Mini 845 - The Amish Village (Game Over)

[Fishythefish]

I'm not sure I understand your logic, and I'm not sure I mind for now. I'll think harder about it if and when you draw any conclusions from it.

I'll make a post worthy of the name tomorrow, with suspicions and vote.

[Amished]

Mod Votecount 2-1

le Chat (1): magnus_orion
kairyuu (1): chamber

Not voting (9): Sajin; Herodotus; Kairyuu; VP Baltar; Ojanen; Percy; FishytheFish; le Chat; SerialClergyman


As always, let me know if there's a mistake or something you want addressed by either bolding it in thread or PM'ing me with your questions or concerns. Enjoy!

[magnus_orion]

k, so like, what happened to the posting?

[Ojanen]

Forum was down due to host move at least when I tried.
Will try to find some time again tonight to post.

[Herodotus]

Chamber,
Assuming that you're town and supposing Kairyuu is scum:
Do you believe that Kairyuu might be lynched soon?
Do you believe that your vote alone makes it more likely?
If not, do you believe that there is some other type of utility in your vote?
Do you believe that there is nothing you can do such that if your belief is correct, more players will reach the same conclusion?
I realize you have a playstyle, but I think that it can only hurt the game, not help.

[Fishythefish]

vote: SerialClergyman

I disliked Artem's play. For details, I refer you to Post 464. For a TL/DR:
- Failure to react to something he saw as a good way to get a read on someone when Nuwen reacted to being called a townie.
- Far fetched point against Le Chat
- A comment on a rainbow votecount that serves no real purpose, and doesn't feel like a townie post
- Mostly, though, lots of words with very, very little scumhunting.

SC has only made one big post to contribute to this read. This post, Post 520, didn't strike me as that interesting on the first read, but here is a summary of the reads in it:
Ray - useless, probable town.
Ojanen - likely town.
VP - likely town.
Percy - fairly likely town.
Fishy - "pro-town enough not to want to lynch"
Everyone else - fair game. Now, this is 6 (I think?) players at that time. Not discriminating between the 6 scummiest players is very unhelpful, and the comments he does make about them are more or less alignment neutral. SC does say that he tends to go on town reads rather than scum reads these days, but at this stage in the game that's pretty much totally useless - and "protown gut read" is an immensely easy read to have on someone (noone is really going to object, most of the time). His vote for LC wasn't supported at the time by anything at all. This playerslot has continued to use a lot of words without much scumhunting.

@SC: who is scum?

[VP Baltar]

@Sajin: You are more or less a blank slate in this game so far. In addition to general comments on the game, could you briefly give us your opinion on the few things that Rosso Carne said?

What do you mean by "give us your opinion on the few things that Rosso" said? You mean if he finds them scummy or what he thinks Rosso's thought process might have been? something else I'm not understanding?

Scum on the other hand, don't get a choice, since no matter what they do, cannot convince me because they cannot form a majority. If this makes them inclined to not disagree with me, then they'd be forced to agree with me

While I agree with your original statement that there were probably scum on the Ray wagon, this argument makes no sense whatsoever. If I'm understanding you correctly, you're saying that town is going to believe X and scum is going to believe Y. Because town is the majority, it will be easy to pick out the scum because they will either 1) claim they believe X or 2) put up a false front about believing Y.

This doesn't make sense at all because you have no idea if town players would believe X or Y to begin with.

@SC-why do you go on town reads over scum reads? How long have you been scumhunting like that?

[Herodotus]

More open ended than that, but:
Whether Sajin agrees with Rosso's opinions; his opinion on Rosso's play; any other comments he would make about the things Rosso said.

[Percy]

Sorry all, sickness and LyLo in another game, then downtime, makes for the Percynonpost. I'm back for good, though, starting now.

Le chat is scum. We should lynch le chat.

Hm. You also object to my not dealing with le Chat in my post, which is fair - I'm wary of you artificially inflating this wagon, though, by trying to place all the scum on the wagon and leaving some players (of course including yourself) out of the spotlight. I disagree with you on this:

I've never actually seen a scum gambit to not push a likely town lynch.

