Mini 845 - The Amish Village (Game Over)

[Fishythefish]

Me too, because i"m being unconventional and change my mind, which apparantly = scum.

My main reason for voting you remain that you accepted a bad case at face value with no scrutiny, even after other players had pointed out flaws in it, and so far have done nothing to attempt to explain what you were thinking. I don't see where being unconventional or changing your mind comes into that.

Either way - there is a group of players that certainly contains scum that is pushing the 'scummy' fringe players. If there wasn't, we'd see more disagreement, more analysis of yesterday's play and more inter-group voting.

I think that you read a lot too much into these groupings. However the scum distribute, there is a sizeable chunk of Sajin's wagon which is townie. They are also voting for people in the other group. Why do you think the whole group's play is scum driven, when clearly most of the group is not scum?

I continue to disagree with the all-important inverted commas you put around "scummy" when describing yourself and Sajin.

[SerialClergyman]

When you say I've done nothing to explain my thinking - you're kidding, right?

As for inverted commas, they were there for Ray, they are there for me. 'Scummy' play that leads to town lynches gets the inverted comma treatment.

I'd much prefer to reed groupings rather than read language/meta scumtells.

Yes, there is more town than scum on the ray wagon, but there is a higher concentration of scum there. Plus we can rule out a few if my theory is correct, take out iamausername for voting someone not on the wagon and generally being a bit of a champion. Ojanen looks relatively town to me. The noose is closing in on that group, I think.

[Amished]

Mod Votecount 2-9

iamausername (2): magnus_orion; kairyuu
kairyuu (1): chamber
SerialClergyman (4): Sajin; FishytheFish; Percy; VP Baltar
Sajin (2): Herodotus; Ojanen
Herodotus (1): iamausername
FishytheFish (1): SerialClergyman

Not voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
11 days til deadline.


Herodotus is V/LA until Today
Kairyuu is V/LA intermittent until Monday, November 9th
Percy possible V/LA until tomorrow (Wednesday, November 4th)

[Percy]

Back again!

Percy, I answered the rolefishing stuff but I got my post clipped because it was talking about an ongoing game, even though everything I talked about had already been alignment flipped. Now that the /inv is finished, you'll see I get accused of rolefishing multiple times throughout the game and that's what I was specifically referencing when I made that comment.

Firstly, can you link to this "\inv"?
Still, that just doesn't cut it. If you rolefished in another game, you helped the scum. If people criticised you for it, then they were right to. For you to come into this game, do it again and try to claim meta defence is highly suspect.

If I was just being scummy and then self-excusing it in a cutesy way, I'd have no need to go over the top with it by adding in two completely superfluous things.

Any sentence that begins with "If I was scum..." or some variant is necessarily WIFOM, and this is no exception.

Also of note is that one of your mega town follow reads is Iam, who replaced le Chat, who you apparently thought was the most scummy person in the game yesterday. I don't see how you could have had such a dramatic shift in opinion from "lynch this person" to "I trust everything this person is saying" from the case that was presented against Fishy, which even Iam admits has flaws to it.

This.

Serial has responded, but I think the following explanation is more likely:

Serial replaced Artem, who had been getting some small amount of heat. By the time he replaced in, the RayFrost lynch was almost a certainty - he was on 5 votes (which was L-2) and no-one else was on any more than 1 vote, and from SC's le Chat votepost (his first content post) to deadline was about one and a half IRL days. As scum, he knew Ray would flip town, and so went along with the magnus case and against the case he knew would succeed in lynching a townie in a bid for townie points. His case was very weak if it was designed to pull five more votes in one and a half days - essentially the one comment of le Chat's which is just as easily dismissed using the VI defence he liberally applied to Ray's play.

When the next day dawned, there was no mention of le Chat - instead, there was a good deal of "told you so" and "lone voice of townie reason" talk. He's since followed the players he finds town, adopted a novel and (imo) scummy playstyle whilst ironically relying heavily on meta defence, rolefished, and suddenly and completely inverted his read on the le Chat slot.

I haven't seen anyone who thought that the Ray wagon would give us info ACTUALLY TRY TO USE THAT INFO. This is a Problem(tm).

This vvv

To be fair to Kai, he specifically says info from the

night

, and a) there was no kill to analyze, and b) he's been trying unsuccessfully to use night info by fishing for a roleblocker claim.

