Mini 201 - Game Over!

[HezLucky]

I think vigilante should claim

[vikingfan]

Correct, Blackberry. But here's the thing-according to halo in the post above, there is no announcement of anyone being beaten up (as happened with Someone). And no one else has ever stepped up and admitted that they beat up Someone, so I think I'm in the clear there. If my roleblocking didn't work (for whatever reason), then that means something else again-the person I blocked may NOT be the doc. For example, the SK may be unblockable, which would make sense since the SK needs an advantage since he's playing by himself.

For now, I have to assume that my blocking action will show up in the OP if it worked-that's why halo's report is so essential.

[Blackberry]

I have suspiscions that Pheobus is anti-town in some way or another. I have a good idea of who a Vig is. For the moment, I will trust HezLucky and Viking. My suspiscions are between Phoebus and someone else and right now they are more focused on Phoebus.

Vote: Phoebus

Feel free to role-claim Phoebus, I'd like to hear what you'll

make-up

.

~ Blackberry

[Yanqush]

I am inclined to think that vikingfan is a killer, due to the way he block - he beats people up, and we have a corpse that was beaten up..... so a

FOS:vikingfan

however.....

This gives us two options, whoever viking blocked is doctor OR viking is lying.

Viking, if you blocked someone, I think it would be advisible not to admit who you blocked, they are the doctor.

This sounds..... wrong/weird to me.

You are assuming that:
a)vikingfan blocked someone that is still alive.
b)vikingfan blocked the doctor.
and in the second sentence assumes vikingfan tells the truth so in effect cancelled out the first sentence's 2nd option meaning
c)vikingfan is a good guy which we don't know for sure.

These are pretty big assumptions, don't you think?

Vote: Blackberry

Don't know if you have read what they say on day 1, but you don't go asking for a claim right off the bat...... that is just soo infomation mining (scummy)......

Time to wake up Phoebus and Someone~~~

[Dragon Phoenix]

[HezLucky]

Don't know if you have read what they say on day 1, but you don't go asking for a claim right off the bat...... that is just soo infomation mining (scummy)......

On the contrary, I think it does nothing but benefit the town if the vigilante claims.

There are 6 people. The following roles seem to be what we have:

Mafia
Serial Killer
Vigilante
Doctor
Vikingfan's role (assuming he's innocent)
My role

So if someone claims a role that's not one of the ones listed above, we automatically know either they or vikingfan is lying.

On the other hand, if someone claims vigilante, the mafia and serial killer will either have to make up a role to get vikingfan lynched (if he's innocent) or all claim doctor or vigilante on the spot.

Someone claiming vigilante would drastically reduce the number of potential roles out there.

FOS: vikingfan

- I thought about that scenario, Yanqush, especially when I saw someone was beaten up and that happened to ring a bell ...

FOS: Blackberry

- You seem too sure of whose "innocent" and "guilty" in your mind ... gives me an uneasy feeling.

No vote from me yet, though. I need to hear a lot more.

[HezLucky]

I'd just like to add one thing to vikingfan:

Your role is cleared.

You are not.

(Translation: I believe your role claim, but not necessarily your alignment. I can't trust that you are pro-town)

[halo freak]

I forgot about a choice but have updated the death scene post so have a look. Yanqush now has a 25 word post restiction.

[Phoebus]

Substance, Blackberry, substance.
You can't just go about intimidating people without proof.

Add Yanq, remember time zones and real lives?
Keep your pants on!

Lucky, if you believe viking, I don't think you have to doubt his alignment.

[Someone]

Why is that? Viking could easily be an SK, or even part of the mafia group.

Blackberry, any reason for your phoebus vote? I don't think you'll find much support in your vote unless it's based on something concrete.

And people,

please

stop using someone if you're not referring to me.

[Phoebus]

Sk who puts post restrictions on people?
You're still alive, aren't you? So it's not beaten up and delayed death.

[vikingfan]

Agreed with Phoebus-I've never heard of an SK who is also a roleblocker. Mafia roleblockers are more common.

Now, for some analysis, intended to create possibilities, even in the worst case scenario. Let's consider some stuff here-I successfully blocked both Someone and Yanqush on consecutive nights. This means NEITHER can be the SK, which is nice. As said above, SKs who are also roleblockers-I've never heard of those. Which means that our SK is almost certainly found within the group of Phoebus, Hez, and Blackberry. Not bad, just taking that into account.

