Mini 904 - Narnia: LWW Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #550 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 3:51 am

Post by kikuchiyo »

Madcraw: Nice summary of my posts. You even pointed out where I made my "pressure" vote, and then where it turned into a real vote. 143 was posted before I checked up on Starbuck's actions. I voted her to pressure her to get back into the game. Then she said:
Starbuck wrote:If you do a profile search of my posts, you'll see that the only thing I've done mafia wise in the past few days was set up the game I'm modding. I've had to leave my games by the wayside.
So, I did a profile search and turned up the FACT that she had posted only five times in her modded game and made fourteen other posts in several other games. She was never able to reconcile this LIE. Her play spiraled downward from there imo.

Manho: I am voting Snail for the Narninian case and his failure to qualify his description of RBT's behavior. I am waiting on a response from him before I post my next segment because some of what I have to say will depend on his response. I am investigating him currently. I have removed my vote to avoid an untimely lynch and to encourage a bit more participation. Do you have any thoughts on anyone else?
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Post Post #551 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 4:40 am

Post by MadCrawdad »

kikuchiyo wrote:Madcraw: Nice summary of my posts. You even pointed out where I made my "pressure" vote, and then where it turned into a real vote. 143 was posted before I checked up on Starbuck's actions. I voted her to pressure her to get back into the game. Then she said:
Starbuck wrote:If you do a profile search of my posts, you'll see that the only thing I've done mafia wise in the past few days was set up the game I'm modding. I've had to leave my games by the wayside.
So, I did a profile search and turned up the FACT that she had posted only five times in her modded game and made fourteen other posts in several other games. She was never able to reconcile this LIE. Her play spiraled downward from there imo.
Read post 151 again. You said that you checked her activity
before
you voted.
kikuchiyo wrote:Starbuck: How is giving you three days to respond to pressure before voting you a "quick" turnaround? You posted an accusation at bv310 on Sat. Jan 12 at 12 PM(my time). You came back today.

In between you posted to this site 19 times in at least six different threads. Of those 19 posts onlny 5 were in the game you are modding. You also posted every single day.
I checked that before I voted you.
Its why I voted you: because from my pov you have been "ignoring" this thread.

Thank you for serving our country. ;) My vote stays.
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Post Post #552 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 5:12 am

Post by kikuchiyo »

Sorry. Yes. I checked to see that she was posting and not gone from the site. That's why I voted her. She seemed to be ignoring the thread. It wasn't a lynchable issue until she LIED about her whereabouts. I didn't actually count and divide her posts until she made her claim of
only
posting in her modded game.

I voted her for "ignoring" the thread. She said she wasn't. That was a lie. Therefore the "pressure" vote turned into a "serious" vote.

Had she come back with a believable excuse I would have unvoted her. Had she said, "Sorry for ignoring the thread, I just wanted to see some reactions to my wagon, here is my analysis." Then That would have made sense to me. She claimed to not have time for mafia and yet she was consistently posting in several threads.
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Post Post #553 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 12:04 pm

Post by evilsnail »

Wow, this is the quickest I've ever been wagonned on the basis of so little. Some of these votes, wolframnhart's and Narninian's in particular, feel very lazy, as if they're a way of avoiding actual scumhunting.
Papa Zito wrote:
evilsnail wrote:
Papa Zito wrote:Are you suggesting we ignore your predecessor completely?
Where have I suggested this?
When you say you "can't answer for your predecessor's actions" that means you want us to wipe the slate clean. No bueno.
How does it mean that? I can't answer for my predecessor's actions because I'm not him. My guess is as good as yours, modulo some role-specific behavior. In no way does that mean or imply that you're not allowed to use his behavior against me.
wolframnhart wrote:right now I think that if evilsnail flips scum i have a nagging gut suspicion that HackerHuck and Narnian are his partners, only because they really haven't said much about one another, but attack others (HH the exception I don't see him doing much).

I am willing to test this theory out.
vote evilsnail
This is a terrible vote. I don't see how you can seriously vote someone on the basis of some flimsy scum-group theory you just came up with. Do you even have any evidence backing this claim up?

