Mafia 96 - Murder in Emerald City (Game Over!)

[SerialClergyman]

Rofl, ok, you put it through the relanguager but you don't disagree with the
events?

When you say strong reason for thinking the others are town, any hints?

[Xylthixlm]

Town

Xylthixlm: I know I'm town.
Hayker: Mason. Also lurker. Mason covers many sins.
Wickedestjr: Mason. Play ranges from misguided to downright bizarre, but still, mason.
SpyreX: I've played with SpyreX before and I'm pretty sure I can read him when he's town. Which he is.
Kmd4390: His play reads as very protown. He has gut reads and is playing by them. Town.

Probably Town

Kublai Khan: Miller claim, day 1 play seem townish. Not 100% convinced here.

Unsure

Lowell: Was lurking hard. Has made a few townish posts recently, but not conclusive. "Breadcrumb" on page 31/Lowell post 11 is suggestive but not a slam dunk.

Probably Scum

Faraday: Lurker. Avoiding taking positions.
SerialClergyman: Few scumtells, but no reliable towntells either - any moderately good player could play this way as scum. Play feels closed, hard to read. Suffering highly convenient failures of logic.
curiouskarmadog: Playing almost exactly like he did in the one game I've played where he was scum. Attacking with loaded questions, which are more useful for generating suspicion than for actual scumhunting. Doing nothing I haven't seen him do before as scum.

[SerialClergyman]

And this is where I can't help but think the whole thng is a house of cards. You say there's strong reasons for thinking kmd and spy are town, but it essentially comes down to nothing, just a vague gut/meta read. And that is the basis for thinking everyone else was scum, And when thy joined the Lowell wagon that was enough to declare Lowell less scummy and all of that allows you to come up with a scumteam - all with barely a scumtell or scummy action you can really explain.

It's possible that my preference for something more concrete is interfering wih my read of you, but it looks to me like you've assumed a controversial fact about kmd and spyrex being town for no real reason then framed the game however you felt like. It's allowed you to now be in a position where the two people you declared town on gut and the guy you save from being lynched to all end up on my wagon.

But, of course, they can't all be scum. Well, not all the same factions scum.

Am thinking about revising my theory but I'll need a reread.

What about the points I made against Lowell earlier? Almost everyone seems to have ignored them..

[iamausername]

-=Vote Count #63=-

SerialClergyman (4) - Kmd4390, Xylthixlm, SpyreX, Lowell
Lowell (3) - SerialClergyman, Faraday, Hayker
curiouskarmadog (1) - Kublai Khan
Kmd4390 (1) - Wickedestjr

Not Voting (1) - curiouskarmadog

6 to lynch.

CLICK HERE FOR DEADLINE CLOCK

[Faraday]

I don't see myself moving from a Lowell lynch between now and deadline. There's plenty of room here, let's try and lynch the scum today plz.

Also Xyl who haven't I taken a position on? I'm curious.

I think KK and the masons are obv town.

SpyreX looks pretty damn town too.

I think the remaining scum are in Lowell, SC, Xyl and KMD.

Lowell is still far and away my top suspect.

[Xylthixlm]

a vague gut/meta read

Love the loaded language. See SerialClergyman's "summary" for more gems like this.

[SerialClergyman]

Attacking the language not the argument again.

Phrase it however you like - you can't point to anything more concrete than gut or meta, correct?

[Xylthixlm]

Kmd4390: His play reads as very protown.

He has gut reads and is playing by them.

Town.

Is this "anything more concrete than gut or meta"?

[SerialClergyman]

Quotes? As far as I'm aware, KMD has been voting based off the wagon analysis he did a long time ago. Where do you see him going by gut reads.

Also, why would you think having gut reads and playing by them makes you town? I tend to find people with actual evidence, scumtells and quotes more town than those who don't provide reasons.

[Xylthixlm]

Also, why would you think having gut reads and playing by them makes you town?

Experience. Gut reads are hard to fake convincingly as scum.

Quotes? As far as I'm aware, KMD has been voting based off the wagon analysis he did a long time ago. Where do you see him going by gut reads.

Are you asking me to build a case on Nam? All I have right now is gut/VC analysis

Apparently you remember the wagon analysis part but completely ignore the gut part?

[SerialClergyman]

Well - literally all of his votes since he did the VC analysis have all been in line with it. So it looks to me like 'gut' in this case could well mean 'he's next on my list and I have no reasons apart from the list'.

hence quotes like:

Nam, you are listed as one of my suspects on the VC analysis. My gut picks you over the other suspects.

Seems clear to me that VC gave him suspects and his 'gut read' was just a way to pick between who was left.

