Mini 896 - Jekyll Mafia - Game Over

[wolframnhart]

My suspicions on each player at this time are independent. I have found that for me, if I believe in one set of people as a scum team on day 1, I might start tunneling and be completely wrong in the end. As the day(s) go on opinons might change and I could come to find out that it was three completely different people.

[wolframnhart]

Double post:

thank you for pointing out Nacho's quote, I completely missed that, even in ISO, so now I understand your reasoning better.

[HackerHuck]

One question: Do you believe that the scum team is "kikuchiyo, Mr. Suave, and 5cvm"? Or are your suspicions of each player independent?

That's an interesting question. Kikuchiyo - are you looking for potential scum pairings right now?

[Unity]

The only town motivation for a day one gambit that I can think of is playfullness untempered by game experience. He claims it was to spark conversation, but now he's canceled it in favor of a less pronounced role claim is he not?

Although, if it ever comes time for me to claim, you will see that my randomgambitclaim was inspired by my real role.

So he's trying to keep what little bit of credulity he has left by backtracking but claiming something vague enough that no one can disprove it without killing him.

My vote stands.

[kikuchiyo]

One question: Do you believe that the scum team is "kikuchiyo, Mr. Suave, and 5cvm"? Or are your suspicions of each player independent?

That's an interesting question. Kikuchiyo - are you looking for potential scum pairings right now?

No. I agree with post 175's reasoning for

not

looking for pairs.

[Gerhard Krause]

Ah, just picked up the mass prod. I don't have a huge issue with Kiku right now. My position is still the same as when I last posted. I'm happy with me Mr.Suave vote, I think he is the most likely to be scum, but if I saw something brilliant I'd switch over to 5cvm. Not likely, but we'll see.

[PHANTOM]

My vote is staying on 5cvm because I see him as the scummiest. I'm still waiting to see how he answers to my questions in post 110.

[Nachomamma8]

If 5cvm flips mafia I'm glad to deal with the heat tomorrow.

Ehh... what? Nonono, see, if 5cvm flips mafia, that's a good thing

@5cvm: Well, you're at L-1 now. Care to claim?

[xvart]

Happy holidays. I'll post before COB today.

xvart.

[kikuchiyo]

If 5cvm flips mafia I'm glad to deal with the heat tomorrow.

Ehh... what? Nonono, see, if 5cvm flips mafia, that's a good thing

Exactly my point. Not sure how you are intepreting what I said to mean anything else.

[xvart]

I'm not getting over this, coughing up blood this morning so I'm headed back to the doctor.

Dang. I hope you get better soon.

wolframnhart replaces Ectomancer

Welcome, wolframnhart. Happy hunting.

but for that "scumtell", I don't think you can really say that. you've never played with me before.

I know a scumtell when I see one, despite whose name is to the left of it.

Is the scumtell you are talking about the not knowing the votecount or misrepresenting the votecount?

Competing wagons are good for town.

Especially when they both may very well be scum. My vote tomorrow is heavily leaning towards MrSuave tomorrow unless he posts something incredible. I believe we have legitimate cases on both 5cvm and MrSuave.

xvart.

[Nachomamma8]

Is the scumtell you are talking about the not knowing the votecount or misrepresenting the votecount?

See: Ecto's case.

Exactly my point. Not sure how you are intepreting what I said to mean anything else.

Then I think you mean "If 5cvm flips town" because otherwise you would be expecting to get heat from successful mafia member.

[Nachomamma8]

EBWOP: Then I think you mean "If 5cvm flips town" because otherwise you would be expecting to get criticized for getting a mafia member lynched.

[kikuchiyo]

Nacho, I don't think you are reading my comment in the correct context, but whatever.

5cvm and Mr. Suave need to contribute.

Mod: Can we have a vote count, please?

[Green Crayons]

Ugh. I was hoping to come away from my reread with something more substantial.

My issue with the 5cvm wagon is that what he did was the antithesis of scum-play: he did something incredibly stupid that in no way whatsoever would convince a town that he was telling the truth. No sane town is going to believe that a pro-town role could determine a scum without any night action and based off of pure flavor without any outside input. It was a doomed gambit from the start - irrespective of its town/scum origins. It's really hard for me to wrap my mind around a scum that would play that stupid/gutsy within the first few pages of the game.

