Mini 872: Mafia in Belgrove - That's All Folks

[Netopalis]

...or unless his partners were Havingfitz and Walrus Helmet, in which case he might have gotten no help tonight. But I'm leaning towards going after Kikuchiyo, as I think the case is much stronger....I want to hear from everybody, but as of right now, I'm convinced to the point that I would feel confident in making a vote.

[crypto]

Neto, I feel like you've been awfully swingy with your reads this game. You seem to follow other players' noses way too much.

[kikuchiyo]

That's the second time you've implied that I have inside knowledge---not letting it go this time. If I were scum and gyro were the town vig, why would I try so hard to defend him from lynch?

That's not what I'm implying, but to answer, you could defend him to gain town points. Hoever, that's not my point. As town, you should be suspicious of anyone who goes out of there way to defend you as if they know your alignment.

As for your gyro-scum-reasoning:

1. Not from my point of view, but just because I think Gyro's wrong about crypto being scum doesn't mean that gyro is scum. If anything, claiming that target is something scum wouldn't do.
2. Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. Mafia roleblockers are in tons of games these days.
3. Which makes him MORE likely to be town, not less, as claiming vig when you're not capable off generating a second NK is not good play (for reasons which should be obvious).
4. Regrettable, but also consistent with him being a first-time player.
5. See four.

1. Opinions are like assholes.
2. Occam's Razor. Do we have any other evidence of a roleblocker? No. Do we have any evidence that supports his claim? No. Were we convinced enough before the claim that he should be lynched? Yes. Is his claim the main reason he was not lynched? Yes. Do we have any evidence that supports his claim? No.
3. WIFOM. It seemed to work fine for him if he is scum, so your thought process is bunk.

Wait. Wait. Seriously? You're just going to play the newbie card TWICE?

Lastly, your major reason for wanting to lynch gyro yesterday, the "we should lynch him today so that we don't have to lynch him tomorrow" thing is what I was talking about when I said your previous reasons no longer apply.

Nice misrepresentation. That was only part of the reasoning offered and it was only offered to those who refused to see the inherent scumminess of his play. To be clear: Had he claimed vanilla I would have found his play to match up. He does not match up to vig and his breadcrumb was shit.

[Netopalis]

Really? I disagree. I think that I've been on the cutting edge and have been a productive member of all wagons that I have been on. Yes, I've jumped around from suspicion to suspicion a fair bit, but that's my nature. I commonly consider arguments from all viewpoints and paint them in their best light, then in their worst light to see if they hold up. The case against Gyro is a fairly weak one, but the case against Kikuchiyo is fairly strong.

[kikuchiyo]

Lynching me most likely loses for town. If thats how you guys feel then I would call for massclaim. There is not much more I can say in my defence. We seem to be in a communication spiral that is going nowhere but down. If the scumteam is Raskol/Neto/Crypto then I would have to hand it to you guys.

If someone can explain the scum otivation for my hammer I am all ears. It obviously incurred a fair amount of suspicion and so would not have been good scum play. You are using this line of reasoning to believe Gyro, so I don't see why it should n't apply here to me as well.

Neto: How does my play in this game compare to my play in our previous game?

[Raskol]

Meh, wish we could have heard from walrus. He was just reading this forum and then he logged off without posting. He's not in any other games, either.

Hope havingfitz gets in here, at least. After those two have chimed in we should no lynch. I don't want to lynch anyone without another NK first.

[Raskol]

So, in light of that, I'd like everyone's next post to be either a vote for no lynch or an explanation of why you oppose a no lynch. This should continue until no-lynch is at "L-1" and then we'll wait for havingfitz and walrus to say something before we "anti-hammer". That's what I'd like to see happen at this point.

[crypto]

Re: Neto. Shrug.

2. Occam's Razor. Do we have any other evidence of a roleblocker? No. Do we have any evidence that supports his claim? No. Were we convinced enough before the claim that he should be lynched? Yes. Is his claim the main reason he was not lynched? Yes. Do we have any evidence that supports his claim? No.