FOS: wolframnhart

HackerHuck wrote:
evilsnail wrote:Because opportunistic, lurkish play is not a reliable indicator of scum.
Really?
Yes, as I've said a number of times now, this is my experience. I don't see what's so radical about this. I'm sure I could even find instances of me saying this in other games.
Narninian wrote:honestly I just put that vote on wolf because he hadn't posted since monday. I'd do the same for whoever else was lurking but it seems we are 1 vote away from lynching Evilsnail - as his first action of the game was to vote for me, with a weak case I'd like to see what he has to say. Do you have a claim Evilsnail?
Do you have any reason to vote for me other than that you didn't like my case? This and your subsequent vote of me feels a lot like you're just going along with the wagon because it's easy. The lurker-hunt vote was also oddly misplaced. I'm definitely happy with my vote.

Btw, I'm getting tired of people calling it a "weak case" without any criticism of the content. I don't think anyone has actually explained what they think is wrong with my case. I still think the observations I made are sound.

I will claim when the time comes. I think there is more discussion to be had before that. I'm definitely not claiming until I get a detailed critique of my Narninian case, for one thing, and I would also like answers to the questions I asked here.
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Post Post #554 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 12:22 pm

Post by evilsnail »

Okay, kiku, I had a look at the Starbuck votes. To be honest, not many of them are backed up that well.

But here's my list, with my notes:
dybeck - misrepresentation/overreaction
bv310 - follows Dybeck
RBT - twisting words to avoid lynch
kikuchiyo - avoiding the thread
Narninian - being a vanilla townie?
wolframnhart - wording? I didn't really understand it, tbh
manho - Starbuck is prob town, but let's lynch her anyway?
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Post Post #555 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:58 pm

Post by Kdub »

Vote Count

Riceballtail (0)
-
MadCrawdad (0)
-
kikuchiyo (2)
- manho, MadCrawdad
HackerHuck (0)
-
Papa Zito (0)
-
wolframnhart (0)
-
Narninian (1)
- evilsnail
manho (0)
-
evilsnail (4)
- Papa Zito, wolframnhart, HackerHuck, Narninian
No Lynch (0)
-
Not Voting (2)
- Riceballtail, kikuchiyo

9 votes available, 5 votes needed to lynch.

Deadline is February 19, ~ 8:00 pm MST.
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Post Post #556 (ISO) » Sat Feb 06, 2010 4:04 pm

Post by Riceballtail »

@manho: I disagree on PZ being scum, but I'm sure that the Kiku/Snail argument has at least one scum involved. I could also see it as a possible bus.
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Post Post #557 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 4:25 am

Post by kikuchiyo »

556 is a bit easy. Saying "one or both could be scum" could be a good way to set up a mislynch in the event we are both town. It does, however, contain a stance on PZ. That is good and keeps the post from being a complete fence sit.

I like 553. Snail makes a couple of good points regarding both Narn and wolf. Their votes are particularly weak.

554: The request was to put the voters in order from best reasoned to least well reasoned. If you don't mind adjusting the list to reflect the order I would appreciate it. I've been caught with rl issues this weekend, but I intend to post my pbpa of the original Narn case asap. Evilsnail is correct in that his wagon has progressed with very little in the way of a tangible "case" as of yet.
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Post Post #558 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 6:56 am

Post by Papa Zito »

(Superbowl, etc. Stuff tomorrow)
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Post Post #559 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 8:17 am

Post by kikuchiyo »

evilsnail wrote:My major suspect at the moment is Narninian. The way he handled the Starbuck lynch reeked of scumminess.