Now, let's see how being mafia works out for those players. Someone can still be mafia, especially if Tigris killed Nightfall the first night (though we don't know that for sure), which would allow him to be roleblocked without compromising him. The same is not necessarily true for Yanqush. If Yanqush is the ONLY member of his mafia left, he would have had to make a kill last night, which he did. But this is impossible since he was roleblocked. If there are two members of the mafia, then Yanqush could be mafia, but this would require the other member of the mafia to have committed the kill. In any case, the odds of this happening are high enough that I'm crossing Yanqush off my lynch list for today.

Second, though today is not lynch or lose, there's still a possibility that this might be the last day. After we lynch whoever we lynch, there will be 5 people left. Now, let's assume worst-case scenario and assume that we don't lynch the SK or we lynch only one member of a mafia when a second exists(or we don't lynch a mafia at all), and a vig still remains (all of which are possible). Then we probably have 3 kills again if they choose targets different from me or the doc and then there are only 2 people. Regardless of alignment, at that time, the game is over. There's also the possibility that the mafia and SK would die through cross-killing tonight as well, giving the game to the town. However, if both me and the doc survive today's lynch, then we can both roleblock and heal tonight. All that would be needed is for one to be roleblocked-healed and we would have another day tomorrow. Or if we lynched mafia/SK, the game might be over quicker. The point of this is to show that we have to make our decision very carefully. I personally think at this time we're better leaving me and the doc alive so the town has a better chance to win, rather than leaving things up to chance with night.

If I screwed up anywhere in my analysis of the last two paragraphs, let me know.

Now for some response to quotes.

Viking, if you blocked someone, I think it would be advisible not to admit who you blocked, they

are

the doctor.

I'm afraid I don't see how this is so. We've got 6 people. I blocked Yanqush. Now, Yanqush CANNOT be one of the 3 killing people. But that still means that he can be either the doc or the extra role (which would require Hez to be either scum or somebody trying to disguise his doctor role, both of which are possible). But I'm not seeing how this requires that Yanqush MUST be the doctor.

The following roles seem to be what we have:

Mafia
Serial Killer
Vigilante
Doctor
Vikingfan's role (assuming he's innocent)
My role

So if someone claims a role that's not one of the ones listed above, we automatically know either they or vikingfan is lying.

Not necessarily- we have no reason yet to trust you, unless your role is verifiable by others. We know if someone claims another role, you could be lying as well. Not attacking you, but I'm not ready yet to take anything at face value.

FOS Blackberry

. I don't like the way he's assuming he knows who's guilty and who's innocent. That would make sense if he were a cop with investigations, but I think we lost all our investigation roles already.

I'd just like to add one thing to vikingfan:

Your role is cleared.

You are not.

(Translation: I believe your role claim, but not necessarily your alignment. I can't trust that you are pro-town)

That's fine- none of us have to believe each other at this point. What I'm trying to do is establish well-grounded knowledge so we can create assumptions as I did above.

Sorry for such a long post but I had a lot of thoughts I wanted to put out there. Feedback?

[Blackberry]

Here is my logic.

Someone was beat up , posting restirctions, therefore he isn't a SK. (Because the SK kill went through).

I continue to believe Yanquash is pro-town because of his earlier posts. His being roleblocked contributes to this. He can't be SK, Mafia, or Vig.

Viking is roleblocker and he proved that day one when no one counterclaimed. If he is roleblocker he can't be SK. Though it is still possible he is mafia.

That leaves me, HezLucky and Phoebus. I know I'm not the SK or mafia. I'm also confident I know the identidy of the vig. Therefore it is between HezLucky and Phoebus. Between the two I am more inclined to believe Phoebus is evil. I don't know why, but at the very beginning I thought he was SK, he gave me a weird vibe. I am extremely confident that he is SK, if not that, then mafia. I would appreciate it if someone seconded my motion for him to claim.

If you guys want, I will post a list of what I believe everyone is. This will clarify why I think Phoebus is anti-town.

~ Blackberry

[vikingfan]

Correct, blackberry, though you're not carrying your logic far enough. I looked in other games and the mafia roleblocker (which is what you guys, if I'm mafia, think I am) has the choice EITHER to block or to kill. I've blocked both nights, which means, even if I'm mafia, (which I'm not) I have a partner. Yanqush is already cleared for being an SK and if he's mafia, he has to have a partner too (due to being roleblocked last night). This doesn't mean you can disregard either me or Yanqush altogether (that wouldn't be good gameplay). What it does mean is that out of Hez, Phoebus, Blackberry, and Someone, at least 2 out of 4 are scum, which is 50%. We know Someone's not SK, so we know the SK belongs to someon out of the first three.

Now, this is very useful. Right now, we've got an empty role (which Hez has already staked out for himself). But we've got two bad guys in that group of 4, which means we're going to have to have a counterclaim, which will be extremely helpful at this stage of the game.