No. This is real Occam's Razor. Did the town have a power role? Yes: jailer, and possibly vigilante. Do towns with (multiple) power roles usually have to deal with roleblockers? Yes. Would it be more complex to build a setup that follows a different philosophy? Yes. QED.

Unvote. Vote: walrus helmet.

(I expect to be yelled at for expecting him not to have a life.)

[walrus helmet]

Once again doing catchup for all these posts.

My thoughts on the end of the day and the night:

I really don't like kikuchiyo's hammer. Felt like she was lying in wait for L-1. However I disagree about trying to shut up Rhinox. That's far fetched and relies on too many assumptions, I think it's much more plausible that she was just going for a quick hammer.

That said, let's do a no lynch today.

Divorced from suspicions and scum reads, this seems like the best statistical shot that we have.

Netopalis looks like town because I think the coincidence of his lurker lynch slant in this game with his MD thread about kicking lurker ass is legitimate.

Could you clarify this, please? Also, define "MD" (just as a definition for a clueless newbie).

Mega-FOS: kikuchiyo

(like, I wish I had two votes). WIFOM, my ass. Way to completely brush away 100% respectable accusations.

Neto brought up a wicked sick point about your hammer of Foilist. Earlier today I was thinking about the Rhinox night kill, and it was a

blatant

policy night kill—scum kill the pro-town replacement to ax out his point of view before he can unveil his reads in full. I hadn't connected it with your quick hammer, which also happened to ax out Rhinox's point of view. (Thanks for pointing it out, Neto.) Fits beautifully, no?

---

Netopalis, why do Gyro's posts look town to you.

---

Raskol, why Walrus Helmet?

Vote: Walrus Helmet.

Bang.

Why do you vote for me after wishing you had 2 votes for kikuchiyo? Netopalis asked you a similar question earlier but you didn't respond.

[walrus helmet]

Meh, wish we could have heard from walrus. He was just reading this forum and then he logged off without posting. He's not in any other games, either.

Hope havingfitz gets in here, at least. After those two have chimed in we should no lynch. I don't want to lynch anyone without another NK first.

(I expect to be yelled at for expecting him not to have a life.)

Sorry, I like to take my time when I read/write posts. Plus when I took a 30 minute break you guys practically filled up a whole nother page.

[walrus helmet]

So, in light of that, I'd like everyone's next post to be either a vote for no lynch or an explanation of why you oppose a no lynch. This should continue until no-lynch is at "L-1" and then we'll wait for havingfitz and walrus to say something before we "anti-hammer". That's what I'd like to see happen at this point.

Vote: no lynch

Statistically, the best shot.

[walrus helmet]

Re: Neto. Shrug.

2. Occam's Razor. Do we have any other evidence of a roleblocker? No. Do we have any evidence that supports his claim? No. Were we convinced enough before the claim that he should be lynched? Yes. Is his claim the main reason he was not lynched? Yes. Do we have any evidence that supports his claim? No.

No. This is real Occam's Razor. Did the town have a power role? Yes: jailer, and possibly vigilante. Do towns with (multiple) power roles usually have to deal with roleblockers? Yes. Would it be more complex to build a setup that follows a different philosophy? Yes. QED.

Unvote. Vote: walrus helmet.

(I expect to be yelled at for expecting him not to have a life.)

Sorry for the quadruple post.

Once again, you vote seemingly against your own argument.

[Netopalis]

Crypto, since you don't seem to like my earlier justification of my votes, here's a listing of my serious votes against players and the first times that I suspected them:

My serious votes:
Crypto (Oct 29) - At time, no votes. Justifications explained later in thread and independent of other suspicions.
Gyro (Nov. 3) - At time, no votes. Justifications explained in 3 posts which he gave meh responses to.
Malpa (Nov. 7) - At time, 2 votes. However, I had expressed sentiments againts him multiple times throughout the day and gave independent reasons for my vote.
Jester (Nov. 8) - Admittedly 4th vote. Yes, my decision was based on the arguments made by other people, but I was also strongly concerned about a deadline due to the lack of activity on day 1.
Foilist (Nov. 12) - At time of vote and first case posted, there was one vote or suspicious post against Foilist. That was largely due to a questionable post that he had made and was not accompanied by a strong case. Therefore, my case was independent of Raskol's lone vote.