The question asked was what I thought of 5cvm, not why did I vote for him originally.

At the time of my vote, I felt that he was just screwing around and not at all serious. I was getting tired of the game playing. When he admitted to the gambit, that just affirmed what I was thinking.

You're right. The question posed to you was what you thought of 5cvm. But it was you who then pointed to the fact that you were voting him, and then said gambits were scummy. You were the one who was equating your original vote with 5cvm pulling a gambit - neither Nacho nor Phantom made that connection for you.

That said, what exactly were you "thinking" that his gambit reveal confirmed?

Also, what do you think of raider/kiku?

[kikuchiyo]

Reading through and 5cvm is at L-2, not L-1. I don't see a need to claim right now. I would like both of 5cvm and Mr. Suave to post some more thoughts. Both cases are not terribly strong it seems and we are only 8 pages in. There are some among us who seem not to be contributing much at all and that should change.

I don't completely agree with GC's analysis of the "doomed gambit", but much like xvart pointed out early on, some players just fuck around. Saying "scum wouldn't do that" is also wifom(but then again, what isn't?). I'd like to see more participation from the rest of the player list. Its not fair to expect the same five people to keep contributing. I have no issues with policy lynching on day 1. I'm going to do a few iso's and see if it turns up anything...

[HackerHuck]

The question asked was what I thought of 5cvm, not why did I vote for him originally.

At the time of my vote, I felt that he was just screwing around and not at all serious. I was getting tired of the game playing. When he admitted to the gambit, that just affirmed what I was thinking.

You're right. The question posed to you was what you thought of 5cvm. But it was you who then pointed to the fact that you were voting him, and then said gambits were scummy. You were the one who was equating your original vote with 5cvm pulling a gambit - neither Nacho nor Phantom made that connection for you.

That said, what exactly were you "thinking" that his gambit reveal confirmed?

Also, what do you think of raider/kiku?

What I was thinking was what "I felt" in the first part of that quote - that he was just screwing around and that he wasn't serious. As to your doubts about whether scum would do that, I believe that they would. I've seen scum (experienced players) pull stupid types of gambits before.

Kiku is a possibility to me. I'd have to go back and do a reread on him, but his recent comment on the competing wagons - while true - seems a little out of place as a reason for his wagon. I'm also a little leery of his last post where he's talking about a policy lynch.

[MrSuave]

so, I was mass prodded. and from my experience, policy lynches are never good. I've been told that many times, from many different people, and in several games. so I am against such shinanigans.

[Nachomamma8]

so, I was mass prodded. and from my experience, policy lynches are never good. I've been told that many times, from many different people, and in several games. so I am against such shinanigans.

Who are your suspects? Why?

What do you think of 5cvm?

[kikuchiyo]

Kiku is a possibility to me. I'd have to go back and do a reread on him, but his recent comment on the competing wagons - while true - seems a little out of place as a reason for his wagon. I'm also a little leery of his last post where he's talking about a policy lynch.

The thread was dead for almost 48 hrs. Neither case seems to be anything more than "these two players aren't helpful". Competing wagons are

always

good for town, especially on day 1.

Mr. Suave: Policy lynching isn't a "shenanigan". It is an attempt to force players to participate at a more acceptable level to avoid becoming a detriment to their respective team.

Both PHANTOM and UNITY have six posts in eight pages. Both are on the 5cvm wagon, and both have pretty much only been involved in that one particular discussion, not really adding much to it themselves.

PHANTOM did ask a couple of questions which 5cvm has not answered, so I guess we're waiting on those, but neither PHANTOM nor Unity have chimed in since with any analysis of other players.

Its possible that they could simply be satisfied with lynching 5cvm, but with xvart's testimony and 5cvm's weak response to pressure isn't this basically a policy lynch? There's no hard evidence against 5cvm other than a "failed gambit" and a couple of unanswered questions (which may as well be rhetorical), and the case on Mr. Suave seems just as weak, if not weaker imo. My hope was that these cases would be bolstered as we go, but all we've had are weak votes. Wolf chimed in with some good points, but ultimately voted 5cvm for "Too many things don't seem to fit here for me."

