Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

StrangerCoug

- 1 - The1fifi - (L-5)

Players not voting: Devotress, Ellibereth, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, Jack, StrangerCoug, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

This is good, (unless Faraday and Wolf are scum together and we're screwed) that Wolf is a confirmable role.

Now it's either Fifi, Jack, or SC. SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack. In the latter case, Jack should've waited for me to claim first to see if I was bomb or not, so that he could claim bomb.

That makes it 50% right now on Fifi and Jack. Like the numbers better now, Hoopla? Either 50% that Jack is vig, or he's town and vigs Fifi, and then we go to lylo again (what an intense game!)

That doesn't factor yourself in as the vig, or scum with StrangerCoug. Don't seriously expect to push such optimistic numbers when you omit a big possibility.

[Hoopla]

Wolf, why did you take that role so high up the draft list? It seems like a mostly worthless role.

To be honest I was thinking about taking that role. If survived long enough it can create a web of masons as well as a confirmed neigbhorizer. Also seems, from Wolf's perspective I'm guessing, like an odd enough role that he could be sure he wouldn't turn up vanilla.

Why are you answering for wolf, i'm trying to pressure him!!!!11

[Ellibereth]

Elli = Govern
Wolf = Neighbor
Hoopla = Vanilla (Backup)
Jack = Venge
Fate = Bomb!!
The1fifi = Vanilla (vig)
StrangerCoug = Vanilla (bomb)
Devotress
Faraday
TonyMontana

Is this right so far?

[wolframnhart]

But i did answer, right before his post i believe

[Fate]

You're right it doesn't. Take into consideration that it is true for a moment, is it not the best play?

Ok back to realistic land: I could be the scum vig with SC setting up my fakeclaim. While this is plausible, plausible is the land of "scum push through their fakeclaims."

Remember Socrates claiming his actions yesterday as bomb and made them all seem plausible? But we knew he was lying based on the rest of the game. This is why I (secretly, still wanted scum to think I was not-bomb) believed SC when he sort of believed Socrates.

If I were scum with both Socrates and SC, wouldn't the better play have been to claim bomb right away and bus Socrates? Especially since I knew it was my eventual fakeclaim? But I was anti-massclaim yesterday, because I wanted one more day to try and draw the kill.

Based on the rest of the game, do you think my play lines up with Vig?

Wolf claimed, Hoopla. Who else do you think is vig, what is going to prove it? Do you want to just add me to the pool and take a 33% chance?

Only thing left I can think of is Faraday claiming Vanilla-> Vengeful townie or something. Wait, isn't that what

you

claimed?

[Fate]

Nevermind, you went for Universal.

Why are you answering for wolf, i'm trying to pressure him!!!!11

I c what u did thar. This case is different though, because wolf is confirmed neighborizer in my eyes. Unless he's Vig and someone else lower down is neighborizer, and fifi is scum, and *mind is blown*

Let's just say he's neighborizer for now.

[Fate]

Elli = Govern
Wolf = Neighbor
Hoopla = Vanilla (Backup)
Jack = Venge
Fate = Bomb!!
The1fifi = Vanilla (vig)
StrangerCoug = Vanilla (bomb)
Devotress
Faraday
TonyMontana

Is this right so far?

Yes. These also should be included:

DocPotter-Vanilla (Vengeful)
And any others that said what they went for...

Then again, it could be either fifi or Jack... with them switching claims around to mess with us. Which still makes me feel better about lynching Jack.

Another thing that makes me think better about lynching Jack: They could've been afraid of DP fakeclaiming vanilla, (being actualy vengeful townie), which would have outed Jack today. So they killed him today to line up Jack's fakeclaim.

[Hoopla]

Fate, I think you being vig is not as slim as I once thought (pre-Soc scumflip). It mostly doesn't make sense why scum wouldn't take cop/vig as their number 1 and 2. This is either means you're town - which makes StrangerCoug probably town too. Which I don't buy.

