Mini 845 - The Amish Village (Game Over)

[magnus_orion]

okay, now the suspense is killing me.

[SerialClergyman]

Mmm I agree.

I hate this feeling.. I can handle not knowing before the hammer, but after the hammer vote it all comes to ah ead and I just want to know ASAP

[Amished]

I had hoped that Sajin would've posted something since he stated he was gonna reread, but I'm going to bed. Here's the reveal:

After much debate over who's barn looked better after the competitive barn raising festival, it was decided that only non-Amish could raise a barn so ugly as RayFrost's. Unfortunately, they were wrong, RayFrost was just used to field work rather than Barn building.

RayFrost: Vanilla Townie

has been lynched.

Night will end 72 hours (probably) from now. Night actions are due by that time.

Odds that Rayfrost are anti-town are infinity to one!

Also, no, there is no flavor, I just thought that'd be a funny reason for somebody to be lynched

[Amished]

After the vicious catastrophe with a poorly built barn the day before weighing heavily on their minds, the townsfolk went to bed wondering what new horrors would greet them in the coming day.

They dreamt of their friends and brothers being killed without repercussions, and they were uneasy. Everyone awoke early the next morning, and it was because of their sleepy haze that they didn't realize that everyone was still there.

This is the start of Day two. There were no deaths last night.

Tentative deadline is November 13th. The site will be moved to a different server over this weekend and will hinder people's posting. If it has an adverse affect on the gameplay, the deadline may be extended, but don't particularly count on it.

[magnus_orion]

vote: le chat

Rayfrost came up town. This puts everyone on the rayfrost wagon under suspicion. No silly wifom tricks are likely to be pulled in such a scenario, because, while possible, it is more likely scum will want to do what they can to make a town lynch more likely, and that includes pushing the town lynch. I've never actually seen a scum gambit to not push a likely town lynch.
I think we should focus first on Le Chat, whose vote was "to avoid fence sitting", scummy motivations for voting a towny if anything is.

[SerialClergyman]

Meh, not as simple as that. There are usually plenty of townies on a default D1 lynch. Don't know how likely there are to be all the scum, or even a significant group of scum.

Interesting we had no kill.

[Fishythefish]

@magnus: are you saying you are confident that every scum voted Ray?

[VP Baltar]

I don't think magnus is saying that everyone voting Ray was scum or that all of the scum voted Ray, just that it adds suspicion to people on that wagon, which is probably fair enough to say.

Imo, Kairyuu and le chat look like the people who did the most "coasting" on the wagon.

I'd like to hear Kai's assessment of the game now that we have had a lynch and a night, since he said that would boost his involvement.

[SerialClergyman]

..

By definition, if people on the wagon deserve more suspicion there need to be more scum on the wagon than a standard distribution would suggest..

[VP Baltar]

I don't understand what that means? what is "standard distribution"?

Do you believe there were no scum on that wagon?

[magnus_orion]

@magnus: are you saying you are confident that every scum voted Ray?

Am I saying that I believe at least 2 scum were on the wagon? yes.
Am I saying that I'm "confident" at least 2 scum were on the wagon? no
Am I saying that I believe every scum was on the wagon? not quite
Am I saying that I'm "confident" at least 2 scum were on the wagon? no

[magnus_orion]

er... ebwop:
Am I saying that I'm "confident" every scum was on the wagon? no

[magnus_orion]

I don't think magnus is saying that everyone voting Ray was scum or that all of the scum voted Ray, just that it adds suspicion to people on that wagon, which is probably fair enough to say.

Imo, Kairyuu and le chat look like the people who did the most "coasting" on the wagon.

I'd like to hear Kai's assessment of the game now that we have had a lynch and a night, since he said that would boost his involvement.

Sorry, Kai's behaving like kai-town, insofar as I can tell atm. Which is why I can't call his lack of participation scummy to entice him to post more. Which is aggravating.

[VP Baltar]

eh, in my admittedly limited experience with Kai I don't know him to be lazy, but you probably have more experience than I do.

