Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[Seol]

OMGSPOOKY. Pending information to the contrary, I guess that probably explains why BK never voted.

There's our information to the contrary - if Spyre didn't know about the double-vote, then it can't have been part of his motivation - unless the mod told BK but not Spyre. Spyre, would you mind double-checking this with the mod?

It's also possible that this isn't a permanent double-vote, but a private vote or a one-off effect. Spyre, would you mind unvoting and voting someone else (obviously not SC) to test? It's not going to prove it is a double-vote, but it might prove it's not.

Vote Count Cenq

StrangerCoug:

3 (elvis_knits, Iecerint, MacavityLock)

Konowa:

2 (SpyreX)

Iecerint:

2 (Percy, Konowa)

elvis_knits:

1 StrangerCoug)

SpyreX:

1 (Seol)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[elvis_knits]

I tend to think that Spyrex not knowing he had a double vote means that someone gave him a double vote (unless he's lying about not knowing).

[elvis_knits]

SC: It's not a case on elvis, it's an unresearched compilation of gut feelings. I'd put it not much higher than "healthy suspicion".

@SC... Piggybacking onto Seol's case was lazy BS. As you can see, Seol himself doesn't even consider it a case. So please explain to me why you are voting me.

I don't like how aggressive she's playing, I feel she's tunnelling badly and her reasoning isn't as strong as it could be.

I am not tunneling. It should be perfectly apparent that I am pressuring for information and evaluating responses carefully. I have not been on SC all day. I went after Iecerint first, and have actually changed my mind very much on him. I am stating my opinions forcefully, but I am always open to responses from my suspected player and even from the rest of you. I have asked if I was way off base on some of my points -- in my effort to be fair. I am being perfectly reasonable.

Maybe tunnelling wasn't the best word for it - I mean I think you're focussing too much on too trivial a set of details.

As for pressuring - well, maybe I'm just not used to you yet, it still feels like you're coming on very strong as your default mode, which might well be a big part of why I'm not comfortable with you.

Why does it bother you that I am aggressive?

I am also surprised that you are downplaying ties to boxman, when looking for ties to known scum is a huge deal! This is a huge tool for us to use, and you are criticising me for trying to use it?

I'm not criticising you for trying to use it, just in

how

you're applying it. If there are compelling ties to Boxman, of

course

that's a big deal. It appears we disagree substantially on what constitutes a compelling tie to Boxman.

You may think I'm being too agressive, but I think you're being too wimpy.

You are splitting hairs to find a reason not to pay too much attention to player's ties to dead scum. Having a dead scum is a huge advantage to us. Even if you think the ties are not that great, I still think it's a huge clue to us. I'm not advocating we go off and kill all the early netopalis pushers and don't look at anything else. I'm just saying we should not forget about boxman, and we should use player's interaction with him, to question and evaluate. It should be part of our cases, but not all.

So long as we're taking sides, I dispute that the case on SC is weak and I especially dispute the notion that EK is tunneling.

SC is also getting my back up. I'm not sure how I feel about him in general, I just feel the ties to Boxman aspect of the case is weak. I need to review the rest of SC.

When are you going to review SC?

[elvis_knits]

I noticed something very odd in Seol moving his vote to BigK/spyrex.

Seol posts from Saturday before voting BigK: 406, 408, 415, 422, 423 (no mention of BigK anywhere)

In the middle of that, BigK asks for replacement and gets replaced:

big_kahunia has requested replacement. His wish, will be granted.

SpyreX replaces big_kahunia. Ya welcome.

Then we get this post:

big_kahunia: Oh dear. I didn't like him before, and I really don't like him now.

Check that. Hoopla was mafia, not Sensfan. My bad. I skimmed Drake’s post.

This really rings false for me. Particularly the 4-minute gap between the posts: it feels engineered, intentional. This is particularly true given that much of the discussion to that point was centred on Box being scum and the consequences thereon.

Of course, if it

was

intentional, that puts BK as scum feigning ignorance of the NK situation. I'm still interested in the Macavity situation, but that's enough for an

unvote, vote: big_kahunia

- especially on top of bk's noncommittal play.

I'm also very annoyed that the replacer replaced out himself - that's really not a good show - but that's a separate issue.

I find it VERY odd that Seol wouldn't say anything against BigK until BigK got replaced, and then vote BigK before the replacement even has a chance to post.

The way I felt about the situation was that BigK looked like scum, but that if we were getting a replacement who is willing to participate, that gives us a much better chance of being more sure of his allignment. So I would have never moved my vote to BigK before hearing from the replacement.

