*checks posts*
Hm, guess not. How strange.
I personally would tend to agree with you, but attempting to outguess the mod rarely ends well no matter how "certain" one thinks one is. If we do proceed under the assumption that we started with 2 scum that might make us a bit too complacent with our lynches. It's safer, IMO, to act as though the larger scumgroup is the one we're playing with.mathcam wrote:Actually, let me re-open a discussion. Given that there were only 2 scum the first time around, why aren't we taking the default position that there are 2 scum this time? Certainly Kublai probably re-worked the game a little between the two runs, but changing the number of scum seems like it would be cause for a major re-balancing, and take a lot longer.
I'm a cat, obviously I'm town aligned.1. charter
2. CoCo
3. Cyberbob
4. SerialClergyman
6. Hoopla
7. le Chat
8. mathcam
12. Vaya
Hoopla (903) wrote:Possibly - it's more guesswork though.SerialClergyman wrote:No way would I let Vaya do the kill if I was his scumpartner. He'd be WAY too likely to draw role investigation.
What I am worried about is if Vaya and/or CoCo aren't scum, it lets scum almost coast to victory unchallenged.Does it not bother anyone else that these convenient lynches are being followed by almost everyone? It just seems too obvious.
Bolding is my own emphasis. These seem to directly contradict each other. All too well I understand worrying and second thoughts, but you call both lynches too convenient and then immediately after you say we have to lynch one of them. Usually the second thoughts come after the statement and develop into some sort of change of opinion (ex: my thoughts on Col. Cathart, his claim, second thoughts, will not vote for his lynch).Hoopla (906) wrote:Wait, so you'd be comfortable having CoCo alive in lylo?
After claiming vanilla town for no reason, and generally being a nuisance, what incentive is there for scum to kill him? This isn't mentioning his scummy antics. He will either need to be lynched or left alive throughout the game. Although they probably both aren't scum, I would personally take my chances on Vaya being town, rather than CoCo.
Either way, I think we almost have to lynch one of these two today before it gets too late. It should be CoCo though.
You are hypothesizing that SensFan's death came from his mis-hide as a Coward, and therefore we should attempt to hunt and lynch those people that he thought were pro-town enough to hide behind? You are basically saying that we should entertain the idea of voting to lynch those people who Sens thought were pro-Town, those people that we most likely also think are pro-Town. Can you explain to me how that isn't directly anti-Town?mathcam wrote:Sure it's possible. I'd say likely. I'm fine not speculating on the other roles, but I think it's significant that most of these scenarios lead to Sens targeting mafia. So the question is:
"Who does Sens think was not mafia and not likely to be targeted by the mafia?"
I think Vaya and CoCo are clearly out. Sens wouldn't have taken the chance of hiding with them. Not sure about charter, but I'd put everyone else as a plausible hiding target. If I had to pick the most likely, I'd go with Cyberbob. Sens' interactions with him yesterday made me think he found him townish.
I really hate the phrase "outguessing the mod" -- it's only Bastard mods who think of themselves as being in a guessing competition with the players.Cyberbob wrote:I personally would tend to agree with you, but attempting to outguess the mod rarely ends well no matter how "certain" one thinks one is.
Well, good, at least this is an actual reason. But really? You think our standards for lynch will be different? Regardless of how many scum there are, don't we always want to lynch the scummiest person? And it'sBob wrote:If we do proceed under the assumption that we started with 2 scum that might make us a bit too complacent with our lynches. It's safer, IMO, to act as though the larger scumgroup is the one we're playing with.
I'm not saying that this should dictate today's lynch, but it's very relevant, yes. And I said something a little more specific -- we should find someone who Sens thought was town,The cat wrote:You are hypothesizing that SensFan's death came from his mis-hide as a Coward, and therefore we should attempt to hunt and lynch those people that he thought were pro-town enough to hide behind? You are basically saying that we should entertain the idea of voting to lynch those people who Sens thought were pro-Town, those people that we most likely also think are pro-Town. Can you explain to me how that isn't directly anti-Town?
Ignoring important facts because they're confusing is silly. There are several plausible scenarios for what happened that night, Sens targeted mafia and mafia targeted Sens being my personal favorite, but others which involve any number of pro-town roles (blockers, docs, etc.)Le Chat wrote:I do not think we can use Sens' role and his death to determine scum. I think that opens too many possible doors. Especially considering the fact that it is super odd to see that he, a Coward, was a lone night death, when his role makes it seem like there is either 0 or 2 deaths when it concerns him. It is super confusing and I don't want it to cloud my judgment.