...but yes, Kai's lack of participation sucks (I know, yes, I am a black pot). Voting for info is bad even if there's a guarantee of info. Needs moar Kai posting.

you look for simple town tells which are a lot easier to find.

Scum can fake being town quite easily, and if you're looking for towntells, you're looking to be fooled by scum. Scumtells are harder to spot, but are much more valuable. Also, townreads are also just as vulnerable to confirmation bias as scumreads.

I think for me, the only information I have really used is that RF’s flip made me much less suspicious of magnus, who I felt was defending him in a scummy manner.

Scummy defence is scummy defence, independent of subsequent flips. I'm still not sold on magnus, and I'd appreciate some elaboration here.

Ray wasn't scummy, I said so explicitly before he was lynched and so did magnus. He had a typical lurky/VI mentality that isn't helpful but is more indicative of a poor or unmotivatedp layer than scum. But he's exactly the sort of lynch that is easy to hit, especially when there's not much of an alternative, because it's easy to paint the anti-town stuff as scummy. Now I have a feeling that perhaps Sajin is being used in the same way. Me too, because i"m being unconventional and change my mind, which apparantly = scum.

Even though you referenced the argument yourself, it was getting close to deadline and we didn't have any time left. Even if you think Ray was town, there were plenty of people (myself included) who thought that he had a good chance of flipping scum, and we had to lynch somebody.

You continue arguing that the scum are more likely to be on the wagon. I don't see any evidence for that. It would be just as advantageous for scum to not participate in the wagon, and carry on like you have been today.

Sajin constructed a case against you and was pretty evasive about it. What is your opinion of Sajin?

Also, Ojanen is voting Sajin, and you love everything she says. Do you disagree with her on the Sajin issue? (She also thought RF was somewhat scummy and a good lynch, by the way).

Needs moar chamber posting too. Reading his participation in ISO today gives me intense scumlurker vibes. Both he and Sajin have nudged the SC wagon in ambiguous ways, and it's this that is making me quite conflicted about my case on SC.

@chamber

: What did you learn from Kairyuu's meta? What is his town play like?
Also, who is scum?


Also, happy scumdays VP and Fishy!

[Herodotus]

I'm rereading day 2. Not all of this is necessarily relevant.

Page 23
With their talk about opposing alignments, a magnus/Kairyuu scumpair would be interesting (though it looks unlikely -- I don't have a scum read from either.)

Might go back and see if there were alternatives to the Ray wagon that got shut down (aside from the last ditch le chat effort.)

Any conclusions? I saw the alternative wagons as Fishy and le Chat, but I don't see that as a reason to suspect them.

In particular, if doubts are not continued to be expressed by a larger group of the town, a convenient little group is forming trying to call my wagon theory into doubt, which aligns perfectly with how I would perceive the scum to act at this point if my thinking is correct.

Did you follow up on this? Do you find anyone more suspicious as a result? What do you think of VP's response in 581 and Percy's response in 583?

Page 24
The first time I saw Fishy's post 580 it made me a little concerned that he was following along with a wagon he saw coming after Percy and I expressed suspicions of SC. But his earlier comments in 464 are consistent with his vote, even if I might attribute a couple of those points to Artem's playstyle.
I don't see why people (Ojanen 584, eg.) are commenting on Chamber switching the account that he uses. As soon as he revealed that Red Dye was an alt of his, the metas should merge, and it doesn't matter which account he uses to post. (Although one could argue that he revealed that he was Chamber due to early pressure over not discussing the first few pages.)
SC 585: Narrowing your focus is fine, though if the scum determine which of your 6 candidates will be lynched, it's not so useful. It's important to have some positive preferences for the lynch.
"alacrity"?

@Sajin:
What do you think of day 1?
I don't think you've answered Magnus's 646:

I asked for your opinion on le chat...

I've explained how the answer I would expect from a townie differs from the answer I would expect scum to make. Do you still believe that I intended to use any answer you gave as an excuse to vote you? Also, I don't understand:

I just have zero reason to give that information of my read of my predecessor. It is my viewpoint that all you could conclude off of it is distorted views of my alignment.

I think that your answer would have provided a non-distorted (though not 100% guaranteed correct) view of your alignment. If you're town, you have a good reason to want that.

[SerialClergyman]

magnus - if you essentially think I'm not saying anything revolutionary, you wouldn't be voting iamausername. According to my theory he's very unlikly to be scum. Are you still confident about his scumminess?

