Mini 845 - The Amish Village (Game Over)

[VP Baltar]

I don't think putting a player who is on V/LA for another 3 days at L-1 is a prudent idea.

[don_johnson]

I don't think putting a player who is on V/LA for another 3 days at L-1 is a prudent idea.

i am not "prudent". i'm an idiot.

[VP Baltar]

Not that I really disagree with your vote, but I think we should at least hear from him (and Oj) before the day ends.

I don't think you're that much of an idiot don.

[don_johnson]

Not that I really disagree with your vote, but I think we should at least hear from him (and Oj) before the day ends.

I don't think you're that much of an idiot don.

you're right. i'm not. i said "don't hammer". what exactly are you worried about?

[VP Baltar]

There is nothing to be worried about, just annoyed. I want to hear from him and Oj. If Percy does flip scum, it would be be disappointing later to try and draw connections when we could have had more information before his lynch.

[magnus_orion]

I agree with VP

unvote

, only to keep him actually off L-1.
This is from no change in opinion on percy himself.

[Ojanen]

I am sorry to keep you waiting!
I am utterly dead right now and morning is far too soon, and tomorrow is impossible, but by all means I will do the iso reads on Saturday if humanly possible.

Access situation update

: I am flying tomorrow to Mongolia until December 28th. I have been told I have internet access in the hotels. I should be able to have enough free time to be able to keep up in the nights. Since traveling and my workload can be unpredictable as I've noticed, I'll post this as a notice. If nothing is heard from me until Sunday it means Ulan Bator has let me down and replacement is at mod's discretion (I'd

hate

to replace out of a game this dense but understand people shouldn't wait just for me forever). Access really should work out though, just posting in case.

[Fishythefish]

I find I don't have much to say atm. Oj's access problems shouldn't be too disastrous - probably won't be too much to reread with Christmas etc, and she has a few days before deadline.

I'm wondering whether DDD is coasting scum. Very surprised that he hasn't given more in the way of reads today.

@DDD: Could you link past games where you've done (and talked about) "trend analysis"? Also, who else is scum apart from VP, and why? Who is likely town?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm wondering whether DDD is coasting scum. Very surprised that he hasn't given more in the way of reads today.

@DDD: Could you link past games where you've done (and talked about) "trend analysis"? Also, who else is scum apart from VP, and why? Who is likely town?

Pretty sure I used it in all three of these games to mixed effect, I've since made a correction when Hoopla slipped through the cracks of Commie Mafia and DTMaster did the same in Mafia of Order.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12156
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12460
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12404

I don't think Percy is scum. Every time I've seen someone defend someone as voraciously as Percy did Iam they've been town. I think it's generally too risky for scum and it limits their options more than they'd like.

I think if I was looking for the last member of the scum team my instincts say I should first consider Ojanen and then after her I'd look at Magnus.

[don_johnson]

I think if I was looking for the last member of the scum team my instincts say I should first consider Ojanen and then after her I'd look at Magnus.

why this order? ojanen is v/la and possibly on their way to replacement. why not magnus first? why not vp baltar?

[VP Baltar]

he is voting me already, don. Still waiting for his response to my points about Iam's case.

[don_johnson]

he is voting me already, don. Still waiting for his response to my points about Iam's case.

shut up, you!

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Time to address Iam's points. His first, I don't quite know what he is getting at when he says I "contradict" myself. I think the reason I gave of being suspicious was very legitimate. Don had indeed stated at least some suspicion (and in some cases much more) of all the people on the zach wagon at that time and yet he said he was very certain it would hit scum. I don't see how that wouldn't seem suspicious, though Iam knew for a fact that don was town...so I suspect that played a role in him doubting me there.

My suspicions of zach were largely meta based, so I most definitely wanted some time to parse out the pros and cons of my don and zach suspicions and putting a vote on don at that time would at least enable that. Unfortunately, the zach lynch came through quicker than expected with Iam's CC and I didn't really get a chance to do meta research to back up my feelings on zach.

Iam's second point is very weak, imo, considering he's stating that a tongue-in-cheek remark I made at his hammer on a player who I at the time thought was scum was in fact a solid read. It wasn't.