For that reason, I'm not ready to second your recommendation, Blackberry-there's a 50% chance you're scum, so I'm going to want to hear from everyone on this one.

[HezLucky]

Erm .. vikingfan, was that FOS intended for me?

I know my role is not verifiable. I was more posting that so I could organize my own thoughts and so the town could see them.

Huge FOS: Phoebus

for the reasons discussed above.

Vikingfan, you're cleared ... I doubt an SK/Mafia has more than 1 night choice .. though you could be SK, I think it's better for me to start going after others who are more likely to be evil.

Looking at the lynch scene, I see only two people without night choices ... the probable doctor and whatever the hell I am. I trust vikingfan's role meaning Yanqush is cleared from yesterday as well ... among Someone, Blackberry and Phoebus, this simply means we have a mafia, a serial killer and a vigilante.

But Someone was blocked... so he's not the serial killer obviously and neither is he the mafia (unless Tigris made the kill or something) ...

Someone's not quite cleared, but I like him more htan the other two right now.

FOS: Blackberry and Phoebus

Not confirmed guilty (hah!) but guilty enough to vote for them...

but just incase Someone is a member of a mafia family who didn't make the kill, I have to hear these two so that I'm not randomly choosing between them and can choose the more evil of the two.

And yes, vikingfan, I am aware that almost all of the above assumes my innocence. But so far, my story checks out:
- I have no night choice
- I said that before you said I wasn't blocked.

Of course, there are other scenarios you probably have to consider (ie. what if I lied about the first?) but so be it, that's why you're just gonna hafta play the game. I wish I could confirm my role but nothing short of providing you with the password to my account so you could see for yourself would do that.
And, of course, that's not allowed now is it?


SUMMARY: Blackberry and Phoebus both appear guilty, vikingfan and Yanqush appear to be clear unless we have more than one mafia remaining, Someone is not serial killer, though he could be mafia. Blackberry and Phoebus look like they're in the worst shape at the moment.

Hit me with your analysis, guys!

[vikingfan]

Add yourself to that list in the summary and I agree with you 100%.

Due to Someone not being the SK, I'm more inclined to go with a lynch from Lucky, Phoebus, or Blackberry.

Actually, that FOS was intended for Blackberry, but I think it's getting obvious the likelihood of who's who.

It's not for sure that the vig is in that group of 3-someone could be a vig as well. I'm now inclined to ask for a role claim from those 3 (I'll see about someone eventually).

The reason why I can't buy your statements above about your having no night choice is because if you're mafia or SK, you would have seen your night choice die in the OP and thus know you weren't roleblocked.

This is going to be one interesting endgame!

[HezLucky]

That's exactly why I can't prove my innocence.

There's one thing that doesn't check out though.

Could you please repeat your roleclaim, vikingfan? (Yes, you)

When ,exactly, does someone get a post restriction?

[vikingfan]

When I beat them up-it seems to be part and parcel with the roleblocking.

In any case, I am the neighborhood bully who uses his brawn for good. Iin mafia terms, I'm a protown roleblocker. I can beat one person up at night and block them (if they have an ability). If I understand halo correctly, if they do not have a night ability (or if they chose not to use it), they get a post restriction. I beat up Someone last night, but since both kills went through, it's clear he's not the SK (though he could still be part of the mafia, just not the member who killed nightfall).

That's my ability. Halo wasn't clear on it (and when I asked, he refused to give me details), but I think all that's necessary is that they have an ability, not necessarily that they use it that night. Maybe someone who knows more about roleblocking than I do can answer this. I think it's probable both Someone and Yanqush have one, so...

[vikingfan]

And just so you know, my quote is not from my PM, it's from my earlier claim, just so I don't get modkilled.

[Phoebus]

Funnily enough, Yanq gave me a weird vibe earlier.
Maybe he's cleared of SK-ness but not scumminess.

[vikingfan]

Right now, I'd like to hear a claim from Blackberry, Phoebus, and Lucky for the reasons listed above-you're all on the hot seat. Due to the reasoning above, I KNOW one of you is scum, and possibly two of you. Due to that,we're going to have probably at least two people claiming the same role so that'll cut our odds down. To me, this seems like the next logical step.

[HezLucky]

k, You two first.

It's strategically better for me and the town if I claim last.

[Phoebus]

*shrug*

I beat up EYNH based on hints I picked up yesterday and during a night time re read.
I've let two SKs win when I didn't go with a hunch, one in Minas Tirith and I forget the other game. I was not going to sit back this time.

[Blackberry]

I'm Vig, and if we go to another night period, I request Doc save me.

[HezLucky]

Huh?

You're both claiming vig?