I think the likeliest scenario right now is that you're the scum bomb, and StrangerCoug is the scumvig, giving Stranger a safe fakeclaim that would look good when it needed to look good in lylo.

There is a small possibility that Fifi is lying (but still not the vig himself) and scum let the vig drop even lower down the list, assuming nobody would go for it. But I don't think it is worth considering.

I'm not considering wolf to be the vig either, because it means he has to be scum with someone else down the list who took neighbourizer. And I just don't see scum taking that role.

That leaves Fifi and Jack. You're right that Jack's role makes him hard to lynch, in the sense that almost every possibility leads to a town loss. Could scum have known this before Socrates fakeclaim and set up for this? No. Because the way it has unfolded, Jack's security stems from the web of roles below and above him - something scum could not have predicted. He lucked out (either as town or scum) in this position, which means it was not a scum-planned 'can't take a chance lynching me' gambit.

Like wolf, the only way Jack could be the vig, is if he has a scumpartner lower down the list that actually has the vengeful role themself (but is above Doc). It's feasible, but there are other higher probabilty scenarios, and in these scenarios they don't carry the auto-lose risks that lynching Jack has.

Fifi to me seems like the obvious choice for vig - his claim was a great way to basically shove suspicion up the ladder. I'm still working out the possibilities of teams Fifi could be on, but in my opinion, the vig is between one of the two vanilla claims (Fifi and StrangerCoug).

[Ellibereth]

STUPID QUESTION TIME:
If we miss the vig today, it's a loss right?
Almost done scanning through.

[The1fifi]

Off the top of my head I think the 1fifi is lying and is the vig.
Jack/Fate still both look extremely town to me...

What reasons do you have to believe i am the vig? I am not. i am vanilla, who went for vig -.-

[Hoopla]

STUPID QUESTION TIME:
If we miss the vig today, it's a loss right?
Almost done scanning through.

No, if we hit regular scum, we should get another day. The only clause in this is if we hit scum vengeful, then it's a loss. Any town lynch today is a loss.

[Fate]

Shit, Devotress! DEVOTRESS IS ABOVE DP.

Devo could easily be vengeful scum.

This situation is confusing the hell out of me. I'll be back tonight when I have more time and write it down on paper, to try and make sense of the possible teams and roles.

But right now I'll say this: It isn't SC unless he's scum with me.

[The1fifi]

Fifi to me seems like the obvious choice for vig - his claim was a great way to basically shove suspicion up the ladder. I'm still working out the possibilities of teams Fifi could be on, but in my opinion, the vig is between one of the two vanilla claims (Fifi and StrangerCoug).

And you are obviously SC scum partner! I already said i am vanilla! Stop tryin to lead to a mislynch. I'd vote you, if i weren't so focused on finding the vig. It is Fate. He is trying so hard to put the suspicion on SC/Jack/Me. How come 2nd pick hasn't been killed?? Cause he is scum. Wether he was bomb or not, scum would risking sending the kill with a vanilla just to take down such a high risk draft position.

[StrangerCoug]

Initial vote for soc (after the rvs vote which was unvoted):

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

Context:
Soc said hoopla was scummy because her plan for pushing the top of the draft order was pro-scum (the town power roles would get lynched). He theorized that if hoop was scum, the mafia had done badly in the draft.

RedCoyote said this was contradictory because it's like he is using hoopla's logic (about scum being in a certain part of the draft). He isn't though, she's going by number analysis and he's saying her scummy pushing of it indicates that the mafia did badly if she herself is scum.

Coug agrees, but

misses the point

. He focuses on the "hoopla and/or fate flips scum" part. The other reason for his vote is that he's remembering getting lynched as scum in the last game--or something, the last part of the post doesn't make much sense to me. It sounds more like he's thinking about not making the slip he made last game.

Announcing a wish not to repeat the same mistake last time is a null tell. Supposed you were lynched as scum for heavy tunneling on a player. Would you want to tunnel heavily again? I don't think so. Would you view people who tunneled heavily on a player as scummy afterward? I can't think of a logical reason why not. Your attack here basically calls me scummy for acting on past experiences.

