Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

[Thor665]

People are getting all hot and bothered over the possibility of a TCC lynch, so its frustrating to have to continually attempt to bring them back down to reality. I know I've been guilty of similar slams against TCC earlier in the game, but I think I've reached a bit of a turning point. TCC isn't treating this game with much respect, that's for sure. If we didn't have as much of a replacement crisis in this game as we did, I would have scolded the Mod for not getting on top of the situation. Be that as it may, the TCC voters are remiss to point out what moves TCC from being anti-town to being potentially mafia.

...did you actually just jump in and try to answer my question to Hawthorne before he could?

I'll concede this is three parts paranoia - but for later in the game in case I'm gone I want to point out a belief from me that the clearly more experienced Copper potentially just deflected a difficult question away from a apparent more newbie player. Depending on future flips - look into this.

Back on topic;

I do believe some of the TCC voters are remiss in actually explaining their votes. However I do believe the concept of how TCC is playing anti-town in a way that is potentially pro scum has been advanced. Yes, TCC's actions are clearly anti-town. However, she is doing anti-town actions that are potentially pro scum actions (promises of scumhunting and laying low to hope the spotlight is redirected, and leaving votes on useless wagons to suggest participation whilst not being connected to any mislynches)

I can't honestly say I'm ready to abandon RayFrost, or possibly Locke, as our lynch today.

Clearly I'm missing the deep scum sign from the Ythan/Ray interaction, I personally put the whole thing down to Ythan's usual pushing of...social (for lack of a better word) boundaries. If you can clarify without breaking any rules I'd love to hear it.

[Henry Hathaway]

So based off of this concept you're going with Kthxbye as more likely to be scum because he's participating more?

That would be oversimplifying the theory and making it sound stupid, sure...

Again, I think it has to do more with lack of care, than lack of activity. I support this by saying that *most* scum, due to the rareness of their roles, would not sit idly by during a L-1 wagon.

I explained this in the post (Before you quoted and asked me this question, but after the post that you quoted.) That is the reasoning that I have formed by this Kthxbye vote.


Another reason why Kthxbye appears scummy:

Day 1 lynches shouldn't be this difficult. Stats show that we get it wrong (read: mislynch) more often than not. We can analyze this day till we are blue in the face, but without some flipage, it's still more luck than skill in catching a D1 scum lynch.

I can certainly understand why someone would want to end a day after two weeks of speculation. However, this was the day that he was signed in as a replacement. An experienced scum would not do this, but a noobie scum would.

Another note, he puts up a blanket apology after pointing fingers at half of the players and calling them scum. That just seems fake to me, but I could be wrong.

[Thor665]

So based off of this concept you're going with Kthxbye as more likely to be scum because he's participating more?

That would be oversimplifying the theory and making it sound stupid, sure...

And yet I do not feel it is a gross misrepresentation of your stated concept. If it looks stupid to you then you might simply wish to reanalyze the concept behind the logic.

Again, I think it has to do more with lack of care, than lack of activity. I support this by saying that *most* scum, due to the rareness of their roles, would not sit idly by during a L-1 wagon.

I explained this in the post (Before you quoted and asked me this question, but after the post that you quoted.) That is the reasoning that I have formed by this Kthxbye vote.

I didn't disregard your 'clarification post' but rather felt my summation still encompassed it. I look again at your language here and in that post;
"would not sit idly by"
"maintaining lack of involvement"
What I see there is language that is indeed best summed up as 'Cheshire is not being active and therefore is less likely scum then Kthxbye who is being active'

In fact all you've actually managed to say is 'Cheshire is not being active now that pressure is on her and that makes me believe the lurking is legitimate as opposed to strategic' Which does nothing to support your Kthxbye vote and is, at best, a reason for you not to vote Cheshire. Yet you brought up this 'involved/uninvolved' concept as part of your case to vote

for

Kthxbye.

I do not feel it is odd for me to find it silly.

Another reason why Kthxbye appears scummy:

You mean, the first you've offered.

