Mini 872: Mafia in Belgrove - That's All Folks

[walrus helmet]

someone who apparently she had a town read on.

I

may

be cop and I

may

have investigated you for your lazy hop onto the day 2 mislynch.

Walrus: What are you afraid of? Extending the game only benefits town. If I am scum, then who are my partners?

Are you now claiming cop on your hypo-cop results? If so then why are you FOSing someone who is confirmed innocent on your hypo-cop results? You can't claim cop, point to your results, and then go AGAINST them. If this is not what you are doing then please explain.

My decision on who is scum will not get any easier after the NK. Scum will only need one town to vote on an innocent to be able to win tomorrow. I'd rather lynch the scum with a wagon on them NOW, rather than risk a wagon starting on an innocent and scum hammering.

[xvart]

My decision on who is scum will not get any easier after the NK. Scum will only need one town to vote on an innocent to be able to win tomorrow. I'd rather lynch the scum with a wagon on them NOW, rather than risk a wagon starting on an innocent and scum hammering.

This is exactly what I was saying. I felt like I was taking crazy pills.

xvart.

[Faraday]

No lynch [2] (Raskol, Kikuchiyo]
Kikuchiyo [1] (crypto)

Not voting : [5] (havingfitz,gyro, Netopalis,xvart, walrus helmet )

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline 4th December @ 5am GMT

[kikuchiyo]

Then vote me. Why are you all stalling? It is making a great case for an xvart/walrus/crypto scum team. if you all hop on my wagon you will need a townie to hammer.

Don't be stupid, Walrus. We are talking in hypotheticals and you just pointed out that I am obviously not the cop. Way to go. Perhaps you and your buddies would care to further screw any chance town has of winning?

I'm calling the scum team as crypto, Walrus Helmet, and quite possibly xvart.

If we are not no lynching I am willing to wagon crypto or Walrus today.

I still think no lynch is the best option.

If xvart is scum, it makes perfect sense for scum to push this today and avoid a night phase. They'd have a real hard time explaining why he's still alive since he's the only one whose even close to being believed as cop.

Neto and having. Please vote no lynch.

[kikuchiyo]

Question to xvart and Walrus: Who would you vote tomorrow if I was nk'd?

[xvart]

Question to xvart and Walrus: Who would you vote tomorrow if I was nk'd?

I'm not ready to answer that because it gives way too much info to the mafia.

xvart.

[kikuchiyo]

Question to xvart and Walrus: Who would you vote tomorrow if I was nk'd?

I'm not ready to answer that because it gives way too much info to the mafia.

xvart.

Interesting. 100% avoidance.

[xvart]

Question to xvart and Walrus: Who would you vote tomorrow if I was nk'd?

I'm not ready to answer that because it gives way too much info to the mafia.

xvart.

Interesting. 100% avoidance.

Yes. 100% correct. Why should I give the mob some knowledge of where I will vote tomorrow based on a NK? Won't that lead to easier manipulation?

xvart.

[kikuchiyo]

Let me rephrase the question:

My decision on who is scum will not get any easier after the NK.

Assuming no lynch:

If I am nk'd and flip town, will your decision be any easier?

If crypto is nk'd and flips town, will your decision be any easier?

Let me help you:

I'm not convinced either (regarding crypto, at least).

An nk of towncrypto would clear up any indecision you have regarding his alignment, no? Wouldn't that make the decision on lynching me easier? If so, that discounts your previous stated belief that the lynch decision won't get any easier.

If you are nk' and flip cop, and the rest of us then have two more confirmed innocents, doesn't that make the decision on who to lynch easier?

You do know what "easier" means, don't you?

Why don't both you and walrus load your votes on my wagon? If noone hammers then we've got the the whole scumteam contained within us four(Walrus, crypto, xvart, kiku). If someone hammers then its good game to whoever the last scum is. If noone does, then we no lynch. Tonight you(if you are who you say you are) get nk'd leaving the scumteam of kiku/crypto/walrus. If you're willing to bet the game on your belief that I am scum then that plan makes perfect sense. My contention is that the only reason all three of you aren't on my wagon is because you know a townie isn't going to hammer in an OBVIOUS NO LYNCH SCENARIO.

So: Do you have the stones?

[crypto]

Preview edit: Kiku, what is your Raskol read, and why?

Unvote.

I go to sleep for nine hours and there’s been yet another flurry of activity in that time. That’s more than enough to persuade me to join in the play-it-safe camp and step as far away as possible from any L–0, even for a no-lynch.

I was about to say Xvart may be scum pulling a fast one on us, but Kiku beat me to the punch. She makes a valid and smart point, but it collides hard with my town read on him, but if he’s town he

MUST

clarify or revise or totally change or whatever his hypo-cop results before the end of day 3. And if Xvart’s not the cop, the real cop’s hypo needs to be legitimate, because if Xvart’s scum then we run the risk of losing the real cop tonight.

