Mini 845 - The Amish Village (Game Over)

[Kairyuu]

The catching up will have to wait until tomorrow. My college's internet is about to go down for maintenance until 6am, so I won't be able to post until after classes tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

I'm fairly surprised at the attention my switch is getting. I thought it was rather unremarkable, and to have several players comment negatively on it isn't something I expected or really understand.

Is this your way of saying that you think the people who are pointing this out are scummy?

No. It is my way of saying that any elaboration on people's thoughts would be welcomed, particularly if my responses aren't actually addressing what they should be. It has occurred to me that attacking the most recent person to (practically) join the RayFrost wagon may be a chainsaw defense, but frankly my instinct is that the criticisms of me are pretty genuine, and I don't feel it's worth thinking about until/unless RF flips scum.

[Amished]

Mod Votecount 1-18

RayFrost (4): Herodotus; Artem; Kairyuu; VP Baltar
FishytheFish: (2): Ojanen; le Chat
Kairyuu (1): Chamber
VP Baltar (1): magnus_orion
Rosso_Carne (1): Percy

Not voting (3): Rosso_Carne; RayFrost; FishytheFish

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.


This message is from Artem:

Hey guys,

I'm terribly sorry for doing this to you, but I really don't have the time to play mafia anymore and rather than taking up a spot, I would like to replace out and let somebody else take over.

Again, sorry for the inconvenience.
-Artem

Looking for a replacement, depending on them; I might extend the deadline further, but not 100% on that yet either.

[Fishythefish]

vote: RayFrost

[Herodotus]

I guess that means we won't be hearing Artem's explanation, so I'll skip ahead.

I think "competing wagons" is something town-Artem might consider a good reason for placing a vote. In our last game together (in which he was town,) he took some flak for his opinions about wagons. To paraphrase (and certainly miss the point in the process) he was placing his vote as an invitation to form a wagon. Then the scum were supposed to join the wagon, which would reveal them as scum. This may be a different situation, but the focus on how wagons move is the same.
That doesn't make him more townie, but it means I can understand why he might place his vote as he did if he is town.

I don't think RayFrost should be hammered right now, but he needs to come in and start talking, so his being at L-1 is fine.

le Chat needs that prod, too.

[VP Baltar]

Ray is at L-2, isn't he?

[Herodotus]

You're right. I didn't consider Percy's unvote.

[Herodotus]

Wait... the last votecount is wrong. Rayfrost is at L-1.

[Herodotus]

-Unvotes must be bolded, and are needed to vote someone else.

Percy is still voting Rayfrost. I don't know if that's the only miscounted vote.

I don't think it was intentional on his part.

unvote

so things can get straightened out before an accidental hammer.

[Herodotus]

Sorry for quadruple posting. I've just briefly skimmed everyone for votes. Percy's is the only vote that wasn't legal due to that rule.
Here's my understanding of the votecount as of this post (unless the Mod decides to go by Percy's apparent intent instead of the literal rule.)

Not an official VC

RayFrost (5): Percy; Artem; Kairyuu; VP Baltar; FishytheFish
FishytheFish: (2): Ojanen; le Chat
Kairyuu (1): Chamber
VP Baltar (1): magnus_orion

Not voting (3): Rosso_Carne; RayFrost; Herodotus

Not an official VC

[Amished]

I went with Percy's intent on that one, being a replacement and all >_>

Sticking with Ray being at L-3 (with Hero's unvote) and Percy voting Rosso. Sorry for the confusion.

[Herodotus]

Ok. Ignore my last three posts.

vote: Rayfrost (if necessary)

[le Chat]

hey everyone. i apologize for my inactivity for the past, like, whole week. the game started to stagnate and i definitely didn't do it any favors by leaving it alone. i fully plan to play this game to completion though so ill hop back on board with a smile on my face. its good to see that things are super picking up again, and im going to start reading now. i will read and then sleep, and then after class tomorrow, finish my read and let everyone know what is up in the cat mind.

<3

[Amished]

SerialClergyman replaces Artem effective immediately. I will push back the deadline 3 days (which will be final) to October 14th


Mod Votecount 1-19

RayFrost (5): Herodotus; Artem/SerialClergyman; Kairyuu; VP Baltar; FishytheFish
FishytheFish: (2): Ojanen; le Chat
Kairyuu (1): Chamber
VP Baltar (1): magnus_orion
Rosso_Carne (1): Percy

Not voting (2): Rosso_Carne; RayFrost

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[Fishythefish]

So, I've owed this game some time for a little while, so I've done an iso read on everyone. Here are the reads on those players which I think are worth posting.

