark

Not Voting (10): tubby216, darkdude, ekiM, iamausername, alvinz95, X, Mixologist, Caboose, Axelrod, Starbuck

10 to lynch.

[alvinz95]

Ha, I found the pot of gold. Despite my claim that Caboose was town because I thought he was joking, Caboose is still lingering on lynching me with little basis except that I'm not posting which is what I do in all my games... But now I see HowardRoark following Caboose's vote. It seems this is all under the plan to pick on the non-contributor which is what I do in all games and everyone knows. Caboose most likely did this to deflect attention off OozingGolfBall. Now HowardRoark follow and HowardRoark did not vote OGB either.

Scum = Caboose, HowardRoark.

Vote: Caboose

[alvinz95]

Off topic:

skitzer isn't your profile picture someone from the nat'l spelling bee?

[skitzer]

Yeah, it's Serena Laine-Lobsinger. She was my favorite...

[SpyreX]

Bolding properly is tech

Unvote, Vote: Seraphim

[Seraphim]

Bolding properly is tech

Unvote, Vote: Seraphim

So, absolutely no comment on my defense? What exactly is your reasoning for voting me?

[tubby216]

ok so this is where i am at,

korts and charter haven't gone against their town meta's yet so i am inclined to to look elsewhere for now,


i really like rofl case on seraphim, I think it is a sound case,

i also like the case on starbuck and starbucks defense or attempt at defense is completely weak,

so in the true spirit of adelism (its a new religion based off of adels game theory) competeing wagons are so win

vote: starbuck

[X]

Um, what good does claiming Neighbor do? IHSIB was a Neighbor and scum.

Because I find it extremely unlikely that two of these groups exist. I knew when I received the neighbor role that there was most likely going to be a scum mason group. I seriously doubt there would be two which is why I'm fairly sure my partner is town. Hopefully, my partner will come to the same conclusion.

This is outguessing the mod, which I don't plan to partake in until many more roles have been revealed.

Good Votes:
Rofl - has laid out a case against me being linked to ThAdmiral...I'll get to debunking this case later in this post.

Korts - You don't give up, do you? Rather than saying that everything I say is scummy, why not actually post a case? Are all my posts scummy? Why? Please, enlighten me.

Why do you have Korts listed under "good votes?" This doesn't read like you think it's a good vote.

This deserves a response.

How did Starbuck have anything to do with the part that you quoted?

It didn't.

Then elaborate on

I think Starbuck is another member.

Member of what? And why?

I can actually see roflcopter being Russian Mafia, bussing hard through D1 to get town points. Your certainty in his guilt was crazy. Also considering darkdude as another Russian Mafioso, as rofl completely ignored him and chalked him up to being town.

I remember Adel saying something as Town that scum often say the names of people they are connected with more often. Looking at the dead Italian Mafiosi from this light, Seraphim does look like scum.

Don't these two hypotheses contradict each other? If you suspect darkdude and rofl to be connected based on the fact that roflcopter ignored darkdude, and then you state that Seraphim is scummy because the dead Italians mentioned him often, there's a problem with your logic.

I see where you're coming from, but they are both extremes that look different than Town play. Ignoring a lurker and later calling him town is being overly forgiving, which makes them connected (Seraphim ==> darkdude). Consistently talking about someone without condemning them means you have that person stuck in your mind more, which can be a sign of connection as well (IHSIB ==> Seraphim; ThAdmiral ==> Seraphim is a weaker connection).

If I was OGB's scum buddy, why would I have voted for him?

This is called bussing.

I think I agree that darkdude looks more like inept town than scum right now.

You've already stated this.

Perhaps for the fact that he was almost nonexistent yesterday and has yet to appear today.

I think both of you need to contribute more.

Bolding properly is tech

Unvote, Vote: Seraphim

So, absolutely no comment on my defense? What exactly is your reasoning for voting me?

Read the thread.

Starbuck could very well be scum, but she also does not have a very helpful meta.

Vote: Seraphim

.

[populartajo]

Analysis of the flipped scum:

OGB:

As some have noticed, treating this game as a "guess my real account" game in

random stage

is for obvious reasons not the scumtell rolf and company wanted to show to the world. I agree he deserved the votes (good enough for random stage) and the posterior pressing that developed in posterior zero contribution to the thread and a scummy final post that sealed his fate.

The guy was scum, russian. As usual, his wagon is reliable source of information:

OozingGolfBall (12): roflcopter, SpyreX, ekiM, Mixologist, alvinz95, iamausername, tubby216, charter, Starbuck, Korts, Axelrod, Mufasa

Pretty sure there is at least one Russian in the wagon and more even probable there is an Italian here. (considering also that two Italians are off the wagon)

I'd love to hear some reasons why I'm scum besides you pile of wifom that is your misrep of my first post.