I can certainly understand why someone would want to end a day after two weeks of speculation. However, this was the day that he was signed in as a replacement. An experienced scum would not do this, but a noobie scum would.

Just to make sure I understand this - your theory of Kthxbye as scum is predicated on a belief he's newbie and not very good at being scum? I actually agree with you that this is potentially a revealing point on Kthxbye as I have been pursuing him on aspects of this point as well, but I'm not fully groking your logic here.

Another note, he puts up a blanket apology after pointing fingers at half of the players and calling them scum. That just seems fake to me, but I could be wrong.

I ISOed him briefly and couldn't find this. I see one of his earlier posts where he tags Ythan and calls everyone else null to townish, but I couldn't find the post where he zapped multiple people and apologized. Could you please point me to it? (is it in Nobody's iso, maybe?)

[Henry Hathaway]

Sure, its p387.

[Thor665]

That's the post i linked to in my above commentary.

the only apology I see is where he apologizes for "the wall" which I personally translate as 'the wall of text'.

What apology and what accusations specifically from that post are bothering you in juxtaposition? He really does only call out Ythan (and includes Scrambles with no real support) and I can't find "a blanket apology after pointing fingers at half of the players and calling them scum." What am I missing here?

[Henry Hathaway]

That was the apology I was referring too. Its small, but its very uncharacteristic following up those accusations. Intentionally trying to stay on the d-low.

You aren't reading into it like I am. Perhaps its reading into it too much, but you and I obviously have a different view on how to scum hunt.

My question for you: Do you dislike it when people scum hunt differently than you do?

[Copper]

...did you actually just jump in and try to answer my question to Hawthorne before he could?

I didn't address you or HH in that post. I clarified, to the best of my abilities, Copper's current position on TCC. I think our general consensus is that TCC is not the best lynch today (unless the lynch is intended to be purely political).

If you can clarify without breaking any rules I'd love to hear it.

I think it would be okay to say that I'm worried Ythan/RayFrost may or may not have knowledge of each other's roles in this game. Like I was telling RayFrost though, this is all auxillary to the fact that both Ythan and RayFrost have been scummy. Copper has voted Ythan and RayFrost at separate times before Ythan was replaced. This can't be disputed, and, as a matter of fact, specific, clear posts indicating this can very easily be pointed to.

[Thor665]

That was the apology I was referring too. Its small, but its very uncharacteristic following up those accusations. Intentionally trying to stay on the d-low.

You aren't reading into it like I am. Perhaps its reading into it too much, but you and I obviously have a different view on how to scum hunt.

Well, no, I am not reading it the way you are because I think you're misrepresenting it. Let's look at your accusation and his apology.

Another note, he puts up a blanket apology after pointing fingers at half of the players and calling them scum. That just seems fake to me, but I could be wrong.

Those are my 2 cents. Sorry for the wall.

First off - he only listed Ythan and Scrambles(Henry Hathaway) as scummy. If you squint you could even accept he dinged Copper.

That is not "pointing fingers at half the players" and I literally cannot understand how you reached that conclusion.

The apology is then a general hand-wave to posting a wall of text, which he did, and I don't see how it is an attempt to back away from what he said rather then simply being an admission he just posted a wall of text. What about if I double post and apologize? I often do this (and probably have done it in this thread) - would you think that was scummy pandering if I did it while making accusations at someone?

I also wouldn't call his apology a "blanket apology." He gave a

specific

apology for posting a wall of text, not a blanket apology after pointing fingers of suspicion.

How do you define 'blanket apology'?

My question for you: Do you dislike it when people scum hunt differently than you do?

That depends - do I think their scumhunting is actually working?

If I think someone is making wasted efforts or poor logical conclusions and calling it 'scumhunting' then, no, I specifically do not like it and will challenge it. If I think their scumhunting is more like scummy actions then townish scumhunting then I do not like it.

If I think someone just has a different method that seems to work for them and if when I ask them questions I can see some sort of concept behind it I have no issue with them simply because they do not follow my specific methods.