First, he doesn't want to lynch Starbuck:
Narninian wrote:I don't see the claim of rumblebuffin to be a lynch worthy claim at this point. Vanilla townie is a bit of an 'easy' claim, and the name certainly is doubtful to have a counterclaim - but book just doesnt have a lot of better known' characters. There is Aslan, the 4 kids, tumnus, Father Christmas, Mr and Mrs Beaver, Professor Kirke. Personally, I wouldn't see any of those characters as 'vanilla' and if they were limited to those - a mass claim would make the game trivial. For vanilla characters tertiary characters seem most likely.
Interestin gpoint her. Trouble is, that the rest of this post which was snipped actually contained some scumhunting. In fact, Narn actually points to a link between bv310 and dybeck. Granted they are masons, but masons make up an informed minority which is similar to a scum team. Picking out the connection is actually good scumhunting. He also points out bv310's "hypocrisy" in finding Star suspicious for behavior he exhibited himself. If you just read the quote and comment by Snail, then it seems as though Snail's comment is accurate, but Narn didn't just "not want to lynch Starbuck". He had another suspect and concrete reasoning behind it.

Evilsnail wrote:Then, after manho claims, he
does
want to lynch Starbuck. The wording here also is terribly non-committal. "It seems a vanilla townie might be our best choice."
Narninian wrote:Well, That is quite the claim. I definitely expected to see her in the game, and her allegiance is solid. At this point I don't see pushing another bandwagon to be useful for town, if there is no counterclaim, it seems vanilla townie might be our best choice.
I find this to be a mischaracterization. Narn is "committing" to the vanilla townie lynch. Makes much more sense than pushing for further information from manho. Also, Narn clearly stated that he preferred the bv310 lynch and even committed his vote there. The bv lynch was not happening. His iso 10 is pto town. Not pushing for more info in the absence of a counterclaim helps town more than scum.
Snail wrote:BUT: despite this, he doesn't vote Starbuck yet. That is definitely a scum move, IMO. He ensures that he's pushing the lynch without committing to it and he's testing the waters a little bit to see if he can get away with a Starbuck vote.
Starbuck actually didn't need any votes. Her lynch was pretty solid for most of the second half of the day. There was less than 24 hours between his unvote of bv and his vote of Starbuck. When he voted Star he also said, nobody hammer in case we get a counterclaim. Granted, L-1 votes are always going to be suspicious, but I don't see this(upon reread) as "testing the waters". Narn was on bv. Its not like he was fencesitting.
evilsnail wrote:
Narninian wrote:Waiting for a counterclaim for Susan of course, not rumblebuffin. I actually agree with you on bv310 and that is why I had a vote on him, but forcing a third claim today might help scum more than it would help town. Choosing between a Vanilla townie tertiary character, and an uncontested Susan claim (power role to boot) seems like we have little choice.
"Seems like we have little choice" = scummy as hell. That is so scum trying to escape accountability.
It was day 1. I have mentioned it before, but vanilla claims should never "stop" a lynch. I think the approach here was pro town. Narn repeatedly stated he wanted the bv310 lynch. It could be clever scum, but with bv flipping town, I don't see the motivation to choose one over the other. Hackerhuck was pushing for more Susan info which is way scummier imo. Its a reach at best.
Evilsnail wrote:Finally, J.R., who Narninian replaced, also set off my scumdar. J.R. was opportunistic as heck, placing a third vote on Starbuck for little reason.
I believe it was an RVS vote. Some players think bandwagons are a good way out of the RVS. This is a debatable subject, but I personally don't think RVS interactions are scummy until you can associate them to a flipped scum(which we can't).

Overall, The way the initial case was framed made it appear to have merit. But reading Narn in iso leads me to see much more protown behavior than is presented. There are far scummier interactions going on yesterday. Granted, I am thoroughly unimpressed with Narn today, but I think this case is no good, possibly fabricated.