[havingfitz]

Hello all.

I read the thread when I replaced in three days ago but I want to give it another quick refresh and catch up from when I went to bed last night and D4 began (and ~80 posts made!) before I give my thoughts.

Just wanted to check in.

[havingfitz]

OK...no need to introduce yourselves. A bit about me and where I am coming from. As my footer mentions, I am in the UK so my posting times will be 5-8 hours off sync of most of you. This is my 4th game and my 1st mini-normal (though I have since replaced into another mini-normal).

Now then...the no-lynch. Up till now I have always been against no-lynches. I do not see where they benefit the town. If someone can make the case clear how it helps I am more than happy to listen/consider. Assuming Raskol is correct and this game is at 5-3 town to mafia (I tried to find the normal setup for mini normals and could not, so I’m not sure if the standard is 2, 3, 4 mafia etc....) , there is a good shot of getting a hit on scum today. If we don’t lynch....scum get a free kill tonight and we go in to D4 at 4-3 with one less townie to help ID scum. As I type this the realization is hitting me that the odds of lynching scum are better in a 4-3 situation than a 5-3 situation...but I just have a hard time justifying what is essentially knowingly killing a townie in the hopes of getting better scum kill odds later. Also...couldn’t the scum just opt not to do the NK and we’d end up worst (or best?) case right where we are now? I would prefer to get it right today and go into D4 at 4-2 (again assuming Raskol’s breakdown is correct). Additionally...if there was going to be a no-lynch today, I don’t see the benefit in doing it without discussion? Isn’t discussion the way to build cases againt scum and increasing opportunities for a scum slip of the tongue? IMO longer days with more discussion benefit scumhunting. That said...if I am resoundingly offbase and the consensus dictates a no-lynch...please let me know. But I’d appreciate the clear logic for the NL as well (for my own information).

Right now everyone is a bit suspicious in my eyes but the people I am looking closest at are (in no particular order) are Gyro, Kiku, and Raskol. Reasons to follow.

And lastly...at the risk of pissing everyone off...I was recruited to help out with a Boy Scout camp out this evening so in about 90 minutes

I will be v/LA until tomorrow night (UK time).

If I can get another post in before I leave I will...otherwise I will try to get another post in tomorrow when I get back home before I call it a night. At the latest I should have posted more input by the time Sunday morning hits the States.

Cheers

[kikuchiyo]

After further review I think we may be looking at:

malpascp /havingfitz
Darkstrike_11 /Raskol
U.N. Owen/ Xvart

No case. No need. I don't like the way Raskol has been using grand assumptions in order to clear Gyro, but I can see Raskol scum/Gyro town. It makes sense in the way that if Gyro is town, then he is easily manipulated. I don't like the fact that Raskol is playing the "newbie" card for 40% of my case against Gyro. If Gyro is town(and most everyone seems to agree) then Raskol seems to be playing with inside knowledge.

No lynch gives us good mathematical odds, but it also allows a hypothetical three person scum team to have quite a bit of sway over town.

Neto: Seeing as how you are lower on my suspicion list, I would like to know why you are getting a scum read from me. Hellsing is over so we may talk about it. I was scum in that game and I thought I played rather well. Had I not been nk'd night one I think the scum team would have done much better. Not calling meta here, but you seemed to play rather well as town in that game. Do you find it at all odd that Raskol has been exhibiting this seriously long and drawn out defense of Gyro, starting even before he claimed vig?

[kikuchiyo]

Ebwop: In case you were wondering, the "no case, no need" is because it seems as though we are not lynching today. If I need to flesh any suspicions out I can, but I am not that good at building "case"s. I don't think we should be ignoring the original players posting and entirely supplanting our suspicions based around what their replacements have done. Anyhoo, I will have some time this weekend if need be.

