Mafia 99 - Killers Mafia (game over)

[Empking]

Rising replaces Jackinthebox

[Empking]

1. Rising(1) - realityfan
2. Santos (0)
3. Devestation (4) - Santos, Michelsabreheart, Far Cry, Manho
4. Far_Cry (4) - Flava Flave , Boxman, Rising, Pyromaniac,
5. RealityFan (0)
6. Flava Flave(0) -
7. Boxman (0) -
8. Michelsabreheart (0) -
9. Saberwolf (0) -
10. manho (0) -
11. Donkeyz (0) -
12. Pyromaniac (0)
13. Deathnote(0) -
Not voting (4) - Sabrewolf, Deathnote, Donkeyz, Devestation

7 to lynch

[Rising]

Hello, everybody! While I'm reading, ask away if there's something you want answered right now.

Oh, and

Unvote

for now.

[manho]

deathnote is right and i think michel has done a better job than me. i'll try to deal with FF's defense on my defense on FC, and i'll try to look at devestation. but for now, i'll have a sleep first. i have just had a busy day and it's 2am now.

[Far_Cry]

Hello, everybody! While I'm reading, ask away if there's something you want answered right now.

Oh, and

Unvote

for now.

Welcome! He are my questions (which you can answer after you reread): 1. Who do you think is scum?
2. What do you think about Flava Flave and Pyro's cases on me? Do you think they are valid?

[Devestation]

I'm getting the distinct impression that manho is performing a veiled chainsaw defence of F_C, especially with post 385. By veiled I mean attacking the person they are defending as well. Hence,

FoS: Manho, Vote Far_Cry

for scum buddies.

^That post is my fail, but I should note that I was suprised to note at the time of posting that I actually had not already voted for Far Cry, so this vote will stay there.

[Devestation]

(and I removed it again apparently)

vote: Far Cry

[Empking]

xofelf replaces reality fan.

[Devestation]

no, wait,

unvote

I've confused myself >_<

[Pyromaniac]

I'm back. I'll be rereading. Will probably have a post later today, maybe on monday.

[Pyromaniac]

I love how as deves becomes the main attacker of far_cry the bandwagon and the attacks and votes of his supporters switch to deves. I will do an early game case on far_cry, where he looks the scummiest imo. No town lynch benefits the town really. I don't have time to do a full case since I have a lot of work to do.

[donkeyz12212]

it very well could be that if FC is scum, then his scumbuddies is using this to their advantage to take attention off of him.

Devestation in itself is the scapegoat.

However I don't really like his excuses in the past few posts. It seems fishy

[MichelSableheart]

Devestation, you are confusing the rest of the town too. Can you please be more clear in your explanation?

Pyromaniac: it seems that those who want an alternative to the Far_Cry lynch have to search on the Far_Cry bandwagon. A full majority is needed for a lynch, and voting of the bandwagon would need at least one person on the bandwagon to switch. If you know of an acceptable alternative, I would love to hear it.

---

Also, I very strongly disagree that a no lynch would benefit the town. As far as I know, the lynch is the only tool we have to find mafia. Assuming for a moment that there is only one scumgroup (not an unreasonable assumption in a 13 player game), who kills every night, and we lynch every day, the game would proceed as follows:

day 1: 13 players left alive
day 2: 11 players left alive
day 3: 9 players left alive
day 4: 7 players left alive
day 5: 5 players left alive
day 6: 3 players left alive

So we would have 6 lynches to lynch all the scum. On the other hand, if we no lynch, the game would proceed as follows:

day 1: 13 players left alive, NO lynch
day 2: 12 players left alive
day 3: 10 players left alive
day 4: 8 players left alive
day 5: 6 players left alive
day 6: 4 players left alive

If we mislynch with 4 players left alive, the mafia makes a kill at night, meaning two players are left alive, one of whom is mafia, meaning a mafia win. Therefore, if we nolynch, we have only 5 lynches available to find all the scum. No lynching would effectively cost us a lynch, and is therefore EXTREMELY BAD for town.

[Pyromaniac]

Who says there are 2 scum? I could see a cop + doc and 3 scum, maybe one scum power role.