The fact that spyrex replaced in and looks lots more town, makes Seol look even worse here.

Spyrex is a good town player. Not saying he's bad at scum, but I think we have a decent shot of telling if he is. No reason to off him prematurely.

Also, this reasoning from Seol is crapola. The whole thing about BigK saying he thought sens was scum, then reread and realized sens was town. The way I see it is this: it could either mean he has no idea who is/was mafia because he isn't mafia (meaning he's town or SK), or it could mean he was faking. No real reason for me to assume either way, so I'm just going to ignore it and put my time into things that are not as WIFOM.

Yet Seol has chosen to assume that BigK was faking.

He's all preachy to me about being too aggressive and that my ties to boxman points are not good enough, but he has chosen to believe one side of a WIFOM cointoss for basically no reason. And he's bringing this stuff up when BigK cannot comment on his point because he's out of the game! And he's not even giving spyrex a chance to post at all and possibly give him a better read! This seems super weasely to me.

[Iecerint]

Elvis, have you played with Seol in the past? I've personally noticed that you're a bit more aggressive in this game than in other ones. As such, I don't blame someone for commenting on your being aggressive (unless they lack prior experience with you). On the other hand, I agree that Seol's post on BK is odd. I didn't think much of it at the time because I was pretty suspicious of BK, but the post looks strange in the context of SX's subsequent behavior, and especially when contrasted with Seol's cautious interpretation of the flip.

Whether this means that Seol is a better lynch than SC isn't necessarily as clear to me.

[Iecerint]

I agree that SX should perhaps toy with his vote, albeit not on SC (for the moment).

[elvis_knits]

I may have played with Seol in the past, but I can't remember so it was not recently if I did. I don't think he should be used to me. Nor do I think I am that out of the norm in terms of playstyle.

I don't mind him commenting that I am aggresive. I do mind that he seems to mean it as a criticism. All along he has been "spinning" things. Saying he doesn't mind that I did "X," but

how

I did it. My POV is that it should not matter how I did it, if he agrees with what I did. Otherwise, it's really just an attack on my playstyle, used to subtly discredit me on the whole. So he's not attacking my points, but my manner. Which I think is scummy.

[Seol]

As for pressuring - well, maybe I'm just not used to you yet, it still feels like you're coming on very strong as your default mode, which might well be a big part of why I'm not comfortable with you.

Why does it bother you that I am aggressive?

I'm not sure. It's a feeling, not an argument. It may be something substantial, or it may be colouring my judgment.

I'm not criticising you for trying to use it, just in

how

you're applying it. If there are compelling ties to Boxman, of

course

that's a big deal. It appears we disagree substantially on what constitutes a compelling tie to Boxman.

You may think I'm being too agressive, but I think you're being too wimpy.

You are splitting hairs to find a reason not to pay too much attention to player's ties to dead scum. Having a dead scum is a huge advantage to us. Even if you think the ties are not that great, I still think it's a huge clue to us. I'm not advocating we go off and kill all the early netopalis pushers and don't look at anything else. I'm just saying we should not forget about boxman, and we should use player's interaction with him, to question and evaluate. It should be part of our cases, but not all.

Have you read my 408 and 422? They address the reasons why I'm cautious in general and where I think the arguments against SC are lacking. I don't think I'm splitting hairs - I think I'm arguing that your interpretation of events is not the most natural interpretation, and certainly isn't the only compelling one.

When are you going to review SC?

When I can sit down and dedicate time to it. Ongoing discussions I can do off the top of my head: research and review takes time, cross-referencing etc. I do have priorities outside Mafia for my spare time, after all. Hopefully this evening.

I noticed something very odd in Seol moving his vote to BigK/spyrex.

Seol posts from Saturday before voting BigK: 406, 408, 415, 422, 423 (no mention of BigK anywhere)

That's two separate sessions of play - one on Saturday when I was addressing some of the currently-being-discussed issues (plus a quick evening-post), and one long session on Sunday when I was catching up and consolidating. If you look at the times, they're quite clearly clumped. In that Sunday session, the BK vote was part of my consolidation.

The way I felt about the situation was that BigK looked like scum, but that if we were getting a replacement who is willing to participate, that gives us a much better chance of being more sure of his allignment. So I would have never moved my vote to BigK before hearing from the replacement.

That's one perspective, sure. I'm of the opinion that if I find a compelling reason to vote, then it's not going to stop being a compelling reason to vote simply because the player got replaced. It can't be explored, sure, but that doesn't mean it evaporates. I felt the BK case was the most compelling at the time, and will continue to assess SpyreX as he settles in.

