Mafia 107 - Christmas Time Mafia (Game over)

[Tarballs]

1st Vote Count of Day 5

2 - CCARaven4

(ready2rock, RichardGHP)

1 - Konowa

(CCARaven4)

1 - ready2rock

(DocPotter)

3 - Not voting

(curiouskarmadog, Konowa, sorasgoof)


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for this day is March 9th, 2010.

[RichardGHP]

@ckd: Full game night actions incoming.

Night 1 - Investigated Nicodemus (blocked)
Night 2 - Commuted
Night 3 - Protected Dizzy (Notice that there was no pop this night)
Night 4 - Blocked ready2rock (There was no pop this night either)

Re mafia cop: The mafia had a roleblocker and a doctor, so logically, it would make sense for them to have a cop as well... even if it was a flavour/role cop.
Having said that, 5 scum in a 20 player game would be a bit unbalanced.

Re Town JK: If it's anything like the epicmafia Jailer (Assuming that the EM role was the basis for it), the jailed can not act, nor be acted on. With a roleblocker, the blocked simply can't act; they're still susceptible to NKs, protections, investigations etc. Hooker and Drunk is a far better mix (..and... don't interperate that the wrong way :/), since they share the same powers (standard RBing). Hooker and Jailkeeper combination doesn't make any sense to me at all.

I ISO'd pman posthumously, and I was able to find this little gem:

Game Related: MOVE FASTER! POST MORE! KILL RAVEN MORE! GOGOGO

With pman flipping scum, I am now 90% sure Raven is town.

Unvote

.

Scum - especially newb scum - wouldn't bus like this, and pman trying to pass it off as a joke is so obvious looking back. I think Raven is misguided town more than anything now, not scum. Add to that the improbability of 5 scum in a game of this size, I don't think Raven is scum anymore.

[ready2rock]

I ISO'd pman posthumously, and I was able to find this little gem:

Game Related: MOVE FASTER! POST MORE! KILL RAVEN MORE! GOGOGO

With pman flipping scum, I am now 90% sure Raven is town.

Unvote

.

Scum - especially newb scum - wouldn't bus like this, and pman trying to pass it off as a joke is so obvious looking back. I think Raven is misguided town more than anything now, not scum. Add to that the improbability of 5 scum in a game of this size, I don't think Raven is scum anymore.

I think he's the SK, which is why my vote stays on Raven.

Also, if you're going to say that I'm the SK, at least give some reasoning. I'll claim if you REALLY want me to, but I'd rather not.

[RichardGHP]

Well, since I'm basically a cleared VT at this point, I'm willing to join whatever wagon gains the most steam.

Vote: ready2rock

.

@r2r - Why the hesitation to claim? If you are a PR that could potentially help us, you need to say so now. Otherwise, my vote stays (unless another wagon overtakes yours). Hesitation to claim is either a PR tell or a scumtell, IMO.

[DocPotter]

I did give reasoning. Based on logic.
My only worry is that the 'Pop' is a one shot, but a town one-shot should have claimed by now, with the reason for the target.
With the 'slicer' hitting scum so often, logic kinda says that that is a town vig.

General game design says we should have 1 scum, 1 SK, or 1 of each left, with only 1 anti-town being the more likely for a 20 player game.

Worst case is we lynch town, with 1 scum, 1 SK, and 1 vig left pushing us into a weird 3 player endgame, but as I said I think that's unlikely.

Most likely is that the 'Pop' is the SK and that he got blocked by Richard.
Otherwise we're looking at 'Pop' doubling up on targets at least once, probably more than once.

Finally, and to mind least likely, 'Pop' is Richard and he lied about parts of his JOAT. Specifically about having a 1 shot vig.

I suppose the question people have to ask is:
15 town, 4 scum, 1 SK or 14 town. 5 scum, 1 SK. With town having a vig.

[sorasgoof]

Because I find R2R to be the most suspicious at this point, I'm going to

vote: ready2rock

. If you have a pro-town role, I suggest you claim at this point.