Don't get me wrong. 5cvm isn't a bad day 1 lynch. I'm just saying we're 8 pages in and it probably wouldn't hurt to explore other options and wait for 5cvm and co. to participate a bit more.

[wolframnhart]

Both PHANTOM and UNITY have six posts in eight pages. Both are on the 5cvm wagon, and both have pretty much only been involved in that one particular discussion, not really adding much to it themselves.

That's a good point Kik, wonder if I missed something on these two during my read.

[HackerHuck]

I took a look back at Kikuchiyo in isolation and have the following observations.

I am voting Nacho for his decision to not answer my questions. You have claimed "role information" which leads you to believe Nacho is 80-90% scum. Raider has voted Nacho based on the "false dilemma" that one of you two must be scum.

Out of those three reasons for a vote, mine is the least ridiculous. Also, if you are now backtracking and saying you don't think Nacho is scum, why are you leaving him at L-1? (btw: he's not at L-1)

Are you saying that your "role information" statement was some sort of gambit?

If so, why am I scum, but Unity isn't?

I do find it odd that someone who is trying to avoid the random voting aspect of the game places a slightly less random vote based on a poor response to non-game related questions. Since it isn't (as far as I can tell) any kind of scumtell to not answer your questions, it's similar to voting for someone who chooses not to partake in random voting.

This is interesting.

The biggest scum tell I see here is Mr. Suave not knowing if it was L-1, and staying on the wagon anyway even though he explicitly stated he didn't want the lynch to go through any time soon.

Essentially, 5cvm did the same thing.

Unvote, Vote: Mr. Suave

We seem to have two good candidates here. Lets see who wants to lynch who. Nothing like day 1 competing wagons.

so what, you're just jumping on my wagon just because? or do you have a reason?

I like ecto and Gerhard's reasoning. Competing wagons are good for town. They generate discussion and force more analysis and content imo.

OK, so you've basically admitted that Gerhard's reasoning also applies to 5cvm. You unvoted 5vcm to vote for Mr. Suave, so what exactly tipped the scales towards Mr. Suave?

The two most recent posts actually give me a little more concern. Post 190 is just a defence of 5cvm and a request for him not to claim. This last one is yet again an attempt at pushing off of the 5cvm wagon, while admitting that his case on Mr. Suave is pretty weak. I think it's time for Kiku to clarify her 180. I'd also like to know why she didn't vote for Raider for using the false dilemma she called out.

I don't see a 5cvm lynch as a policy lynch - or at least no one has said as much for their reasoning. I would like to see phantom actually do something except for reminding 5cvm that he has unanswered questions. We've got more than one scum, so it never hurts to look under a few more rocks.

[Gerhard Krause]

@HackerHuck - What you have displayed, at least for me, is that Kiku is not operating off genuine reasoning. Were she actually trying to catch scum, her thinking would be different. However, what it looks like to me, is Kiku posting fabricated reasoning in order to appear like an unconvinced townie.

I'm looking at Kiku's posts, and I can't imagine that reasoning coming from town, but it makes perfect sense as scum.

I cannot logically prove that Kiku is scum based of this, but I have had great success in the past based off these kind of reads, and I am more convinced of Kiku's alignment at this point than Mr.Suave's.

unvote, Vote: Kikuchiyo

[Gerhard Krause]

EBWOP: I am referring to the posts HackerHuck chose to quote, not his actually reasoning, although I do see ample merit in it.

[Budja]

Votecount

4 - 5cvm: (HackerHuck, xvart, PHANTOM, Unity)
3 - MrSuave: (Ectomancer, Nachomamma8, kikuchiyo)
1 - Nachomamma8: (MrSuave)
1 - kikuchiyo: (Gerhard Krause)

Not Voting: Green Crayons, 5cvm, raider8169

With

12

alive it will take

7

to lynch.

Deadline:

9th January