/inv = http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 69&start=0

Percy - I have very distinct views on the rolefishing issue - namely, I've never seen scum rolefish, I can't imagine how it would ever be successful and I don't think I was rolefishing either in /inv or here (although the circumstances were very different).

I had plenty of reasons to ask the question that I did, including the scum assuming roleblocker because they were told their kill was blocked or them assuming blocker because a hitman or the like failed their kill, ruling out doc. As it is, I think that that line of enquiry was a road to nowhere, but I think we're all big enough boys and girls that we can handle the question.

If you rolefished in another game, you helped the scum. If people criticised you for it, then they were right to. For you to come into this game, do it again and try to claim meta defence is highly suspect.

This is a particularly forceful attack given you haven't read the game. I correctly picked at a scum soft fakeclaim, and every time I tried to challenge him or the scum lover he was defending I was told I couldn't persue the line of questioning because I was rolefishing.

The situation isn't analagous, but it's typical of the argument that says any talk about roles is scummy when it is simply not, and any clinical assesment of rolefishing accusations I'm sure would find town far more often than scum.

Any sentence that begins with "If I was scum..." or some variant is necessarily WIFOM, and this is no exception.

Then I'm afraid you'll have to get used to it. I use this reasoning all the time with solid results. WIFOM has it's uses; (as you say, without it we can't consider scum motivation at all which is purely ridiculous.)

But worse than that is directly after telling me off for using WIFOM you point to how me defending a townie makes me scum. ><. Hypocrasy, thy name is Percy. I gave good reasons as to why Ray wasn't likely to flip scum, and was right - I'm not accepting this as a scumtell.

Scum can fake being town quite easily, and if you're looking for towntells, you're looking to be fooled by scum. Scumtells are harder to spot, but are much more valuable. Also, townreads are also just as vulnerable to confirmation bias as scumreads.

I disagree with just about all of this. There are a few things that scum rarely do because it's totally against their interests. It's possible that they will do them, but unlikely. Moving a lynch off of two arguing townies onto someone else, for example, is a massive town tell, far stronger than almost any scumtell you can give me. I find scumtells on the whole much harder to find and generally not as useful, they tend to get VIs or lazy people lynched. It's not that hard to type 'we' instead of 'the town' or not celebrate killing scum the next day. And town reads aren't as open to confirmation bias, because if someone scummy does something townie, you just dismiss that as them trying to look town. Whereas someone you're happy is town does somethign scummy and it doesn't feel good.

But even if you totally disagreed, I think there's little absolute there, it seems to me like a personal preference thing.

You continue arguing that the scum are more likely to be on the wagon. I don't see any evidence for that. It would be just as advantageous for scum to not participate in the wagon, and carry on like you have been today.

I disagree, although I think this is a much better point. The reason I disagree is that in my experience, scum push for mislynches. It's very hard to sit back and deliberately not vote someone universally scummy. For one, you have to come up with a reason why you aren't voting them, and are regularly called out as defending the scummy guy. Two, it goes directly against what you're trying to do - get the town to mislynch. If the scum stay off the wagon, that's a lot of townies set to lynch another townie.

In this case, a slow wagon, replacements, two 'scummy' (ie, ray plus MM) players etc etc, that all contributes, then the voting/accusation patterns of today totally bear that out. If there was a heavy scum presence on the wagon, I'd expect the wagon to move onto another non-wagon target as a homogenous mass. If there was little scum on the wagon, I'd expect there to be more confusion in the ranks of the wagon and possibly more talk about the wagon being scummy.

I saw the alternative wagons as Fishy and le Chat, but I don't see that as a reason to suspect them.

Before I go into my reading of the situation, I'd like you to answer why you don't find tht a reason to suspect them?

[SerialClergyman]

Also, while I'm still here, could I get your thoughts on Ojanen? Percy, Fishy, Hero, Kai? I'm looking for town, scum or neutral?

[magnus_orion]

magnus - if you essentially think I'm not saying anything revolutionary, you wouldn't be voting iamausername. According to my theory he's very unlikly to be scum. Are you still confident about his scumminess?

I don't think its revolutionary, and I think you're putting too much weight on it.
I think Iam hasn't dissuaded me from his scumminess.

[SerialClergyman]

Zzz.

Iam - convince magnus you're town so we can bust some scumheads open.

and... GO!

[Fishythefish]

Scummy defence is scummy defence, independent of subsequent flips. I'm still not sold on magnus, and I'd appreciate some elaboration here.