This was to rolf. Rolf is probably not Russian.

Nice ad hom. Unvote; Vote: Mufasa
Too much jumpiness in your posts.

Mufasa is not Russian.

ThAdmiral:

His first post is a soft defense of OGB and Mufasa.

caboose defends mufasa. noted.

Im thinking that no scumpartner will fixate in this. But this is weird because ThAd was kinda doing the same thing.

Mufasa seems inexperienced.
Seraphim says something about the "tone" in which mufasa claimed which is just a very poor and completely subjective way to keep his vote on someone who may very well be a town power role.
It could be a scum claim but it would be a risky one.

So I agree that this ThAd-Caboose relationship feels forced.

darkdude comes out of nowhere are says ogb and mufasa are town. No reasons given.

darkdude is prob not Italian. No scumpartner will fixate in this.

ekim brings up the distraction argument against ogb... I was beginning to like him

I dont like this. Prob distancing.

Skitzer makes some interesting (read: scummy) posts in which he only looks at one side of the mufasa issue, states that we will have to lynch him eventually, and perhaps subtly implies he knows he is town in 173, although I am willing to let that one off with just odd wording.
In any case Skitzer has gone up in my scum rankings.

Skitzer is not Italian.

Good pick up there. It seems she's hinting at the fact that she knows mufasa is town in that first post.
in fact unvote, vote: starbuck

Which makes me think that Starbuck is also not Italian.

Conclusions: Prob not Italians : Starbuck, Skitzer, darkdude

InhimIshallbe

This would be interesting since Inhim was very liberal with his votes.

vote: Caboose
I'll be back maybe tomorrow, but I'm checking in and putting my vote on the most likely scum that I see.

He along Ad, fixated with Caboose early. But inhim didnt develop his suspicions on him. Again, a forced relationship.

unvote
vote: Seraphim
What is there to pressure Mufasa about anyway? I don't like how you've backed off his lynch train.

Mmm, I would dare to say that Seraph is also not Italian. InHim revoted him after some posts. Also this:

First off, "inHim" will help you out on reducing all the typing.

If Seraph had already contacted with inHim in night 0 he would already have found a way to reduce his name.

In other news, HowardRoark and Korts are probably the same faction.

There has to be something hidden here.

I've switched my vote in 5 of 5 posts, correct. But most of the time I've been in catchup mode from the rest of the day's posting. Meh, I change my mind a lot.

Charter is also obv not italian.

2 FOS in a row warrant a vote. unvote vote: skitzer

Along with ThAd, they fixated against skitzer but in a more agressive way. Skitzer is also obv not Italian.

Conclusions: Prob not Italians : Seraphim, skitzer, charter.

Bonus:
Analysis of the Mufasa case:

We know this guy is scummy as fuck. But lets assume for a second he is town and analyze his wagons:
Interesting wagons:

Mufasa (7): charter, Starbuck, skitzer, OozingGolfBall, X, ThAdmiral, inHimshallibe

I agree with the assumption that also makes Mufasa unlikely Russian and Italian. I asked how many mafia groups would be in this game. Since the answer is 2 (can i trust skitzer? yes I can) it makes Mufasa either third party or, more prob and by a wide margin, town.

A normal game should have at least one Mafia faction, and no more than two.

Mufasa (5): charter, iamausername, Mixologist, Starbuck, skitzer

I would bet there is at least one scum in this group.

[populartajo]

Conclusion :

I dont think Seraphim is as optymal as I thought before. Some arguments point him to being likely Italian but inhim, flipped Italian, attacked him in a way that doesnt seem like bussing (twice). Im really interested in pressing someone like Caboose which is posting in mishmash and not here.

Unvote Vote : Caboose.

Im also up for lynching Starbuck but I dont think he is Italian. He is either Russian(more likely) or third party.

[Korts]

@Starbuck: I didn't intend to talk down to you, nor does my post look like that to me in retrospect. Please refrain from depicting my questions as personal attacks. If you want to discredit my points, do it with valid arguments.

Perhaps for the fact that he was almost nonexistent yesterday and has yet to appear today.

Lurkerhunting is a good way to avoid having to post actual content.

alvinz' OMGUS without further comment on the game is noted. Not in a good way.

Both of you need to start being proactive. My paranoid half is starting to suspect a lurking-based bussing scheme between you two.

I am not comfortable with skitzerposting. Day 1 logic is broken in multiple places; attacks Starbuck for newbtell just now; piggybacking on Mufasa=town case without reference to earlier mentions of same point.

But lets assume for a second he is town and analyze his wagons:

For fuckssake we've already come to the conclusion that unless there is some seriously idiotic bussing scheme at hand the guy is town. GTFO off his back and stop trying to spread suspicion of him.

[populartajo]

Well, Korts if you continued reading you will realize how I explain others to get to that conclusion.