I'm not going to claim. I am going to softclaim, however - I am not vanilla townie, and I am an asset to the town. If you don't lynch me I will claim in full first thing tomorrow morning and demonstrate exactly why I didn't claim in full right now.
Notice how I am not currently hammering VP Baltar. This is for two reasons:
(1) I'm not scum, and
(2) I don't think he's scum either.
See, I've done a quick skim of the game and looked at everyone who is alive in ISO. Two stick out for me:
DDD - Coasting scum. My top pick for scum, hence my vote. Take a look at his attitude towards the Zach wagon in ISO.
magnus - his IAAUN case was never good and I never liked it. Now what's been bothering me more lately has been his on-again, off-again approach to my wagon. He seems to forget previous points against me, votes me for weak reasons, declares me town and unvotes me, before jumping back on my wagon. Currently my #2.
Both of these players make sense to me as Zach's buddy. I'm pretty sure both are scum, now that I've taken a closer look. Whilst VP's main pushes have flipped town (as Ojanen has pointed out), I think the manner he conducted himself is more transparent and reasonable than, say, magnus' push against le Chat/IAAUN and his "case" prevaricating against me.
I still think VP Baltar is somewhat scummy, but I'm not getting strong enough scumvibes from him to hammer - also, he unvoted me, and I think objective vote analysis shows that neither of us are scum after this exchange. How players behave when wagons get close is really important, and since I know I'm town, I'm inclined to believe VP is town as well. magnus and DDD are far superior choices.
To answer questions put to me:
Fishythefish 1216 wrote:I’m saying it’s odd to leave out that post when giving your full opinions on Hero – from what you say here, it feels like you left it out because it disagreed with your read. Which is very much fitting your evidence to your conclusion. Do I misunderstand?
I left that out, but not to try and force a townread. I just didn't think it needed to be stated again.
Fishythefish 1216 wrote:The fact that you, pretty arbitrarily AFAIC, chose DDD over Hero makes you more likely scum. Dismissing this as confirmation bias grates horribly with your earlier praise of vote analysis (IIRC? could have been someone else).
This was my earlier vote analysis:
Percy 1012 wrote:I'm going to have a crack at a vote analysis. Apologies if I missed any votes.
Vote table
1. Claus/Percy - 5 6 8 C 9
C
\\ A 9 A 9 \\ 9
(2 3 4 7 B)
2. ABR/Ojanen - 8 9 7
C
\\ 3 B 9 \\
(1 4 5 6 A)
3. Hero/Zach - 6 C
C
\\ 9
B
\\
(1 2 4 5 7 8 A)
4. Konowa/VP - 8 C 7
C
\\ 8 B 7 9 A
B
\\
(1 2 3 5 6)
5. le Chat/IAAUN - C 8 7
C
\\ 7 3
B
\\ 3
(1 2 4 6 9 A)
6. magnus - B 3 A 1 4 5 \\ 5 \\ 1
(2 7 8 9 C)
7. Nuwen/Fishy - 6 9 8
C
\\ A 9 A 3 A 3
B
\\ 3
(1 2 4 5)
8. red dye/chamber/don - 7 A B \\
B
\\
(1 2 3 4 5 6 9 C)
9. Rosso/Sajin/DDD - \\ A 5
B
\\
(1 2 3 4 6 7 8 C)
A - Artem/SerialClergyman
B - Kairyuu/DeathSauce
C - Mitey/RayFrost
\\ - Day change
bold
- Lynch vote
(...)
- Slots that have not been voted for
Conclusions:
I'm liking the Zach case. His slot has barely participated, yet happened to be on both the mislynching wagons. I'd say he comes off the worst in this analysis. chamber/don comes off only slightly better, but the lurking has been obvious and hurtful.
I think IAAUN's hammer yesterday was good evidence towards his towniness, even though he's been on both wagons.
Both Fishy and VP have jumped around a lot, and they're both on both the lynching wagons. I think changing votes a lot is nullFishymeta, but is VP's as well?
magnus is the only player alive who hasn't been on a mislynching wagon. He's also stated before the flip that he didn't like the cases and that the wagonned player would flip town. Potential scumgambit? I'm not sure. I'm interested to hear his thoughts on IAAUN, given that it's been the slot he's been concentrating on almost all game, though he was linking SC and IAAUN's alignment a lot yesterday. At the moment, though, I think magnus is probably town, and the scum were thinking of this:
magnus_orion 921 wrote:Of course, come to think of it, with the aggressive pursuit, if SC is town, Percy's probably scum.
...when they chose their NK choice last night.
Rosso/Sajin/DDD is the hardest to comment on, so I'm going to do a more detailed read below. Some interactions with the chamber slot are worth noting.
I can't pick anything particularly insightful out of Ojanen's voting history.
Debonair Danny DiPietro
All three players who have had this slot have been very evasive players - Rosso, then Sajin, and finally DDD. Rosso was defended early on by chamber, which I've always been puzzled by, but his playstyle makes it very difficult to read him. Sajin's jumping onto the SC wagon was questionable, and even though he may have had a point to begin with, his continuation was definitely scummy.
I didn't like magnus' case against IAAUN, and DDD's jumping on that wagon was worse than anyone jumping on IAAUN's Fishy wagon. He sustained the argument (IAAUN didn't get votes therefore he's scum), but eventually dropped it and jumped on the deathsauce wagon. That argument has been the only piece of scumhunting he's done since replacing in.
Reading him in ISO is quite enlightening - defence, evasion and wagon jumping.
I think this slot is where we'll find scum. I'm keen to hear from don and Zach, as I think those slots are scummy as well.
I am actually quite happy with this post. It was my first real go at doing some objective analysis, and I think I gave pretty clear reasons why I was directing my suspicion where it was. It was hardest to do vote analysis on the DDD slot as it had voted the most infrequently.
magnus_orion 1218 wrote:What strikes me about this most is percy's desire for consistency. He's going out of his way to find a previous statement he made, and excuse himself of it. This strikes me as odd. I think this excuse is occurring because he's found a plausible target (I admit, DDD's opinion on Ojanen is disconcerting) and is trying to force his previous opinions to better conform to it.
I'm very concerned with internal consistency, it's how I make sure nothing slips through the cracks. I often go back and read my older posts when I'm creating new ones, because I usually treat my posts like my notes.
I said earlier that Sajin/Hero interaction suggests they are not scumbuddies. I subsequently revisited that read, and came to a more null conclusion. If I had left out my earlier opinion of this interaction, I would have been called out for inconsistency (in fact, this is kinda like the discussion I'm having with Fishy now). Now that I'm trying to show my thought process and aim for consistency, that's a scumtell too?
It appears magnus is "off again" with my wagon. Also, as Fishy has pointed out, magnus' attitude towards Fishy is quite odd. I think I'm more convinced by my magnus case right now, so
Unvote, Vote: magnus_orion
. magnus should be the lynch today.
