Open 163 (Jungle Republic)- Game Over before 835

[Shotty to the Body]

I linked it in the original post but have at it again. here

[Nikanor]

I'm too lazy to look through 26 pages to find (or possibly miss) something. Give me iso numbers. It's your evidence, after all.

[DTMaster]

@Nik

1. With the recent flips it's time to take on a new angle for the seer. Peace, and Kill-kill has demonstrated that we have/had very scummy town playing in this game. You outlined basically the issue we have at the moment:

If you appear townie then you are less likely to be investigated. If the seer has been investigating what appears to be obv scum targets, then the results are useless in clearing people from wolf (but not mafia) if they are getting cross killed. If this is wolf-Hohum starting a bussing himself over, we should run with this.

@Shotty
I see what you mean by crosshunting now.

[ThAdmiral]

Didn't realize I wasn't voting.

I have a strange and powerful feeling that scott is scum but don't really have anything to back it up other than the voting patterns.

Other than that I tend to agree that hasdfgas basically must be scum. Wish washiness and semi-lurking all game added to the bad voting history.

Vote: hasdfgas

[DTMaster]

L-1: claim and scumlist if you are town please.

[Shotty to the Body]

In that game we have ISOs 52, 61, 67, and 69. Note you replaced in late and you didn't have an inactive partner for as long as Hohum was so the numbers aren't as high, but the correlation is there and despite you saying that "townies aren't always right" you still haven't refuted the points peace listed besides telling us the werewolf is our friend which he clearly isn't now that we've found one, probably two mafia, the wolf's usefulness has expired and we should lynch him to preserve town numbers, we can lynch Cow the next day and not lose an extra townie over it.

[Nikanor]

That's weak, Shotty. For those of you who care, here are quotes from the iso posts Shotty is talking about:

Mod: Can we get a replacement on murdock_? He hasn't posted in 13 days.

Thirteen days. I'm asking for a replacement on someone after thirteen days of nonposting, and Shotty is trying to use it to support his 'scumtell'.

We really need to hear more from shotty.
We really, really need to hear SOMETHING from Hayker.

Hayker replaced murdock_ on the 15th of July, and that post I made was on the 19th. Before I made that post, Hayker had basically only come in to say that his dog died, so he wasn't going to be able to post often. Hayker posted once more on the 23rd before being replaced by Locke.

@Mod: Prod Hayker please. It's been five days today since his last post.

That was on the 28th. Hayker ended up being replaced after he didn't pick up his prod.

Day three cannot end without Locke posting something.

I assume this is the quote Shotty was referring to. I said this because we had nothing of content from that playerslot at all on day two or three.

All in all, the point Shotty is trying to make is ridiculous, because I would have done the same thing in that game were I a townie.
And to be honest, if I were werewolf, I wouldn't have killed peacesells. He was probably going to be lynched the next day anyway, and his death implicated me somewhat, which is probably what the real wolf was going for.

[hasdgfas]

Didn't realize I wasn't voting.

I have a strange and powerful feeling that scott is scum but don't really have anything to back it up other than the voting patterns.

Other than that I tend to agree that hasdfgas basically must be scum. Wish washiness and semi-lurking all game added to the bad voting history.

Vote: hasdfgas

mhm, been an awful game for me.

Well, I got nothing better to do, let's see how this goes.

I'm the wolf. If you lynch me, town will have to lynch right twice to win. I'd rather see the town win than lose to the mafia.

So there.

[Shotty to the Body]

Bah should've gone with my gut on that one, my bad Nik,

Unvote

.

[Nikanor]

I'm the wolf. If you lynch me, town will have to lynch right twice to win. I'd rather see the town win than lose to the mafia.

Not true.
With six people alive, we can lynch you today to put ourselves in lylo tomorrow with two mafia. After that, we have an expendable mislynch, thanks to the lack of nightkill.
If we mislynch today, we have to rely on your aim tonight to save us, which really doesn't make me feel too great considering I, a townie, am your largest suspect. Basically, from my point of view, we're already in lylo, since you'll kill me tonight anyway and give the mafia a majority. So really, we're not any worse off for lynching you.
That's not even taking into account the possibility of mafia fakeclaiming.

[hasdgfas]

I'm the wolf. If you lynch me, town will have to lynch right twice to win. I'd rather see the town win than lose to the mafia.

Not true.
With six people alive, we can lynch you today to put ourselves in lylo tomorrow with two mafia. After that, we have an expendable mislynch, thanks to the lack of nightkill.
If we mislynch today, we have to rely on your aim tonight to save us, which really doesn't make me feel too great considering I, a townie, am your largest suspect. Basically, from my point of view, we're already in lylo, since you'll kill me tonight anyway and give the mafia a majority. So really, we're not any worse off for lynching you.
That's not even taking into account the possibility of mafia fakeclaiming.

lynch me, 5 alive, 2 scum. you can't lynch wrong or mafia win. lynch right and you'll have a mislynch available, but you need to be right first.
and I never said I'd kill you. You're my favored lynch, but not necessarily my favored kill.

[DTMaster]

@Nik
You do realize that Has is obv dead regardless of what alignment he is. If he is mafia fake claiming the wolf will know and he'll NK has since we need to stop mafia scum from getting the majority. This is

especially true given if town mislynches on town today

Recall my earlier statement: an ideal wolf scenario is to have 1 town and 1 scum die during the day.

[Nikanor]

@DTM: True.

@Cow: Can we trust you to make town-directed kills? You've lost now, anyway. The least you can do is help us win.