Waiting on the list before I post more.
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Post Post #560 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 9:48 am

Post by evilsnail »

kikuchiyo wrote:554: The request was to put the voters in order from best reasoned to least well reasoned. If you don't mind adjusting the list to reflect the order I would appreciate it. I've been caught with rl issues this weekend, but I intend to post my pbpa of the original Narn case asap. Evilsnail is correct in that his wagon has progressed with very little in the way of a tangible "case" as of yet.
The list is ordered. My notes are just there as a reminder. I wasn't entirely sure where to put bv310, because he essentially says "I trust dybeck." On the basis of this, I put him on the same level as dybeck, on the assumption that he was convinced by the same evidence, but you could also interpret it in a different way (he's voting Starbuck only because he trusts dybeck's judgement), which would probably put him just below you on the list.
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Post Post #561 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 9:49 am

Post by evilsnail »

kikuchiyo wrote:Interestin gpoint her. Trouble is, that the rest of this post which was snipped actually contained some scumhunting. In fact, Narn actually points to a link between bv310 and dybeck. Granted they are masons, but masons make up an informed minority which is similar to a scum team. Picking out the connection is actually good scumhunting. He also points out bv310's "hypocrisy" in finding Star suspicious for behavior he exhibited himself. If you just read the quote and comment by Snail, then it seems as though Snail's comment is accurate, but Narn didn't just "not want to lynch Starbuck". He had another suspect and concrete reasoning behind it.
I didn't mean to imply with that quote that he didn't have another suspect. I pulled out the ISO to establish his baseline opinion on Starbuck at that point.
kikuchiyo wrote:I find this to be a mischaracterization. Narn is "committing" to the vanilla townie lynch. Makes much more sense than pushing for further information from manho. Also, Narn clearly stated that he preferred the bv310 lynch and even committed his vote there. The bv lynch was not happening. His iso 10 is pto town. Not pushing for more info in the absence of a counterclaim helps town more than scum.
I don't have a problem with the switch in itself. Starbuck made sense as a lynch. What I found scummy was the non-committal way in which the switch was done. The way it is worded suggests a Starbuck lynch is inevitable and I felt like it was a way of escaping responsibility.
kikuchiyo wrote:Starbuck actually didn't need any votes. Her lynch was pretty solid for most of the second half of the day. There was less than 24 hours between his unvote of bv and his vote of Starbuck. When he voted Star he also said, nobody hammer in case we get a counterclaim. Granted, L-1 votes are always going to be suspicious, but I don't see this(upon reread) as "testing the waters". Narn was on bv. Its not like he was fencesitting.
He's testing the waters in the sense that that post was like a soft switch onto the Starbuck wagon. It provides justification for a later Starbuck vote without being seen as pushing for the lynch explicitly.
kikuchiyo wrote:It was day 1. I have mentioned it before, but vanilla claims should never "stop" a lynch. I think the approach here was pro town. Narn repeatedly stated he wanted the bv310 lynch. It could be clever scum, but with bv flipping town, I don't see the motivation to choose one over the other. Hackerhuck was pushing for more Susan info which is way scummier imo. Its a reach at best.
I never said the vanilla claim should stop the lynch. I don't have a problem with Narninian switching to the Starbuck wagon at that point. It's the way in which he does it, the wording and the timing of his vote. There is an inevitability in it, a lack of responsibility. It felt like he knew Starbuck was going to turn up town and didn't want to be attacked for it later.

Taken together, Narninian was quite wishy-washy about Starbuck, saying her claim wasn't lynch-worthy at first and then pretending as if the lynch was inevitable. I find both attitudes strange (Rumblebuffin isn't a particularly strong claim and no lynch is inevitable).
kikuchiyo wrote:I believe it was an RVS vote. Some players think bandwagons are a good way out of the RVS. This is a debatable subject, but I personally don't think RVS interactions are scummy until you can associate them to a flipped scum(which we can't).
Fair enough. This was largely a gut feeling about J.R.
kikuchiyo wrote:Overall, The way the initial case was framed made it appear to have merit. But reading Narn in iso leads me to see much more protown behavior than is presented. There are far scummier interactions going on yesterday. Granted, I am thoroughly unimpressed with Narn today, but I think this case is no good, possibly fabricated.
I think this is a bit unfair, even if you do disagree with my conclusions. But perhaps I should have been clearer about the fact that it was the way in which he made the switch that I found scummy and not the switch in principle.
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Post Post #562 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 10:21 am

Post by kikuchiyo »

We may need to agree to disagree on some of this. I appreciate your responses.

I have two issues at this point. One more important than the other.