I'd still like to hear a lot more from him today than we did yesterday.

[magnus_orion]

My read has less to do with how much he's been posting and more to do with how he goes about making his points. If he's scum he usually goes out of his way to persuade people, but if he's town he may try to persuade, but isn't usually very persistent in it, and often simply decides things and jumps to conclusion, a trait I've taken advantage of multiple times as scum (heh heh heh). His conviction on rayfrost and chamber being scum gave me a town read on him because he didn't go out of his way to try to convince other people to agree with him. He explained once and then just insisted that his conclusion was correct from thereafter unless asked to explain again or further.

That said, if he is town, then its sort of disappointing, since our streak of being opposite alignments will have been broken, although I guess we could replace "has never been the same alignment" to "has almost never been the same alignment"

Btw, I didn't say this before, but I throughly enjoyed SC's real-estate comment, and am sigging it.

[VP Baltar]

How aware of this meta do you think Kairyuu is?

[magnus_orion]

I dunno, but he doesn't seem to be attempting to fake it or he'd be posting more, in my opinion, cause it would hold his attention more.

[SerialClergyman]

Btw, I didn't say this before, but I throughly enjoyed SC's real-estate comment, and am sigging it.

Lol - glad you liked it

Ok - so where is everyone? Thread's been opened a while now and we've only had about 4 unique posters..

I don't know how useful the wagons on yesterday are going to be given it's a default lynch. Possible town points to Percy given he didn't really have to hammer, I was shaping up to do it but he took responsibility and put himself on the wagon anyway.

Might go back and see if there were alternatives to the Ray wagon that got shut down (aside from the last ditch le chat effort.)

[Percy]

Apologies for the late entrance - sickness and an intense LyLo in another game delayed me.

Right now, I'm interested in chamber. He's switched from an account where he was forcing himself to explain his votes to one where he simply refuses. I don't like his defence of Rosso, and I'm interested in these posts from yesterday:

I still think kairyuu is the best lynch but this game looks like its starting to stagnate quite a bit. If it doesn't get better I could tolerate a rayfrost lynch to hopefully let night breathe some new air into the game.

I skimmed the thread but I don't have time to go look over for unanswered questions right now. If someone wants to point them out before deadline for me I'll make sure to get them answered but other then I can't promise anything (I'll try though) I still think k*yuu is the best lynch. After more thought Id also be willing to lynch fishy. I realize now thinking about it that nuwens play in this game and the other game we played together is remarkably different, and she was town in that one. I'll see what else I can get done before deadline but no promises again, sorry.

This was the extent of his "scumhunting" yesterday. The tl;dr version is:
1. chamber thinks kairyuu is the best lynch;
2. he was OK with a RayFrost lynch to invigorate the town (as opposed to finding scum);
3. he was OK with a Fishy lynch due to unqualified meta reasons.

@chamber

: To what extent do you still hold these things to be true?
Also, how much explanation should we expect from you about any of your thoughts?

I'm interested to hear Sajin's intro post; it should clear up the degree to which Rosso's playstyle was clouding my scumread.

@SerialClergyman

: When you replaced in, you voted le Chat. Today began with magnus voting le Chat (for what he saw was scummy participation in the RayFrost wagon), and your response was:

Meh, not as simple as that. There are usually plenty of townies on a default D1 lynch. Don't know how likely there are to be all the scum, or even a significant group of scum.

Interesting we had no kill.

...so are you still interested in le Chat?
(Also, your final comment in that quote rings a few alarm bells).

@Kairyuu

: Now that Ray's been lynched, who is scum?

@magnus

: You say there were two scum on the wagon, and you think le Chat is one of them. Kairyuu's not the other one (apparently), so any ideas?

