Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

[DrippingGoofball]

I just read the rules and you can't measure my disappointment at finding that I don't have a gun.

[ortolan]

Llama did Xyl ask you to replace him specifically?

just isoed Nacho, don't think you should shoot him/DGB

[ortolan]

Maemuki is actually a very difficult meta read, I just spent a while reading some games of hers I could find and had difficulty finding any distinct behavioural tells.

She was about neutral, but when I read Slicey at the beginning of the game his tunneling on Sarag sticks out. He seems convinced she is scum and basically never lets up, always keeping her in his "suspected players" and not revising his opinions on her. This makes me think he nominated her to be the specific scumbuddy he constantly attacks from the beginning of the game, alongside rite and Bogre (town). I also get the overall impression from Sarag ISO 32 that Mae might be a buddy.

It is looking most likely that it's Mae/Howard atm.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama did Xyl ask you to replace him specifically

I did some deal were I would replace for Elmo is he reviewed my large theme where if you die you pass your votes onto a new person of choice which is now taking signups [/shameless plug] I would replace into this game if ever needed. Apparently it was needed.

[HackerHuck]

I just read the rules and you can't measure my disappointment at finding that I don't have a gun.

You almost got your wish, but Xyl disappeared on us.

Ortolan - why do you think that Nacho/DGB is town?

Llama - I'm patient enough to wait for you to flesh out some of your thoughts.

[Maemuki]

I can't defend myself from things that Slicey made, orto.

Oh hai DGB

Yos2, k. Why?

[DrippingGoofball]

Alright, here to read. I understand that one of the players below is scum. I'll read each in iso.

Yosarian2
HowardRoark (Replaced Vaya on Day 1)
Maemuki (Replaced Slicey on Day 2)
ortolan
LlamaFluff (Replaced Xylthixlm on Day 6)

[Yosarian2]

I can't defend myself from things that Slicey made, orto.

Oh hai DGB

Yos2, k. Why?

Biggest one is process of elimination at this point, like I've been saying.

I also think there are connections between you and Howard, such as the way that both of you in unison decided to attack me together once Ort said he suspected me yesterday. Besides that, I've been at least somewhat suspicious of you for most of the game; I didn't like the way you attacked Xyl for "leading the town", and then when I defended him, you attacked me for "answering a question that was not directed at me". I responded with this post:

None of that is a scumtell.

Why...did you just answer a question that was not directed to you?

Because Xyl was being attacked for an obviously bad reason by both you and Nacho, and I'm trying to figure out if that means you and Nacho didn't understand mafia theory, or if it has more to do with one or both of your alignments.

Now explain this to me. Why is "leading the town" a scumtell? And why, when I explain to you that it's not, was your only reaction to criticize me for "answering a question directed at someone else" rather then respond to what I actually said?

And you never answered my questions, even though I repeatedly asked you to do so.

You were also one of the people in favor of shooting HH on the day he was shot and flipped town; granted a lot of people were, but I'm not a fan of your posts on the subject in specific going into the lynch, which were stuff like:

Hi Hacker! Defending scum, aren't we?

Can we shoot this guy now?

17 - Suspects Sarag, HH, and HR. Gives NO reasons for any of them.

*whistles* More reasons to shoot HH!

So, yeah, I think the likely scumgroup here is you and Howard, Mae. I'd like to see Howard get shot today, because as I said I'm even more certain of him being scum, but you've generally acted in a scummier way then most of the people in that game.

[Yosarian2]

Alright, here to read. I understand that one of the players below is scum. I'll read each in iso.

Yosarian2
HowardRoark (Replaced Vaya on Day 1)
Maemuki (Replaced Slicey on Day 2)
ortolan
LlamaFluff (Replaced Xylthixlm on Day 6)

Actally, 2 scum; it said in the rules that we started with 4.

[DrippingGoofball]

Actally, 2 scum; it said in the rules that we started with 4.

I'd say it's like shooting fish in a barrel then, except that on the page I'm on, I would have totally blasted Vala Mal Doran and Bogre into the stratosphere. I hope my scumdar improves.

[Yosarian2]

Well, Vala was the first gunbarer, which means she was modconfirmed town from the very first post.

On the other hand, we all thought Bogre was scum. I know i did.

[DrippingGoofball]

Oh, that explains Vala Mal Doran's scummy questions... never mind.

