Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

[Nachomamma8]

So, if he's made several good cases for people being scum (especally when he's made more cases them many of the other people in the game), then how is he "not scumhunting"?

I suppose it's more along the lines of he's not scumhunting effectively. To say that he's made more cases than many of the other people in the game is misleading because only one or two of his cases have a lot of substance.

Are "advice", or "witty retorts" scumtells, if he is also scumhunting?

If he's giving this advice or answering with witty retorts more than he actually scumhunts, then yes.

(Also, I don't really think any of the posts he's made are "spam", I think most or all of them serve a purpose).

Bogre: crazy or scum? Tonight at 11.

Why are you defending the scum, Yos?

^ scum

^ Kill this guy.

Keep digging, scum.

^ still scum

I wouldn't say all, Yos.

[Yosarian2]

All 5 of those posts certanly did serve a purpose.

You really don't think it serves a purpose for Xyl to point out a specific post that he thinks makes a person look more suspicious, to increase the pressure on someone, and to make clear how convinced he was that that person was scum?

Saying, in response to a specific post,"keep digging, scum" or "still scum" is obviously a useful post, because he's saying that that specific post looked scummy. In most of those cases, I agreed with him (although he turned out to be incorrect). But, yes, that's a good example of how be an aggressive scumhunter and increase the pressure on a person.

If you have a problem with those posts, Nacho, why don't you go back, look at the post Xyl was responding to, and say if you agree or disagree with Xyl's reaction to them? For example, look at this sequence of posts:

Bogre is pretty clearly in the wrong here. i don't know if it makes him scum or not, but he's defiantly not making sense.

Bogre is pretty clearly in the wrong here. i don't know if it makes him scum or not, but he's defiantly not making sense.

Define why I am clearly in the wrong. Why are you defending the scum, Yos? Rite has scumslipped and should be shot. Sarag is hung up on the fact that of everyone, I was asked to answer 'why shouldn't you shoot me'. Well, the fact is that she shouldn't shoot me because a) she would die, and thats bad for the town, and b) it would be much better if she shot Rite.

I am curious as to what a better answer of that would be, Sarag. Obviously she will see that I am scumhunting (and actually have found one). Why shouldn't she shoot you?

Your first feeling should be, 'because then she'd die.' If its not, then YOU ARE SCUM.

Why are you defending the scum, Yos?

^ scum

If you had been in the game at the time, would you have agreed with Xyl's assessment that Bogre's reaction to my post looked scummy there? Why or why not?

You could do that for all of those posts; you may disagree with them, you may question Xyl's motive for them seeing as how Bogre came up town, but I hardly think you can call any of them "spam".

[Nachomamma8]

You really don't think it serves a purpose for Xyl to point out a specific post that he thinks makes a person look more suspicious, to increase the pressure on someone, and to make clear how convinced he was that that person was scum?

It might serve a purpose, but for newer players like me, I need that purpose explained. Pointing to someone and saying they're scum doesn't help me AT ALL; I need a little bit of explanation WHY they're scum. By pointing at someone and calling them scum without explaining, he's also giving them nothing to defend against, which doesn't help the town in the end.

If you had been in the game at the time, would you have agreed with Xyl's assessment that Bogre's reaction to my post looked scummy there? Why or why not?

I can't answer this question. I replaced into the game where Bogre is the gunbearer, making him a confirmed townie, and it just looked like Xyl was calling him scum without a real reason. So bias clouds my judgment on that one.

You could do that for all of those posts; you may disagree with them, you may question Xyl's motive for them seeing as how Bogre came up town, but I hardly think you can call any of them "spam".

I see what you mean now.

[HackerHuck]

I really like Sarag's post 587 - except for the part where she says "either interpretation has HackerHuck as scum". I'd sure like to see what Xyl has to say about the scum slip he saw from Sarag that wasn't the really weak one that was Howard's big reveal.

Nacho's stubbornness about his case on Xyl doesn't strike me as being overly scummy and his last comment about Xyl going after Bogre makes some sense.

Yes, I can certainly make the case that Ortolan hasn't done any scum hunting. He basically admitted that he's sat down on his haunches after posting his initial scumlist and won't bother looking at anyone else because he hasn't been proven wrong. I know he's wrong about one of suspects and I'd be willing to bet that he's no better than 50% on those four.