I'm not suggesting that we do anything of the sort, actually. I'm saying that we shouldmathcam wrote:I really hate the phrase "outguessing the mod" -- it's only Bastard mods who think of themselves as being in a guessing competition with the players.Everytime we make an inference about the game (there's probably not 6 scum, or 4 cops, or a cult, etc.) we're "outguessing" the mod in that sense.There's no sense in throwing our hands up in the air and bemoaning the fact that we can't know for certain anything about the setup-- we use facts and inference to create plausible scenarios (keeping fully aware that our scenario is only one possible scenario), and then make decisions based off of those deductions.
See above. I think we're in agreement, but either you're misreading what I'm saying or I wasn't being clear enough.mathcam wrote:That the original setup had 2 scum is an incredibly important piece of information at our disposal, and you would have us completely ignore it.
I think that we might be a little more willing to settle for "policy lynches" and the like if we proceeded under the assumption that there is only one scum left as opposed to two. That's just me, though, and I do see merit in some of your points here - particularly concerning Vaya.mathcam wrote:Well, good, at least this is an actual reason. But really? You think our standards for lynch will be different? Regardless of how many scum there are, don't we always want to lynch the scummiest person? And it'snotsafer to assume something if it leads us to worse decisions. Say I was absolutely positive (which I'm not) that the scum group has size 2 -- then I would be sure that Vaya is not scum. But then I figure to be safe, I'll assume that there's 3 -- then I note that Vaya's done some scummy things, and end up lynching a (say) townie Vaya. Isn't that complacency just as bad? In fact, I think the only potential complacency going on is in regards to avoiding making hard decisions in the name of "not outguessing the mod."
Happens to me all the time.mathcam wrote:Wow, that was supposed to be a 2-liner. Sorry about that.
I've seen a few games with only two scum, but these are usually off-set by weak town powerroles.CoCo wrote:In most situations I've encountered, a two-player scum team is usually caused by the presence of an SK. I see no evidence to suggest one here. Therefore, I see know reason to suspect two scum.
This post is a good post.Hoopla wrote:I've seen a few games with only two scum, but these are usually off-set by weak town powerroles.
Something against the idea of a two-man scumteam this game, is the power that has already flipped for the town so far. A hider can be quite a useful role to confirm town, and a doctor/RB is something that can be more than useful. The 2:10 games I've seen have either been all vanilla, or at max one town powerrole.
For this game to have 2 scum there would need to be some detrimental town-roles (think PGO, paranoid/naive cop etc.) or the two scum would both need to be powered. Both are unlikely, despite the original game starting with only two.
So is this one.charter wrote:Where is my SerialClergyman?
Aside from that, I'm not quite sure what you want from me. I dropped voting you before you even posted due to a closer look at the wagons, so I can't call your attack OMGUS, but I don't think you really believe I'm scum. Maybe you do, and your case is just meagre. I don't know.I'm surprised I haven't copped more attacks. My vote on Peabody was after he self-imploded, so I can hardly be credited with being on the wagon and the person I pushed most agaisnt flipped town callign me scum. It's surprising to me that more people didn't jump on it. This especially includes Sens who seemed to have it in for me yesterday but didn't mention it today. I think if he was scum trying to set up something with his NK he'd be unlikely to just drop it.
This is an incredibly off post:Charter wrote:Upon further reflection, while many people are ignoring Peabody, there really isn't anyone trying to stop his lynch, which I would expect to happen if he was scum. Seems unlikely his buddies would leave him to the vultures without hardly a word or a last minute bus attempt.
Like mathcam and a couple of others, my thoughts probably aren't up to date, and I owe the thread a reread. This is where my thoughts lie now though;SerialClergyman wrote: Hoopla, got a scumlist?
Definitely possible.. However, like Cyberbob said, I don't really think we're going to be able to figure out the setup.mathcam wrote:Given that there were only 2 scum the first time around, why aren't we taking the default position that there are 2 scum this time?
I can't deny it, it does fit, but have you gone back and looked at Peabody's actions towards me day one? He was trying to lynch me for awful reasons. It's pretty indicative of him trying to mislynch me.le chat wrote:CoCo pushes charter often, and I am currently fairly happy with my assessment that charter chose Col Cathart D1 over Peabody because he could lynch Cathart and then use it to hesitate D2 on Peabody. It fits.
Yeah, I'm kind of waivering on it. I want to reread le chat some more too as well, since I think he could be some kind of super sneaky scum. His latest post seemed to be a platform he could jump off on to anyone who is garnering suspicion today.SC wrote:but I don't think you really believe I'm scum. Maybe you do, and your case is just meagre. I don't know.
You still need to explain why you voted him in the first place. That vote isn't going to magically disappear.Vaya wrote:Unvote
Actually, after thinking it over a bit, I'm pretty sure that SC is town based on interactions with Peabody. Peabody rather blatantly defended SC Day 1, it feels a lot like him buddying up with a townie and not the sort of thing I would expect between two scum.
I'm really not sure who might be scum at the moment. I'll have to give it some more thought later, I'm honestly just posting to avoid the prod/replacement right now.