And yes, that last sentence is me saying I’m 98% sure there’s a cop in this setup. Cop, vigilante, and jailkeeper seem like a sensible combo for me. If there was no vigilante (or other non-cop town power role), I’d think it should be cop and doc. Correct me if I’m wrong, but jailer (along with roleblocker?) is supposed minimize setup swing. In one night one mafioso could be vigged and another could be investigated. So I could totally see a cop-jailer-vig-roleblocker setup, which could clear Gyro as well.

(Shrug.)

---

I still find the tone of Kiku’s posts scummy and I still have a scum read on her (a tentative read, but so are all my reads). Walrus’s post 894 is also succinctly good stuff in favor of her lynch. But she’s playing so fiercely that the behavioral hunch aspect of my read on her is turning into a big boat of WIFOM. Her play so schizophrenic, and yet she’s

so

emotionally invested … I don’t know, I’ll shut up.

Crypto is gung-ho for a lynch today and Walrus has reversed course in an anti-town direction.

I’m always gung-ho for a lynch. But I tend to find no-lynch arguments incredibly scum-driven. As for anti-town … well, I think we should just agree to

OMGUS

uh

steal each other’s worthless one-liners

ah

make empty attacks

er

lynch Kiku

… disagree? Crap.

So, Walrus Helmet’s post 894. I like it. Because it’s in agreement with me, of course. No, really, though, I’m starting to see Walrus as more and more town. He’s remained level-headed despite accusations by me and now Kikuchiyo and Raskol (though he’s less rabid than Kiku and I).

I'm not ready to answer that because it gives way too much info to the mafia.

Nooo! Dooon’t saaay thiiis!

Since you still have not claimed cop, your FOSes should be independent of whatever information you might’ve acquired.

Mod edit; tags fix'd

[crypto]

Wow. %$#@. I forgot smart quotes aren't plain text. Quote tags wrecked.

Not to distract from this scum-driven convo, but I'd love it if everyone posted his/her three-man scum team. Mine's changed.

kikuchiyo
havingfitz
Netopalis / walrus helmet

Forgot that having Walrus as town means Neto must be scum. That's a tough choice.

[Raskol]

I want to wait until I hear havingfitz's top suspect. I have a theory atm but I want to confirm it, and I need his choice for the lynch to do it.

[crypto]

Thanks, Mod.

[havingfitz]

I want to wait until I hear havingfitz's top suspect. I have a theory atm but I want to confirm it, and I need his choice for the lynch to do it.

Just in from RL, it's 11:20pm here and bed is not far off. In the interest of moving things along a bit (for Raskol at least) before I call it a night.....my top suspect is either Kiku or Gyro. I'm still reading and digesting but those are the two that have my attention at the moment. I'm still reluctant to vote for a no-lynch for the reasons I gave here.

Not sure if we were still doing this but thought I would play along...

My hypo-cop results are:

N1 - Ectomancer (innocent) &
N2 - Crypto (innocent)

I will elaborate on my suspicions tomorrow and if anyone else has any questions for me to focus my attention towards...shoot them to me and I will get to them asap.

[Raskol]

Yeah, give me one name, not two. Kiuchiyo or Gyro: which one would you pick if you had to choose someone right now?

[Netopalis]

Forgot that having Walrus as town means Neto must be scum. That's a tough choice.

How does this follow? I'm not sure I understand the reasoning here.


Obviously, I still support the no lynch. However, I would really like to hear from Gyro before we go into night...he's not posted in a while, and I'd like to hear who he suspects the most and why.

[crypto]

Neto, it hinges on the assumption Xvart is real and his "hypo" results are real.

havingfitz

Raskol

Xvart

Gyro

walrus helmet
Netopalis
kikuchiyo

Kiku and Havingfitz are fry-me obvious scum. So it's a tossup between you and Walrus for number three.

No lynch remains a damn stupid idea. We lose a confirmed town read and we gain zip.

[Raskol]

I still have no idea why you're so hellbent on the idea that xvart is the cop. Ever since he said the thing you *thought* was a softclaim, he's given you every reason to doubt your interpretation. It's absolutely mind-boggling, then, that you continue to behave as if he's as good as claimed the role. You've also completely ignored the potential benefits of a no lynch---your idea that it couldn't possibly help us rests ENTIRELY on the (extremely shaky) assumption that xvart is the cop and he'll be NK'ed. You don't know that. In fact, there's very little reason to believe it.

[crypto]

He acted and reacted like a cop. And I'm fairly sure there is a cop in this game. Therefore ...

Seriously, though, just no-lynch. The majority is bent on it. I've lost interest in this lunacy.

[crypto]

Okay, I reread and I

guess

I can see his phrasing as something other than a slip. If he is the doc, though, he needs to speak up before night if his hypo results weren't his real results.