Looking back at rewq, I didn't find anything too suspicious about him other than an odd 180 on his response to one of my comments.

I was thinking about Yos' contributions and I wasn't really sure who he was targeting as scum, so I decided to take a look at him in isolation. This post really struck me.

I don't really have a good third candidate. Yosarian2 keeps sliding under my radar and seems to be playing very reactively

...

what?

I've been very active, and quite agressivly scumhunting the entire game. I haven't been "reactive" at all, other people have been forced to react to my attacks. Including you.

So what the heck are you talking about?

I had a very similar feeling in that he was under the radar, yet you know that he's active from reading. A lot of his posts are very defencive - of others - and he's only had a couple of real pushes on players that I saw - Bogre and then Howard. That's more real scumhunting than I've seen from a few people, but it's kind of buried by a lot of his other posting. I'd like to know what Yosarian2 thinks of Sarag's case on Howard and whether that jives with the feelings he got.

Regarding questions for DoS, I'd like to know whether he thinks Xyl is town.
I'd also like to know who he'd shoot out of Me, Sarag, or Drake and why.

[Xylthixlm]

I'd sure like to see what Xyl has to say about the scum slip he saw from Sarag that wasn't the really weak one that was Howard's big reveal.

Uh what? You must be talking about this...

The answer is that it is a

scum

slip. Sarag was a possible target D1. She knew that. She was afraid of being shot and therefore not being around D2. To paraphrase Bogre: I'm not

afraid

of being shot. There is no reason to fear the business end of the gun . . . unless you are scum.

I think you have picked up the totally wrong part of the slip.

And here was the "slip":

Some of this probably won't get answered until day 2, but I wanted to get it in before the day ends in case I'm shot.

Howard's explanation about being "afraid" is silly and stupid; townies shouldn't want to be shot anyways, if it was really an "afraid of being shot" thing it wouldn't be scummy. The slip is that even if a townie was shot

they would still be around D2

. But a scum wouldn't be. Which I think is what Howard really meant, but his explanation sucked.

[Yosarian2]

I'd like to know what Yosarian2 thinks of Sarag's case on Howard and whether that jives with the feelings he got.

Well, in general, I'm not a big fan of looking for contradictions or mind changes as scumhunting; people change their minds, or re-read and come to totally different conclusions. I'm not interested in defending Howard, obv, since I'm pretty sure he's scum, but I don't think that the case Sarag posted against him in 587 is that strong.

This specific point:

His position on Xylthixlm seems to change every time he mentions him:

Overall, Xylthixlm doesn't look good in hindsight.

And then post 450 where he lists Xyl as one of the "most effective" players.

Howard, do you think the most effective scumhunting is coming from scum players?

And in these two posts we have an outright contradiction:

@Bogre: Based on the scum lists, Xylthixlm has been pretty much accepted as town.

I don't like how he's stating that Xyl has been accepted as town. I don't think you can make the connection that agreeing with Xyl's scumlist is the same as finding him town.

I'm not saying it's about the scum lists. Try again.

Is it about the scum lists or not? If not, what is it about?
.

Is interesting, but not primarily for the contradictions. More that it goes back to what I was saying earlier; I got the feeling Howard was really dancing and weaving on the issue of Xyl, and my gut is that he's doing it because it kind of scares him that Xyl has such widespread support.

My impression is that he would like to undermine the trust people have in Xyl and stop him from being thought of as "confirmed", but dosn't dare to take him on directly at this stage of the game when Xyl has so much popular support. That's very much a scum tactic; if Howard were actually town who was suspicious of Xyl, I'd expect him to go after Xyl in a much more straightforward way then this.

[Sarag]

I really like Sarag's post 587 - except for the part where she says "either interpretation has HackerHuck as scum".

Feel free to provide a townie interpretation, I can't think of one.

I had a very similar feeling in that he was under the radar, yet you know that he's active from reading.

I had this lingering feeling for a while but I've more or less accepted Yos' defense, and he's been seeming pretty town to me lately.

The slip is that even if a townie was shot

they would still be around D2

. But a scum wouldn't be. Which I think is what Howard really meant, but his explanation sucked.