I think some defences read like a scum defending a townie for town points/buddying/whatever, and some read like a scum defending a scum because they really, really don't want him to die. The latter for me tend to be the more obviously bad cases - the former only really happen when they think the player in question isn't that scummy anyway. magnus's case read more like scum defending scum than scum defending town.

When you say I've done nothing to explain my thinking - you're kidding, right?

You have done plenty to explain your thinking on your groupings and where the scum are - although I still disagree with this. You have done little or nothing to explain why you went along with iaaun, which points of his you think are good or bad, and which points you thought were good or bad at various stages.

I'd much prefer to reed groupings rather than read language/meta scumtells.

Who are you referring to here?

Yes, there is more town than scum on the ray wagon, but there is a higher concentration of scum there. Plus we can rule out a few if my theory is correct, take out iamausername for voting someone not on the wagon and generally being a bit of a champion. Ojanen looks relatively town to me. The noose is closing in on that group, I think.

There may be a higher concentration of scum there. There's no reason to think that's certainly true. IMO, the fact that scum are marginally more likely to be on a townie mislynch than not is outweighed by the fact that the scummiest players were not on that wagon.

I really think that SC's "groupings" theory doesn't hold water as a realistic analysis of the game.

I don't think the presence of a small number of scum has made a lot of townies ignore a wagon and move on together to attack a new target. You've spotted an odd pattern in the voting and you've extrapolated that to a bad conclusion about where the scum are.

I also don't think the scum would have any particular motivation for voting only for people off the wagon. You can call the wagons on yourself and Sajin bad - but I think that your groupings theory is not relevant to this.

[Ojanen]

Serial, do I understand correctly that the group you are looking at currently is narrowed down to Fishy, Percy, Kai, Hero, VP?
I'm actually a little taken aback by this concentrated suspicion of Serial based on his last actions, I don't really see the scum motivation for the last turns - well, except perhaps the iam one, but that was uncharacteristically unwagon for scum. Will re-evaluate, post will be up later today.

[Ojanen]

unwagon

Errr. Unsubtle I meant. Dunno if that's real english either but anyway.

[Herodotus]

I saw the alternative wagons as Fishy and le Chat, but I don't see that as a reason to suspect them.

Before I go into my reading of the situation, I'd like you to answer why you don't find tht a reason to suspect them?

I didn't see the wagon on Rayfrost as a counterwagon against those wagons. Sometimes if one of the scum is in danger of being lynched, the scum will counterwagon a townie. In that case, the second largest wagon will be on a scum when a townie is lynched. But neither Fishy nor le Chat appeared too likely to be lynched IIRC.
If you have a different theory on why alternative wagons are likely to be on scum (other than people simply accurately finding scum, which isn't based on the wagons,) I would like to hear it. Or if you think there was a high chance of one of the alternative wagons reaching a lynch, why?

Also, while I'm still here, could I get your thoughts on Ojanen? Percy, Fishy, Hero, Kai? I'm looking for town, scum or neutral?

I don't think this was directed at me, but Oj and Fishy are neutral but leaning town, Percy looks town (though I'm not certain,) and Kai is neutral but leaning scum. I've seen Herodotus's role PM, so I'm certain they are town. I should mention that I've only superficially read anything after page 25, except Sajin's last couple posts.

[VP Baltar]

Who's intentionally not speaking about it? I think I've been ridiculously clear as to why I made that change in thought.

No, I wasn't accusing you of that. I was saying you were accusing the people on the Ray wagon of intentionally not speaking about the wagon. At least, that was the impression I got from your accusation.

Not at all. It's got nothing to do with 'people', it's got to do with 'people on the wagon' vs 'people off the wagon'.

Stop arguing semantics. It is pretty clear from my quote that I was referring to the same agument you are putting forth.

Is it not curious to you that everyone on the wagon voted someone off it and vice versa with only ONE exception?

Well, I'd have to look back at everyone else's voting patterns, but it's simply not true in my case. I have voted Kairyuu and Fishy today, who were on the wagon. I also stated that I felt if there were any scum on the wagon yesterday, it looks to me like Kairyuu and le Chat's (Iam) votes were the scummiest. So, no there was not only one exception and again I think this is a convenient argument for you to push now that the attention is on you.

