Mini 869 - Frat Party Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[Nachomamma8]

Saber, did you even read post 506?

As for your no lynch scenario.... are you serious?

[saberwolf]

Saber, did you even read post 506?

As for your no lynch scenario.... are you serious?

yeah, i did, and its all opinion based to me, and fluff is not scummy, everyone does it, regardless of alignment.

I am dead serious with my no lynch. Having 3 people in lylo has a much better chance of town win than 4 people. Town being lynched is 75% with 4 people, 66% with just 3. Assuming that the vig truly is a vig, and that they do not consider a no-lynch. If it's an SK, then it's the exact same odds of town winning with four people as it is three. Either way, if scum dies, SK wins. If SK dies, scum wins. If town dies, it would be as if there was a no lynch in a three player lylo, and town must hope for a scum crosskill.

Therefore, it is advantageous to just assume we do actually have a vig, and vote no lynch.

Find a hole in my logic if you can.

[Nachomamma8]

Mafia is made up entirely of opinions.

And I would find a hole in your logic, but I don't truly understand it. I'll respond when I get some sleep.

[xRECKONERx]

dramonic replaces Seraphim.

[Taranski]

interesting.

eager to see your thoughts dram

[saberwolf]

Tar, if you are still around, I'd like your thoughts on my no-lynch strategy.

[dramonic]

My thoughts right now?

Saber, stop spouting BS

Vote: No Lynch

Better be safe than sorry, I always play with the thinking of 3 goons per setup.

I'll reread when I have some time.

[xRECKONERx]

Vote Count #18:

saberwolf (1): Nachomamma8
No Lynch (2): saberwolf, dramonic

Not Voting (3): Everyone else.

With six alive, it takes four to lynch (three to no-lynch).

[Taranski]

yur NL thing is smart. I was thinking about the same thing and was intending on bringing it up. NL is not nearly as bad a play when there is an even number for players especially during lylo.

however because of there being a vengeful mafia, and 2 kills last nigh esp not knowing whether we can trust DRK... i'd much rather not NL since their maybe ways for more than one kill to happen tonight which could potentially lose the game for us.

[Nachomamma8]

If there is an SK today, the SK will kill along with the mafia, and we'll have the same effects as a mislynch will get us, and we'll still lose. The best thing that can come from a no-lynch is we go from MyLo to LyLo, and the worst thing that can happen is town loses. If we lynch, the best thing we can do is lynch a scum today, and narrow it down to either (A) One scum left or (B) One SK left. The worst thing we can do is lose the game. Thus, why no-lynching is bad in this situation.

[Dragonfly13]

Here are the potential scenarios as I understand them.
With six players alive, noting that at least one player is either vig or SK,

A: 5 town, 1 scum
In this situation, a No Lynch is debatable, but I feel that it is preferable. If town NL, then the next day phase sees 4town/1scum, where town may decide to risk a mislynch, with a 1/5 chance of winning the game. If such a mislynch would occur, that leaves 2town/1scum. However, at 5/1, if town decide to lynch, there is a statistical 1/6 chance of winning the game, and a 5/6 chance of bringing the total to 3/1, where town would be forced to NL and bring the game to 2/1 lylo. Therefore, in this situation, by voting NL today, town increases the chance of victory, in saving the single mislynch they have left for the next day, by 1/30.

B: 4 town, 1 scum, 1 SK
In this situation, after a NL, four possibilities exist: a:scum and SK crosskill, with a town victory (4 survive). b:SK kills scum, scum kills town, leaving 3town/1SK. c:scum kills SK, SK kills town, leaving 3town/1scum. d:scum and SK both kill town, leaving 2town/1SK/1scum. In situations b and c it is then preferable to vote NL again, leaving 2/1 lylo. In the situation of 2/1/1, town's only chance of victory is in voting NL, and hoping for a crosskill. If there is any lynch, night phase sees 2/1 or 1/1/1, both of which are unfavorable when compared to 2/1/1.

If a mislynch were to occur under the original B, the night phase sees again four possibilities: a, same as before, with 3 town surviving. b, same as before, leaving 2town/1SK lylo. c, same as before, leaving 2town/1scum lylo. d:same as before, with 1town/1SK/1scum. It is then preferable to NL under B, as all outcomes are the same, except for the possibility of a 1/1/1 night phase with a mislynch, which is not preferable.

C: 4 town, 2 scum
In this situation a NL is preferable, leaving 3/2 lylo. A mislynch leaves 2/2 with a town loss.