Vote: Socrates. I don't care if I just recast the vote I pulled off; I'd rather do that than make the mistake I made in PYP I and claim not to see a case on someone I'm voting.

Scumslip, he was scum in PYP I, once again is thinking about not making the same mistake.

Again, null.

It looks like my vote on Socrates is doing a whole lot of nothing, and I understand bouncy.bouncy's case (that I posted at #429) better than The1fifi. Socrates will have to wait until later.

Vote: Socrates

Do I need to repeat it?

...I still can't get Socrates support, eh?

Well, I'll have to go with number two, which has support already.

Well, that'll teach him to think before sending stuff in...

Vote: Socrates for reasons that we should know by now.

2 themes here:

1) Socrates is obv scum

Understandable.

2) Sigh, I can't get people to vote for him, I won't even try to repost my weak case and push other people though.

I was concerned less about my case being weak and more about my coming off as a broken record. While I wish everybody would have agreed at that point, I don't get what I want; however, I thought all the other players already knew why I thought so.

Heh. So I did.

Screw it anyway. I'm hurting myself by leaving myself open on Socrates, and the "backfired gambit" reads more scum than town.

Unvote if necessary
Vote: Socrates

Fakey and awkward.

Is it worse than sitting on the fence, which is what I was doing before this?

SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.

Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?

Fifi to me seems like the obvious choice for vig - his claim was a great way to basically shove suspicion up the ladder. I'm still working out the possibilities of teams Fifi could be on, but in my opinion, the vig is between one of the two vanilla claims (Fifi and StrangerCoug).

And you are obviously SC scum partner! I already said i am vanilla! Stop tryin to lead to a mislynch. I'd vote you, if i weren't so focused on finding the vig. It is Fate. He is trying so hard to put the suspicion on SC/Jack/Me. How come 2nd pick hasn't been killed?? Cause he is scum. Wether he was bomb or not, scum would risking sending the kill with a vanilla just to take down such a high risk draft position.

This does not come off to me as genuine. It is OMGUS and WIFOM mixed together, and I'm having a hard time seeing any sort of case on Fate. (Pop quiz for everyone else: Who do I think is vig?)

Vote: The1fifi

[The1fifi]

Now i think its you -.-

unvote

vote SC

[Jack]

I don't get where Fate is getting the "coug must be town". Is it solely based on "he took a hell of a risk claiming it"? He didn't take a big risk.

Fate is saying that me or fifi is the scumvig, and that he (fate) is town. If that's the case, then coug going for bomb makes sense as scum, it's not a huge risk. If he gets counterclaimed they know where the bomb is and one of the non-vig scum (coug could be non-vig) gets lynched. If fate thinks I'm lying about being vengeful, then coug could be the vengeful and the scum could win with his lynch.

Ok, that's as clear as I can make that paragraph. Essentially, there is no reason for Fate as town to assume that coug is innocent. All of the other assumptions he's making (devotress could be vengeful, etc) make sense with coug being scum. Ergo, he is probably coug's scumbuddy.

[StrangerCoug]

Now i think its you -.-

unvote

vote SC

*whistles pretending not to pay attention, but instead making a mental note that The1fifi is scum*

[Ellibereth]

Tony, Devotress, and Fara all need to claim before I'm going to start vot'in.
Fate, what impression did you get from Fara in the QT? What did you discuss mostly? Or just talk about whatever you want about it.

[Jack]

Announcing a wish not to repeat the same mistake last time is a null tell. Supposed you were lynched as scum for heavy tunneling on a player. Would you want to tunnel heavily again? I don't think so. Would you view people who tunneled heavily on a player as scummy afterward? I can't think of a logical reason why not. Your attack here basically calls me scummy for acting on past experiences.

Actually no. I said that you were:

1) Reading carelessly, as shown by you not understanding Red's post
2) Voting on a weak case, which you later made your centerpiece
3) And I said that my feeling was that you were thinking in the mindset of scum

So the main point was that it was a weak, careless buss. You ignore that part here, and dismissively talk about null tells which have no relation to gut feel.