1a) I’m not sure how you’re missing on Iam’s statement so badly. You claimed hesitance on the Zach wagon largely based on the people (plural) who were on the wagon. However, you only seemed to be evidencing suspicion of Don and when pressed on this point Iam states you tossed Iam onto the suspicious pile to make the statement true. So it appears you were just adding people to the list to make it true, not that your previous suspicions genuinely led you to this hesitance.

1b) Obviously the problems here are that you’re dropping minor suspicion on Zach leaving theoretical bussing him as an option while possibly chainsawing on his behalf by going after now basically confirmed town Don. And that it appears you post-hoc adjusted your beliefs to square with your previous statement instead of your beliefs leading you to make a statement of fact.

2) While it appears there’s a bit of tongue in cheek in the comment in retrospect, if I was going to make that statement about someone who I had an unknown to scummy read on I would’ve made it plainly obvious that the comment was sarcasm or hyperbole. I’d only leave such a statement just lying around as you did if I had an extremely solid read or knew for a fact that they were town.

~~~

Don, I would look at people in the order I consider them more likely to be scum. Since I believe Ojanen to be more likely to be scum than Magnus right now that's who I would look at first, regardless of whether they were V/LA or not.

[don_johnson]

unvote, vote: vp baltar

is fishy your partner?

[VP Baltar]

@DDD-I think if you are actually looking at my iso, I was talking about Zach since early in the day as potential scum and launched an original attack on him. I'm willing to admit that most of my hesitance on the wagon came from don's strange ideas about scum partners, but to say that I had no hesitance about Iam (let us not forget about the Fishy case and uncharacteristic lurking) because that is simply what fits your theory is severe confirmation bias. Which you are clearly showing re: the very obv. tongue in cheek remark as well. I don't see how that can be interpreted any other way, especially since you have played with me before and know I can be sarcastic.

Also, nice revisionist attack that I was suspicious of a "now confirmed town don".

@Don-nope, still town.

[Fishythefish]

@DDD: please explain why you are more suspicious of Ojanen than magnus. Why do you consider Percy town? What do you think of me?

[Ojanen]

Don't think I need to be replaced, internet access is possible. Will reread and post here in the next 48 hours.

[Amished]

Votecount 4-2:

VP Baltar (2): Debonair Danny DiPietro, don_johnson
Percy (1): FishytheFish

Not voting (4):Ojanen, Percy, VP Baltar, magnus_orion

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.


Deadline is the night of the 31st of December (or when I get done celebrating the New Year, whichever comes later). No real time allotted, but it'll probably end up being whenever I wake up on the 1st of the New Year.

Percy is V/LA for one more day

[VP Baltar]

Vote: Percy

[don_johnson]

w
h
y
?

[VP Baltar]

read the thread.

[don_johnson]

n
o
.

i thought we were friends.

[Fishythefish]

I don't know who is scum, torn between Percy, magnus and VP for the best lynch today (currently, that's my order of preference, but there's no great gap between any of them). Unfortunately, I don't expect to have a huge amount of time to spend on this game for the next week or so (and will have no access at all for the next three days).

@VP: I've read the thread, and I don't know why you are voting Percy over DDD.

Waiting for Percy's thoughts. Both any reply to my thoughts on him, and who is scum.

[VP Baltar]

@Fishy-it's one or the other, if not both of them by my own PoE. Right now, I'm feeling Percy a bit more...even though neither of them is playing the game and he at least has an excuse for now.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

@DDD: please explain why you are more suspicious of Ojanen than magnus. Why do you consider Percy town? What do you think of me?

1) I think it mostly goes back to N1 and how I would've played it as scum. Would I have tried to kill Ojanen as scum, probably not. If I was scum would I have had Ojanen send in the kill, more likely than not. Thus I think it's much more likely that the N1 kill was supposed to be delivered by Oj, not that she was the target.

2) As I said previously, I just don't think it fits scum prerogative to defend someone as much as he defended Iam.

3) VPB > Oj >Magnus > Fishy > Percy > Don > Danny; pretty neutral read on you. I'd have to double check my sheet, but I don't think your name came up in my trend analysis.