Mafia 107 - Christmas Time Mafia (Game over)

[ready2rock]

Richard, WHY don't you believe my claim and what other reason do you have for voting for me?

I say we lynch one of {Raven, DP} today and then look into the neighbors tomorrow.

My vote is staying on Raven for now.

[Tarballs]

2nd Vote Count of Day 5

2 - ready2rock

(RichardGHP, sorasgoof)

1 - CCARaven4

(ready2rock)

4 - Not voting

(curiouskarmadog, Konowa, CCARaven4, DocPotter)


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline for this day is March 9th, 2010.

[RichardGHP]

Richard, WHY don't you believe my claim and what other reason do you have for voting for me?

Odds of an even-night vig existing are slim to none in a game like this.

With 7 alive and 1 or two possible anti-town forces, is anyone for a ML?

[sorasgoof]

I thought I had unvoted already, but if I haven't,

unvote

.

I think the lynch candidates for today, like I've said already (and CKD mentioned), are CKD, Konowa, Raven, and DocPotter (in no particular order).

Though I have an FoS on Raven, that was just a reaction to his "mafia cop" thing, which I thought was a little weird at the time. I don't really think he's the SK at this point. I think the SK is either Konowa or DocPotter, with the needle leaning more towards Konowa. This lurking thing seems to be an easy way of sliding by. I'm not going to place a vote on anyone just yet, though. I want some more discussion to occur first.

[sorasgoof]

Richard, WHY don't you believe my claim and what other reason do you have for voting for me?

Odds of an even-night vig existing are slim to none in a game like this.

I'd say they're about the same as having an even night commuter. Why don't you think there could be an even-night vigilante?

[curiouskarmadog]

@ckd, I keep my vote on r2r for now because I don't believe his claim. Not because I'm bussing or an idiot.

who said anything about bussing? If you know he is lying, it is only because you know you didnt RB him, not because you are on the same team.

also, your thoughts on why there hasnt been a counter, if you think he is lying?

[curiouskarmadog]

Richard, WHY don't you believe my claim and what other reason do you have for voting for me?

Odds of an even-night vig existing are slim to none in a game like this.

I'd say they're about the same as having an even night commuter. Why don't you think there could be an even-night vigilante?

going to ask the same question....if you turn out to really be town richard, perhaps you need to consider taking up hearts.....or solitare.

[ready2rock]

OK, there are 7 players left, one of which is the SK.

me: vig
Richard: JoaT
DP: I have a feeling that if he were the SK, I would be dead by now
ckd: see above
soras: impossible, as already explained

That leaves Kon and Raven. Right now I'm leaning towards Raven. This is what I found in skimming through the thread

Day 3: Kon was the one that wanted an Amished lynch the most, yet in the end he began to find him more town and said he stated that in the QT.

On day 4, however, Kon's top 2 suspects (as far as I could tell) were Bogre and soras. Raven was one of the people that most wanted a pman lynch and was one of the people to vote for him. This is why I believe Raven is our SK.

@ckd: that was a little harsh.

also @ckd: has Kon said anything about people that ended up being dead that night in your QT that would lead you to believe that he was the SK?

Same question to Kon about ckd if he ever gets back.

@everyone: Who do you think is most likely to be the SK and why?

[Konowa]

As ckd pointed out in 1646, the two likely scenarios we are in are either 6:1 (town:SK) or 5:1:1 (town:mafia:SK). With this being a twenty man game, I believe that the former is the more likely of the two scenarios.

I am in agreeance about those we should consider lynching today [Raven, DocPotter, ckd, me].

@r2r: Nothing ckd has said has led me to believe that he is the SK.

I am leaning more towards DocPotter being the SK, but I want to go back and read again before I vote.

[Konowa]

Yeah. Re-read confirms what I already believed.

vote DocPotter

@DocPotter: Twice now you have stated that you believe that the slicer is the town vig and that the popper is the SK. While I see that you are basing this on outcomes, what pro-town reasoning do you believe there is to have sliced Dizzy or Nico N2?

I think you are trying to use faulty logic to keep r2r as a viable lynch while leaving an important piece of information out of the equation.

[ready2rock]

@Konowa: pman was sliced, not dizzy.

[Konowa]

I understand that, r2r. Please read everything I said though.

These have been the sliced kills:

N1-Flareonage

N2-Nicodemus

N3-Amished
N4-pman

My question is, what pro town reasoning, if the slicer is the vig, does he/she have to slice either Dizzy or Nico N2? I believe my point stands.

[ready2rock]

Why would you bring up dizzy if he wasn't sliced? I guess I'm not seeing the connection between them.

[Konowa]

Nico was a bodyguard. I think that there is a very good chance that he targeted Dizzy N2 to protect. Bodyguards die if the person they are protecting get target with a kill. The SK targeted either Dizzy (and Nico died do to his bodyguard role) or Nico. Does this make sense now?

[Konowa]

@r2r: If you still do not understand, someone else will have to explain as I have to leave for the night. I think what I am saying makes sense though. I think DocPotter is using faulty logic to try and keep you as a possible lynch.

[ready2rock]

Yeah, I see what you mean. Thanks for clarifying.

[DocPotter]

I don't know Kor, why don't you tell us what pro-town reason the slicer has to slice someone who was

shot

?