[Pyromaniac]

Or 2 scum and a sk.

[xofelf]

Hi... gonna do some reading here quick, anything anyone wants me to focus on please say so now.

Oh and just in case:

Unvote

[MichelSableheart]

@pyromaniac: where do I make the assumption that there are only two scum? I was talking about 1 scumgroup, but I never specified how many scum were in that group. My reasoning is correct regardless of the size of the scumgroup.

I prefer not to go into the possibility of town powerroles, as they tend to be more effective with fewer players alive, and likely don't change the fact that no lynching takes away one of our lynch opportunities.

If there are two mafia and an SK around, lynching today would be even more vital, as there are more anti-town kills going on. In that scenario, we need every lynch we can get, and definately can't risk to lose a lynch by no lynching.

[Pyromaniac]

Sorry, I misinterpreted.

[Pyromaniac]

Far_cry makes an extremely weird 3 post. He makes a scumtell out of nothing. Literally nothing. A random vote for a random reason that happened to target far_cry. This type of reaction is what I look for in the random vote. It shows extreme fear of being lynched. Then he presses the case and a little bandwagon forms on him. Then in post 65 you see a little buddying up with donkeyz1011010101. Post 77 is making more accusations of random attackers. Again, with no case or supporting evidence or anything at all.
It is also worth noting that far_cry does nothing to defend himself. He has done a more primative version of the chainsaw defense. Notice how far_cry expertly shifts the attention of the game to pimj, who has done nothing really scummy other then place a random vote.

This is just part of my reasoning.

[Far_Cry]

Far_cry makes an extremely weird 3 post. He makes a scumtell out of nothing. Literally nothing. A random vote for a random reason that happened to target far_cry. This type of reaction is what I look for in the random vote. It shows extreme fear of being lynched. Then he presses the case and a little bandwagon forms on him. Then in post 65 you see a little buddying up with donkeyz1011010101. Post 77 is making more accusations of random attackers. Again, with no case or supporting evidence or anything at all.
It is also worth noting that far_cry does nothing to defend himself. He has done a more primative version of the chainsaw defense. Notice how far_cry expertly shifts the attention of the game to pimj, who has done nothing really scummy other then place a random vote.

This is just part of my reasoning.

I was attempting to get out of the RVS and get some real activity. It was a thought that he is perhaps scum.

[Flava Flave]

Good summary of my opinions on Far_Cry throughout the game. When I replaced in, I wasn't really sure what to think of him.

I had seen him do some suspicious things

and I had seen him do some pro-town discussion. When he started getting attacked on weak reasons however, especially considering that those weak reasons led to a large bandwagon supported by most of the worst players in the game, that opinion changed. That bandwagon looks extremely like one pushed by scum in order to get a mislynch. Which makes Far_Cry almost certainly town IMO.

So he was scummy, got attacked, and is town for it?

Read what I said again please. He was neutral, got attacked for poor reasons, and is town for it.

You admit he did suspicious things. Why are you surprised to see votes pile on for it?

Because Walls-O-Text hurt the town, and our opinions are clear and not likely to change, I'm going to ask you. Is a response to post 422 necessary? If you believe it is, I'll respond. But I don't really expect anything to come from it.

Please note that you only gave your reasons in post #254, which comes after post #249, which is the post you were talking about in the original post.

Oh well. Reasons are there now and it didn't take very long to post them.

xofelf replaces reality fan.

Oh, you again.

No lynching would effectively cost us a lynch, and is therefore EXTREMELY BAD for town.

And yet when we have a perfectly good lynch lined up, you start a counterwagon basically for the sake of starting a counter wagon. This is scummy.

[Rising]

Um... Okay. Finished reading.

I think this game is a mess, because players are constantly looking for the wrong things. You should have been putting pressure on lurking players instead of suspecting active players because you think they are acting "Supertown" (I hate that argument), and a lot of you are demanding proof and good reasons behind every vote, and it's just too early for that. At this moment - in this game - I don't think there are any really good cases to be made against anyone.