This is how I interpreted Howard's point as well, it's certainly more compelling than the fear of being shot line. I obviously made a mistake and said something stupid. You all have to decide if that was scum forgetting to pretend to be town, or town forgetting the rules of this game.

Is interesting, but not primarily for the contradictions. More that it goes back to what I was saying earlier; I got the feeling Howard was really dancing and weaving on the issue of Xyl, and my gut is that he's doing it because it kind of scares him that Xyl has such widespread support.

I can see that explanation, Yos, it has merit. I would be interested to see Howard's comment about the inconsistencies and about your case.

[HackerHuck]

My impression is that he would like to undermine the trust people have in Xyl and stop him from being thought of as "confirmed", but dosn't dare to take him on directly at this stage of the game when Xyl has so much popular support. That's very much a scum tactic; if Howard were actually town who was suspicious of Xyl, I'd expect him to go after Xyl in a much more straightforward way then this.

Interesting point. Do you think that would mean Xyl's list is pretty accurate if Howard is scum or do you think he's planting a seed to get Xyl shot because his list is all wet?

I really like Sarag's post 587 - except for the part where she says "either interpretation has HackerHuck as scum".

Feel free to provide a townie interpretation, I can't think of one.

Well, if you're only looking at it from those two avenues, you're correct that there is no town interpretation. However, that's more of a false dilemma. The actuality of it is that I'm town not wanting to get shot (funny how neither town nor scum want to get shot, so it really isn't much of a tell) and that I felt (and still do for the most part) that Xyl was town and with Bogre tunneling on two townies, being wrong about Bogre would likely cause two dead townies. I've explained this all before, so if you don't follow my thought process by now, it's doubtful you ever will.

[DragonsofSummer]

Rereading, will post something worthwhile tomorrow, but honestly I didn't expect this day to last nearly this long. Also if for some reason I get shot before my post, I will be shooting Ortolan tomorrow just so everyone knows.

[Yosarian2]

My impression is that he would like to undermine the trust people have in Xyl and stop him from being thought of as "confirmed", but dosn't dare to take him on directly at this stage of the game when Xyl has so much popular support. That's very much a scum tactic; if Howard were actually town who was suspicious of Xyl, I'd expect him to go after Xyl in a much more straightforward way then this.

Interesting point. Do you think that would mean Xyl's list is pretty accurate if Howard is scum or do you think he's planting a seed to get Xyl shot because his list is all wet?

Hmm. Well, it could go either way. I was mainly thinking that:

A. Scum wouldn't want someone pro-town to be basically "unlynchable"; they would want to at least have a chance to get Xyl shot in endgame if they needed to.

B. Anyone who's a good, well-known player, that's actively scumhunting, and that's universally trusted is a huge inherent threat to the scum, especally if they don't have a night kill.

I will say that if Howard flips scum, I'll be almost 100% confident that Xyl is town.

[Bogre]

Okay. I apologize for not getting around to this game much- I just kept pushing back finishing the re-read, and procrastinating.

Anyways, even if I miss today, I think a nice tactic would be for the gunbearer to list their reads before they shoot. As I was rereading I thought it would have been really nice if Vala had stated who -else- she thought might have been scum. I'm not sure giving town reads would be beneficial, though.

So, here are my scum reads, and everyone has until deadline to give last thoughts:

Sarag- Slight

He was really soft towards me day 1 (from which he was accused of coaching), but he brings up good comments about HR this day. I'm not sure anything else from him is good. I don't know whether to chalk up his absence day 2 as holidays or not.

Nachomamma- Heavy

More on the basis of Drake and Rewq, but interestingly enough has been primarily knocking at Xyl. (Like Howard) Rewq was very scummy, didn't contribute too much, and wasn't reasoning well.

HowardRoark-Heavy

Posted a lot of parroting, some pointed comments after Vala's shots that didn't make sense. Secondly, he has contradicted himself a couple of times, and appeared pretty scummy, especially with his heavy attacks at those on my wagon.

Note Nachomamma and HR haven't said anything about each other.

Noncontributors

DOS, Almaster, Ortolan

They haven't really said anything.

[Yosarian2]

As I was rereading I thought it would have been really nice if Vala had stated who -else- she thought might have been scum. I'm not sure giving town reads would be beneficial, though.