2 themes here:

1) Socrates is obv scum

Understandable.

So you were in fact convinced he was scum? Why?

You skipped the part of my post where I was saying how weak your soc case was (and the part about you being undecided on whether your top suspect was gambiting).

2) Sigh, I can't get people to vote for him, I won't even try to repost my weak case and push other people though.

I was concerned less about my case being weak and more about my coming off as a broken record. While I wish everybody would have agreed at that point, I don't get what I want; however, I thought all the other players already knew why I thought so.

Ok. This is a dead end. You say you didn't want to sound like a broken record, I say you didn't actually want him to get lynched.

Fakey and awkward.

Is it worse than sitting on the fence, which is what I was doing before this?

So you were acting scummy before you made the scummy post.

SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.

Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?

No, he's implying the opposite (which he shouldn't do as your scum partner). This is obvious from the rest of his post.

[Ellibereth]

My Current think by the way:

PEOPLE I BELIEVE
Elli = Govern
Wolf = Neighbor
Hoopla = Vanilla (Backup) (I flip-flopped ten million times on her throughout this game already...)
Jack = Venge
Fate = Bomb!! (Pending reread, my gut has felt town here for the space of the whole game though).
Stranger = Vanilla (Bomb) (Apparently Fate said that the only way Stranger is scum is if Fate is scum? Only reason he's here right now).

So that would leave...
The1fifi
Devotress
Faraday
TonyMontana

[StrangerCoug]

Announcing a wish not to repeat the same mistake last time is a null tell. Supposed you were lynched as scum for heavy tunneling on a player. Would you want to tunnel heavily again? I don't think so. Would you view people who tunneled heavily on a player as scummy afterward? I can't think of a logical reason why not. Your attack here basically calls me scummy for acting on past experiences.

Actually no. I said that you were:

1) Reading carelessly, as shown by you not understanding Red's post
2) Voting on a weak case, which you later made your centerpiece
3) And I said that my feeling was that you were thinking in the mindset of scum

So the main point was that it was a weak, careless buss. You ignore that part here, and dismissively talk about null tells which have no relation to gut feel.

So you think my problem is that I strawmanned him, is that correct?

As for the other part, I think we've just reached another impasse. I say you're accusing me of slipping by worrying about what got me lynched in PYP I, you say that I'm thinking more about what happened to me in PYP I than on the actual case. What is the difference in standpoint that I should know?

2 themes here:

1) Socrates is obv scum

Understandable.

So you were in fact convinced he was scum? Why?

Socrates explanation of the numbers made no sense. I thought that was my main pursuit of him pre-claim.

Fakey and awkward.

Is it worse than sitting on the fence, which is what I was doing before this?

So you were acting scummy before you made the scummy post.

You're damning me if I do and damning me if I don't. My post makes it clear that I concede to fence-sitting, but when I realize that the odds weren't in favor of Socrates being town, it's scummy when I finally come to my senses and act on it? What's going on?

SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.

Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?

No, he's implying the opposite (which he shouldn't do as your scum partner). This is obvious from the rest of his post.

I don't want to know what you think right now, I want to know what he thinks.

[Fate]

I'm back.

@Ellie, my gambit with Faraday proved him town.

I pretended to be Porkens in the QT. When Porkens died he said, "ugh Socrates. At least we got one scum." Then he said, after realizing it, "oh you're dead, fuck it."

Scum would not have done this, knowing they killed Porkens. Faraday is 100% town to me.

I'll respond to the rest in a few.

[Fate]

I don't get where Fate is getting the "coug must be town". Is it solely based on "he took a hell of a risk claiming it"? He didn't take a big risk.

Fate is saying that me or fifi is the scumvig, and that he (fate) is town. If that's the case, then coug going for bomb makes sense as scum, it's not a huge risk. If he gets counterclaimed they know where the bomb is and one of the non-vig scum (coug could be non-vig) gets lynched. If fate thinks I'm lying about being vengeful, then coug could be the vengeful and the scum could win with his lynch.