[DrippingGoofball]

• Yosarian2 is really sneaky. I think I've got a trick for reading him, but I never manage to actually get him lynched.
  
• Vaya is... well, let's just say Vaya is better at convincingly faking scum as town.
  
• Vala Mal Doran is confirmed town, and therefore will be extremely convincing if she's actually scum
  
• DragonsofSummer I can't say much about; need to play with him more, or maybe he just isn't very memorable.
  
• Slicey is cool. Probably average difficulty at reading.
  
• ortolan is about average.
  
• rite I know nothing about.
  
• Xylthixlm is totally obvious as scum if you know what to look for, and really sneaky if you don't.
  
• DraketheFake... don't know.
  
• Sarag... don't know.
  
• Zakeri is average, a little bit hard to read iirc.
  
• Bogre... see DragonsofSummer.

Overall Yos2 is most convincing as scum by far. Some people would put me as second. There's nobody in this group who I know as really really easy to read, though.

The above strikes me as extremely scummy; Xyl is basically saying that no one is easy to read, or is an unknowable quantity. I can see him doing that as scum. He has to cover his keister ahead of time for al lthe townies he's going to want to lynch/shoot.

After covering his own keister, Xyl starts pushing for Bogre's lynch in an atrocious way: "Bogre: crazy or scum? Tonight at 11" and many, many more like it.

Ortolan's reactions to Xyl's scumminess is total town.

I've played with Xyl frequently and he's much more obtuse than usual. Maybe that's his scum meta. I disagree with ortolan here. The thing about Xyl's style is that it's probably really easy, as scum, to imitate his own style as town. His keister-covering pretending all the players are hard to read, while jumping on Bogre with all the certainty of a pit bull having found ham, now that a mistake that he made; AS SCUM.

I'm on page 10; I jumped to see why Xyl wanted to be replaced, and it turns out, Xyl just flaked off. Llamafluff's entrance is less than spectacular. Looks like someone that picked up a scum PM and is intimidated.

Xyl's player slot is almost certainly scum. But I may completely change my mind after I read the rest of the game - later.

[CryMeARiver]

Super Bowl: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 69#2098469

[LlamaFluff]

Hah... me passive.

Breakdown by slot of why nacho-slot should be lynched

DTF

He was lurky at first, but his catchup posts are very nice at showing hes scum

- Sarag's first post is bad, much worse than Bogre's first. "Haha yeah, I was gonna act like scum" is so much posturing, and reeks additionally of deference to a noted strong player. The additional focus on votes versus FoSes seems like trying to ingratiate.

Was about all he came up with on any dead scum that did not require Bogre to be scum first. He went on to link Sarag to Bogre, and then concluded his catchup post by no longer being sure of Bogre being scum. This leads us to a catchup post of "I dont know".

@Sarag: That's a pretty jumpy response. Caught with your hand in the cookie jar? You're "not going to waste everyone's time" by defending yourself? Is that because you figure people will ignore what you've just said in favor of continuing to harp on Bogre? Because you saw what happened when Bogre tried to defend himself? Your decision here is a very strange one by a player who came under mild suspicion at best.

He does put "pressure" on sarag later, with a mess of questions. This was all that came of the attack though. While the response from Sarag actually isnt bad (Sarag-scum actually was a surprise to me) it was never mentioned again by DTF. In fact Bogre was really never mentioned by DTF again as well, which was odd given that Sarag calling Bogre town in a response is all it made for DTF to stop.

The entire extent of suspicions that even came from that slot seemed to be "mild suspicion of rite (town)".

Have to finish up a paper thats due tomorrow now. If all goes well I will be back for more later.

Im also starting to lean to Slicey (now Mae) as second scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'll be out all day, I will read the next 20 pages tonight.

[ortolan]

DGB I had been thinking Xyl was town for a while now because I can see how his play here could be deemed similar to that in lynch all lurkers. I do know he won a scummy for his mafia performance in mind screw 3 but well...meh. I don't really recall having any good reason to doubt his towniness at any point in this game.