Eh, there's no harm in giving town reads. Scum don't have any nightkills this game, after all.

[ortolan]

I don't mean to "not contribute", I already have my scum-reads- they came about through elaborate analysis at the beginning of the game, enough for me to be confident- particularly when none have been tested yet. I was vindicated when you flipped town, which I knew would happen. I also know Nachomamma8 will flip town- PLEASE DO NOT SHOOT HIM, I would much rather you shoot me. I just re-read him, and he confirmed what I already knew from his predecessor, that he was town. Look at the way he attacks pretty much everyone- I don't think he's defended or buddied to anyone yet. He attacks the people on his wagon for being scummy while also calling out lurkers (the two lurkers he called out are scum also).

Sarag is a much much much better kill. Look at how perfectly 587 sets you up to misvig Nacho, then for Nacho to successfully vig Sarag, then for us to assume the two of her buddies she named afterwards are town. Wowzor.

Please kill the people on my list. Please. They're all scum (Sarag, Hacker, DoS, Almaster). Do not kill Nacho. I guarantee he's town. If I am wrong about anyone it would be the last two people on that list. Xyl, you said you agreed with the 3 people in my list, won't you help me convince Bogre to shoot Sarag please.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, after post 602, I am less suspicious of Nacho. I'm not as certain as Ort is, but I no longer think his attack on Xyl is a big scumtell; I think I can see where he might be coming from now.

[Xylthixlm]

I think Nacho is no longer the person I want shot next. But I don't think Sarag is, either. Hmmm.

It's either HackerHuck or HowardRoark, but I'm not sure which.

[Xylthixlm]

Pulling this back up so I don't forget it...

I'll amend: correct play as a

suspected

townie. This game rests more squarely on the decision-making/scum-hunting abilities of the individual rather than the group. Since the penalty for being incorrectly suspected isn't death - and since survival instinct won't kick in - the only person coming under suspicion who should hedge at the prospect of being shot this early is a scum player. Yes, a townie under early suspicion in the interests of the town playing a perfect game might try desperately to avoid the gun, but the unique mechanics of the game make it so that weaseling out from under the gun should basically be a heavy scum tell.

1) DraketheFake is completely wrong here.
2) DraketheFake is probably scum here.

[ortolan]

I'm pretty sure Howard isn't scum either (I think I got him mixed up thinking Nacho replaced him initially). What happened to Sarag, Xyl (although Hacker is equally good)?

[Bogre]

As I was rereading I thought it would have been really nice if Vala had stated who -else- she thought might have been scum. I'm not sure giving town reads would be beneficial, though.

Eh, there's no harm in giving town reads. Scum don't have any nightkills this game, after all.

There is if town get complacent or scum get encouraged that I think they're doing well.

[ortolan]

forcing town reads is far more likely to trap the scum in this setup

[Bogre]

Sarag is a much much much better kill. Look at how perfectly 587 sets you up to misvig Nacho, then for Nacho to successfully vig Sarag, then for us to assume the two of her buddies she named afterwards are town. Wowzor.

Pretty sure he was talking about Howardroark.

[ortolan]

as I said, I had the two townies mixed up

[HowardRoark]

Concerning Xylthixlm: I went back to examine the scum lists generated D1. That's when I noticed that Xylthixlm had posted his several days before the question was asked and others posted theirs. Seeing how that may have affected others' lists, I became a bit concerned. So, I poked at him. He's either good scum or a town asset. I can't be any more certain than that. I couldn't just let him play the town leader without mentioning my concerns.


Concerning Sarag: I want her dead. I believe that it was a scum slip. Whether or not you believe that my explanation sucked (no offense taken), look at her change in play after many of you ignored my catch. I believe that she is not stupid and has made a good chance at redemption with many of you. It doesn't fool me.

Her case: 1) Slicey "could be" one of the most effective scum hunters. How do we know who was effective until we shoot scum? 2) As mentioned above, I was nervous about Xylthixlm's role and apparent leading of the town. I never said he was scum and he "could be" one of the most effective scum hunters. 3) There's also post 398 where I talk about Xylthixlm giving "sound advice" to the gunbearer.

Do you think that would mean Xyl's list is pretty accurate if Howard is scum or do you think he's planting a seed to get Xyl shot because his list is all wet?