This is my thoughts about y'all: (listed from the ones I think are green to the scummiest)

Sabrewolf

Some of his posts make me think he doesn't know what's going on, like #338: "Do you think it's possible one or more of them have roles where they win when you are lynched before they are", but for the most of the game, I think Sabre is this town's best scumhunter. He has been really observant, and using good logic (none of that stupid Supertown crap) to build his cases.
Plus; I don't think he's ever been opportunistic or looking for an easy, early lynch. He even unvoted F_C at a time where he thought their discussion were a distraction to the other players, and hurt town.
I don't like that he unvoted Pyro in #370, however, right after manho had followed his vote. That struck me as weird. Not particularly scummy, though.

Pyromaniac (Sudai)

I got a pretty good vibe from Sudai, and Pyro has been pretty helpful in his scumhunting. At first I thought Pyro's vote on Far_Cry seemed opportunistic (he even *said* he suspected donkeyz to be the most likely to be scum, and that Realityfan were the worst lurker, but he still voted for Far_Cry) but I have a slightly better feeling about him now.

One of the reasons why I have a good feeling about him is slightly meta: In his first post, he said "I don’t have a read on Chaco or Sudia." I believe a scum would make sure to know what player he replaced - right after he checked to see who his scumbuddy were. This - that Pyro forgot who he replaced - make me think he's a townie, so eager to help out the town that he forgot what player he replaced.

DeathNote (Chaco) (RobotPirateninja)

I don't really have a read on these players. It is noteworthy that both Chaco and Deathnote is defending Far_Cry, however, and I think that they both have had pretty bad reasons for doing so.
I didn't agree at all with Chaco when he posted "The case on Far Cry is dumb at best. Saber is so wishy washy that it's hysterical", and Deathnote said: "IMO if Far_Cry did turn up scum (I doubt it) then Michel is more then likely scum with him." I don't agree with either of them, but none of them have struck me as particularly scummy.
This is not the lynch for today. But Deathnote is one of the players we should put some pressure on tomorrow.

Realityfan

Completely under the radar. At least he agrees that Supertown is a stupid argument.

Santos

Another lurker. I haven't really got a good read on this one. I dislike everyone on the Devestation-wagon, but Santos strikes me as pretty green since he started it.

Boxman

Bleh. He could be replaced with a parrot that randomly yelled the phrase "Far_Cry is scum! Awrk! I'm happy where my vote is! Awrk! Boxman want a cracker! Awrk!" Completely hopeless. But not necessarily scum.

Flava Flave (Toast)

I sort of like Flava, because in my opinion, he was the player that got the game going in #254. And I doubt that a scum would launch that kind of attack on another player. The thing about Flave that I *don't* like, however, is that he's chainlynching, or at least gets ahead of himself suggesting scumpairings.

#247: "Notably Far_Cry, Saber, and Sudai as scum and then Devestator and Donkeyz as town."
#254: "Pimj is probably your [Far_Cry's] scumbuddy."
#267: "Going on record saying that Far, Mich, and manho are the scumteam."
#373: "Sounds like a scumbuddy." [at michel]

This is ridiculous. Stop it immediately.

Devestation

His wishy-washy voting patterns makes me suspicious, but other than that, he strikes me as a sensible player. Not the best lynch for today, in my opinion.

Michelsabreheart (PimJ)

I hated post #238: "The most logical explanation for this [Devestations] behaviour, at least to me, would be that he is excited about playing an interesting role. That makes him probable scum." That was rolefishing nonsense.
And "posting lots is very good for scum too, because it allows them to steer the town in the direction they want" was awful. Posting lots is *difficult* for scum, since they are more likely to make mistakes that way. I'm not saying that scum always lurk (they don't, of course) but this argument didn't make any sense.

And I dislike that he tries to tell Sabre who he should vote for in #298: "Saberwolf, you aren't voting anyone atm. Why FoS [Boxman, who Michel and manho voted for at that moment] instead of vote?"

In fact, I think everything Michel says is completely wrong up until #374: "Seriously people, can we please lynch in the hope of actually hitting the scum, rather then get rid of a good town player because of the info it might give us?"