First the lesser:

In your list of "most" to "least" reasonable Starbuck votes you have Narn above Wolf. Yet you vote Narn and FoS Wolf. Any particular reason there?

Second, and of greater importance:

You have RBT's reasoning as the third(effectively second, minus bv310) most well reasoned Starbuck vote. I would like you to iso read RBT and reevaluate his play. Please include his play today in your analysis. Do you still stand by the implication that his vote on Star was "well-reasoned"? Do you still stand by the implication that his play is "null tell"?
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Post Post #563 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2010 1:09 pm

Post by Narninian »

unvote


I have to admit my play has been a bit lazy today. I ended up with a lurker vote and then an OMGUS vote because there was a wagon there. Day 2 should have more evidence out there than that.

Alot of RL stuff going on, but Ill certainly look more closely to see if I can find better conculusions.
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Post Post #564 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 12:46 am

Post by manho »

kikuchiyo wrote:556 is a bit easy. Saying "one or both could be scum" could be a good way to set up a mislynch in the event we are both town.
the town-vs-town vibe is very different from the town-vs-scum vibe, so "one or both could be scum" is a correct saying, at least imo. and you shouldn't be worried about the case both of you are town, as you think snail is the scum. it is weird for a townie to vote someone and push for his lynch, but worry that he is town at the same time.
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Post Post #565 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 4:23 am

Post by kikuchiyo »

manho wrote:the town-vs-town vibe is very different from the town-vs-scum vibe, so "one or both could be scum" is a correct saying, at least imo. and you shouldn't be worried about the case both of you are town, as you think snail is the scum. it is weird for a townie to vote someone and push for his lynch, but worry that he is town at the same time.
RBT shouldn't have knowledge of our alignments if he is town. By saying "one or both" he sets himself up to take either side of the argument today and push the lynch of the other tomorrow. Do you have 100% knowledge that evilsnail is scum? I don't, therefore I have to accept the possibility that he is town. In that case, RBT is stringing mislynches.

Also, please note the logic fail. If the "town vs. town" vibe is "very different" than the "town vs. scum vibe" then you cannot logically conclude that "one or both could be scum" is a correct saying. If you need further explanation, just ask. Your uselessness is noted.

I am currently engaged in discussion with evilsnail. It is prudent to consider both possibiilities in regards to his alignment and to allow him to offer his opinions and analysis. Starbuck was afforded the same grace and chose to squander it which contributed to the downward spiral that led to her lynch.

If you have a question for me, please ask. Interuupting an ongoing investigation with your opinion is a bit rude. As it stands now, regardless of his alignment, his contribution and responses are only going to help town.
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Post Post #566 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 5:48 am

Post by Kdub »

wolframnhart has been prodded.
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Post Post #567 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 8:07 am

Post by Papa Zito »

I read back through and I'm not seeing much to change my mind here.

Crawdad, is RBT still your #2?
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Post Post #568 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 11:17 am

Post by evilsnail »

kikuchiyo wrote:I have two issues at this point. One more important than the other.

First the lesser:

In your list of "most" to "least" reasonable Starbuck votes you have Narn above Wolf. Yet you vote Narn and FoS Wolf. Any particular reason there?
I didn't really understand Wolf's initial Starbuck vote. It was something about Starbuck saying Sibelius was lurking that I didn't quite get. But anyway, I'm voting Narn for the way in which he voted, not the purported reasons.
kikuchiyo wrote:Second, and of greater importance:

You have RBT's reasoning as the third(effectively second, minus bv310) most well reasoned Starbuck vote. I would like you to iso read RBT and reevaluate his play. Please include his play today in your analysis. Do you still stand by the implication that his vote on Star was "well-reasoned"? Do you still stand by the implication that his play is "null tell"?
Hmm, well I could go with putting him below you as well, because he's mostly going by other people's cases. That said, there's nothing in principle wrong with that. I mostly put your vote below his because I don't think avoiding the thread is at all a scum tell. I've done it myself as townie, mostly in situations in which I feel like my defense is falling on deaf ears or when discussions with the players attacking me aren't particularly constructive (because of stubbornness, abrasiveness or whatever). It's actually sometimes easier to answer attacks as scum, because at least you don't have the frustration of being falsely accused.