There are distinct groups forming - somethign I didn't think was initially likely when the lynch was first made due to it being a default deadline lynch. As it is, the wagon from yesterday are banding together to look at non-wagoners and NO-ONE is looking at the previous day (I was always in favour of looking at this information) and wondering where it went wrong and what possible scum influence there was.

So, how many scum do you think were on the wagon yesterday then if they have enough influence to blind the rest of the wagon to hunting elsewhere?

It's certainly less convienient for me than say jumping on Sajin

Which you did before quickly recanting. I didn't see you saying he was so town when you voted him.

or being parto f the group thath ammered Ray in the first place.

Which you said you would, didn't you?

No - I think if I was scum there would have been a number of thigns i could ahve done to make this a lto smoother on me.

Hey, I remember this argument! I used it all throughout /in-vitational 4.

However, even if I totally conceeded the poitn to you it still wouldn't apply to this scenario where I have ample additional reasons to think iam is likely to be town.

I still do not understand your switch on his player slot and if I did it would go a long way toward me thinking you were more town. The order of events was this: 1)You say le Chat is scum--->2)Iam replaces in--->3)Iam posts a largely fallacious case against Fishy---> 4)You say he is town that has "solved" the game.

After the fact you said his response to Fishy's attack on his case made you think he was town. Now you are saying that it was because the rest of those on the Ray wagon are not attacking the Ray wagon and he is, therefore he's town. What I want to know is what logic or thought process or tarrot cards happened between parts 3 and 4 to make you think he was town. The switch defies logic.

Also, happy scumdays VP and Fishy!

Thanks! It's good to be one finally.

I don't see why people (Ojanen 584, eg.) are commenting on Chamber switching the account that he uses. As soon as he revealed that Red Dye was an alt of his, the metas should merge, and it doesn't matter which account he uses to post. (Although one could argue that he revealed that he was Chamber due to early pressure over not discussing the first few pages.)

Well I think the argument they were making was that there was some disparity between his accounts, and the exact point you are making in the parenthesis. Or that he was willfully not explaining himself after the pressure came and was using the account switch as an excuse for it.

[SerialClergyman]

Very late, just wanted to point out that this...

Well, I'd have to look back at everyone else's voting patterns, but it's simply not true in my case. I have voted Kairyuu and Fishy today, who were on the wagon. I also stated that I felt if there were any scum on the wagon yesterday, it looks to me like Kairyuu and le Chat's (Iam) votes were the scummiest. So, no there was not only one exception and again I think this is a convenient argument for you to push now that the attention is on you.

..forgets the vote on chamber that you started this day with. It's true that since then you've moved on but I was looking at a more immediate snapshot.

More tomorrowwww....

[SerialClergyman]

And happy belated scumday.

[iamausername]

Zzz.

Iam - convince magnus you're town so we can bust some scumheads open.

and... GO!

OK. I'm town!

Now let's lynch Hero.

[Herodotus]

Page 25
[off-topic]Hmm... any given player is more likely to be town than scum, so I don't find it surprising that you're often right when you call someone town.[/off-topic]
Kairyuu 611:
Anything else to say about le Chat?
Why call for someone to claim? If a RBer might claim because they believe they blocked a scum kill, they're in the best position to decide.
My gut doesn't like your approach to Chamber here.

Page 26
Percy 627: I find the reasons for suspecting SC here compelling, other than possibly the issue of wagon analysis vs. looking at le Chat's reason for voting, where I can that you might be taking past each other.
SC 628:
There was little chance of Rayfrost not being lynched. Your calling him town was not going to prevent a mislynch. Either you are scum, and you did it for townie points (which you are now flaunting,) or you are town, and just happened to read him correctly despite some suspicious behavior.
The speed of your wagon was a bit surprising, yes, but do you disagree with the arguments made about you? To counter it primarily by calling attention to your townie points is odd. You may not be able to tell us what Artem was thinking, but you can defend his actions that Fishy mentioned in post 580.
Yes, Kairyuu-scum could get a townie RB to claim, and then decide it's not game breaking. Or make a fakeclaim to neutralize the information gain. When the RB is NKed, that wouldn't automatically implicate the person who asked them to claim.
I don't like Kairyuu 629 at all:
You're backtracking from a huge declaration, that the claim would lead directly to a gamebreak.
Handing us one scum on a silver platter? There's virtually no way you could be more aware of that than the RB themself would be, if there is one.
The fos on Percy is reaching. I don't think he was arguing that a RB claiming was a bad idea; the bad idea was you directing a PR to claim.
Other than the fos, Kairyuu seems interested only in his claim request at this point, not in scumhunting.
Ojanen asks some good questions. Sajin is incredibly evasive toward her and Magnus. Asking for your opinion on a player is not strong-arming a lynch. Sajin is misrepresenting a lot of players.