@Seer: I have a feeling I know who you are, but you should claim now. Your use is pretty much limited to confirmed townie at this point. You should still investigate Cow tonight to make sure you get a guilty on him, but other than that, your purpose has met its end.

Unvote.

[hasdgfas]

@Cow: Can we trust you to make town-directed kills? You've lost now, anyway. The least you can do is help us win.

See, here's the thing. The mafia make up 1/3 of the current town. If I go by town-directed kills, the mafia have a good chance of being a big influence in that. However, if there's someone that seems to be trusted near-unanimously by the town, I won't kill them. But "town-directed" is a bit of a misnomer, from what I've found, as scum have significant influence on the kill in that case.

[Nikanor]

See, here's the thing. The mafia make up 1/3 of the current town. If I go by town-directed kills, the mafia have a good chance of being a big influence in that. However, if there's someone that seems to be trusted near-unanimously by the town, I won't kill them. But "town-directed" is a bit of a misnomer, from what I've found, as scum have significant influence on the kill in that case.

That's also true. We could put it to a vote, or get everyone to nominate their top two picks for a kill, but I suppose that wouldn't help much, either. What do you think would be the best, Cow? The seer should weigh in on this as well, seeing as how he can act as confirmed townie now.

[ThAdmiral]

Interesting situation. I can't decide what is more reckless - lynching him now or not lynching him!

I'd also like seer to claim. (Is it you, shotty?)

[Scott Brosius]

I AM SEER

In case this is some sort of mafia-gambit, I investigated Kill-kill, Nikanor, and Shotty, obviously none are wolves since I would have presented that. Under the assumption that Cow is telling the truth....

That means BOTH mafia members were on Toro's wagon.

Toro

: 5

(Nikanor, ThAdmiral, Shotty to the Body, DTMaster, Scott Brosius)

I don't think interactions the day Toro was lynched are going to be that helpful considering the wagon started pretty early in the day and stalled for awhile. It seems that once the wagon got going, mafia sacrificed Toro. Interactions from D1 and D2 will probably be more useful in determining the last members of the mafia. Toro got very defensive when the first 2 votes (Nik+ThA) were placed on him then he seemingly gave up.

Nikanor--- You said that DTM was obvdistancing from Hohum implicating him as a wolf. Now that we know that DTM is not a wolf do you think he is more likely town or scum?

ThA- Now that I am town, does that make DTM more likely to be scum as you claimed in your vote analysis (following Toro's vote patterns but both of us weren't mafia.

Shotty- You seemed to think Nikanor was hohum's partner. Now that we know Nikanor is not a wolf, do you think he is more likely scum or town?

[Nikanor]

I AM SEER

Yup, that's what my 'revelation' was about yesterday, hehe.

Nikanor--- You said that DTM was obvdistancing from Hohum implicating him as a wolf. Now that we know that DTM is not a wolf do you think he is more likely town or scum?

I'm not sure. Let me read Toro's play and I'll get back to you.

[Shotty to the Body]

I need to reread the first couple days before I get back to you Scott, btw Admiral what made you think I was the Seer?

[ThAdmiral]

I need to reread the first couple days before I get back to you Scott, btw Admiral what made you think I was the Seer?

Not anything in particular but I have you pegged as town so I figured there was a good chance you might have been the seer.

ThA- Now that I am town, does that make DTM more likely to be scum as you claimed in your vote analysis (following Toro's vote patterns but both of us weren't mafia.

Yes. I am thinking dtm/nik mafia by process of elimination.

[hasdgfas]

See, here's the thing. The mafia make up 1/3 of the current town. If I go by town-directed kills, the mafia have a good chance of being a big influence in that. However, if there's someone that seems to be trusted near-unanimously by the town, I won't kill them. But "town-directed" is a bit of a misnomer, from what I've found, as scum have significant influence on the kill in that case.

That's also true. We could put it to a vote, or get everyone to nominate their top two picks for a kill, but I suppose that wouldn't help much, either. What do you think would be the best, Cow? The seer should weigh in on this as well, seeing as how he can act as confirmed townie now.

I think everyone nominating their top 2 picks for a kill would help, because that still gives me some discretion while making sure that the town gets some input.

[Scott Brosius]

See, here's the thing. The mafia make up 1/3 of the current town. If I go by town-directed kills, the mafia have a good chance of being a big influence in that. However, if there's someone that seems to be trusted near-unanimously by the town, I won't kill them. But "town-directed" is a bit of a misnomer, from what I've found, as scum have significant influence on the kill in that case.

That's also true. We could put it to a vote, or get everyone to nominate their top two picks for a kill, but I suppose that wouldn't help much, either. What do you think would be the best, Cow? The seer should weigh in on this as well, seeing as how he can act as confirmed townie now.

I think everyone nominating their top 2 picks for a kill would help, because that still gives me some discretion while making sure that the town gets some input.

I agree with this.

Town: I assume we are going to let Cow live today then?

Unvote

[Nikanor]

Okay, so everyone should say their favourite kills for tonight, ordered from most to least favourite.
Don't forget the we have a lynch today as well.

My list is ThAdmiral, Shotty, DTM.
ThAdmiral's vote on Toro seems cheap and bandwagonny. I don't like it.
Shotty is neutral to me. He's done some scummy things, but he's also done some towny things. I can see him as ThAdmiral's partner.
I get town reads from DTM.

[Scott Brosius]

What changed your opinion on DTM?

[Nikanor]

The only reason I thought DTM was werewolf was his interactions with hohum D2. Since those have been proven to be most likely false, I now think DTM is town.