Artem
I initially quite liked Artem’s early “calling magnus a townie” gambit – but it looks worse when Nuwen does the precise same thing he was trying to trick magnus into doing, and he doesn’t react. This seems off, if he thinks it is genuinely a good way to get a read – like Percy, I’d like to see his response to this. Other than that, reads null in the rather dull early game. In post 128, he thinks Le Chat is defending Nuwen via an extremely contrived idea – that LC intends to get a specific hypothetical answer to his question, and then is going to implicitly defend Nuwen using it. This is far-fetched, and over-aggressive. If Artem really thinks this is LC’s plan, he should let it happen in order to jump on it later. Doesn’t feel like a very townie post. Something similarish when commenting on “I agree, vote” votes in post 190. Can’t see why you would comment on a rainbow votecount and say that “not much can be said about these votes yet”. All you are likely to do is alert scum to potentially suspicious votes so they can join or leave appropriate wagons. Rereading Artem I’m fairly surprised about how little I find protown. Feels like he’s posted a lot without actually doing much scumhunting.

Kairyuu
Jumps on a jokey post from RD as if it was serious. In explanation, says it was “too blatantly obvious to be truly serious, but I could see him as extremely ballsy scum”. I really don’t see this – either you read the post as serious or you didn’t. Later, he jumps on post 10 (in which RD says all his posts are serious) to strengthen his attack. Now, this is going way too far. You could call RD on not caring about the truth, but even after post 10 of RD’s iso it is perfectly clear that the post Kairyuu is attacking as serious isn’t - even though RD’s post 10 says it is. This attack is hugely unconvincing – I don’t believe Kairyuu really thinks that RD meant the post “But its so much easier to get them killed when they can't fight back!”. His summary of things in 204 is pretty good. Jury still very much out, but overall scummy.

le Chat
I don’t like the way he tries to avoid commenting on the first three pages by saying he didn’t get much from them. In his original post, I read his

I'll read it again and again because that's what I have to do to finally mentally attach what everyone said to their avatar/name but golly gee jeepers whiz whillickers that is a lot of talk.

as a bit of fluff not claiming he will reread from a scumhunting pov, and his justification of his lack of comment with this sentence doesn’t work for me:

I specifically stated that while I don't feel like I got anything worthwhile, I plan to read it again and again. It seems that I should have explicitly stated that when reading them again, if I find something I can latch onto, I will.

His 98 is interesting because, while it asks decent “I think this is wrong” questions, it contains no opinions on who might or might not be scum, and it doesn’t read like scumhunting. I find it hard to assign this post any scumhunting purpose. Posts of this type aren’t always a bad thing, but it is quite rare thing to have a post of this length with no opinions on alignment, and it reads like scum not wanting to attack but wanting to post. Particularly in the context of the criticism of his stance on the first three pages. He later pretty much admits this, in 166, which actually makes it seem less scummy to me – I think newbscum would be more likely to try and hide the fact that they were posting for the sake of not looking suspicious. His suspicions in 166 aren’t bad, except the wishy-washy one on ABR – all he really says is he can’t get a read on him. His self-analysis, in both this and post 260, read quite convincingly like slightly floundering relatively inexperienced town. Looking forward to his next post.

Chamber = RD
Still have some problems with this one. My original case was based off two related things – claiming to have done things to “get reactions”, and not explaining votes consistently (though not never explaining them). The second point can be explained pretty well with chamber’s meta, particularly with the inconsistencies caused by trying to play as an alt. The claim about “getting reactions” still niggles – I’m unconvinced that that was the reason for the post in question, and the post hoc justification that it did, in fact, get reactions, is pretty meaningless.

magnus_orion
For most of the game, I have a protown gut read on magnus. His posts read like posts a townie would make. First thing I don’t like is a very weak vote on Claus (303), but actually it doesn’t read very much like scum, just odd. I start to dislike his play when he starts attacking the RF wagon;

oh, we are approaching deadline?
Rayfrost is clearly town at this point, the wagon picked up speed relatively quickly, far too quickly for a scum wagon.
I recommend an alternate wagon...

I disagree about the wagon speed, and with this whole post really. VP disagrees with this defense of magnus, and magnus responds-

VP's response to me, regardless of my opinion of Rayfrost, makes me more confident he's scum. He didn't restate the reasons, and was quick to try to establish the invalidity of my attack on his wagon.

Why should VP restate reasons if he has already may a case? Why shouldn’t he try and invalidate your attack if he thinks it's weak?

Regarding rayfrost, right now, I don't see any reason to conclude rayfrost is scum. Neither his nor miteymouse's posts were especially scummy and i don't remember rayfrost pinging my scumdar either.

There is a massive difference between this and “Rayfrost is clearly town at this point”.