[sorasgoof]

EBWOP: Did I just use the phrase "at this point" twice in the same post? Dang. That looks stupid.

[ready2rock]

Fine, I'll claim.

I'm an even night vig. I popped DoS night 2 because he was the most suspicious in my eyes (thanks a lot Parama) and I tried to kill CCARaven4 last night and that failed. Obviously I fully believe Richard's claim at this point.

I didn't want to claim because I think that I'll get killed tonight, but I guess if it stops them from killing the cop or doctor...

@soras: I don't think you have found me suspicious all game, and now I'm the most suspicious player in the game out of nowhere? That's a wagon vote.

FoS: soras

[ready2rock]

EBWOP @soras: WHY do you think I'm so suspicious. You haven't given any reasoning for your vote other than "I think he's really suspicious".

btw, if there is a mafia left, I don't think it's a cop. That would make 1 mafia goon out of 5, a doctor, a cop a RB, and a godfather. That would be a very powerful mafia group.

[CCARaven4]

You tried to kill me last night? I find that a little hard to believe. Not the fact that you failed, but your decision to try to pop me seems like a bad one for someone like you who has played enough to know better. Both yesterday and today I have been the leading candidate for a lynch, why waste your pop on me when you could go for someone else and let me be lynched, assuming you think I'm scum?

[ready2rock]

I was far more confident in you being anti-town than anyone else, and since I think that there is just a SK left, I thought you were the SK, and thus tried to kill you.

[ready2rock]

EBWOP: although I suppose there could be 1 more mafia goon. As I said before, I doubt very much that we have a cop.

If this is the case, then I think we have our SK right here:

I TOTALLY CALLED PMAN.

[sorasgoof]

At R2R- There are a few problems with your theory. First of all, on a night with a slice, Dizzy rightfully said that I hadn't targeted anyone. Therefore, I can't be the slicer. I also can't be the popper, because you just claimed it.

Also, even if I were, I wouldn't know who was mafia or not. The fact that there has been a mafioso sliced like every night has no bearing on the situation.

I also said that I find you the most suspicious out of all of the players left in the game. I figured you had to have a killing role of some sort, and, because we want the SK dead, I thought you might be him. Sorry? With Richard's night action information, I deduced that you had to be a killing role of some sort. That's my evidence.

[ready2rock]

OK soras, that's good enough for me.

un-FoS: soras

[sorasgoof]

Does anyone remember who Dizzy tracked on each night? I remember that she tracked Navy one night, and me another, but there had to have been one more. I don't have time to go through the thread right now, but that information might help us in some way (if the person she tracked that other night is still alive).

I think Richard is basically clear now. I also believe that I have substantial evidence clearing me. I cannot be the slicer or the popper, and I'm certainly not mafia. That leaves us with CKD, DocPotter, R2R, Raven, and Konowa. Based on my own theories, I think that there is ONE anti-town role out there that we need to kill, probably being a SK. If I'm to believe R2R's claim, which I'm not totally sold on yet, that leaves me with CKD, DocPotter, Raven, and Konowa. CKD and Konowa are Neighbors. Could one of them be a SK? I don't know...we really don't have much to go on right now. Anyone else have any theories/thoughts?

[ready2rock]

Well, I don't like the way that ckd or Konowa plays, but they haven't done anything suspicious.

All Doc has done (at least in my eyes) is suspect me. However, didn't Konowa say something about DedicatedScribe having an anti-town role? And the one that disliked the idea the most (Amished) was scum.

I've already given my thoughts on Raven, and I'm sticking with my vote.

[RichardGHP]

Question at everyone not voting for r2r: Would you be willing to hammer?

[CCARaven4]

I am not willing to hammer. I don't think that we should rush into this, it seems that R2R's claim is pretty legit, it checks out with all the other evidence we have, including the blocks and such.

Oh and

unvote: Konowa

[DocPotter]

N1 Navy.
N2 DoS, nothing.
N3 Soras, nothing.

