Mini 872: Mafia in Belgrove - That's All Folks

[Raskol]

Wow, got two hypo-cops while I was writing that post. Good jorb.

[kikuchiyo]

They're not supposed to be obstructive. Assuming a standard setup there are three scum out of the three remaining players. Let's say Xvart is the cop. He obviously has two innocents. Xvart himself is also innocent. That leaves five. We have a 60% chance of hitting mafia (and I'm obvious town, duh). So cut the shit and do the thing. We can go into cruise control for the victory right now, but this assclownery is fudging it up.

You are assuming xvart is cop. You are also assuming his results. No lynch increases those odds from 60%, no?

[Raskol]

I just have a question for you though crypto: why does asking if the cop should give his results make xvart an obv-cop?

I mean, it's the kind of thing I hear people say all the time regardless of their role. Hearing you jump on such an innocent question, it almost makes it seem like you were looking for a cop.

[crypto]

Raskol, I'm clearly not the cop.

I'd take the risk that Xvart, who I have a rock-solid town read on, is lying in return for great odds at winning. Look at post 825. Scum don't plant stuff like that. I'm pretty sure no one was interested in lynching Xvart. If he were scum, he wouldn't have wormed his way into this situation and then refused to reveal his reads. As for him just fake-claiming as town (which is an intensely stupid move in the first place)—just, no. This is getting ridiculous.

Now, if he just completely didn't meant to imply what we all read out of it, then that's a different story, but I'd rather he'd tell the truth, for reasons given, than try to blend in (no longer possible) and probably get NKed anyway.

[crypto]

You are assuming xvart is cop. You are also assuming his results.

No reason to think otherwise until he returns.

No lynch increases those odds from 60%, no?

No, killing a confirmed townie does not help at all. That's why it's important to lynch today. Tomorrow we have one less townie.

This entire debate is just stupid. I can't believe no one is just accepting a fucking cop claim. Your strategies are so weak and farfetched ... ugh.

[Raskol]

Well, it's clear NOW that you're not a cop. I don't think it was clear before, which is why your hypo-claim was terrible play if you're town.

WRT xvart, I really don't think he intended to imply that he was the cop. All he did was ask whether this would be a good time for cop to reveal if we had one.

That's not even close to being a claim

and I find you and Neto scummier for pushing on it (especially Neto).

He will have to tell us tomorrow whether he's really the cop or not, but right now it's better that nobody knows for sure. Whatever good odds you think we have of winning today, they can only improve after a no lynch. So yes, we should no lynch today, and we should play in such a way that If we have a cop, they have the best chance of surviving to give us more results. Keeping everyone guessing as to who the cop is or whether there is one is the best way to accomplish that.

TLDR version:

1. XVART DID NOT CLAIM EITHER THAT HE IS OR IS NOT THE COP
2. WE SHOULD NOT FORCE XVART TO SAY WHETHER HE IS OR IS NOT THE COP
3. NO ONE IS CONFIRMED---YET
4. EVERYONE HYPO-COP CREDIBLY

[Netopalis]

Hey, I gave believable results. I question the usefulness of hypo-cop, but I gave believable results. I think that there is a significant difference between questioning the theory surrounding a questionable game play vs. being obstructive to the town. The fact of the matter is that if Xvart wasn't the cop, he wouldn't have embarked on that little Q and A with me and Crypto - he would have just said that he didn't mean to imply that he WAS the cop and would have moved on. Unless he is protected tonight, he will die - I am sure of this fact. The only way to get any useful information from his role is for him to go ahead and claim and give results, otherwise that information will be lost and will be completely irrecoverable in exchange for the one-in-a-million shot that everyone on the scumteam is a bloody idiot (I hate banking on the stupidity of the scumteam, in general) or else that there is a second protection role in a game of 12 people.

[Raskol]

Hey Neto, guess what. If xvart is the cop and he gets NK'ed tonight, then we have his hypo-cop.

If someone else is the cop and they die and flip cop then we have their hypo-cop.

That is the point and the usefulness of hypo-cop. We don't have to know whether xvart is the cop right now, because if he dies then the mod will tell us he was the cop. We then go back and look at their hypo-cop and we know their results.

Also, there's a good reason for xvart not just coming out and telling you that he isn't the cop. It's because letting people know that you're not the cop narrows down nk choices for scum and increases their chances of hitting the real cop (if there is one). He already told you this, now I'm repeating it to you.

[crypto]

Argh, spammy posting. Sorry.

I just have a question for you though crypto: why does asking if the cop should give his results make xvart an obv-cop?

See below.

If you guys are really going to go No Lynch

would it be appropriate for

the

[/size] cop to

reveal his (or her...) information now?

