Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

[Yosarian2]

It doesn't lead to finding scum, I already found the scum. As I said, unless Bogre is gonna shoot one off my list today, please shoot me, so I can actually vig all the scum tomorrow instead of watching more horrible mislynches

On a side note, since it looks like ort was apparently town in California Trilogy, I am going to have to admit that him being stubbornly, over-confidently wrong like this, right up to the point of willing stupidity, while ignoring everyone else, may be part of his town meta.

His behavior still makes more sense objectively as scum then it would town, but I'm not longer confident about his alignment.

[AlmasterGM]

I don't think I've seen rewq in a little while. He may warrant a closer look.

He asked for a replacement.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I really want to hear more people comment on Howard. Every time I go back and re-read his posts, my brain just screams scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Anyway, I really want to hear more people comment on Howard. Every time I go back and re-read his posts, my brain just screams scum.

Which posts specifically?

[Sarag]

Hey I'm back. I hope you all had a good Christmas.

Alamaster 381 - what do you mean when you say I'm "kicking" offense?

2: This one's for everyone: Do you feel that Almaster's query is valid, given the comments HR has given, esp. his indications of Xyl's strong play, and his subtle accusation that Xyl looks bad in hindsight?

I looked, but I have no idea what you're referring to.

1.) Why do you feel I was tunneling on Rite/Huck? Was this deserved?

You started with a flimsy reason and then kept accusing him. Anything to do with him you interpreted as scummy. Confirmation bias at its finest. The fact that you eventually found something that I think was worthwhile doesn't change what went before.

2)If you had one failing as a scumhunter in this game, what would it be?

I haven't been staying current with the game, so I'm not commenting on things as they happen and eliciting responses that way. I'm catching up so by the time I post on something it's already been discussed and responded to.

3)Who has been the most effective/least effecting in scumhunting?

Hard to say. Ortolan was vindicated on Bogre, and he's been active on a bunch of topics.

4) Who is the most/least protown? Why are you protown? What have you done anti-town?

Before Slicey flaked, I was liking her posts a lot. I'm pro-town because I try to be accountable, and I've tried to advise the gun bearer on who I think is scum and why. My activity has been too low.

Some of this probably won't get answered until day 2, but I wanted to get it in before the day ends in case I'm shot.

Oops! Why would one be worried about being shot D1 . . . and not being around D2? Hmmmmmm . . . SCUM!!

/facepalm
I made that post late at night, I was tired. Yes, I was panicking about being shot. The game mechanic here just slipped my mind, I was thinking I'd die like in a normal game of mafia. Sorry, not exactly a "golden nugget".

Ort, if you are town, it's your duty to try not to get shot. When you say stuff like that, if it's not a gambit, you're at least skirting the edge of "play to win" stuff. Don't, please.

I don't see how Ortolan saying what he did is actually likely to lead to him getting shot for it. He could easily be blustering about, overconfident in his read and getting frustrated that people think he's scum. That seems more likely to me than that it is a scum gambit. Does anyone have a meta argument for ortolan? Does he like to gambit?

[ortolan]

Sarag I really like you for defending me. Such a shame you're scum

Just Shoot Me! so I can win the game

[HowardRoark]

I still want a Sarag lynch. A lot of players have not commented on it and that's frustrating.

[Elmo]

Slicey has requested replacement.

The

deadline

is Wednesday 6th January 2010, 22:00 UTC, which is 8 days, 6 hours and 59 minutes from this post.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I really want to hear more people comment on Howard. Every time I go back and re-read his posts, my brain just screams scum.

Which posts specifically?

Well, in retrospect, I really dislike the way he talked about Bogre yesterday. In his first analysis post, my impression was that he thought Bogre was dumb town, with comments like this:

If we're lucky Bogre is scum trying to seem like a townie trying to get the gun. If we're unlucky Bogre is a townie who is playing against the town. Either way I want him dead as soon as possible.

The good news: I agree. The bad news: If he's not scum that means his death equals two town deaths.

@Bogre: (regarding post 99) Yes. Your play (if you are town) has created a lot of focus on you, distracting attention away from others and is therefore anti-town.

THen, after that post, he just keeps saying he thinks Bogre is scum, but never gives a reason for it:

Top 3? Zakeri, Bogre, Slicey/DraketheFake.

Borge: Scummy.

Concerning Bogre, see my scumlist. (Hint: he's number 2.)

And then, after all that, his analysis of the Bogre wagon the next day really sounded scummy to me. He attacks everyone who supported the Bogre wagon (first attacking you for starting it, then attacking everyone else as "the dirty followers".