[Herodotus]

I don't agree with my understanding of Magnus's idea about the Rayfrost wagon. Mitey and he were looking pretty suspicious, and Ray's lynch was likely to happen regardless of how many scum voted him. So I would expect the scum might be just as likely to stay off the wagon in order to avoid attention as to be on it. In particular, I'm looking at Serial Clergyman. Artem joined the Rayfrost wagon because VP Baltar was leaving it (which, as I said, he might do as town;) then after it was clear that Ray was the lynch, Serial defended him and joined a new wagon. I'm not sure I believe that le Chat was more suspicious to town-Serial, or that Ray would have gotten a defense from town-Serial.

@Sajin:

You are more or less a blank slate in this game so far. In addition to general comments on the game, could you briefly give us your opinion on the few things that Rosso Carne said?

Edit: And now I see Percy has said similar things to some of what I've covered here.

[magnus_orion]

You say there were two scum on the wagon, and you think le Chat is one of them. Kairyuu's not the other one (apparently), so any ideas?

Le chat is scum. We should lynch le chat.
I'm not sure as to who his scum buddies are.

Actually, in concern to you, who replaced claus, you opened with an attack on someone flying under the radar, specifically herodotus, which I would declare as a town tell, except that you don't push this suspicion in the rest of the post. In fact, looking back, it seems part of a sort of carpet criticism on a lot of players that is more apparent now that I read it. In the conclusion of your replace-in post, you slide in and suspect the three unpopular targets (rayfrost, chamber, and rosso) and vote one of them.

Also of note, is that you'd rather address who

else

I suspect, rather than comment on whom I suspect.
In fact, any time le chat came up in that post, it was related to suspecting someone else or ceasing suspicions.
In regards to these

Fos: percy

Its not strong, but that last post you made just felt off.


However, herodotus's recent post also raises alarm bells.
in particular, openly trying to discourage suspecting that scum were on the day1 wagon. Also, I said it yesterday, but rayfrost's wagon built up originally over nothing, and very little substantiated the wagon afterwards. That wagon was pushed by scum, and I have no reason to think otherwise. Since I said this at the start of the day, if I am correct, the scum should be trying to call into doubt this.


In particular, if doubts are not continued to be expressed by a larger group of the town, a convenient little group is forming trying to call my wagon theory into doubt, which aligns perfectly with how I would perceive the scum to act at this point if my thinking is correct.

[chamber]

1. chamber thinks kairyuu is the best lynch;

2. he was OK with a RayFrost lynch to invigorate the town (as opposed to finding scum);

3. he was OK with a Fishy lynch due to unqualified meta reasons.

@chamber

: To what extent do you still hold these things to be true?

4 Also, how much explanation should we expect from you about any of your thoughts?

1 still do
2 I'd rather an active game that I lose than an abandonned one.
3 Still ok with a fishy lynch but need to meta way more then I have before I'd push th option.
4 as much as I've been giving

[chamber]

vote kairyuu

(hit submit instead of preview)

[Fishythefish]

@magnus:
Of course, the RF wagon is a good place to look for scum. However, I think you should bear in mind that in all likelihood at lease 4/5 townies voted RF. He and his predecessor were both scummy players, to about half of protown players (or more). To say that his lynch was just a result of scum pushing is narrow. I think you are blinkered by how much you believed that RF would flip town.
I dislike your statement "oh, and those who disagree with me are scum". This feels like a way to put off people who might argue with you. I don't see why you would make that statement if you believed it - surely you should be waiting to see who disagrees with you, and in what way, and then jump on them afterwards?

[magnus_orion]

not quite. You see what I said was the people who would challenge me in this are scum if, and only if, its a small group that challenges me in this. The fact that I said something shouldn't make townies more or less inclined to disagree or agree with me, because as a group they control whether or not I consider disagreeing with me (in this regard) a scumtell. Scum on the other hand, don't get a choice, since no matter what they do, cannot convince me because they cannot form a majority. If this makes them inclined to not disagree with me, then they'd be forced to agree with me, which puts them at risk in the first place. In other words, it should eliminate scum from interfering and trying to change opinions on my original comment. Of course, I'm doing this all under the premise that my initial supposition is correct.