The whole thing is pretty obvious. Scum don't overlook this. Keyword, upon review, is "the." I hadn't noticed it before, but now that I've gone back that article is just loaded with certainty. Really, though, the whole thing is worded like it's coming from that guy ...

I mean, it's the kind of thing I hear people say all the time regardless of their role. Hearing you jump on such an innocent question, it almost makes it seem like you were looking for a cop.

Oh,

yesssss

. More fuel to the Raskol-scum fire. You are really reaching, my friend. First of all, no, townies don't just flap around asking if the cop should claim during MYLO when the predominant sentiment is a no-lynch. Secondly, and more importantly, if it's such an obviously innocent role-unrelated question then you cannot attribute suspicion to me for "looking for a cop," because by your logic, Xvart is at least as likely to be vanilla townie or whatever.

Well, it's clear NOW that you're not a cop. I don't think it was clear before, which is why your hypo-claim was terrible play if you're town.

It's been clear the whole time. Don't play dumb, scum.

---

This is a wonderful turn of events. Lighting up scum like glitter on shit.

[crypto]

XVART IS GETTING KILLED TONIGHT UNLESS THERE IS A DOC OR UNLESS THERE IS ANOTHER COP CLAIM. GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEAD. IT DOESN'T MATTER IF WE HYPO-COP OR NO-LYNCH OR RANDOM-LYNCH OR LOL-LYNCH OR NETO-LYNCH OR CRYPTO-LYNCH OR ROFLCOPTER OR COMMIT SUICIDE EN MASSE.

[crypto]

WRT xvart, I really don't think he intended to imply that he was the cop. All he did was ask whether this would be a good time for cop to reveal if we had one. That's not even close to being a claim and I find you and Neto scummier for pushing on it (especially Neto).

He will have to tell us tomorrow whether he's really the cop or not, but right now it's better that nobody knows for sure.

AAAAHHHH. No. No. No. No. No.

We forfeit a town player by waiting until tomorrow to lynch. We have a shittier town:scum ratio. Scum will kill either Xvart or some other confirmed townie. Going from 5 townies and 3 scum to 4 townies and 3 scum with a no-lynch and a night kill WILL NOT INCREASE OUR CHANCES.

Unvote. Vote: Raskol.

[Netopalis]

Ok, I'm going to make a confession real quick.

I absolutely, positively hate the paranoia that this site has towards "giving the scum information." The whole concept has probably been the downfall of countless towns that were so scared of putting information out in the open that the most important points were lost as the players were picked off. We can't give out innocent results, we can't encourage people who have all but claimed to go ahead and do it, we can't talk about who we think is being pro-town. The scum should have known from the start of this discussion that Xvart was probably the cop. Even if Xvart isn't the cop, he STILL would have been an excellent kill. I'm still failing to see what the value of Xvart holding back his copness is - I doubt seriously that role is the main thing that the mafia is looking at now, given the fact that there are so few players that are realistically innocent.

Honestly. We're in MYLO. I'm strongly considering urging a massclaim. The more information that we have out, the better. Please, Xvart, claim. If you didn't want to claim today, you shouldn't have thrown a giant loaf of bread down where others would only drop a few crumbs.

[Raskol]

Post 858: Logic fail.

First of all, until your hypo-claim, no, there was nothing in thread to indicate you're not a cop.

Second, the fact that it was an innocent role-unrelated question is exactly WHY you're suspicious. Just because he might not BE the cop doesn't mean you're not suspicious for jumping on something you thought wa a cop getting outed. Scum are more likely to be jumping at chances to find power roles. It's the LOOKING that's scummy, not the FINDING.

Third, the presence of the word "the" does not indicate that xvart is claiming cop. If we're going to play at literary analysis, though, he presence of the phrase "he or she"

does

indicate that xvart intended to give the impression that he doesn't know who the cop is.

Fourth, even if your illogical babbling made any sense, I hardly see how it would suggest that I'm scum. Maybe you could help me out with that one?

[xvart]

Interesting indeed. My "hypo cop" results are:

N1 - Raskol (innocent)
N2 - Gyro (innocent)

xvart.

[kikuchiyo]

XVART IS GETTING KILLED TONIGHT UNLESS THERE IS A DOC OR UNLESS THERE IS ANOTHER COP CLAIM. GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEAD. IT DOESN'T MATTER IF WE HYPO-COP OR NO-LYNCH OR RANDOM-LYNCH OR LOL-LYNCH OR NETO-LYNCH OR CRYPTO-LYNCH OR ROFLCOPTER OR COMMIT SUICIDE EN MASSE.