Anyway, RBT's play: he was one of the first to go after manho, then hopped onto the Starbuck wagon citing the cases developed on her, went back to manho after Starbuck claimed and the wagon lost a little bit of momentum and then hammered Starbuck. Except for the lurking in between, which makes this play a little opportunistic, this is essentially similar to what other players did Day 1. I can see what is grating about this play, because contribution is quite scarce and it's difficult to read him, but I don't think it's a scum tell.

Looking back, his first vote today was a bit off. It's a bit weird that he said he didn't expect Starbuck to turn up scum and his vote for you wasn't that inspiring (the fact that Starbuck was town doesn't mean she was right about who is scum). But yeah, I stand by my original assessment of his lurkish play.
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Post Post #569 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 11:58 am

Post by HackerHuck »

I'd like to understand what you're trying to get at with all of the debate over where people belong on his ranking. It seems a bit of a distraction and not really leading down a path that would help determine evil's alignment.
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Post Post #570 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 12:25 pm

Post by wolframnhart »

unvote, vote Narnian


I was trying to see who would put Evil at L-1 thinking that one of Evil's partners wouldn't hammer as much as just get on teh wagon at L-1. When Narnian voted after me I thought I had a partner, now I am just thinking I have a scum and Evil himself has dropped to a neutral zone for me. I believe Narnian's latest post to be what has changed my mind:
Narnian wrote:I have to admit my play has been a bit lazy today. I ended up with a lurker vote and then an OMGUS vote because there was a wagon there. Day 2 should have more evidence out there than that.

Alot of RL stuff going on, but Ill certainly look more closely to see if I can find better conculusions.
He excuses himself for being lazy, then admits his vote against me was purely lurker, and then his Evil vote was just OMGUS
because there was a wagon there
. He put a person at L-1, and Evil could have very well claimed a PR because Narnian placed what he called an OMGUS vote on him, what townie would place a OMGUS vote on someone bringing them to L-1, and especially just because there is a wagon there? None that I know of.
They tell you never hit a man with a closed fist, but it is on occasion hilarious. - Malcolm Reynolds

Wolf, I fucking hate your face, but still <3 you as a whole. - Starbuck
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Post Post #571 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 12:40 pm

Post by kikuchiyo »

HackerHuck wrote:I'd like to understand what you're trying to get at with all of the debate over where people belong on his ranking. It seems a bit of a distraction and not really leading down a path that would help determine evil's alignment.
Its actually helped me quite a bit. If you have any other ideas, feel free to share. Criticising without offering an alternative is lazy.

I'll pbpa 568 later.
wolf wrote:When Narnian voted after me I thought I had a partner, now I am just thinking I have a scum and Evil himself has dropped to a neutral zone for me.
What moved Evilsnail to neutral?
"Yes, Kiku fucked me thoroughly and left me on the side of the road to be lynched." - Snow White
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Post Post #572 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 1:39 pm

Post by HackerHuck »

kikuchiyo wrote:
HackerHuck wrote:I'd like to understand what you're trying to get at with all of the debate over where people belong on his ranking. It seems a bit of a distraction and not really leading down a path that would help determine evil's alignment.
Its actually helped me quite a bit. If you have any other ideas, feel free to share. Criticising without offering an alternative is lazy.
Maybe I could offer an alternative if you actually answered my question. You spent an awful lot of effort on that questioning to not come up with anything of value. ...or is there some reason why you've chosen not to share?
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Post Post #573 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 1:54 pm

Post by wolframnhart »

@kiku

Narnians reason for voting, and the fact that when his vote was questioned how he quickly unvoted and blames lazyness. The combination of the two makes me think Evil might really be townie, but i am not 100% on that so neutral is where I am placing him.
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Post Post #574 (ISO) » Mon Feb 08, 2010 3:56 pm

Post by Riceballtail »

VOTE:EvilSnail


I like the thought of keeping this pressure up. It's yielding good results.
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