The fact that spyrex replaced in and looks lots more town, makes Seol look even worse here.

Well, I'd say that SpyreX looks a lot more town than big_kahunia, but I don't see anything particularly encouraging in his post - it just isn't as bad as BK's posts. I'm not keen on the Mafia kill discussion, and "voting Net for NOT voting Boxman" is a misrepresentation of Konowa's play. Regardless, that happened after my post, so obviously it didn't affect it.

Also, this reasoning from Seol is crapola. The whole thing about BigK saying he thought sens was scum, then reread and realized sens was town. The way I see it is this: it could either mean he has no idea who is/was mafia because he isn't mafia (meaning he's town or SK), or it could mean he was faking. No real reason for me to assume either way, so I'm just going to ignore it and put my time into things that are not as WIFOM.

That assumes both possibilities are both equally likely. I don't think that's the case: Boxman's status was

the

highest-profile issue of the day, and I don't buy anyone not twigging that the guy we were debating over lynching yesterday and were looking at wagons on today was the scum as opposed to anyone else. I can understand BK not knowing who was Mafia as eminently plausible in general: not in this instance. That whole exchange reeks of fakery to me.

And he's not even giving spyrex a chance to post at all and possibly give him a better read! This seems super weasely to me.

How am I not giving him a chance to post? He's perfectly capable of posting with votes on him.

I don't mind him commenting that I am aggresive. I do mind that he seems to mean it as a criticism.

It's something I'm uncomfortable with. I will freely admit I haven't decided whether that's my problem or yours yet.

All along he has been "spinning" things. Saying he doesn't mind that I did "X," but how I did it.

That was true about the comments on the attacks on Sensfan day 1, but that's not what I meant in 444: that's not a playstyle comment, but rather that you're exploring a valid basis for suspicion (ties to known scum) with flawed reasoning (see my 422 for why I think it's flawed).

[elvis_knits]

Seol, I will respond to more later.

For now I just want to know:

Are you the SK?

[Seol]

Seol, I will respond to more later.

For now I just want to know:

Are you the SK?

No. Are you?

[Konowa]

Sorry for the lack of posting. Wife had to be rushed to the hospital early Thursday morning to have her appendix removed. Long story short, just got in this morning and will catch up today. I will try and get a post with my thoughts out before I head out today.

[elvis_knits]

Seol, I will respond to more later.

For now I just want to know:

Are you the SK?

No. Are you?

Nope.

And I am now finishing a response to your 422 since you referenced it.

[elvis_knits]

Sorry for the lack of posting. Wife had to be rushed to the hospital early Thursday morning to have her appendix removed. Long story short, just got in this morning and will catch up today. I will try and get a post with my thoughts out before I head out today.

Sorry Konowa! I hope she feels better soon.

[elvis_knits]

The ties, as I see it are:

His early boxman vote was not really serious or intended to lynch. Increases the liklihood that a scum would vote their buddy if they thought they weren't going to have to lynch said buddy

It's kind of hard to call my vote on Boxman a second random vote, though I was aware of the unlikelihood that he'd be lynched on that alone.

I thought it had been established that Boxman's not very likely to be lynched on just opting to sit out, as much as I like the tell.

On the one hand, I think any page 2 vote that was intended to lynch is highly anomalous. Reading too much into that in hindsight is dangerous. On the other hand, I can see an odd pattern to SC's speech about it, as if he's carefully constructing his sentences to say one thing but imply something else, to sit on the fence as long as possible. I also noticed that earlier, and it's got me slightly uncomfortable about him.

I do not care for page count arguments. People should stand by their votes whenever they make them. I often see odd scum interactions early in the game, so I do not discount early game at all. I do not agree with people who think there's nothing to be learned from the so-called random voting period, or early game.

Also SC's vote may have been on page 2, but those comments about the vote were made later. It shows a continued effort to sit the fence, to vote boxman, while also advocating not lynching boxman because of his lurking.

Also, the way SC got off the boxman wagon yesterday is very scummy, IMO. His reasoning for voting Neto is bad.

Unvote: Boxman and demote him to a Major HoS
Vote: Netopalis

The end of page 10 looks a lot like he's trying too hard to look town. #247 is awful.

So first we have the part where he unvotes scum and votes town,

Yeah, quite a few of us did that. I did. You did. mathcam and Sensfan, both known town, did. Unlike us though, Stranger was back on the scum by the end of the day (before Neto's claim, which is what crystallised the wagon into a lynch), and didn't hammer - which could be described as trying to keep a clean record, but is just as likely to be that he preferred to vote Box, as he said.