Then why are you so eager for a lynch

today

? If it doesn't matter then we may as well no lynch. You, on the other hand, are not only willing to lynch, but lynch without a full claim and results. You keep throwing the word "dumb" around, but your strategy here is puzzling. You were pushing the foilist wagon(for which you refuse to take your share of the blame) and now your're pushing mine when the most clearly logical move is no lynch. Like I said, if a cop has a guilty on me then they should come out and say it. If not then(according to your percentage which btw is based on a random lynch factor) we have a 60% chance. Why are you insistent on us passing up the chance for a possible 100%, or even a 75%?

Is it because you don't like waiting?

[Netopalis]

Well, there's one way to end this whole debacle. Treat Xvart's hypo-cop as an actual cop claim with actual results. Votes off Raskol, please, and no further discussion on a Gyro lynch.

Given this, I feel sure that we need to either go after Kikuchiyo or else go after a no-lynch. I'm torn, honestly..there's a lot of value to either decision.

[Raskol]

Post 860: Math fail.

3/8=0.375
3/7=0.428

Crypto: player fail.

[crypto]

Yay.

Unvote. Vote: kikuchiyo.

Kikuchiyo, Walrus Helmet, and Havingfitz have a 90% shot at being scum.

First of all, until your hypo-claim, no, there was nothing in thread to indicate you're not a cop.

Look, the moment Xvart made that post, his cop stock went up and everyone else's went down. Also, it's relatively clear I wasn't the cop by my responses to Xvart. If I wanted to discredit him via claim and counterclaim, I would have approached it a different way.

Second, the fact that it was an innocent role-unrelated question is exactly WHY you're suspicious. Just because he might not BE the cop doesn't mean you're not suspicious for jumping on something you thought wa a cop getting outed. Scum are more likely to be jumping at chances to find power roles. It's the LOOKING that's scummy, not the FINDING.

Just be cause ... why ... maybe ... uh—ah—er—be quiet, you're supposed to be confirmed town.

Third, the presence of the word "the" does not indicate that xvart is claiming cop. If we're going to play at literary analysis, though, he presence of the phrase "he or she" does indicate that xvart intended to give the impression that he doesn't know who the cop is.

Yup, "he or she" is intention. "The" is mental slip.

Is it because you don't like waiting?

Silence, hypocritical flapper scum bucket sophist. Those terms all apply now.

---

Post 866: Reading comprehension fail. Statistical analysis fail.

Scum: 3/8 becomes 3/7 OR 0.375 becomes 0.428. MAFIA GAINS STOCK.
Town: 5/8 becomes 4/7 OR 0.625 becomes 0.571. TOWN LOSES STOCK.
Confirmed town: 3/8 becomes 2/7 OR 0.375 becomes 0.286. FEWER CONFIRMED TOWNIES.
Town loses a

confirmed innocent

. Mafia is still in full force. It isn't about there simply being a higher percentage of players being scum.

Raskol: player fail.

[Raskol]

There's no reason not to no-lynch today, Neto. If, tomorrow morning, kikuchiyo still looks like the best target, we can lynch her then. What's the issue here?

[Raskol]

There's a slight problem with that, though, crypto: right now we don't HAVE any confirmed innocents. You overlooked that part, I think. Or after xvart's latest post, are you still going to say he's obviously the cop? If he is, he obviously doesn't agree with you that claiming is the best thing for him to do. Maybe you should listen to him?

The point about losing a townie is noted and is valid, however, at this point in the game the battle lines are drawn clearly enough, and the connections are strong enough, that hitting one scum will give us a high probability of hitting the others on subsequent days. What is important is that we get the next one right, and no lynch helps us with that.

[crypto]

That's why Xvart should just fucking confirm his coppiness so we can get on with the win.

Kikuchiyo is scum. She's gotten increasingly rabid. Ching-ching, monay.

[Raskol]

That's why Xvart should just fucking confirm his coppiness so we can get on with the win.

Kikuchiyo is scum. She's gotten increasingly rabid. Ching-ching, monay.

after xvart's latest post, are you still going to say he's obviously the cop? If he is, he obviously doesn't agree with you that claiming is the best thing for him to do. Maybe you should listen to him?

confirm vote: no lynch

[crypto]

Yes, Raskol. If he is not the cop, he needs to just

say so

, so we can call this whole numbskulled convo off.

[kikuchiyo]

"Rabid"?

Interesting. You do realize that I have more reason to be "rabid" as town in this situation than I do as scum, don't you?

How do you know I'm not the cop? If you look at my hypo results and correlate them to my suspicions you may notice some continuity there.

No lynch forces scum to make a hard decision. Prematurely "confirming" players is poor form and outing the cop is anti-town at best. You were upset with me for hammering the wagon you fully supported yesterday and now you'd rather lynch based on "random lynch" percentages than make a strategic play to force scums hand. Whatever.

[Raskol]

I've got a better idea: let's call this whole convo off, and then let him tell us whether he is or isn't the cop

tomorrow

.