Ok, that's as clear as I can make that paragraph. Essentially, there is no reason for Fate as town to assume that coug is innocent. All of the other assumptions he's making (devotress could be vengeful, etc) make sense with coug being scum. Ergo, he is probably coug's scumbuddy.

He didn't take a big risk? Look, since you're saying you're town and I'm town as well. He claimed bomb was above him: Only town was above him. He'd be outed as a liar. This is so simple I do not understand why people are failing to grasp it:

1. SC didn't know my role, or Jack's
2. SC claims the bomb is above him. The only way this works as scum was to "prove" Socrates was the bomb, but it should have been clear to him that Socrates was going to be lynched.

Actually #2 looks more tempting right now. Especially with the way he is defending himself...

[The1fifi]

I'm back.

@Ellie, my gambit with Faraday proved him town.

I pretended to be Porkens in the QT. When Porkens died he said, "ugh Socrates. At least we got one scum." Then he said, after realizing it, "oh you're dead, fuck it."

Scum would not have done this, knowing they killed Porkens.

Faraday is 100% town to me.

I'll respond to the rest in a few.

that doesn't help, you know.. we need to find the vig..

[Fate]

Initial vote for soc (after the rvs vote which was unvoted):

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

Context:
Soc said hoopla was scummy because her plan for pushing the top of the draft order was pro-scum (the town power roles would get lynched). He theorized that if hoop was scum, the mafia had done badly in the draft.

RedCoyote said this was contradictory because it's like he is using hoopla's logic (about scum being in a certain part of the draft). He isn't though, she's going by number analysis and he's saying her scummy pushing of it indicates that the mafia did badly if she herself is scum.

Coug agrees, but

misses the point

. He focuses on the "hoopla and/or fate flips scum" part. The other reason for his vote is that he's remembering getting lynched as scum in the last game--or something, the last part of the post doesn't make much sense to me. It sounds more like he's thinking about not making the slip he made last game.

Announcing a wish not to repeat the same mistake last time is a null tell. Supposed you were lynched as scum for heavy tunneling on a player. Would you want to tunnel heavily again? I don't think so. Would you view people who tunneled heavily on a player as scummy afterward? I can't think of a logical reason why not. Your attack here basically calls me scummy for acting on past experiences.

Defense of irrelevant D1 BS, don't like this at all.

Heh. So I did.

Screw it anyway. I'm hurting myself by leaving myself open on Socrates, and the "backfired gambit" reads more scum than town.

Unvote if necessary
Vote: Socrates

Fakey and awkward.

Is it worse than sitting on the fence, which is what I was doing before this?

It is worse because it backs up the theory that maybe you fakeclaimed vanilla going for bomb to try to hold up Socrates' theory, and then backpedaled realizing "leaving myself open on Socrates will only make me look worse."

SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack.

Your wording implies that you think I'm scum either way. I don't think your statement here is scummy, but I want to probe into your thought processes for a bit: Why would it be more risky for me to claim I went for the bomb if I were scum with Jack than if I were not?

You got it backwards

This does not come off to me as genuine. It is OMGUS and WIFOM mixed together, and I'm having a hard time seeing any sort of case on Fate. (Pop quiz for everyone else: Who do I think is vig?)

Vote: The1fifi

I don't like this post. SC, you fail to mention the fact that EITHER JACK OR MYSELF ARE THE BOMB. You, "fail" to see the case on me? From your POV, the only case you could have on me is:

I'm scumvig with Jackbomb and he claimed something else so I could claim bomb. But you mention none of this in your thought process, even though it should be very important to you.

This almost seems like a scumslip, SC. Did you forget you had claimed bomb?

I really don't know what to read of SC. He could be just a confused townie, but if I were in his shoes I'd latch on to the "look I claimed vanilla going for bomb and Fate was bomb! Why would I do this as scum?" Instead of, "I don't see the case on Fate. Here's a defense of all my scummy posts I made in the past."