This list of his might be interesting to check later on, by the way: "I believe that Devestation, Flava Flave, Pyromaniac and Saberwolf are all better lynches then Far_Cry."

Far_Cry

Ok. This is the central player in this game. It seems like most posts in this game are about him in one sence or another.

I think it all started somewhere around #179, the business with Sabrewolf: "Q2: I rly believe u are trying to act super-town. [...] Q4: I'm not falling for your shitty pressure. Again u are trying to act like a fucking smart-ass. Start actually contributing."

This post just reeks of desperation. I'm not surprised that Far_Cry got a lot of attention and votes after that. I didn't think much of it at the time - I thought that FC just hated Sabre for something that had happened in another game, and that he was being immature about it, but he kept at it for a really long time.

Like in #193: "Your little stupid comments makes me think you are acting like the nice guy. [...] Saberwolf, all you have done this whole game (at least most of it) is attack me." Yeah, but who could blame him for that? Far_Cry couldn't write a single sentence at this time without setting off alarms everywhere. I wasn't sure if he really was scum, but he hurt town a lot by acting like a whiny baby.

But Far_Cry didn't think there was anything suspicious about his behaviour: In #249 he wrote: "You playing the I think....., I think...... game. Scum? Very possibly? Anti-town? Definitely. [...] Every single one of you guys that attacked me and think I'm scum did so without valid reason."

This is just ridiculous. The biggest ape in the game accuses

other

players for being anti-town? Get a grip, Far_Cry. Everyone had a VERY valid reason, because you had been acting like the poster child of guilt, shame and frustration for the last 100 posts. Stop pretending that you've been playing a good game and behaved like a protown player! Argh!

So, What's my verdict?
To be honest, I'm not really sure. I think Far_Cry has been hurting the town a lot by pinging everyones scumdar, and I actually agree with him that at least one of the players voting for him most likely is scum. But is he the lynch for today? I'm not sure.

donkeyz

In his 9th post, he votes Sabrewolf because of a Supertown argument: "Saberwolf, I feel like you're trying to give yourself so much credit for appearing town and shoving off any suspicion on yourself to the side."
But later, in his 25th post, he says:
"I agree that basing a vote on who is supertown is really practically useless. "

And I hate how he unvotes Far_Cry because he is at -1. It looks like he's trying to save his scumbuddy, or like he's afraid of being close to hammer a person he knows are about to flip town. I don't like it when people unvotes without good reasons.

manho

This is my #1 pick for todays lynch:

manho is all over the place, often contradicting himself. At one time he says that trying to look pro-town is *not* a scumtell:
"i'm not saying that is a scumtell, but just trying to look pro-town."
But the next time, it's the other way around:
"trying to look pro-town is scummy"

One moment he's saying "nice analysis by flava. waiting for FC to fight against it." After that, he's "flave is just piling up "reasons" so as to build up a lynch, which is scummy."
Now; I agree that piling up reasons for a lynch too early in the game is lynch-hungry and scummy; but if that is what he thinks, then why does he demand "proof" and that people "provide evidence" (his 27th-28th post is full of that)? Manho did not have very good reasons himself for voting Boxman, earlier.

And I raised an eyebrow when manho said "nice analysis by MSH. i haven't noticed that boxman is lurking". How could any active player NOT have noticed this at the time? I thought manho was trying to start a bandwagon against an easy target, here.

I also hate "I will do everything to scumhunt, including making myself look scummy. avoiding looking scummy is scummy, imo." This appears to be an easy out: When he does something scummy, he can just say; "nah, I was just scumhunting. Remember what I said earlier? I'm ready to appear scummy in order to hunt scum. That's just my style."

manho tries to keep himself under everyones radar, often contradicts himself, and strikes me as being very opportunistic and reactive.

[Rising]

So. This isn't a waterproof case, but then again; I'm not pretending that it is. I just think that manho is the scummiest player in this game for the reasons I've posted; and I'm much happier about lynching a player who sneaks under the radar and contradicts *himself* than an active player like Far_Cry that I just happen to disagree with; or a player like Devestation - who hasn't really done anything particularly suspicious.

vote: manho

[MichelSableheart]

You admit he did suspicious things. Why are you surprised to see votes pile on for it?