What we're missing is who CMAR jailed N1 and N2. Something that CMAR alluded to in #1374 I think.

R2R, what Kon said about Dedicated scribe having an anti-town role was that either R2R or the scribe is he SK.

Unvote,

I'm not sure yet if I believe R2R, but for now I'll unvote and float an idea.

Soras, you could still be a goon, but I think that is unlikely. Because if you are, then PMan was trying to bus you and somehow I don't think he'd be able to do that even if he had an actual bus. (See page 35 as an example)

No-lynch.

Firstly, it will give a cop, if any, another chance to investigate.
The night kills will also give us info, specifically if there is a scum left alive. Given the way the Slicer has been hitting scum, he/she might end that problem for us too if one still exists.

[RichardGHP]

DP, are you voting No-Lynch?

[DocPotter]

No, just floating it as a discussion point.
If we have both a scum and an SK out there, then a mis-lynch could throw us at endgame, possibly with a claimed town vig in the mix.

Crosskills and such can affect that of course, but the posibility means we should consider it.

[curiouskarmadog]

checking in...couple thoughts.

no lynch is a bad idea (at this point). We dont know if we have a cop so to base a "no lynch" on that is silly. Even if we do, it is still silly.

With 7 people...the break down is probably 6:1 (town:SK), doubtful but could be 5:1:1 (town:SK:mafia)

worst possible situtation is..
mislynch today (4:1:1)
vig miskills and both SK and possible mafia hit town would leave us at (1:1:1), this is a highly unlikely situtation...this is also assuming the vig is lying about his even night kill. it is also a situation that both the SK and possible mafia do not want to be in. a 1:1:1 situation, could result in a draw (especially if the remaining town refuses to vote.) or a tie. no matter what, both the SK and possible mafia SHOULD be trying to hit the other..

All things constant, most likely we are in a 6:1 situation with no mafia left. a mislynch today 5:1, if the SK hit town...4:1...tomorrow would be the best day to consider a no lynch (all things constant) maybe.

There is no reason to question R2R's claim, no one has countered it...and if there is another role that "pops", but doesnt want to claim, they will off R2R...clearly R2R is not the lynch today. Again, i dont understand why Richard thinks (at this point) that R2R is the move.

A smart lynch today would be Kon, Raven, DP, or myself. Ideally we should be trying for the SK.

Tracker had sora not doing anything the night the SK killed...so this is not the kill.

R2R, has claimed vig. The real vig should have come forward (everyone has posted but Kon)...we should then assume he is telling the truth. that being said, if you are the popper YOU NEED TO COME FORWARD NOW.

Richard....he could still be the SK. however, it is unlikely given R2R's claim that no one has said is a lie...so he is not the lynch today.

I would like to hear thoughts on this...and I am getting tired of Kon lurking in this thread...he doesnt lurk this much in the QT thread at night.

mod please prod Kon.

We should lynch one of those 4 (Kon, Raven, DP, myself)....

---
couple points that should have no effect on today, but want to get out there for consideration given that I dont see tomorrow.

if through our lynch or a night kill, we get the SK but the game keeps going...we got one more mafia floating around....sora should then be put back into the the possible scum list.

if R2R flips a vareity of scum, then Richard is probably scum too. Richard's current vote and push of R2R doesnt make any sense at all after R2R's claim and no counter claim. R2R is basically confirming Richard's claim, however, richard is still pushing even though there has been no counter. Why? Either Richard is an idiot or he knows that R2R is lying. The only way he could know that is if he didnt RB R2R last night (ie Richard is lying). Richard care to explain?

also Sora, why are you still currently voting R2R when no one has come forward to claim the popping?

I have said it twice...3rd times a charm...IF ANYONE IS THE POPPER AND KNOWS R2R IS LYING>>PLEASE COME FORWARD NOW.

[curiouskarmadog]

mod please prod Kon

[Tarballs]

Prods won't be going out until tomorrow.

[RichardGHP]

@ckd, I keep my vote on r2r for now because I don't believe his claim. Not because I'm bussing or an idiot.