California Trilogy: City of Angels - On Camera (Game Over)

[hewitt]

Death I did have a similar dream last night as Tabris. All of the sudden I'm much more inclined to follow the Crone instead of the Mother.

[Gaspar]

I'm confused. Why is Crone the correct choice?

Also, I'm going to be on a business trip all next week. I'm working on getting a temporary Hydra Head so that I do not have to be outright replaced. :/

[GoofballsAndBaloons]

I don't remember. I tried to put the heckling out of my mind, but it hurts... hurts deep. There was a long explanation that I forgot. We're all idiots for not seeing what a no-brainer the Crone choice is - something to that effect, showing the calculations. I wish my memory was better.

[hewitt]

Um well I don't really know if I'm allowed to say why I believe the Crone is the correct choice. I'm just going to stand by it.

[Mr. Grey]

Vote Count:

5 to Decide.

Mother: 0
Maiden: 0
Crone: 0

Not Voting: 9 (Angel, Clarence Odbody, Count de Morcerf, DEATH, Glen Stewart Godwin, Huey Lewis, John Locke, Kelly Garrett, Tabris)

Current Condorcet Winner:

Mother

To view the complete table of pairwise results, put the following information into this form.

1,Mother
2,Maiden
3,Crone

1:1=2=3
1:1=2=3
1:1=2=3
1:1=2=3
1:1=2=3
1:1=2=3
1:1=2=3
1:1>3>2
1:1=2=3

[Gaspar]

No no no, I remember the random words that got blown away by the Grey Winds. All it said about Crone was that they had "shown" it to be the correct choice, and that Crone is what they would have voted. There wasn't any detailed explanation as to how they got there. We have ZERO knowledge of what these "mystery memories" assumed could be believed or disbelieved.

Now a bunch of people are assuming that the mystery conclusion is correct. I want to know why.

I thought that our conclusion (Crone is 50% bad, 50% good; Mother is 50% good, 50% neutral) was correct, if we believe the Advocates' information.

[hewitt]

I just remember before I had been not sure how easily those Winds had decided upon the right decision in one of my earlier Scene when I couldn't figure it out. So it makes me feel like I'm once again a little bit behind everybody else and those all-knowledgeable Winds know much more and that the Crone is the correct choice according to them.

[VP Baltar]

And what spectral muse bore this dream?

[hewitt]

I dreamt of Carrie.

[Gaspar]

The words were removed because they were never supposed to be posted here to begin with.

I am going to reiterate the logic based on the hints, and explain why "Crone is the correct choice" is a conclusion that you CANNOT assume is reasonable, unless you are taking on A SINGLE opinion.

Let us label the choices alphabetically:
A = Crone
B = Maiden
C = Mother

To Paraphrase Mr. Locke's hint: "The Liar is not DIRECTLY BEFORE the Truth-Teller alphabetically." This means that one of the following cases must be true:

Scenario 1
A = Crone = BAD
B = Maiden = NEUTRAL
C = Mother = GOOD

Scenario 2
A = Crone = NEUTRAL
B = Maiden = GOOD
C = Mother = BAD

Scenario 3
A = Crone = GOOD
B = Maiden = BAD
C = Mother = NEUTRAL

Scenario 4
A = Crone = GOOD
B = Maiden = Neutral
C = Mother = BAD



Now, let me paraphrase Mr. Obody's hint: "The Mother is not Bad."

If you take this to be true, then it means that Scenario 4 is wrong, and Scenario 2 is wrong.

Thus:
Crone is either BAD or GOOD.
Maiden is either NEUTRAL or BAD.
Mother is either GOOD or NEUTRAL.


----------------------------


Now, that was the case if you believed BOTH advocates. If you choose to believe Locke, but not Obody, then any of the four Scenarios is fine. This means that:
Crone is either BAD or NEUTRAL or GOOD or GOOD
Maiden is either NEUTRAL or GOOD or BAD or NEUTRAL
Mother is either GOOD or BAD or NEUTRAL or BAD.

Thus, Crone has a 50% chance of being correct, and each of the other two has a 25% chance of being correct. Mother is the worst choice, with a 50% bad rate.

This is the opinion which our "Mystery Messenger" holds. They believe that CKD/Locke is good, while Elmo/Obody is evil. They ALSO believe that because Elmosaurian is evil, he necessarily LIED to us.