He really seems to be worried about you being accepted as town, Xyl, and seems to be doing his best to undermine that without taking you on directly.

I also got kind of wierded out by his reaction to you defending me.

@Xylthixlm: I understand that you feel that Yosarian2 is town here, but defending him doesn't help him look any better nor me to develop my read.

I mean, huh? If player A defends player B, and especally considering he seemed to be suspicious of both me and you, why wouldn't that help develop his reads on both players? If I'm attacking someone, and someone else comes to their defense, you get just a ton of information from it. He should be prodding you to find out more about what you think, not trying to shut you up here. The only reason I can think of why he wouldn't want me to defend you is if he's trying to avoid getting in a fight with you, because most people believe you are pro-town, and most people seem to be listening to you.

I don't have a problem with his Sarag scumtell; I'm not sure it's as strong as he seems to think it is, but it may be. But his play otherwise, the way he's been making cases, and his posting in general just seems like scum play to me. It's am impression I get whenever I read through his posts in isolation or in context.

[HowardRoark]

Yes, I said Bogre was scummy. No, I did not say he was scum. He was number two on my list for his scummy play because I didn't have stronger reads on my other suspects.

You bet I threw a little pressure on the Bogre wagoners. Two of whom I had weak scum reads on D1. Two of whom I had little read on yesterday. ortolan is on the opposite end of the spectrum because he adamantly opposed a Bogre shot.

I understand the benefit of the linkage created via defense of another player. However, I was very sure of what his thoughts would be.

Take my Sarag scum tell as you wish. I know what I see. Responses to it and her death could be invaluable.

[Elmo]

Nachomamma8 replaces rewq455. Maemuki replaces Slicey. Thanks to both of you!

The

deadline

is Wednesday 6th January 2010, 22:00 UTC, which is 7 days, 7 hours and 29 minutes from this post.

[Nachomamma8]

Reading up. Shouldn't take me too long to get up a post.

[Nachomamma8]

Xyl:

First off, Xyl's been taking complete and total control over the town, which is something that it's in scum's best interest to do. And I also don't like how he declares people scum as opposed to questioning and trying to persuade the gunbearer of their scumminess instead. Which proved to be an entirely ineffective technique against Bogre.

He begins the attack aggressively, but not effectively. It might just be that I'm bad at seeing his sarcasm, but for seven straight posts (ISO 9-15), all he does is point and tell Bogre he's scum. I also hate people who have to rub their percieved towniness in everyone else's faces, like he does in the following posts:

If I get the gun there is going to be a massacre.

I'm not personally afraid of being shot. Are you?

I'd rather keep a extra townie alive.

3)Who has been the most effective/least effecting in scumhunting?

Most effective is me, because I have to keep up my reputation for arrogance.

I'm always most protown. Least protown would be the scum (Sarag, ortolan, and rewq). I'm protown because I am. Anti-town things I've done... none come to mind.

I find that scum are more likely to repeat how town they are over and over and over again...

And then, after ALL of that, he posts this in response to ortolan:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

Then, in 97 and 99, he resumes the same cycle he started with Bogre.


Questions:

What makes your over-agressiveness any different from ortolan's?
Are you more confident in your ability than Bogre's as gunbearer?

[Maemuki]

Oh hai guys! I'll read when I'm on the hotel. Bye!

[Xylthixlm]

Nachomamma, nothing's a scumtell unless I wouldn't have done the same thing as town. Which I'm pretty sure I would have because I

am

town. But if you want to argue that townies shouldn't be vocal with their opinions, or shouldn't say that they're town if asked, you're welcome to do so.

[Yosarian2]

Xyl:

First off, Xyl's been taking complete and total control over the town, which is something that it's in scum's best interest to do.

I do not think Xyl aggressively leading the town is a scumtell for him.

Actually, I don't really think that's a scumtell for anyone, but I also know that he personally does that as town consistently.

[Yosarian2]

Sarag I really like you for defending me. Such a shame you're scum

Just Shoot Me! so I can win the game

Ort, what happened to your playstyle?

I just happened to go back and re-read lynch all lurkers again, and you were a good townie there; a little laid back, logical, effective, and reasonable.

You're playing this game like you played the California game; overconfident for no good reason, convinced you're right and everyone else is wrong, loud but unhelpful.

Let me ask you a question. If you're town, what would you say you learned from the way the California game went?

[Nachomamma8]

Nachomamma, nothing's a scumtell unless I wouldn't have done the same thing as town. Which I'm pretty sure I would have because I am town. But if you want to argue that townies shouldn't be vocal with their opinions, or shouldn't say that they're town if asked, you're welcome to do so.