...because that's exactly what I did in a game where I was scum, and we won rather convincingly. I opposed a lynch of a townie, my buddy and I weren't on the wagon, it happened anyway, and then we spent the rest of the game slamming the wagonners.

So anyway, le Chat.

This is in regards to his post 98:

I said there was nothing to comment on, and then Claus chided me for it and said that it is suspicious that I didn't even attempt to find points of discussion in all their posts. So

I didn't want to look suspicious

/ be worthless, so I did attempt to comment and discuss them.

i am uncertain on things because its hard to be certain of them. im not trying to please, but

i am trying to avoid garnering unnecessary suspicion to myself

and be a good townsperson.

I see that RayFrost is L-2, so I will

vote: RayFrost

, to do more than fence sit

Also, from my replace in post:

le Chat votes Nuwen in 314, following Ojanen, after expressing suspicions himself earlier. The order here is worth noting.

This is all that I could gather that I thought was worth commenting on at this point that I haven't already mentioned. The first three quotes establish for me that le Chat is scared of getting lynched. This doesn't automatically imply scum, but the way I play town (and think the town role should be played) is very different. So I'd like to ask:

@le Chat

: Can you link me a game on MS where you were scum, and one where you were town?

Also, regarding the fourth quote, I was objecting to was this:

Understand oj's vote on Nuwen and I will

unvote vote Nuwen

as well for now. Want to have Nuwen jump back into the game, I believe I expressed similar opinion in my last post.

He did give some reasoning behind his vote on Nuwen, and I think that's better than just wagon jumping. The "follow someone else" approach

was

employed again for the RayFrost lynch, which is what magnus is objecting to, and there might be something more there.

Hmm. I'll wait to look at le Chat's meta before I come to any firm opinions. If he's an overly cautious and skittish player in his other games, then the case is a lot weaker. If he's not, then it's a lot stronger.

---

The fact that I said something shouldn't make townies more or less inclined to disagree or agree with me, because as a group they control whether or not I consider disagreeing with me (in this regard) a scumtell.

...but townies can't co-ordinate their opinions like the scum can, so one scum making a convincing argument for one interpretation may bring the other townies along. Also, handing the responsibility for the accuracy of your reads and your feelings about the game over to group consensus is kinda weird.

---

I'm still waiting on SC's response to my question in my first post of today, and I think Fishy's case is good. I'm certainly getting more scum (as opposed to VI) vibes from SC than le Chat.

Vote: SerialClergyman

go wagon go!

[Ojanen]

Gonna post in splinters for the next few days. Computer time slots are short for the moment.

1. chamber thinks kairyuu is the best lynch;
2. he was OK with a RayFrost lynch to invigorate the town (as opposed to finding scum);
3. he was OK with a Fishy lynch due to unqualified meta reasons.

@chamber

: To what extent do you still hold these things to be true?
4 Also, how much explanation should we expect from you about any of your thoughts?

1 still do
2 I'd rather an active game that I lose than an abandonned one.
3 Still ok with a fishy lynch but need to meta way more then I have before I'd push th option.
4 as much as I've been giving

vote kairyuu

(hit submit instead of preview)

chamber, how do you want an active game when your playstyle is one where you actively minimize the impact of your votes, as seen again on next post?
I'm torn about chamber. Townpoints to the fact that it would actually be hard to survive as scum with his playstyle I think as opposed to giving in and explaining, and he changed to the radical account himself.
Scumpoints to the fact that when he changed accounts and he had already gotten under heat for some non-reasoning, and the radical account has a established meta for defence.

[SerialClergyman]

Hey, I've been at my sister's wedding and the site went down, so I'm a little behind in my games.

My wagon has come up with surprising veracity. I'll try to answer a few questions.