So obviously I've warmed up to no lynch as an acceptable route, but it still does not sit well with me.

[xvart]

Question to xvart and Walrus: Who would you vote tomorrow if I was nk'd?

First of all, I seriously doubt you would be NK'd since you are the top contender for being scum at this point; therefore your whole question, regardless of if I was going to answer it or not, is irrelevant. If we no lynch, you will still be the top contender tomorrow, barring any crazy slips by your partners.

Assuming no lynch:

If I am nk'd and flip town, will your decision be any easier?

If crypto is nk'd and flips town, will your decision be any easier?

No, and no. I can't imagine a scenario where anyone turning up town tomorrow would make it easier. We are so lost and for the most part divided. The only thing we are coming to the conclusion is that you are mafia. If we lynch you and you do turn up town, then the mafia deserve the win and the bamboozled us good.

et me help you:

I'm not convinced either (regarding crypto, at least).

An nk of towncrypto would clear up any indecision you have regarding his alignment, no? Wouldn't that make the decision on lynching me easier? If so, that discounts your previous stated belief that the lynch decision won't get any easier.

Why are you so set on giving as much information to the mafia about who to NK tonight?

Once I hear whatever Raskol's theory is regarding havingfitz's number one choice, and depending on whatever his theory is, I'm going to put my vote back on Kikichiyo.

xvart.

[xvart]

Also:

Why don't both you and walrus load your votes on my wagon? If noone hammers then we've got the the whole scumteam contained within us four(Walrus, crypto, xvart, kiku).

If those are, in fact, the four possibilities, then I know who the three scum are for certain; but it isn't certain that every single scum is within your group of four.

xvart.

[Raskol]

Actually, I can do this now. I wanted to see if walrus helmet and havingfitz would back up the kiku lynch without being pressured into doing so, and they have.

From that, and everything else that's happened today, I'm relatively confident that kikuchiyo isn't scum.

Why?

Because

no one has opposed her lynch

, either directly or indirectly---in fact, everyone has listed her as a top suspect. No one has really even tried to

suggest

an alternate wagon. I really can't see the scum lying down that easily and sacrificing one of their own when there are plenty of other people they could have gone for today for the win---it's significant to me that no one outside myself or crypto has even mentioned walrus helmet, for example. No one mentioned havingfitz, either, and some people who were pushing for gyro's head yesterday have totally backed off today after seeing kikuchiyo come under fire. No one has defended her, no one has chainsawed for her, no one has suggested an alternate target even in passing. If she were scum she would have two partners, and honestly I can't find a single person (except me, when I pushed the no lynch) who has actively tried to do anything today that isn't lynch kikuchiyo. The simplest explanation for this is that there isn't anyone in the game who knows that kikuchiyo is their ally---no one who is sure that her death would be bad for their team---and that can only suggest she's town. If she were scum, I would expect to see *some* kind of an attempt by *someone* to derail her wagon or push attention onto someone else. But no one has tried anything of the kind, not with a competing wagon, not with a defense, nothing. Whoever the scum are, they are happy with a kikuchiyo lynch, and I don't want to lynch someone scum is happy lynching, *especially* not in MyLo.

[Gyro]

Obviously, I still support the no lynch. However, I would really like to hear from Gyro before we go into night...he's not posted in a while, and I'd like to hear who he suspects the most and why.

Well so far I'm sticking with my original assumptions of potential scum which include crypto, Neto, and the third person being rather xvart/kikuchiyo

Raskol and walrus helmet seem to consistently victimized for what I think is actually logical reasoning. Although walrus is almost as bad as me in really getting opinions down in posts.

I'd support a no lynch but it's seriously not going to give us much more information the next day and if we mis-vote again its game over.

For town, it looks like a few key roles along with a bunch of vanillas. Which include vig for sure and more then likely a cop and a doctor. That's a given really.

Vig is already outed. I'd consider a mass claim because we're really on the wire here.

Cop should reveal his/her results today which would semi-clear 3 people along with myself. Followed by a doctor reveal. Leaving the 3 final scum outed. (depending if someone the cop investigated died)

If we vote scum today then we still have a chance so it should be really time to cut the bullshit. If we vote town today then we are royally fucked. And a no lynch is a decent alternative but voting scum would give off so much leverage.

SOUNDS STUPID? LOLOL. I'm sure this is a flawed plan in many ways I can't think of right now but I could see it working. bleh

I'm also

OKAY

with no voting today and putting the mass claims off until tomorrow but it runs more risk.

I stick by my scum list.

[crypto]

I'm baffled at Gyro's seeming 180 about me. But whatever.

I'll have to reread it, but Raskol's case looks interesting. If we play along with it, I'm inclined to either no-lynch or lynch Havingfitz.