Mini 897 - OpenSource Mafia - Game over!!

[Vaya]

Vote: Pomegrante

[Iecerint]

One thing I don't want anyone to forget about is that in the opening scene, we were told that at least one person had their alignment changed last night. I think it's important that we know who it is that might have been town yesterday but scum today, or vice versa. For that reason, tubby needs to tell us what Phate did last night, and if it was anyone else who is town, they should probably come forward now.

The opening text indicated that an unknown number of people were converted. I don't think this implies that the number was greater than zero.

Phate did not convert anyone last night. Tubby should NOT elaborate further on this point at this time.

[Iecerint]

Could you please explain every one of those?

It's not that those players are particularly scummy, but rather that everyone else is largely cleared:

1. Glork is town because he was probably a death miller (GDM).
2. Alma is probably not scum because his reaction to Faraday's gag rule is consistent with his claim. (The numbers post still bothers me, though, tbh. I really expected it to be explained when Alma claimed.)
3. Vaya is not scum for pointing out the situation with Alma in a circumstance where no one had picked up on GDM even after I'd mentioned it.
4. Given all that, UK has to be town, because there was no reason for her to stop the Vaya lynch D1 if she was scum.
5. Phate/tubby is town because of something that happened N1 and early D2. I will elaborate on this later.
6. I think SB is probably town because of her claim on Phate. She claimed it before I intimated any insight, so she cleared Phate, Cop/converter.

That leaves the 4 players on my list.

1. SSK is only town if he is insane AND UK was roleblocked as far as I can tell.
2. SP looks bad in my eyes for the unwarranted Vaya attack D1, and for vacuity.
3. FTF's D1 miller claim looks weird in light of all the gag orders elsewhere. Also, he's been a pretty on-the-backburner player all game. The only post of his I can remember is the one justifying that he wasn't likely to be 3rd party on account of his checking guilty. O_o
4. Pome is just really vacuous, even moreso than FTF. There's no disconnect in her claim, though. Come to think of it, there isn't any claim at all.

There are some holes in my theory:
1. No one is insane. This makes UK's role seem pretty silly. It could be that Faraday was insane, or that UK's role is a red-herring. But this still bothers me.
2. Alma and Glork's big early-game "breadcrumb" posts don't make any sense with their roles. I also don't like that Vaya ignored them in his post, but the GDM evidence is pretty solid IMO.

[UncertainKitten]

I get Iec's reasoning. How do you think we should test this? By lynching from the possible scum pool or lynching someone from the prob town chain to test the theory?

[AlmasterGM]

A question Almaster. Do you have any idea who this other player may be?

No clue. I could try to re-read and find it, but it would be like looking for a needle in a haystack.

Except for that GlorkDM isn't Alma's position, nothing to complain about. I'm not sure whether GlorkDM or GlorkTraitor is simpler.

The post I thought Glork was alluding to D1 was that pre-game numbers post. Glork made a similar one just after that. I had assumed they were masons who could indicate themselves to one another that way or something.

Alma, can you explain that post?

My binary confirmation had nothing to do with the game. Glork and I were not masons, so I have no insider information on his claim. I suppose it is possible he was trying to link himself to me, since his claim came on the same day I asked S_B to convert me, but I am not 100% sure of his intent on anything.

The one thing I find odd is that Glork seemed to know he was a death miller, whereas I did not. I'm not sure whether he figured it out and I didn't, or if his role PM was different from mine.

In any case, Glork as death miller makes perfect sense.

I get Iec's reasoning. How do you think we should test this? By lynching from the possible scum pool or lynching someone from the prob town chain to test the theory?

Um, what? Obviously we lynch from the possible scum pool. Why on earth would we take out townies when there are people like Pom, who looks scummy regardless of any setup theory, running around? We can kill two birds with one stone here.

I like all the arguments against Pom. My opinion on her from D1 has not changed at all. Plus, lynching her helps resolve setup theory.