Preview. Ok, I see that now, but if Dizzy was the target, why not sliced on N3 or N4? That leads me to think that Nico was the target.)

Tell us Kon, as someone who is actually sitting on information the rest of the town doesn't know, what pro-town reason is there for the slicer to have sliced Nico? I'll bet there's something in the chat.

I'll give you one though. Nico's D1 voting pattern kinda looks a little like scum bussing. RVS vote for scum for example. (Though I didn't see that until after I came back into the game.)


Kon, try 1627 ish, where I point out what you said CKD pointed out a page later.

Richard cannot be scum. NavyCherub's roleblocking pretty much prooves that. He can't be the SK either, because unless Dizzy lied he was RB'ed N1 so couldn't have sliced either.

Now for blatant WIFOM. Who did I originally replace, and do you think he would have given up an SK role?

[ready2rock]

I'll give you one though. Nico's D1 voting pattern kinda looks a little like scum bussing. RVS vote for scum for example. (Though I didn't see that until after I came back into the game.

So you're saying that as a pro-town killer, you would have killed nico out of everybody based on an RVS vote? No one was suspicious of him except perhaps Pie, who flipped scum. There were far more suspicious people at that time. When I went to make my decision on who to kill, nico never even crossed my mind.

Now for blatant WIFOM. Who did I originally replace, and do you think he would have given up an SK role?

Maybe.

You never answered my question. Who do you think is the SK and why?

[DocPotter]

After yourself, and we'll know more about that tommorow, I would lean towards the neighbours.
Two power roles in the neighbourhood is interesting, and I would have expected one of scum, SK, or vig in there as well.

R2R, I'm not saying I would have done it, but with 20:20 hindsight I can see where someone might have.

What I find hard to understand is why an SK would target scum so much.

[curiouskarmadog]

hell I forgot that Dizzy claimed that Navy Rbed Richard.....Richard cant be the SK either....not sure why I was working under the assumption there wasnt a slice kill N1....at any rate, that does move Ricahrd closer (if not solidly) into the town catagory. need to go back to see why I was thinking what I was thinking.

Unfornately for me....I am worried about the neighbor thing too...that is why I claimed it so early if something had happened to me, I wanted everyone to know who the other neighbor was just in case that information was needed.

@r2r, sorry if you think it was harsh...but everything I had said other's are thinking....and in reference to Kon, no he hasnt said anything that has led me to believe he is the SK..that being said, the only thing that has stuck out is the fact that everyone I have suspected or had expressed doubt about (in the QT) has remained alive (not NKed).....examples...r2r, Richard, and bog (bog wasnt sliced, he was mod killed/ would have been lynch)...the only exception was Dizzy, last night I express some doubt about her claim, and she was offed (again, by "shot" and not "sliced")...take from that what you may.

this is why I was against town lists so early in the game...it is a bull's eye for scum.

right now, i am thinking my vote will go on Raven...MAYBE Kon. Doc I am not feeling as an SK.

[ready2rock]

After yourself, and we'll know more about that tommorow, I would lean towards the neighbours.
Two power roles in the neighbourhood is interesting, and I would have expected one of scum, SK, or vig in there as well.

R2R, I'm not saying I would have done it, but with 20:20 hindsight I can see where someone might have.

What I find hard to understand is why an SK would target scum so much.

Why will we know more about me tomorrow? Why do you think I'm the SK right now?

Agreed on the neighbor thing.

I can't see a vig even considering shooting Nico.

Agreed about them targeting scum so much, but it sure helps us. Maybe they're just getting lucky.

@ckd: why do you think Raven is more likely to be an SK than DP? I'm personally torn on these two.

...Wow, we are at a stalemate right now. On the other hand, we have a little over a week to make a decision.

[DocPotter]

Night Kills will bring more information. Hell you said yourself that you're now a target.

As I said before, I suspect that the pop is the SK, ...

[ready2rock]

Night Kills will bring more information. Hell you said yourself that you're now a target.

As I said before, I suspect that the pop is the SK, ...

I know that night kills bring more information, but what information could it bring about whether I'm the SK or not?

Why do you think that the popper (me) is not a vig and the slicer not a SK?

[DocPotter]

As I've said. Pure target selection. I have a lot of trouble believing that an SK would target so many scum.

From memory, Pie was rated town by a lot of people. Do you think Nico could have bodyguarded him?

Is there anything in the neighbourhood to support such a contention?

[curiouskarmadog]

r2r, the only thing that is currently scummy about DP is the whole "I think the pop is the SK".....I dont, if I had the ability to read old games for a player....I would check to see how much contact Doc has had with SKs.

Doc, why (in your opinion) is the slicer the vig? And there is one way to settle this.

If the slicer is the vig, please please please, come forward. That means that we have both killing roles claimed...one of the two have to be scum.

No Nic frankly said in this thread that he "would do everything in his power to protect Dizzy"...that was a bread crumb if I have ever seen one.

I can see why R2R suspects you.....you have been pushing some bad ideas and assumptions (ie No lynch, Pop is the SK, Nico bodyguarding Pie)

ok, so I might be convinced to vote DP...

I just didnt see a SK being replaced so much. Doc is the 4th person to have that role