It's also something that allows him to vote with relative impunity, there's always a justifiable reason behind his vote.

But here's this house of cards stuff again - it's scummy because your experience tells you gut reads are hard to fake convincingly (and you're not just the arbiter of whether it's scummy but also whether it is faked.) When you edited my post to say you felt they were town due to a 'strong reason', I expected you'd have, you know, a strong reason. It's so arbitrary.

And if you're town, you're relying on this for every other step, who is scum with who, derailing a wagon on one of the people you thought was likely scum... You're just not

worried

enough about it. I can't find your behaviour townie because you aren't questioning or verifying your position. Maybe that's my shortcoming because I expect other people to suffer that same consternation, but I just don't see it in you and your position is so convinient for scum.

I actually thought about amending my theory because a couple of games ago I got into a long lylo battle with someone and we cross voted, I was lynched and we had both been townies. I thought we were in a quiet game with apathetic lurkers but it turned out the scum were just waiting in the wings, tossing in the odd comment and waiting to pounce.

So I played out a scenario where you were town, hence all these questions to try to put myself in your shoes. But two things are problematic - Lowell has to be scum, I'm sure of it. His defence has been terrible, his contribution to the game has been terrible, he has a terrible voting record. He's contradicted himself and taken advantage of every possible opportunity to look out for number one. There are reams of quotes of all these actions throughout the game. And if Lowell is scum, it's hard to see you as town after today.

What would you do tomorrow if Lowell flipped Vermillon? Who would be your likely scum team?

[SpyreX]

Good gravy I'm starting to go around the horn to thinking both of you are town and this is an amazing case of "worlds greatest townfights"

[Xylthixlm]

Good gravy I'm starting to go around the horn to thinking both of you are town and this is an amazing case of "worlds greatest townfights"

The thought has crossed my mind here actually

unvote, vote curiouskarmadog

[SpyreX]

Oddly enough if BOTH of you are town which is where I'm starting to lean than I might be far more content with a Lowell lynch.

[SerialClergyman]

Well that was unexpected.

If we followed the theory that we're both town, then the wagon on Lowell doesn't look as bad as it first did, correct? And those who are lurking and hoping things work out don't look as good either?

My problem with accepting it as I said above is that I'm convinced about Lowell, and your derailing of Lowell makes it hard to believe you're town. And this could just be an attempt to address my concerns with you before, your lack of being 'worried' or questioning your position.

Spyrex, could I ask why you started to have that reaction to our conversation? It seemed when I was arguing with you yesterday or two days ago that you'd made up your mind that I was scum?

[Xylthixlm]

Well that was unexpected.

I do change my opinions in light of new evidence sometimes. I believe curiouskarmadog calls it "scummy backtracking".

[SpyreX]

It's real hard to quantify but rereading and watching the natural extension of these talks you both have a very "genuine" feel.

Xyl's logical paths every step of the way make absolute sense to me as town.

The methods of your argument and, get this, the confusion around Xyl after sitting back and really processing it make sense as town.

UNDER THIS THEORY:

Lowell feels like a bette lynchr.

KMD and CKD both become far more plausible.

Faraday is still a nutter.

[Xylthixlm]

If SerialClergyman is town, Kmd will look a

lot

worse here for just sitting the whole thing out.

Faraday looks bad regardless.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh, and SpyreX is totally town here. Just in case I needed more evidence.

[Faraday]

Wicked's vote seems to be parked on KMD, and he's gone V/La, this makes it more difficult since we need a full majority for deadline. Also we've only got around 2 days left to come to a consensus.

Well I'm not sure what to make of Xyl's vote change. Slightly unexpected. Seems like a more townie thing to do at this stage of the game, I think, rather than push through a lynch.

I still think Lowell is most likely to be scum, but I think I probably need to read through KMD, who I've been kind of forgetting and had scum by POE, and CKD who I've thought was quite town just to make sure.

Also I'm perfectly sane, most of the time.

[Faraday]

Hmm never mind, it appears Wicked could be back before deadline, depending on when he actually left. He posted he was gone for a week last Friday, so he might be back.

[Lowell]

I don't like people talking themselves into my lynch again. I thought we were past that. If there's anything resembling a real case I'll address it. My suspicion is that it's a few people tunnelling (hayker, faraday), a few others lazy as sin, and another desperately and suspiciously trying to play "peacemaker" (spy).

unvote, vote ckd

. I find him and SC basically interchangeable. I'll vote for either, and I wouldn't dare question the current SC lovefest.

[curiouskarmadog]

Updating from page 85, typing as I am going.

If Lowell is the last Cerulean, and is a neighbor, that would give the Ceruleans three power roles (doctor, roleblocker, neighbor). That's not impossible, but it's a little unlikely. That lowers my estimate of the likelihood that Lowell is scum enough to make me want to look elsewhere today.