[crypto]

Unvote.

Okay, time to kick ass and chew bubblegum. We are not racing to a lynch (or lack of) today. With 20/20 hindsight (ha), yesterday's speed and insanity and mis-lynch is kind of embarrassing. I'm hopefully going to do a bit of a reread when I get home and post some sort of analysis of the flow of the game, i.e., the bandwagons, suspicions, piggybacking, and so on. And we'll take it from there. I'm strongly opposed to a no-lynch, but regardless of that decision we

are

finding scum.

(Oh, and I really don't like Walrus' wagon on no-lynch, but I guess that's theory, so I'll just boohoo.)

RE: WALRUS HELMET

Yeah, I did ignore Netopalis. I remember seeing his question and being too lazy to respond. I voted for you because you've been my safe scum bet for some time now, even though I haven't had a case against you that would elevate you above a couple of other players in that respect. When I voted for you in that post where I mentioned wanting to vote for Kikuchiyo, I meant that I had a second vote so that I could vote for both of you at once. I wanted to (temporarily) expand the conversation to include you (as a potential interrogation target) without substantially distracting from the back-and-forth between Kiku and Raskol and the growing pile of crap around Gyro and all that. So I voted for you and counterbalanced it with a major FOS of Kiku.

However I disagree about trying to shut up Rhinox. That's far fetched and relies on too many assumptions, I think it's much more plausible that she was just going for a quick hammer.

Well, here's the deal. Scum love shutting up replacements as quickly as possible. Because replacements have yet to participate in the game, they are essentially aloof observers with little to no emotional baggage, so ideally their reads will be sharper than ours considering we've already spent time pointing fingers at each other, etc. Then there's the possibility that a replacement will simply catch something we overlooked, for whatever reason. So scum will want to knock them off, especially if they're known to be good at finding scum (I don't know if that applies to Rhinox; I've never read a game he's in), unless they're subbing for a really suspicious player.

That

is a popular mafia strategy. I do admit I can't off the top of my head make a convincing argument that that was the motivation for Kiku's hammer, but it's a funny coincidence that she did so relatively soon after he joined, and

before

he got many reads out. Granted, if I'm remembering it right, I was cheering on a lynch shortly after Rhinox started, so I'm also guilty of having been anti-information, albeit to a lesser degree because I didn't pull the hammer.

Could you clarify this, please? Also, define "MD" (just as a definition for a clueless newbie).

Loooooooooooooooooooooooooooool noooooooooooooooooooooooob. No, to be totally srs, Mafia Discussion, the sub-forum. Netopalis posted a thread about his frustration with chronic lurkers and either proposed or asked about actions that should be taken against them, or something like that.

Sorry, I like to take my time when I read/write posts. Plus when I took a 30 minute break you guys practically filled up a whole nother page.

Easy, Captain. I was mocking myself, not you.

[hr]50

quot;]Crypto, since you don't seem to like my earlier justification of my votes, here's a listing of my serious votes against players and the first times that I suspected them

No, I buy it.

---

Welcome to the game, Havingfitz. Who are your scum buddies?

---

Preview edit.

Not calling meta here, but you seemed to play rather well as town in that game.

This is a

non sequitur

and therefore a blatant appeal to emotion.

[kikuchiyo]

Granted, if I'm remembering it right, I was cheering on a lynch shortly after Rhinox started, so I'm also guilty of having been anti-information, albeit to a lesser degree because I didn't pull the hammer.

So the hammer is more guilty of a mislynch than the guy already on the wagon and repeatedly calling for a hammer? I disagree. You are just as culpable for the foilist lynch. If you recall, I wanted Gyro. This thought process makes you just as guilty as I of "shutting up" the replacement. Trying to push more blame onto me is not fair. You called more than once for a hammer. You made choo choo sounds. Don't be an ass. Be objective.