1) I've been 'townhunting' in my games early in the day - I think I'm better at it and I think it's more important. I've come to that conclusion watching a few players I admire and watching Xyl almost break open my scumteam in Emerald mafia by PoE. A few confirmed town is a powerful force. I hate the early parts of a game, specifically D1, and found my scumreads were poor and my natural tendency to tunnel meant I was often tunnelling town to dire consequences. You can see the same approach in a few ongoing games but none I've flipped in. Without knowing alignment, you can check that out here and here.

2) The suggestion that it's somehow ineffective is pretty ill considered. If I'm right on those reads and successfully narrow down the possibly scum list to 6 people, that's a powerful weapon in hitting scum, especially on D1 when it's so hard to read people. I'm pretty sure it's better than if I was looking at scumtells, at least.

3) You'll also note I hate making up stuff because people are telling me to give them my opinions on who is scum. If I don't have a miracle theory as to why someone is scum, I'm not going to lie and put up some weak case I barely believe in. I was pretty sure Ray was town and pushed pretty hard to save him, noone listened and c'est la vie, but that shows a very clear read that I pushed hard for - accusations of sitting on the fence shouldn't really apply.

4) Percy - my response to magnus was discouraging the idea that those off the wagon are cleared and we should focus on the wagon. I don't believe that for the sort of lynch it was (default deadline lynch of the VI) and don't think wagon analysis at this point is the best way to scumhunt. I also didn't like his defence of that stance and hint that anyone who disagreed is likely to be scum.

As for le chat, I'm still suspicious but given he's still V/LA (I know from a different game) and given we have a lot more time, the urgency is gone.

More to come when I get a bit more time.

[Ojanen]

This accusation is pretty much just black&white untrue, because Rosso did answer, and also the le chat line was under the direct quote of Rosso's statement. Rosso messed up some quotes when answering so I could see Percy overlooking that. But the manner in which le chat said the "I don't know" line was pretty blatantly an intended comment to the Rosso line. The imo misrepresentation of that is strange.

I completely missed the Rosso post. I thought that Rosso had ignored le Chat, after le Chat did the one thing that Rosso claimed made a player blatantly scum. I did look, but obviously not hard enough. I'll retract that line of investigation, and unvote to re-read Rosso in ISO. It looks like he's flaked, too.

You thought it was significantly scummy to ignore it when you thought Rosso had ignored it. Why, seeing as the le Chat comment was clearly an intentional parallel as opposed an inadvertent example of the scumtell Rosso talked about?

[Ojanen]

Kai, asked for your comment on 393 but you ignored it.

Yes ma'am. On it right now.
-reads post-
Mmk. Not seeing anything I can rebut there. Everything you said I did is correct, and the only thing I disagree with is finding it odd. If someone calls something serious, I am not going to assume they mean something else, I am going to assume they are telling the truth. Therefore, it's scummy enough for a lynch. Not seeing a problem here.

If that's you're response to
"I can see no increased scum motivation to call for something anti-town and completely unrealistic on page 1 and I tend to treat is at a null in itself, but he holds on to this as a serious scumtell for 10 pages (probably still does?)."
then this is a "is too!" - "isn't!" response and I'll continue to see a problem.

I symphathize with townhunting.

As for le chat, I'm still suspicious but given he's still V/LA (I know from a different game) and given we have a lot more time, the urgency is gone.

want you to post more about le chat though, you haven't given thoughts yet (except the sentiment yesterday before deadline of I agree with Magnus, le chat lynch all the way).

[Fishythefish]

Not discriminating between the 6 scummiest players is very unhelpful, and the comments he does make about them are more or less alignment neutral. SC does say that he tends to go on town reads rather than scum reads these days, but at this stage in the game that's pretty much totally useless - and "protown gut read" is an immensely easy read to have on someone (noone is really going to object, most of the time).

2) The suggestion that it's somehow ineffective is pretty ill considered. If I'm right on those reads and successfully narrow down the possibly scum list to 6 people, that's a powerful weapon in hitting scum, especially on D1 when it's so hard to read people. I'm pretty sure it's better than if I was looking at scumtells, at least.