Vote: Pomegranate.

[Iecerint]

Well, if you think my logic makes sense, you should obviously lynch someone on the list. I'm not convinced it should be Pome (I'm leaning SSK or FTF atm), but I do think I'm at the point where I'd support a claim from her.

Vote: Pome.

She shouldn't do it until L-1, though.

I just reread Glork's numbers post:

01001001111001110010111001001010111100110010000001001011

I don't think I screwed that up, but I might have.

Consider this a partial breadcrumb.

So...there is literally something here. Is this a standardized cipher of the English language or something? Even if Alma was just goofing off or something ( ), Glork clearly wasn't.

[UncertainKitten]

Um, what? Obviously we lynch from the possible scum pool. Why on earth would we take out townies when there are people like Pom, who looks scummy regardless of any setup theory, running around? We can kill two birds with one stone here.

How do we know they are townies? The chain works if we confirm one of you all as town.

Well, if you think my logic makes sense, you should obviously lynch someone on the list. Rolling Eyes I'm not convinced it should be Pome (I'm leaning SSK or FTF atm), but I do think I'm at the point where I'd support a claim from her. Vote: Pome. She shouldn't do it until L-1, though.

As I said, testing your logic. But I'm fine with lynching from the not clear pool.

[Iecerint]

I think the only circumstance where we should lynch from the not-clear pool is if someone decides that there are severe, problematic Vaya-Alma connections. Otherwise, I'm pretty confident in the other clears given GDM and my secret towntell from Phate.

[SocioPath]

3. Vaya is not scum for pointing out the situation with Alma in a circumstance where no one had picked up on GDM even after I'd mentioned it.

I've commonly seen scum be some of the most helpful players in a game.
So that doesn't rule Vaya out.
But I wouldn't lynch Vaya at this point anyways.
I have a somewhat controversal view in that I would rather lynch VI/terribly anti-town town, than a helpful scum.

4. Given all that, UK has to be town, because there was no reason for her to stop the Vaya lynch D1 if she was scum.

I've commonly seen scum derail townie lynches.
So that doesn't rule UK out.

5. Phate/tubby is town because of something that happened N1 and early D2. I will elaborate on this later.

I don't personally know what this is about, so I can't say much.
From my outside point of view, I think the whole thing made Phate look worse.

6. I think SB is probably town because of her claim on Phate. She claimed it before I intimated any insight, so she cleared Phate, Cop/converter.

More of that Phate stuff that I am out of the loop for, apparently.

[Iecerint]

I think "here is some flavor; enjoy" is a common scum help strategy. So is "I like X's popular (but incidentally mistaken) argument. Let me add to it!." I don't think Vaya's case goes like that. Also, he had already established the prior viewpoint (Almacrumb); the perspective he was implicitly discrediting was ultimately his own.

Scum derailing a townie lynch is one thing. Scum derailing a townie lynch given a claimed Cop guilty is something else. Sure, scum can always do something just to appear town, but that's the angle that requires a degree of suspension of disbelief IMO. I would be very surprised to learn that UK was scum.

I think Alma's circumstance is more tenuous than either of those players. I agree that Vaya is maybe slighty shaky, though.

Is your Phate viewpoint based on his repeated desire for a massclaim, or for something else?

[AlmasterGM]

How do we know they are townies? The chain works if we confirm one of you all as town.

Yes, but why would we start by lynching someone on the town list? If they're town, then 1) it could have just been dumb luck and had nothing to do with the theory and 2) we lynched a townie. If we lynch from the scumlist, we are less likely to get random results, and we get rid of a scummy player while doing it. Lynching from scum list = good.

I think Alma's circumstance is more tenuous than either of those players. I agree that Vaya is maybe slighty shaky, though.

I like how you go from "Alm and Vaya are probably town" to "it's tenuous / shaky." I actually agree with SP's post, but it irks me the way you are so willing to flip your advocacy around.