I don't know what you do as town; I've never played with you before. But I do know that someone leading the town that's NOT the gunbearer is a dangerous thing; this a very special setup where the town's victory depends on someone who isn't scum leading town.

And I don't want to argue townies shouldn't say they're town if asked, but I do want to point out that townies shouldn't have to say they're town constantly. As you said,

The thing we already know is that you'll say you're town.

So why does constantly saying "I'm town" help anything?

[Xylthixlm]

But I do know that someone leading the town that's NOT the gunbearer is a dangerous thing; this a very special setup where the town's victory depends on someone who isn't scum leading town.

The fact that the gunbearers are being passive wimps is not something I can do anything about. Do you really think that the whole town should do nothing if the gunbearer is doing nothing?

Trying to spin activity as a scumtell strikes me as

really

scummy here.

So why does constantly saying "I'm town" help anything?

Half your examples are responding to questions from the gunbearer. The other half require real stretching to read as "I'm town".

[Nachomamma8]

Do you really think that the whole town should do nothing if the gunbearer is doing nothing?

No, I never said that. But I don't think that a single person should lead the town. Do you think that the town should blindly follow your lead?

Trying to spin activity as a scumtell strikes me as really scummy here.

Then explain how I'm spinning activity as a scumtell. I'm pointing out how you're leading the town, and how that's detrimental to town.

Half your examples are responding to questions from the gunbearer. The other half require real stretching to read as "I'm town".

They require real stretching to read as "I'm town". Alright, let's look.

If I get the gun there is going to be a massacre.

Scum can't get the gun. Thus, you're saying you're town. I don't see that as too much of a stretch.

I'd rather keep a extra townie alive.

When town gets shot, another town dies. Thus, you're saying you're town. Not a stretch there either.

[ortolan]

Let me ask you a question. If you're town, what would you say you learned from the way the California game went?

Not much, mostly that some players are horribly overrated.

[Xylthixlm]

Do you really think that the whole town should do nothing if the gunbearer is doing nothing?

No, I never said that. But I don't think that a single person should lead the town. Do you think that the town should blindly follow your lead?

Trying to spin activity as a scumtell strikes me as really scummy here.

Then explain how I'm spinning activity as a scumtell. I'm pointing out how you're leading the town, and how that's detrimental to town.

Do you think that it's scummy or not? Yes or no.

If I get the gun there is going to be a massacre.

Scum can't get the gun. Thus, you're saying you're town. I don't see that as too much of a stretch.

I'd rather keep a extra townie alive.

When town gets shot, another town dies. Thus, you're saying you're town. Not a stretch there either.

Both of those two are saying something else, and just happen to assume that I'm town. In neither one is "I'm town" the primary intended message. What, were you expecting me to say "If I'm town, I'd rather keep an extra townie alive, but if I'm scum go ahead and shoot me"?

[Nachomamma8]

Do you think that it's scummy or not? Yes or no.

Your leading of the town? Yes.

Both of those two are saying something else, and just happen to assume that I'm town. In neither one is "I'm town" the primary intended message.

Alright, I understand this point for the second one, but the I don't really see the point of the first one.

That being said, just because two people are having an argument DOESN'T MEAN EVERYONE HAS TO LURK. (I'm especially looking at you, AlamasterGM and DragonsofSummer).

[ortolan]

let's frag someone. I vote Hacker. Or we could just go with the consensus Sarag.

[Maemuki]

This thread needs moar Bogre, but confirmed townies always talk less then what they should.

---

I only read the game up to one of it's early pages, so please bear with me if my opinions are outdated!

Not really. Keeping stuff to yourself for a while is okay, but I'd advise letting people know who you're planning to kill ahead of time, rather than just suddenly shooting. The last-minute flurry of activity is very informative.

QFT. Sarag's statement strikes me as weird - and her followup as well. It's like "i meant to say that", even though it doesn't seem like it...setting up the first gunbearer to mishoot, anyone?

Yeah, it would be lame if Vala died. Both scum and town should wish to avoid being shot, Bogre.

...stop agreeing with people!

Way to go, Sarag. Two pages into this thing and I already suspect you. Also why are you always agreeing with Xyl?

Same to rit - ohwaithereplacedoutnevermind

Can you imagine an answer to this question that somebody wouldn't have jumped on?

QFT. Page 2, people! It's not like he could make a magical awesome answer. This was mostly a mistake on Vala's part, unfortunately. Sure, she might have thought that he was scummy, but that question is hard to answer on Page 2 - and even Day 1.

...I..am not sure about Xyl. He doesn't act like this as town...sure, he makes cases like "^ scum" as town - but not automatic "defend him and you're scum" before flips, like he did here.

More later.