This 2) was pretty much a direct response to what I said. And to an extent, you are right. Solid town reads do a lot to increase your chances of voting scum if you are town - and in that sense they are helpful. However, where they really fail is giving us something to judge you and your vote by. If you post saying "A, B, C and D are likely town. Vote: Someone else", then you are totally at liberty to pick anyone who isn't scum with you. I totally sympathise with you that town reads are easier and more consistently good than scum reads - I have exactly the same issue - but declaring your scum reads is what makes your vote your responsibility, and avoiding doing this is antitown. It also serves to make building wagons practically an impossibility - noone is going to follow you on the basis of town reads on other players (at this stage). PoE scumhunting is an excellent tool late in the game, but for now putting out townreads is unhelpful and isn't going to catch any scum.

My basic problem with your playerslot it that is has shunned conflict and controversy pretty consistently throughout the game, in what I feel is a scum-keeping-their-head-down kind of way, and done little that looks like it is geared towards lynching scum today. I think your summary giving a few strong town reads, a few weak ones and no scum reads is very consistent with that.

Ongoing games in which you are unconfirmed are both something we can't discuss, and pretty bad evidence for this being townie-SC play. Please tell me if a game in which this playstyle is evident finishes with you town.

[Amished]

So much for the night phase making this more active. Sending out prods to those who need it.

Chamber, Kairyuu, le Chat and Sajin have been prodded.

[Percy]

I was pretty sure Ray was town and pushed pretty hard to save him, noone listened and c'est la vie, but that shows a very clear read that I pushed hard for - accusations of sitting on the fence shouldn't really apply.

I think the point is that you were pushing hard on a town read, but had no strong scum reads to offer as an alternative. You offered up le Chat, but as I said, your comment at the beginning of today didn't even mention le Chat. He may very well be V/LA, but it certainly seemed like you weren't interested in pursuing that line of investigation today.

I think the issue is further compounded by the reason for magnus' vote, which you agreed with - magnus was essentially arguing that le Chat was jumping on a wagon on someone he new to be town (wagon analysis), and today you're arguing that we shouldn't be analysing the wagon. This appears to be a glaring contradiction, and I don't think his V/LA is enough of an explanation for your stance on this.

So please explain why le Chat deserved your vote yesterday, but wasn't suspicious enough to ask questions of today.

You thought it was significantly scummy to ignore it when you thought Rosso had ignored it. Why, seeing as the le Chat comment was clearly an intentional parallel as opposed an inadvertent example of the scumtell Rosso talked about?

It was an intentional parallel, but Rosso claimed that whoever said that was scum. le Chat called his bluff, and I thought Rosso had just pretended like it never happened. It goes back to the original point I was making with Rosso - that he would use strong rhetoric to back up his points in any given post, but had no desire to remain consistent or accountable.

I symphathize with townhunting.

So do I, it's a great thing to do while scumhunting. Does this mean you sympathize with SC's townhunting?

[Kairyuu]

/prodded

Rereading in an attempt to get back into this game.

vote: chamber

in the mean time.

[Amished]

Serial: Any idea on the timeframe of le Chat's V/LA?

[chamber]

/prodded

Rereading in an attempt to get back into this game.

vote: chamber

in the mean time.

<3

[VP Baltar]

@le Chat: Can you link me a game on MS where you were scum, and one where you were town?

I can help you with the scum game (since we are waiting on him for V/LA). He was scum in my recently modded Open 166.

townies can't co-ordinate their opinions like the scum can, so one scum making a convincing argument for one interpretation may bring the other townies along. Also, handing the responsibility for the accuracy of your reads and your feelings about the game over to group consensus is kinda weird.

I think this is a much more succinct and clear way of saying what I was trying to point out before.

My wagon has come up with surprising veracity.

I'm not sure if veracity means what you think it means here. If it does, can you explain this statement to me better because I don't understand it.


Chamber, after needing to be prodded I really hope you can at least give us a little bit of effort more than <3. There was nothing else you wanted to comment on?

[chamber]

@le Chat: Can you link me a game on MS where you were scum, and one where you were town?