Because he was far less suspicious then some of the other players in the game.

Because Walls-O-Text hurt the town, and our opinions are clear and not likely to change, I'm going to ask you. Is a response to post 422 necessary? If you believe it is, I'll respond. But I don't really expect anything to come from it.

A direct quote by quote response is not necessary. It would be nice if you could explain in a general sense how some of the stamements you made imply that Far_Cry is scum though. Because that seems to be the main problem I have in understanding your case.

And yet when we have a perfectly good lynch lined up, you start a counterwagon basically for the sake of starting a counter wagon. This is scummy.

As I have stated before, I find the Far_Cry lynch not an acceptable lynch, unless no other options are available.

---
Welcome Rising, it's good to see someone actually willing to analyze take over an inactive slot.

Even though I agree with you that it is too early for extended arguments, I believe that the lynch during day 1 should be better then random. There need to be at least some sort of reasoning for why you believe the person you want to see lynched is scum. Pyromaniac, Donkey and Devestation didn't give any reasoning with their votes.

For now, I'm only going to comment on your remarks about me. Unfortunately, I don't have the time ATM to look at everyone in detail.

I hated post #238: "The most logical explanation for this [Devestations] behaviour, at least to me, would be that he is excited about playing an interesting role. That makes him probable scum." That was rolefishing nonsense.

I personally believe that eagerness to start is a scumtell, for reasons already explained. Given that, what do you believe the best course of action for me would have been? Completely ignoring a scumtell I noticed? Just mentioning "eager to start" and hope noone asks deeper questions?

And "posting lots is very good for scum too, because it allows them to steer the town in the direction they want" was awful. Posting lots is *difficult* for scum, since they are more likely to make mistakes that way. I'm not saying that scum always lurk (they don't, of course) but this argument didn't make any sense.

Posting often is difficult for scum, agreed. But scum who posts often and continually makes good arguments that happen to further his goals is at a great advantage, because less active players are likely to follow his arguments. Because of this, I disagree when "posting lots" is brought up as a pro-town tell, especially if the player mentioning it happens to have the most posts.

And I dislike that he tries to tell Sabre who he should vote for in #298: "Saberwolf, you aren't voting anyone atm. Why FoS [Boxman, who Michel and manho voted for at that moment] instead of vote?"

Of course, there was the feeling that I wouldn't have minded if he joined the bandwagon I was supporting. It was part of my reason for that post. However, the main point I wanted to make was that it is strange to FoS if you aren't voting anyone. A vote is far more likely to get a response, and just as easy to withdraw. There was no risk of a quicklynch as Boxman only had 2 votes. And Saberwolf wasn't voting anyone, so he wouldn't have to reduce a different bandwagon to vote Boxman. . I didn't (and still don't) understand why you would want to FoS someone if you can accomplish more with a vote, without there being any drawbacks.

[Rising]

I personally believe that eagerness to start is a scumtell, for reasons already explained. Given that, what do you believe the best course of action for me would have been? Completely ignoring a scumtell I noticed? Just mentioning "eager to start" and hope noone asks deeper questions?

I believe it would've been best to just mention that he seemed eager to start, without being too specific about roles, since that is potentially dangerous.

But really, this point was something of a stretch. I disagree with you that being eager to start is a scumtell, but that isn't important. I think I can understand how you reasoned at the time, and it seems ok.

I didn't (and still don't) understand why you would want to FoS someone if you can accomplish more with a vote, without there being any drawbacks.

Being hestitant about where to put your vote is definitely something of a scumtell, but it just rubbed me the wrong way when you pressed him to vote for Boxman. I mean; Sabre didn't unvote Far_Cry because he didn't suspect F_C anymore. He unvoted for completely different reasons, and therefore I thought your post looked weird, like you were about to suggest that it was scummy that Sabre didn't put his vote where his mouth was. Plus; At the time I believe that Far_Cry had three votes and Boxman two, so it looked like you really wanted Sabre on your wagon in order to help Far_Cry.

I don't know. It caught my eye, that's all. I admit it's not much of a scumtell, and I like the way you're explaining yourself.