D: 3 town, 2 scum, 1 SK
In this situation, a NL loses town the game. A mislynch also loses town the game. Lynching the SK loses town the game, ending up the next day with 2town/2scum. Lynching scum provides a possibility for victory, with the next day phase 2/1/1, see Bd, where a NL is preferable.

Therefore in 75% of the possible situations we could be in, a NL is preferable. The only questions are is DRK lying, and are there 1 or 2 scum left? I'm ready to vote no lynch, but I'm going to leave it open for debate until then. Of course we all know what a horrible liar DRK has been in the past, so this leaves me uneasy with my reasoning. If we're really in situations B or D, we've got a lot to think about before we just dive into a NL.

[Dragonfly13]

Actually, in D, scum and SK could crosskill, which would leave 3town/1scum. But the chance of a crosskill with 3/2/1 isn't very high.

[DeathRowKitty]

Of course we all know what a horrible liar DRK has been in the past

Are you referring to the whole cop incident? If so, I would like to point out that that has absolutely no bearing here. Unless you're suggesting that I'm a townie lying about being a vig, the fact that I pulled that Day 1 should make no difference now. If you don't trust me, that's fine; that's just not a good reason not to trust me.

I agree with a no lynch, but I was hoping we'd wait to do anything about it. Even the suggestion tends to bring things to a grinding halt. No one should hammer the no lynch until dramonic has read the thread and given opinions on everyone. If he's scum (which I wouldn't doubt), no lynching now gives him an easy out on giving an opinion on whoever dies N3.

[dramonic]

A: 5 town, 1 scum
B: 4 town, 1 scum, 1 SK
C: 4 town, 2 scum
D: 3 town, 2 scum, 1 SK

A: Nothing to lose from a no-lynch
B: Lynching would be decent I guess
C: No-Lynch is basically the best thing to do
D: Lynching SK is townloss, lynching a scum can result in prisoner dilemna, lynching a town is townloss unless a crosskill occurs. No lynching IS risky in this scenario, but less than lynching


I still believe C or D is more likely.

[Taranski]

the chance of D greatly out weights the chances of any other scenario except C.
there is almost certainly not 1 scum left. That would call for an incredibly weak scum team.

dunno im too paranoid to take the NL route.

[dramonic]

I'm not done reading, so please try not to push me in the ass too much ^_^;

[Dragonfly13]

Are you referring to the whole cop incident? If so, I would like to point out that that has absolutely no bearing here. Unless you're suggesting that I'm a townie lying about being a vig, the fact that I pulled that Day 1 should make no difference now. If you don't trust me, that's fine; that's just not a good reason not to trust me.

Yes, however, in this case you've claimed without a counterclaim, so I think you're either vig or SK. The only thing keeping me from believing your vig claim is the fact that you've done some shaky things in the past.

[xRECKONERx]

Due to the replacement and overall inactivity, I've decided to extend the deadline to 12/18.

[DeathRowKitty]

Hmm...intersting...

I iso'd Kise and DF11 to look at their interactions. You (yes, you!) should try it too. What you see may shock you.

[saberwolf]

I got prodded! how dare you!

[Nachomamma8]

Waiting for dramonic's input.

[Dragonfly13]

DRK, explain your case.

[dramonic]

If there is an SK today, the SK will kill along with the mafia, and we'll have the same effects as a mislynch will get us, and we'll still lose. The best thing that can come from a no-lynch is we go from MyLo to LyLo, and the worst thing that can happen is town loses. If we lynch, the best thing we can do is lynch a scum today, and narrow it down to either (A) One scum left or (B) One SK left. The worst thing we can do is lose the game. Thus, why no-lynching is bad in this situation.

You're purposely ignoring the 2 scum 1 SK option?
Even if we lynch scum, there are chances that with the 2 NK we'll be in prisoner dilemna.

[DeathRowKitty]

Did no one actually check the iso's??? How hard is it to iso DF and search for "kise" and then search Kise's iso for "dragon" or "DF"???

(Note: If my calling Dragonfly13 "DF11" confused anyone, please note I use base 12 whenever possible.)

DRK, explain your case.

Not a case. Something a bit odd going on between you and Kise. It would be nice if anyone would actually look for it...it loses some of its excitement if I give away the surprise.

[dramonic]

I checked both in ISO and nothing JUMPS out to me...
There are possibilities of scum connections but nothing overwhelming.