The whole defense of RF doesn’t ring true. If RF were to flip scum, I’d be very suspicious of magnus. If RF were to flip town, then he’s likely town.

[VP Baltar]

lol, hi Serial! I think I've had more games with you in the past two months than anyone else on site.

[VP Baltar]

Those people who have been promising posts should speak up soon (I know some are supposed to come today or at the end of the week), and then I think Ray should claim so we have time to discuss it.

[SerialClergyman]

lol, hi Serial! I think I've had more games with you in the past two months than anyone else on site.

Not a coincidence... /stalking

I'll get my reading done ASAP and try to get a post out for you guys.

[Herodotus]

I initially quite liked Artem’s early “calling magnus a townie” gambit – but it looks worse when Nuwen does the precise same thing he was trying to trick magnus into doing, and he doesn’t react.

On a related note, that move from Nuwen looked like it might have been intentional. Not sure whether it was, or what the point was.

This seems off, if he thinks it is genuinely a good way to get a read – like Percy, I’d like to see his response to this.

Now that he's been replaced, I wouldn't wait for a response.

The whole defense of RF doesn’t ring true. If RF were to flip scum, I’d be very suspicious of magnus. If RF were to flip town, then he’s likely town.

Noted.
Can you comment on your thoughts about each of the scenarios where one is scum, the other town?

[Kairyuu]

Hooray, SC is playing!

Hooray, the replacements queue is updated again after 3 months of me being lazy!

Boo, that means I don't end up posting in the games I'm actually in tonight!

[Percy]

Regarding rayfrost, right now, I don't see any reason to conclude rayfrost is scum. Neither his nor miteymouse's posts were especially scummy and i don't remember rayfrost pinging my scumdar either.

There is a massive difference between this and “Rayfrost is clearly town at this point”.

The whole defense of RF doesn’t ring true. If RF were to flip scum, I’d be very suspicious of magnus. If RF were to flip town, then he’s likely town.

Yeah, I'd like some elaboration on this. Linking two players' alignments due to the behaviour of one player is almost never a good idea, and your argument as it stands is WIFOM.

My vote is on Rosso, but I will hammer RayFrost if the deadline is approaching.

(I've played in one game with Mitey before, and her playstyle and attitude to Day 1 is different to what it is here - notably, she did some scumhunting and opinion-stating.)

Also still very interested in chamber's response to my questions.

Welcome SC!

[SerialClergyman]

Hi everyone. Lots
of great players in this game. Particular sheepish wave to Percy - hope you saw the pic of my sold house in the other thread.

I'm still rereading, but I'll get there asap.

[Fishythefish]

Now that he's been replaced, I wouldn't wait for a response.

Yeah. I wrote that before I realised he was being replaced.

Can you comment on your thoughts about each of the scenarios where one is scum, the other town?

Yeah, I'd like some elaboration on this. Linking two players' alignments due to the behaviour of one player is almost never a good idea, and your argument as it stands is WIFOM.

I disagree. magnus has produced what I think is a very weak defense of RayFrost. There are three reasons he might do this –
1. He is a scumpartner of Ray, trying to prevent his lynch.
2. He is scum without Ray, trying to look good after the latter’s lynch. Note: this requires magnus to think his defence looks good, which descends into WIFOM.
3. He is a misguided townie.
What I am saying is that magnus’s defence is bad enough that I think 2 and 3 relatively unlikely. Taken in isolation, this episode would make me think that magnus was scum with Ray. If Ray is town, I see magnus’s case as pretty much a nulltell, and so I’d consider magnus pretty townie based on the rest of his play.
There’s no WIFOM in saying “magnus is making a bad case on Ray. If Ray is scum, there’s a good motivation for scum-magnus to do this. So if Ray flips scum, magnus is more likely scum”.
I am not using this as an argument to lynch RF. His own slot merits that. I’m just saying that if he flips scum, we should have a good look at magnus tomorrow.

[Percy]

Hi guys, I fully intended to post tonight, but the game I'm modding ate all my time. I hope to get a chance to post tomorrow, but otherwise it might be a little while, so sorry everyone!

[VP Baltar]

le Chat and Kairyuu need to post something useful in their next posts. I think we've had enough waiting and promises.

Not a coincidence... /stalking

Awww, I'm flattered.

Now where did I put that pepper spray?

On a related note, that move from Nuwen looked like it might have been intentional. Not sure whether it was, or what the point was.

What makes you believe that?

My vote is on Rosso, but I will hammer RayFrost if the deadline is approaching.

Speaking of which, where the heck is he? He hasn't posted for more than a week.

Mod can we get a prod or replacement for Rosso Carne