What do I say about Lowell's scumminess in this post? I say that

I don't want to lynch him because I don't think he's scum

. Nowhere do I say that he's likely to be Vermillion, and in fact that idea contradicts what I've said in previous posts. You are

making up a position for me that contradicts what I've actually said

and then accusing me of contradicting myself! That is incredibly scummy and you know it.

Due to your other posts, I thought you thought he was scum, this post you rule him out of being Cerulean..so I assumed you thought he was Ver. I know that directly contradicts what you said before...THAT WAS THE WHOLE POINT and what got my hackles in a bunch. I could have read this post wrong. To me, I thought you were indicating that you thought Lowell was scum, but you were arguing reasons (he was Cer...and he was Ver) that he shouldnt be lynched.

For the life of me, I couldnt figure out if someone was suppose to be town, and they thought someone was scum, why they were arguing not to lynch that person. My whole issue with you (in the beginning of our back and forth) was working under the impression you thought Lowell was scum, but didnt want to lynch him.

Oh yes, forgot this: When I point out that curiouskarmadog is accusing me of saying something I never said, he says that I'm arguing "semantics".

did I say you were arguing semanitcs...or are you using a semantics arguement? or do you think they are the same thing?

==

I've read up and I'd be more likely to vote CKD than Xyl. Still prefer Serial and Lowell in that order though.

KMD, I have seen you post paragraphs upon paragraphs of detailed thoughts...here you are lurking...why?

==

1)

xyl

's behavior around my claim is strange.

2)

ckd

looks bad.

3)

faraday

looks bad.

4)

SC

looks bad as well.

6)

spy

looks bad as well.

My guess at scum:

ckd, SC

one team

spy

the other team

unvote, vote ckd

. For his fear of entanglement with xyl, his constant reshuffling of the same case on me, and for his buddying with scummy serialclergyman.

Nice wide net there, scum bag, guess that leaves you open to change your vote without suspicion as you see fit......where have a buddied with SC? Do you think you have buddied with Xyl the past 5-6 pages? What are your thoughts on KMD? I noticed you don’t really mention him.

==

So, to clarify, my thought process is this?
1) aha, I'm scum, but I'll claim mason, so that when other masons are confirmed town, I'll look town!
2) time to breadcrumb!
2) oh no! Other masons have died and been confirmed town! ABORT ABORT!

so why do you think a protown neighorhood has not said anything yet?

==

Maybe the reason I'm not finding the breadcrumb compelling evidence is that I'm the one who found it, and the way I did that is start at page 1 and look for anything that looked like a breadcrumb by anyone. The chance of a false positive doing that is not negligible.

Same question for you, any thoughts, why the neighbor hasn’t said any thing yet?

==

I still think Lowell is scummy,

I am curious why?

==

Faraday is still a nutter.

a nutter? is that a confusing desicion? I have heard that used before (british thing?)...not sure what it means.

==

Also,

vote Lowell

Nothing in the past pages has changed my opinion of you.

That being said, I want to hear more from KMD sooner than later.

Xyl, considering your "as town I always push lurker lynches" comment in your scum game...I am curious about your opinion of KMD today.

[SpyreX]

Hmm doing some rereading I've come across something very interesting I'd like cleared up and fast before deadline.

@Faraday:

Why are you so confident that CKD is town? In most of your lists and/or any "town" references CKD is either omitted entirely or put at "probably town".

This becomes even more interesting when you look at CKD's interactions with Faraday.

@CKD:

Lowell is scummy because of his play or lack thereof. The "breadcrumb" doesn't matter near as much as the lack of substance this game.

And nutter just means that his play doesn't make sense. Not "scummy" doesn't make sense... just doesn't connect right.

SO, anywho:

Unvote

Looking at our player list:
SpyreX
Lowell
curiouskarmadog
Kmd4390
Xylthixlm
Faraday
Hayker
Kublai Khan
SerialClergyman
Wickedestjr

Considering Hayker, Wicked and KK are "clear" and after the whole exchange I am not comfortable with an SC lynch and Xyl being town and me being buttered awesome we are left with:

Lowell
CKD
KMD
Faraday

OF this group I am actually comfortable with any lynch. I'm gettin that gut itch that Faraday-CKD are partners and one of Lowell/KMD is the other. The issue, of course, is it the person who has played scummy or the person who stopped playing.

[Xylthixlm]

At this point I'm almost certain ckd is scum, and the other two(?) scum are almost certainly in SC/faraday/kmd/Lowell but I'm not sure which two. I would be happiest with a ckd lynch by far.