[Sajin]

@Sajin:
What do you think of day 1?
I don't think you've answered Magnus's 646:

I asked for your opinion on le chat...

I've explained how the answer I would expect from a townie differs from the answer I would expect scum to make. Do you still believe that I intended to use any answer you gave as an excuse to vote you? Also, I don't understand:

I just have zero reason to give that information of my read of my predecessor. It is my viewpoint that all you could conclude off of it is distorted views of my alignment.

I think that your answer would have provided a non-distorted (though not 100% guaranteed correct) view of your alignment. If you're town, you have a good reason to want that.

False. Scum would like to falsely have someone believe they are town. If I believe the information is irelevent and null, then why should I provide material you could only use to misrep? You believe it would be a non distorted view? I believe your view of my view would be incredibly distorted.

As a side note do you believe in Lynch all Liars? I am trying to determine if you just have incredibly different mafia theory beliefs then myself or are trying to intentionally miss rep here.

Is refusing to answer a question that you believe can only be used to misrep oneself scummy?

I figure the only reason I am being asked about day 1 stuff is to comment on rosso carne's play. Since the entirety of questions I have been asked has been about yesterday... I find it interesting that you sparked it and several others jumped on and then you call me on that. So no. All of those questions are a result of you wanting material to misrep me with. So I will focus on today and current arguments with my later posts.

How have I misrepresented "a lot of players"? Can you explain this please?

[Fishythefish]

Things to do tomorrow: reread Hero.

[Herodotus]

False. Scum would like to falsely have someone believe they are town. If I believe the information is irelevent and null, then why should I provide material you could only use to misrep? You believe it would be a non distorted view? I believe your view of my view would be incredibly distorted.

It's not really up to you to decide what others consider relevant to forming an impression of your alignment.
I believe that your reaction would have provided myself and possibly others with good insight into your alignment, and I've stated a theory about why. You believe otherwise, but you're just making an assertion about a hypothetical situation.
To put it more straightforwardly, do you believe that I would have reached an incorrect conclusion about your alignment from your answer to my question? Why?
If that's not what you meant, then how would my view of you be distorted? I don't understand.

[Herodotus]

As a side note do you believe in Lynch all Liars?

No, but I expect anyone who lies to have a good justification they can give as soon as the lie is discovered. I believe in FoS All Liars.

I figure the only reason I am being asked about day 1 stuff is to comment on rosso carne's play.

No, right now I see little point to that. I asked you about day 1 because so far the only thing I can find that you've said about anything that happened on day 1 is:

@Magnus- Specific questions please. le_chat was talkative and made odd questions about fence sitting.

which was itself a sidestep of the question Magnus was asking.
As I mentioned above, you still have not provided your read on le Chat, despite your semi-defense of him in post 639. (In my experience, that alone wouldn't make you scum. In one game, I refused to differentiate whether my read on another player was "neutral" or "town", and was mislynched in part because of that.) But it's not the only question you've refused to answer, which is bad.

Since the entirety of questions I have been asked has been about yesterday...

Wait, what? Just doing a search for your name suggests that most questions directed at you have been about things you've said. Today.

How have I misrepresented "a lot of players"? Can you explain this please?

Why are multiple people strong arming a lynch for Le_chat? Can someone post me a case rather then not quoted vague referenced meta and referencing his one "this vote is so I am not fence sitting post".

I don't think anyone was, or is, strong arming a lynch on le Chat.

[SerialClergyman]

M'okay, I'm answering this iamausername thing once and for all because it's becoming a red herring.

1) My scum read on le chat wasn't strong at all, as I've said since the start I'm focusing on town reads and he was simply the worst in my 'ok to lynch' category.
2) Having someone replace in and post a committed case is a town tell. I thought the case was stronger than its getting credit for and showed genuine signs of having reread and wanting to find scum. I doubt scum would go to the effort of doing what he did.
3) His first vote was someone on the wagon yesterday.
4) iam's meta is in line with his town meta.
5) I generally approve of votes when someone posts a long, solid case. It means it isn't lost to indifference and adds more pressure. I even said something along the lines of i was voting to add my weight to the accusation.
6) Everything iam has done since then has been more town tells, particularly his reaction to the defence of his case and I think his move onto Hero has merit.