--------

If you believe that Locke lied to us, then the Scenarios and guesswork are useless. The best you can do is take Crone/Maiden 50/50

IF YOU BELIEVE ELMOSAURIAN

The only way in which Crone can be "concluded" to be the correct choice is if:
A) You believe CKD is good, AND Elmosaurian is bad
AND
B) You believe that Elmosaurian deliberately lied to us



Now, DEATH, you are taking this "conclusion" to heart. Do you believe that Locke told us the truth, and that the original Obody lied to us?

Tabris, you have stated that you believe both of our Advocates to be in cahoots, right? If this is the case, how on earth do you conclude ANYTHING based on what they've told us?


I'm a bit pissed, because I see you both following a post made by an outsider, when not only is THEIR alignment unknown, but also when you don't even necessarily agree with ASSUMPTIONS which led to their conclusion. Do you honestly believe that just because the post came from outside that it's divine and necessarily correct? That's stupid. It's just terrible Mafia.

[Gaspar]

EBWOP: Er, not DEATH. I meant to say Count. I got my characters mixed up.

[VP Baltar]

Angel, do you believe that little devil that previously sat on Mr. Odbody's shoulders was good or bad?

[Gaspar]

I believe that Elmosaurian is evil. (I've given up on roleplaying, because I hate it. It confuses me too much. Sorry, Mr. Grey, but I'm going to be calling everybody by their forum names from now on.) If I were Off Stage, I would be voting for him, with no question about it.

I also believe that CKD is more likely to be evil than Innocent.



HOWEVER, I have stated that I want to believe that both of their information is trustworthy, because I don't see them giving into my earlier argument that "likely doomed scum will deliberately mislead us in any way possible."

Yes, I know that it's backwards/WIFOM logic. My conclusion is based completely on my own gut beliefs. I don't care what kind of flak it gives me. I haven't decided if I want to vote for Mother yet, but it's where I'm leaning currently.

[VP Baltar]

Even if they were both decepticons, I could see Locke giving correct information while the inevitably lynchable Mr. Odbody gave false information to confuse and lead us toward the Mother.

Thank you for pointing out why those in the great beyond believe what they do and why you disagree, but I think I'm set on the Crone now. Just waiting for the go ahead.

[Gaspar]

Bleh. I'm just going to explain what's going through my head right now, because I feel like people are going to ask me about it.



Like I said, I'm pretty certain that Elmosaurian is scum. I'm about 75% that he'll flip "Scientologist," 15-20% that he'll flip "Innocent," and 5-10% that he'll flip "Screen Mafia Guild."

If he flips Scientologist, I will be 95% certain that CKD is also a Scientologist.
If Elmosaurian flips Innocent, I'll be about 70% certain that CKD is still scum.
If Elmosaurian flips Screen Mafia Guild, I'll be only about 20-25% certain that CKD is scum -- definitely not even close enough to want to lynch him.

My other top candidates for scum are, in no particular order:
Thesp
Thok
ShadowLurker
Talilan




Thesp and Thok seem to be largely ignoring the game. They're about the same level, I guess, but there are some differences.

Thok is going "I know I haven't contributed, but I'm here and still not contributing."
Thesp is going "I know I haven't contributed, but I'm here and this is what I think on a couple of current events."

Thok's play is much more agitating, but I don't know if it's more or less likely to make him scum than Thesp.



ShadowLurker, I feel, is posting just enough to not get on anybody's "Lurker/Inactive" list, but I don't feel that he's strongly committed to attacking anybody. This is a HUGE concern for me, and actually has him WAAAYYYY up on my list right now. He's getting by without anybody noticing him, but just barely. I feel like he freely weighs in on stuff like "If we believe the Advocate information, do these scenarios look correct?" but I feel like he's trying to set himself up to be responsible for nothing that could go wrong. Stuff like the coinflip, acting based on assuming correct information. And his Off-Stage gameplay hasn't struck me as being noteworthy either.

He is under the radar just enough so that nobody can pin any egregious mistakes enough, but he's just barely active enough that nobody is going after him for lurkiness or failure to get involved in the lynchings/decisions. It's this really grey middle ground that worries me a whole ton.


Talilan should be pretty obvious by now. I'm about 50/50 on whether Ortolan is a complete idiot Innocent, or whether Ortolan is moderately idiotic scum.