In regards to AtE: Call it what you will. If your mind is made up on my alignemnt then vote me and stop moving around hoping a wagon will start for you to push. If your mind is not made up then try reading my posts a little more closely and address the important things. Simply grazing and cherry picking things that could be considered scummy is poor town play at best.

[Netopalis]

Kikuchiyo: While I appreciate your positive comments, we both know that I played terribly on D1 of that game. I find meta reads to be largely useless in these games because I know that experienced players will be cautious about changing their play too much between games...Personally, I find little difference in the way that you played there and the way that you play in this game. That doesn't mean anything in my book.

I should also probably make a note about my thread about lurkerism in MD. That thread was NOT posted in response to THIS game. It was about Hellsing Mafia and 2 other games that I was in at the time (ongoing), in which players refused to lynch lurkers because they felt that they "might be town". Rather frustrating really.

[kikuchiyo]

Kikuchiyo: While I appreciate your positive comments, we both know that I played terribly on D1 of that game. I find meta reads to be largely useless in these games because I know that experienced players will be cautious about changing their play too much between games...Personally, I find little difference in the way that you played there and the way that you play in this game. That doesn't mean anything in my book.

I was referring to the entire game. I do disagree with you on your day 1 play, though. I thought you held your own well. Anyhoo, I'm not sure what to do at this point seeing as so many of you are questioning my alignment. You can't all be scum. I have obviously misplayed situations and my defense can only be wifom, however, I would like to point out that the case against me is wifom as well. But that may apply to every case in the game of mafia.

Vote: No Lynch

Lynching me is a loss. At least with no lynch we have a chance.

[Netopalis]

I wish I had a croissant right now, since I'm getting buttered up so much.....You're convincing me more and more of your scumminess. I'm torn, really - do we want to no lynch or no? I could definitely see a mafia plan for a no lynch....perhaps you're a godfather and are expecting a potential cop to investigate you, then stop the lynch tomorrow....

[kikuchiyo]

I wish I had a croissant right now, since I'm getting buttered up so much.....You're convincing me more and more of your scumminess. I'm torn, really - do we want to no lynch or no? I could definitely see a mafia plan for a no lynch....perhaps you're a godfather and are expecting a potential cop to investigate you, then stop the lynch tomorrow....

To further wifom: Why as godfather would I draw suspicion with the "quick" hammer yesterday? I haven't been on the block til today so I had no reason to "draw" an investigation. Also, the quickhammer is a good way to fend off being a nk target from scum and so can also be utilized by town power to ensure their own survival. Also, you would be implying that mafia has godfather

and

roleblocker. Unlikely unless we have a cop and Gyro is telling the truth. Town might even have another role against two mafia pr's considering Gyro's claim was "one-shot". Is there a standard for that distribution?

Not trying to butter you up. What else can I do but appeal to players sensibilities. It seems that no matter what I say to anyone I am simply being written off as scum. I have zero support in this game. The only card left in my hand is my role(whatever it is). I'd rather take my chances tonight and claim tomorrow.

[Symbol]

Neto, still, your actions in this game were consistent with your MD thread.

You are just as culpable for the foilist lynch.

No.

If you recall, I wanted Gyro.

Which makes it even WORSE. You quick-hammered someone despite really wanting another person dead? Ha. Haha. Hahahahahahahahaaaa.

Be objective.

Okay. I blame me for cheering on the lynch. I blame you to an infinitely greater degree for hammering on the basis that you were impatient despite not at all wanting a Foil lynch in light of your suspicion of Gyro. Ta-da!

In regards to AtE: Call it what you will.

Er, yeah. Your style is getting exponentially funnier with each new post. It was an appeal. Nice try.

If your mind is made up on my alignemnt then vote me and stop moving around hoping a wagon will start for you to push.

Unvote. Vote: kikuchiyo.

Woohoo!

Seriously, though. Now you're just OMGUSing me. Flail more, please.

[Faraday]

No lynch [3] (Raskol, Walrus helmet, Kikuchiyo]
Kikuchiyo [1] (crypto)

Not voting : [4] (havingfitz, xvart, gyro, Netopalis )

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.