Onto further irritations:

You're basically saying, "why isn't everyone on that wagon highly suspicious of one another?", which is a somewhat convenient stance to take now that the pressure is more focused on you.

SC wrote:
No - I think if I was scum there would have been a number of thigns i could ahve done to make this a lto smoother on me.

Hey, I remember this argument! I used it all throughout /in-vitational 4.

When you specifically accuse me of acting in a manner that is convinient, then I show how I haven't done that an in fact have taken stances that are inconvienient for me as scum, you can't then come full circle and claim I'm trying to magic up a defence out of nowhere. It was a direct response to the point you were making.

And jsut because you used a similar argument in a different game as scum doesn't mean the argument itself is flawed, just that it's a) not foolproof and b) was used deliberately misleadingly.

There may be a higher concentration of scum there. There's no reason to think that's certainly true.

Arg, this quote so closely echoes exactly what scum said in response to my theory in the last game. I also had an elaborate theory last game with assumptions others weren't necessarily prepared to take on board, but it correctly narrowed down 2 scum into 3 playerslots. I mention this because the symmetry in your objection is noteworthy.

Obviously I can't say it for certain. But nothing is certain and we're all going with what seems best to us. Unless you can give me a reason why my reasoning is poor, I'm sticking with it.

Sorry, I wasn't making myself clear - I'd like all of Hero, VP, fishy, kai and Percy to give me your thoughts on Ojanen. I'm not sure about her posts this game and I'd like a different perspective. I'm working on who I can eliminate from my suspect pool to get to a point where I'm really happy lynching. I'm happy eliminating Iam from that pool but that's it so far.

Kai - come back.

Magnus - convinced about Iam after that stirring appeal?

Hero - re: Fishy's previous wagon. I see no reason to discount the information. There was a point where the wagons were competing, and then the ray frost wagon took off. It's not quite the same as a massive derailing, but it's worthwhile keepign in mind.

--Mod edit--
Fixed some quote tags, I think they're right now.

[SerialClergyman]

--Mod edit--
Fixed some quote tags, I think they're right now.

<3 <3 <3

Amished gets 10 points.

[Fishythefish]

There may be a higher concentration of scum there. There's no reason to think that's certainly true.

Arg, this quote so closely echoes exactly what scum said in response to my theory in the last game. I also had an elaborate theory last game with assumptions others weren't necessarily prepared to take on board, but it correctly narrowed down 2 scum into 3 playerslots. I mention this because the symmetry in your objection is noteworthy.

What would you expect a townie to say when you come up with a theory which you are treating as much stronger than they believe it is?

Obviously I can't say it for certain. But nothing is certain and we're all going with what seems best to us. Unless you can give me a reason why my reasoning is poor, I'm sticking with it.

I think for me, the problem is fundamentally this:
The general group scumhunting argument goes something like this:
1. There are probably lots of scum out of these 7 players - at least 2, say.
2. Of these 7, these 3 players look good.
3. So these 4 players are each extremely likely scum.
My problem is that the second point here has to influence the first. It's ridiculous to treat the number of scum on Ray's wagon as independent from the scumminess of 3 of the players on it. When you make statements like "the noose is closing on this group", they really grate with me - I don't think that each successive person on the wagon you clear should affect the scumminess of the rest (except insofar as it makes everyone in the game a little more likely scum).
In other words: if you think scum were more likely to vote RF, you should be more suspicious of everyone on his wagon. But the natural reaction to clearing people on his wagon is to weaken your hypothesis that scum voted RF, not to become more certain about the remaining players.

Sorry, I wasn't making myself clear - I'd like all of Hero, VP, fishy, kai and Percy to give me your thoughts on Ojanen. I'm not sure about her posts this game and I'd like a different perspective. I'm working on who I can eliminate from my suspect pool to get to a point where I'm really happy lynching. I'm happy eliminating Iam from that pool but that's it so far.

Noted, will do soon.

Hero - re: Fishy's previous wagon. I see no reason to discount the information. There was a point where the wagons were competing, and then the ray frost wagon took off. It's not quite the same as a massive derailing, but it's worthwhile keepign in mind.

A note on my wagon: I think it had far less behind it than MM/RF's, and was based partially on lurking. I don't think it was ever a serious competitor for a lynch.