Also it's interesting to note that Vi had to finish off modding Xyl's Anime Bastard Chaos so presumably Xyl has had issues accessing the site or somesuch (which is strange because he still idles on irc in #mafia)

I'm still willing to hang on to my town read. I'm now feeling the love for the last two scum being Howard-Nacho/DGB

[ortolan]

ISOing Howard leads to some good links to Nacho:

[quote="Howard" (ISO 40)"]I think that seeing the result of a shot at Yosarian2 would solidify reads on HackerHuck (who he has been defending), Xylthixlm (where there has been a lot of support for each other), and Nachomamma8 (where there was more suspicion during the attacks on Xylthixlm and a town read after they stopped).[/quote]

@Yosarian2: A response to my post 765 please.

@Nachomamma8: That slip was all I needed for my solid scum read on Sarag.

Anyway I agree that Howard is scum now and should be shot. We can work out mae v.s. nacho afterwards.

[DrippingGoofball]

I was Xyl's scumbuddy in that game, if memory serves (and it often fails me).

[LlamaFluff]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Still happy about this list. Sarag has the potential to remove himself if he starts actually playing. The other three had better hope that someone else does something really really scummy, because otherwise they'll be my top suspects for a while...

I have no scum tells on Sarag... I am pretty sure none were previously stated either.

After completely ignoring Sarag this comes as a shock

Bogre’s my second, but I think he's a bad target if we're wrong. He might do a decent job at finding scum as the shooter, but he'd need to take his sights off of me and Xyl before I'd feel really comfortable risking that. It's not so much that I don't think he's really scummy, it's that being wrong about Bogre would be like killing two townies.

Stop right there. Thinking this way is opening yourself up to manipulation by the scum. Don't.

That is why we should be careful about who we shoot though. If we shoot someone who is obviously a poor scum hunter, they are then given the opportunity to accedentally shoot town.

rewq starts arguing that we should exclude people who are bad at scumhunting so they wont kill town. This isnt even a viable tactic in normal games, let alone one with special mechanichs. He is defending Bogre who he had called scum multiple times with this as well, which doesnt add up.

It's still bad play, dipping into a test sample of one pool for something as fickle as meta.

Not at all. I've seen people try to draw meta from 10 different games and because they're n00b @ mafia the meta they have derived is crap and useless anyway. Quality, not quantity. If you work out behaviour that people genuinely have difficulty changing, then it's going to be effective regardless of where it's drawn from (bear in mind I don't even remember who I apparently meta'ed at this point). Noobs are still gonna read 10 different games and say "omg, Zakeri, in 9/10 of your town games your average post length is 3 lines long, in your scum game your average post length was 5 lines long. You have one 6-line post in this game

Vote: Zakeri

"

Slicey: I don't think Xyl is scum. Merely wrong.

So you are doing this based off of post length? Also I noticed that you said that Zakeri was on your scum list, even before you posted anything against him. Also you have brought up posts against how he posts.... looking scummier each page. At this point, even scummier than Bogre.

At this point ort is going full force at zak (scum). The change in reads on ort is stunning though from reqw. Earlier, he had ort as town like here

I am seeing Ort playing as a very protective town member, instead of a poor scummy member. He seems to be protecting to many people though. I think that there is a good chance that Bogre is scum and that Ort is protecting him wrongly. Also, I agree that he seems to be a good enough player that if he were scum, he would not defend all of his scum buddies.

The pressure of zak from ort is a big reason that he seemes to want ort dead. It looks like a chainsaw-ish defense, especially considering how much the read on ort was required to change for him to be suddenly considered scum.

Later we get a few more quips about dead scum

I am telling you, just kill Hacker, DoS, Sarag and AlmasterGM

One misfire won't stop us getting a scummy, our scummy can still be saved

Why AlmasterGM?

Answered by ort, dropped by rewq

I agree with you that Sarag is scum, btw.

Way to change the topic

Trying to get the topic of converstation off killing sarag.

~~~

I will get to nacho later, but the ammount of defending and deflecting that had been done here by rewq is impressive. Reward him with a bullet

[ortolan]

My top three have only slightly changed - Ort, Bogre, and Drake. Drake edged out over Rite mostly because rite had a replacement.

yer this looks bad for Drake/his successors for me seeing as I know I'm town.

So yer. It's Howard 'n' DGB

[HackerHuck]

Shoot: DGB/Nacho

[DrippingGoofball]

Gimme the gun

GIMME GIMME GIMME

I will annihilate the scum before they have time to scurry into the darkness

[ortolan]

it's LYOL now btw

[DrippingGoofball]

Then we lost