[Iecerint]

I think you are both probably town. However, I still have unanswered questions about you. Namely, I don't like that you deny meaning behind the binary confirmation whereas there is evidence that Glork took his very seriously. I'm also (still) not crazy about your conversion request. You have explained these (messing around/thought there was more to SB's role), but those explanations are not exactly excellent IMO.

I don't think this is really new information. I added it to highlight a contrast between the players I perceive to be more questionable and the players SP believes to be more questionable. UK in particular looks good given VayaTown IMO.

[Pomegranate]

1. SSK is only town if he is insane AND UK was roleblocked as far as I can tell.

This confuses me. You said

Could someone explain how SSK's breadcrumb suggests miller?

It doesn't suggest "miller," but it does suggest "something is up." The miller claim fits with that. The crumb is "I have reason to believe that my results are accurate." The ultimate reason was that the information comes at a price (millerhood).

This made me think you thought SSK was town, by explaining how he made sense. But now you put him at the top of your scumlist. Please explain.

Also: I think Alma's binary confirm didn't mean anything, personally. Yes, Glork said that his had a meaning, but I don't think Alma's did. It was a stupid confirmation post. I think Iec is a bit obsessed with the idea that it had some meaning that could greatly help our scumhunting. No.

[UncertainKitten]

Yes, but why would we start by lynching someone on the town list? If they're town, then 1) it could have just been dumb luck and had nothing to do with the theory and 2) we lynched a townie. If we lynch from the scumlist, we are less likely to get random results, and we get rid of a scummy player while doing it. Lynching from scum list = good.

As I said, it was just a question. I honestly wasn't sure which would be the best play. Hopefully others will answer.

[Vaya]

One thing I don't want anyone to forget about is that in the opening scene, we were told that at least one person had their alignment changed last night. I think it's important that we know who it is that might have been town yesterday but scum today, or vice versa. For that reason, tubby needs to tell us what Phate did last night, and if it was anyone else who is town, they should probably come forward now.

The opening text indicated that an unknown number of people were converted. I don't think this implies that the number was greater than zero.

Phate did not convert anyone last night. Tubby should NOT elaborate further on this point at this time.

Alright, that makes sense. And if you don't think tubby needs to say anything about his results, I'm fine with that now.

2. Alma and Glork's big early-game "breadcrumb" posts don't make any sense with their roles. I also don't like that Vaya ignored them in his post, but the GDM evidence is pretty solid IMO.

You're still reading too much into this. If you didn't know, Alma's binary post was just him saying "/confirm" in binary. As he told you himself, it means nothing in this game, he was clearly just joking around in a game with all this computer-related flavor. There's nothing to read into here.

As for Glork's breadcrumb, there's not anything I can really say about it. It's not that the breadcrumb makes no sense in regards to his role, I'm sure it does relate to it in some obscure way. But as he told us himself, we wouldn't be able to figure out what exactly it means without him explaining it to us, as would be the case with any good breadcrumb. I can say though that it probably has nothing to do with Almaster or his confirm post.

I get Iec's reasoning. How do you think we should test this? By lynching from the possible scum pool or lynching someone from the prob town chain to test the theory?

Lynching someone we think is town here would be bad play, and it wouldn't work as you seem to think it would anyway. This town chain isn't so solid that revealing one person on it as town would completely confirm the rest as town. It's not impossible, for instance, for me to be scum who derailed the Alma wagon to look town, or for you, UK, to be scum who stopped my lynch for the same reason.

[Iecerint]

No, it's not impossible that UK and/or Vaya could be scum, but it's fairly remote.

If Alma was just saying /confirm in binary, WHY THE HELL DIDN'T HE JUST SAY SO? Gosh. How annoying. Is there a cipher somewhere online so I can confirm that?