I can help you with the scum game (since we are waiting on him for V/LA). He was scum in my recently modded Open 166.

townies can't co-ordinate their opinions like the scum can, so one scum making a convincing argument for one interpretation may bring the other townies along. Also, handing the responsibility for the accuracy of your reads and your feelings about the game over to group consensus is kinda weird.

I think this is a much more succinct and clear way of saying what I was trying to point out before.

My wagon has come up with surprising veracity.

I'm not sure if veracity means what you think it means here. If it does, can you explain this statement to me better because I don't understand it.


Chamber, after needing to be prodded I really hope you can at least give us a little bit of effort more than <3. There was nothing else you wanted to comment on?

I was following the whole time I wouldnt have gotten prodded if I had anything I wanted to say.

[SerialClergyman]

Serial: Any idea on the timeframe of le Chat's V/LA?

reading and posting, but before I forget I haven't seen a post from him in about a week in any of the other two games I'm in with him, one of which has already seen him replaced.

[SerialClergyman]

VP - I was just wrong on the definition of veracity. I thought it meant something like 'aggressive speed'.. who knows why. Fail word usage

I think the point is that you were pushing hard on a town read, but had no strong scum reads to offer as an alternative. You offered up le Chat, but as I said, your comment at the beginning of today didn't even mention le Chat. He may very well be V/LA, but it certainly seemed like you weren't interested in pursuing that line of investigation today.

I think the issue is further compounded by the reason for magnus' vote, which you agreed with - magnus was essentially arguing that le Chat was jumping on a wagon on someone he new to be town (wagon analysis), and today you're arguing that we shouldn't be analysing the wagon. This appears to be a glaring contradiction, and I don't think his V/LA is enough of an explanation for your stance on this.

Well, there's a few points here.

1) Wagon analysis and looking at le chat's motivations for joining the wagon are not the same thing. I disagree with magnus' theory that most or all of the scum are on the wagon. I DO agree that le chat's vote was pretty poor. It came at the end of a hiatus, to the dismissal of his previous suspicions and put his target at L-1 with comparitively less

It's post 484 that really shows what I mean - almost zero reason to switch from someone else and place an L-1 vote.

2) Having said that, I don't have a huge pinging scumread on le chat, just seems like he's the most likely. The reason why it was imperative yesterday and not so much today is that yesterday we looked like we were 2 days out from lynching a townie. At that point, my town read was such that I'd take a lynch of about half of the other players in the game. Now it's less vital to push hard, and more can be made out of what we have.

Another, less good, reason is that I know he's not around to reply. But that's just justifying laziness.

VP Baltar - why no comment on the case against me and my response apart form the 'veracity' thing?

[VP Baltar]

VP Baltar - why no comment on the case against me and my response apart form the 'veracity' thing?

It was late last night and reading over things, I didn't feel I had any really original ideas to add to the discussion. If you want my opinion, however, I think that townhunting is a good thing, but you have to be scumhunting at the same time. It's well and good to eliminate players, but at the end of the day someone has to be lynched. You can't really coast to endgame without taking stances in my opinion (even if you end up being wrong a couple of times).

Now, does that make you scum? Not necessarily. If you are modeling your play after Xyl, then you should also know that he gets lynched a lot as town for playing that way. Since you have no completed games where you have put this mode of hunting into effect, it is difficult to determine which alignment it is coming from in you, though I'd tentatively lean town at this point I think.

Right now, however, I'd like to

Vote: chamber

.
I want to hear your stances on the SC and le Chat wagons pronto.

[chamber]

I have as many votes as Sc now, and more than le Chat, I hardly think 2 and 1 votes respectively constitue wagons.

tbh I don't have strong reads on either. If I had to vig one right now I'd probably choose le Chat. The only town read I have in the game atm is of you.

On why I think town hunting + poe is flawed: You have no way to check your hypothesis before you are f'ed. When you scum hunt you lynch who you think is scum and are right or wrong, but when you townhunt and use poe you lynch from a group that could be town or mafia and offers no confirmation of you 'town' reads untill its often too late.