This is very sneaky, Seol! You are not taking into account the circumstances in which SC changed his vote and the circumstances when me, you, mathcam switched our votes.

Me, you, mathcam changed our votes after neto had claimed vanilla. Claimed vanilla made him a good lynch (as he's either vanilla or scum), and we were trying to stop any role info being discussed. Those are pro-town reasons for switching to Neto.

SC, however, changed his vote from Boxman to Neto on shaky reasoning -- Neto was trying too hard to look town.

Circumstances totally different. Don't compare the two.

followed by the part ML doesn't like, where he gives a "major" HoS to Boxman. MAJOR! I find Foses basically useless and I don't bother to use them like 99% of the time. Maybe SC likes them. Some people do. But drawing a distinction between FoS, HoS and Major Hos... that seems forced, like he's trying to prove he REALLY is suspicious of Boxman while he votes someone else. I see it as weaselly garbage.

Whilst SC has said a few things which feel... forced, engineered, that's not one that stands out to me. I can see where you're coming from, but it feels like you're taking a God's eye view of the situation.

I have said from the beginning that this could be just the way he plays, so I am taking this with a grain of salt.

Then the part which I consider the scummiest reason in the universe to vote someone, "trying too hard to look townie."

I actually like SC's explanation of that: it's not the looking townie that's the problem - it's that he's

trying

too hard, which makes it look forced and artificial. I think that's a perfectly valid basis for suspicion. Honestly, I don't agree with your argument here that there's that a strong tie between Box and SC, and feel that much of your case is as much about preferred playstyle as anything solid.

Okay, I still think this is crap.

How can you tell the difference between someone being town and someone trying to be town? What about Neto looked forced and artificial? I think there is no quantifiable way to tell the difference, and that saying that you can tell the difference is unprovable and therefore highly open to manipulation and therefor likely to be used by scum.

I do not think much of my case is about playstyle. The only part I can see about playstyle is the Major HOS part.

[elvis_knits]

Also, this reasoning from Seol is crapola. The whole thing about BigK saying he thought sens was scum, then reread and realized sens was town. The way I see it is this: it could either mean he has no idea who is/was mafia because he isn't mafia (meaning he's town or SK), or it could mean he was faking. No real reason for me to assume either way, so I'm just going to ignore it and put my time into things that are not as WIFOM.

That assumes both possibilities are both equally likely. I don't think that's the case: Boxman's status was the highest-profile issue of the day, and I don't buy anyone not twigging that the guy we were debating over lynching yesterday and were looking at wagons on today was the scum as opposed to anyone else. I can understand BK not knowing who was Mafia as eminently plausible in general: not in this instance. That whole exchange reeks of fakery to me.

I don't buy this argument because of the replacement.

Boxman was replaced by hoopla, and hoopla was listed as the NK victim. I could see someone getting confused. It does say above that post that hoopla replaces boxman, but I still think someone could have been confused and not immediately remembered that hoopla had replaced boxman. And if they didn't remember that, they might not have looked as closely as you think they should have.

I just think there's no way to know on this. And that you're basically putting together a conspiracy theory based on WIFOM. For someone who seems logical and cautious, this behavior does not make sense.

[SpyreX]

Yea, I'll check that out.

Unvote, Vote: Icerint

This isn't a scum vote, btw. Just grabbed a name.

[elvis_knits]

I forgot what you were doing there for a minute.

You almost made my brain explode.

[SpyreX]

Thats what I'm here for!

I will hopefully have time today to take a real look at those day 1 wagons. Still pretty sold on Konowa though.

[Iecerint]

NB: That I am currently (L-2) if the doublevote was a function of SX's vote rather than SX's vote on BK. Take care, etc.

My crush on elvis continues.

[Iecerint]

MEBWOP --

(L-1)

. <_<

[elvis_knits]

NOBODY HAMMER IECERINT!

[elvis_knits]

Actually, Spyrex, could you just vote someone else who has no votes?

[MacavityLock]

Waiting for mod & new votecount before even considering discussing Spyrex's vote(s).

@SC... Piggybacking onto Seol's case was lazy BS. As you can see, Seol himself doesn't even consider it a case. So please explain to me why you are voting me.

Totally agree. Piggybacking on a non-case.

I'd very much like to hear more from Percy, and Seol's fresh perspective on SC and me when he gets to it.

Will be LA for the next 2 days. Back on Wednesday.

[SpyreX]

OK, fine.

Unvote, Vote: SpyreX

THERE. Sheesh people with their votes everywhere.

[Iecerint]

SX, you had one vote (Seol was voting BK). If you have 2 permavotes for today, you're now at L-2. Just so that's clear.