You seem to know what Glork said, even if you're apparently not sure why he said it. What did he say? I like closure. ^^

Pome, I was answering Vaya's question. SSK's meaning was pretty clear to me. That doesn't mean he isn't scum. Also, I should clarify that the order of the 4 names on my list isn't the order of scuminess. I made it by starting with the playerlist on the first page and deleting players with the logic I mentioned until I reached a manageable set. So that's the only reason why SSK is at the top of my list.

[Vaya]

http://home2.paulschou.net/tools/xlate/

Iec, this is the site I used to translate from binary.

If you enter what Glork posted, none of the results appear to be anything coherent. You can check it yourself if you want.

[Iecerint]

Thank ye innit. Mystery solved, etc.

Waiting for some residual discussion and for tubby to catch up.

[UncertainKitten]

Lynching someone we think is town here would be bad play, and it wouldn't work as you seem to think it would anyway. This town chain isn't so solid that revealing one person on it as town would completely confirm the rest as town. It's not impossible, for instance, for me to be scum who derailed the Alma wagon to look town, or for you, UK, to be scum who stopped my lynch for the same reason.

But you understand my logic. I agree that this might make more sense.

[AlmasterGM]

Pomegranate, who are your top three suspects right now? Who do you think we should lynch today?

[MafiaSSK]

Could you please explain every one of those?

It's not that those players are particularly scummy, but rather that everyone else is largely cleared:

1. Glork is town because he was probably a death miller (GDM).
2. Alma is probably not scum because his reaction to Faraday's gag rule is consistent with his claim. (The numbers post still bothers me, though, tbh. I really expected it to be explained when Alma claimed.)
3. Vaya is not scum for pointing out the situation with Alma in a circumstance where no one had picked up on GDM even after I'd mentioned it.
4. Given all that, UK has to be town, because there was no reason for her to stop the Vaya lynch D1 if she was scum.
5. Phate/tubby is town because of something that happened N1 and early D2. I will elaborate on this later.
6. I think SB is probably town because of her claim on Phate. She claimed it before I intimated any insight, so she cleared Phate, Cop/converter.

That leaves the 4 players on my list.

1. SSK is only town if he is insane AND UK was roleblocked as far as I can tell.
2. SP looks bad in my eyes for the unwarranted Vaya attack D1, and for vacuity.
3. FTF's D1 miller claim looks weird in light of all the gag orders elsewhere. Also, he's been a pretty on-the-backburner player all game. The only post of his I can remember is the one justifying that he wasn't likely to be 3rd party on account of his checking guilty. O_o
4. Pome is just really vacuous, even moreso than FTF. There's no disconnect in her claim, though. Come to think of it, there isn't any claim at all.

There are some holes in my theory:
1. No one is insane. This makes UK's role seem pretty silly. It could be that Faraday was insane, or that UK's role is a red-herring. But this still bothers me.
2. Alma and Glork's big early-game "breadcrumb" posts don't make any sense with their roles. I also don't like that Vaya ignored them in his post, but the GDM evidence is pretty solid IMO.

If there are holes in your theory, then why be so sure of it?

[Snow_Bunny]

Ok, I liked Vaya's 967 and Iec's 977. However, I kind of agree with SP that the list *can* be extended to Vaya and UK. However, I'll rather go with the 4 likely suspects.

Let me see if I get SSK's claim well. He has a one-shot day investigation that turns him into miller after expended? If that's truth, I'll be nominating Sly for most complex role in the Scummies.

Pom needs to claim.

[SocioPath]

However, I'll rather go with the

4 likely suspects.

That is a terrible misobservation.

[Iecerint]

Well, if you have an alternate view of things that take things like that into account, I invite you to share it with the class.

Also, the numbers breadcrumb is now resolved, and I can't even remember why I thought the insanity issue was a big deal. 3/4 of the investigative roles (Phate, Faraday, SSK) still have the potential of having been insane. So that's no big deal, either.

SP, what'd'ya mean?

[Snow_Bunny]

However, I'll rather go with the

4 likely suspects.

That is a terrible misobservation.

How come?