If I were scum knowing that his list is wrong . . . why would I question him leading the town? It'd make more sense to let him lead and whoever became the gunbearer would possibly be following him setting up more bad shots.


@Bogre: Tell me what didn't make sense to you.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm pretty sure Howard isn't scum either (I think I got him mixed up thinking Nacho replaced him initially). What happened to Sarag, Xyl (although Hacker is equally good)?

Let's shoot Hacker.

[Sarag]

Also if for some reason I get shot before my post, I will be shooting Ortolan tomorrow just so everyone knows.

This strikes me as kind of scummy... Why say this? There would be plenty of time tomorrow, unless he's saying he will auto-shoot (and it seems like he is). The only reason to do that is to threaten town that he'll be a bad gun bearer in order to discourage Bogre from shooting him. I know we had that whole discussion at the end of day 1 with Vala not heeding this kind of thing, but DoS has obviously been skimming so he may still think Bogre would fall for it.

Bogre, what's your read on HackerHuck? I'm surprised to see he didn't rate a mention in your last post.

Sarag- Slight

He was really soft towards me day 1

I didn't have anything strong to go on, Bogre. Aggression is really not my style, especially day 1, and with good reason. I was still wrong, even after I thought the evidence against you was stronger.

Nachomamma- Heavy

Drake was my top suspect on day 1, but I liked rewq a little better and Nacho even more. Town are definitely capable of poor reasoning, and nacho has seemed to be actively scumhunting, even if I think he's looking in the wrong places. I'm still uncertain because of my strong scum read on Drake and nacho certainly isn't obvtown, but I don't want to see him shot today.

HowardRoark-Heavy

I'd be happy with a Howard shot. He still hasn't explained his thought processes adequately, despite posting to address the contradictions, so I'm inclined to go with Yosarian2's interpretation.

Noncontributors

DOS, Almaster, Ortolan

They haven't really said anything.

DoS is coasting. I think you should seriously consider shooting him. He needs to be pressured early so we don't get stuck with him in end game having played like this the whole time. Bogre, what do you think of my suggestion of asking him direct questions?

Alamaster could also do with some pressure. He replaced in, so I'm inclined to give him a bit more slack than DoS.

Ortolan has been pretty active, so if you think he hasn't really said anything, then that should be setting off some major alarm bells for you. I don't agree that he hasn't said anything of content, and I've been leaning town on him so far. I've been putting his play down to arrogance and stubbornness, but I would really like it to stop. If he's town, his play isn't helping. Today has been really bad. Ortolan, just because you haven't had an unexpected alignment flip doesn't mean you don't have to re-evaluate your cases. Even if you come to the same conclusion, at least demonstrate that you've tried to test your own theories. I don't believe anyone is such a good scumhunter that they can reliably find the scum day 1, and even if you believe you are that good, you're not convincing anyone with your current play. At least find new evidence to support your cases, and try to avoid confirmation bias.

Sarag is a much much much better kill. Look at how perfectly 587 sets you up to misvig Nacho, then for Nacho to successfully vig Sarag, then for us to assume the two of her buddies she named afterwards are town. Wowzor.

OMG I can't believe you cracked my amazing plan! Oh wait, you already decided I was scum before you interpreted my post. Without the sarcasm: Ortolan is wrong and this post is not helpful.

forcing town reads is far more likely to trap the scum in this setup

Do you mean forcing scum to name who they think is town? Because Bogre was talking about saying who he thinks is town.

[HackerHuck]

Pulling this back up so I don't forget it...

I'll amend: correct play as a

suspected

townie. This game rests more squarely on the decision-making/scum-hunting abilities of the individual rather than the group. Since the penalty for being incorrectly suspected isn't death - and since survival instinct won't kick in - the only person coming under suspicion who should hedge at the prospect of being shot this early is a scum player. Yes, a townie under early suspicion in the interests of the town playing a perfect game might try desperately to avoid the gun, but

the unique mechanics of the game make it so that weaseling out from under the gun should basically be a heavy scum tell.

1) DraketheFake is completely wrong here.
2) DraketheFake is probably scum here.

Isn't the bolded part what you're using to accuse me of being scum?

Bogre, what's your read on HackerHuck? I'm surprised to see he didn't rate a mention in your last post.

I was surprised at that too.