The biggest thing, like I stated way earlier, is Ortolan's "everyone who attacks or disagrees with me is scum" theory. That philosophy is ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE for any protown player, but it's great for anybody who wants to stay alive and keep their detractors back on their own heels. That attitude is the biggest thing that screams "ORTOLAN IS SCUM" to me, but I can't commit myself to that opinion just yet, because I have better leads at the moment.


And Mr. Grey, I'll talk more about abandoning flavor after the game. The concept was fine, and normally I love flavor, but too many names and terms got incredibly confusing. Bottom line, I think it's dumb to make people refer to Elmosaurian as "the little devil that previously sat on Mr. Obody's shoulders." It makes the game unnecessarily complicated.

[Gaspar]

That's fine, Baltar, and it's exactly why I haven't decided on Mother just yet. I don't know which way I want to vote. I really don't.

Like I said, I think it is very possible that Elmosaurian doesn't want to prove me completely right as he dies. It's kind of the ultimate victory for me, even if I do get lynched.

However, I

did

argue that doomed scums would lie as much as possible. And as I already pointed out, Elmosaurian

did

basically resign himself to lynch during Pre-Scene Three.

[Thok]

I've not so much been ignoring the game as worried about other stuff. I'm not even going to respond to arguments about what my lurking means because I've lurked as both town and scum, and it would be pointless for to comment on it.

I slightly disagree with your assessment of the Locke-lied/Obdody told the truth scenario: in that situation Mother is Good/Good/Neutral/Neutral, while Maiden and Crone are both Bad/Bad/Neutral/Good. That said, I have a hard time believing that Locke lied without both Locke and Odbody lying, given the wording of their clues.

I think the real question with our decision today is how likely we think Odbody is town, as in that case Mother is the right pick, and if Odbody is scum we're stuck with a decent amount of WIFOM.

I do think the case against Odbody is much weaker than the case against Locke (and yes, I do realize that it's pointless for me to say this now that Odbody is offscreen and likely close to lynch): I'm not entirely convinced Odbody would have effectively given himself up On Screen Day 2 unless the various points from On Screen contests are more important than we think they are. Your percentages suggest that you actually feel somewhat similar.

Apologies for including flavor. I mostly think it's pointless also, and I say this despite doing some silly acting On-Screen scene 2. [To be fair, I think it was obvious that my acting was acting and not game relevant.] It's especially bad this scene, since there are three players that can reasonably referred to as Angel. Tabris's acting annoys me in particular, both because it obfuscates what's that hydra is trying to say and also because I've seen all of Neogenesis Evangalion and feel the portrayal of Tabris is horrible.

[VP Baltar]

DEATH pulls out his travel game of Pictionary, which he never leaves his lair without.

0 <------The Loop





X <--------Mr. Godwin

DEATH then crumples up the sheet and plays a rousingly retro game of hacki sack before podering what in the holy hell is taking the great beyond so long to arrive at a decision. DEATH becomes angry when he is bored, and making him impatiently wait is just asking to be scythed later.

[Thok]

I'm confused by DEATH's game. Are you trying to say that I have a halo over me, and that I'm an angel of goodness, or a noose over me, and that you want me lynched?

Also, how certain are you that Odbody will turn up scum? There's a certain amount of difference between his behavior and KY Krew: it's possible that Odbody is a townie playing somewhat stupidly, and that wasn't a plausible explanation for Ky Krew's jumble of misleading statements.

[StarKiss]

*grunt* I have three minds and two of them are too busy to even come and comment. This is somewhere between infuriating and loathable.

However, my pinky says that sometimes, someone has to take the first step

Vote: Crone

[hewitt]

Um, sir, I don't believe we've been given the okay to make a decision yet have we? If we haven't I kindly suggest everybody not to be silly and follow suit with voting for who they want to follow.

[StarKiss]

Now now, there are 9 of us in this church, in no way does stating an opinion more strongly than others is going to do that big of a difference.

I'm just conveying an opinion.

~Dram~

[hewitt]

I just wanted to make sure nobody blindly began piling on votes to go before others are ready.

[curiouskarmadog]

LOL....

Heuy, your thoughts about how Angel thought I was rushing and how scummy that was? I notice no one jumped to my defense, yet others or "rushing" and you even voted..

Why Crone....it is either good or bad
versus Mother who is neutral or good?

also, Mother would let you know if Elmo or myself were lying.

[VP Baltar]

Wouldn't voting the Crone also tell us if Elmo was lying? Also, what does it even matter if he is being lynched? Wouldn't his alignment tell us if he's lying?