I didn't address you or HH in that post. I clarified, to the best of my abilities, Copper's current position on TCC. I think our general consensus is that TCC is not the best lynch today (unless the lynch is intended to be purely political).

I found the subject of your response to be immediately applicable to my question towards Henry and I also found the timing of it (coming out of the blue when no one had asked you any questions in that regard) to also be suspicious. As I said, I admit the suspicion is perhaps simply paranoia - but I do not think it is unreasonable or illogical paranoia.

I think it would be okay to say that I'm worried Ythan/RayFrost may or may not have knowledge of each other's roles in this game.

Ah, I get it. That actually makes a lot of sense and is quite interesting. Having played a couple of games with Ythan I'm not sure I totally buy into it since he's a fairly ridiculous personality anyway, but I grok now.

[Henry Hathaway]

How do you define 'blanket apology'?

An apology to everyone. Which it was. It was my belief that he felt vindicated and in the right for his post, and it is a "flip" in communication style. Again, we are reading into it differently.

Our methods are different, for sure, but I am not going to stop using them just because you disagree with me, hehe.

[Thor665]

Our methods are different, for sure, but I am not going to stop using them just because you disagree with me, hehe.

Fair enough - I do disagree with them and I certainly do not see his apology for posting a wall of text as scummy in any way.

Let us revisit the questions you haven't responded to;

I can certainly understand why someone would want to end a day after two weeks of speculation. However, this was the day that he was signed in as a replacement. An experienced scum would not do this, but a noobie scum would.

Question 1 -

Just to make sure I understand this - your theory of Kthxbye as scum is predicated on a belief he's newbie and not very good at being scum? I actually agree with you that this is potentially a revealing point on Kthxbye as I have been pursuing him on aspects of this point as well, but I'm not fully groking your logic here.

You have commented about how Kthxbye was "pointing fingers at half the players." I have repeatedly said I do not see that and have even provide a list (three names long) including everyone I think he even came close to pointing at (I really think the list is more like 2) in that post.

Question 2 -

How (why?) do you possibly define that as half?

[Col.Cathart]

Votecount 1.12

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

If you'll encounter any kind of mistake in my vote count - please point it out.

TheCheshireCat (5):

Inquisitor JL, Zorblag, Thor665, CSL, Kthxbye

(Warning: L-2)

RayFrost (3): Copper, Pomegranate, Sotty7
Kthxbye (3): Henry Hathaway, RayFrost, Locke Lamora,
Zorblag (1): TheCheshireCat

not voting: none

current deadline is: 26.02.2010 7PM GMT +1
Countdown

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Important Announcement:

My comp just got fried recently, and now i have a very limited access to Internet. I'll try to get here at least once per day to post a fresh vote count, and any lynch scene/whatever that needs to happen. If you have a request for me, please remember that I may answer it with a short delay.

-----------------------------------------------

In other news:

Inquisitor JL requested replacement. Currently looking for one.

[Henry Hathaway]

I concede, its nowhere near half. Oopsy

[Copper]

With the Mod's recent computer problems, I can understand the lack of vigilance with prod checks. That being said, I'd like to perform an informal prod and ask CSL if he is so much as reading this thread. Even if you are unable to respond with anything more than 'I'm here', please do so the first time you see this.

I'd also like to clarify further on TCC that the reason we are voting her is not because we think her content is satisfactory in any way. It's simply that the smooth slide of votes on to her was too easy. While Zorblag is correct in his observation that if TCC is scum her buddies would certainly be thinking about bussing, bussing doesn't

look like this

- a quiet procession of voters each silently creeping on to the wagon without acknowledgement of those at their rear. But I'm worried that TCC has taken the disinterest in her lynch and interpreted it as acceptance of her current content and activity levels, which is not at all the case.

I'd encourage players to start asking people they know to potentially replace in to this game. (And thank Sotty for already taking up this mantle.)

[Thor665]

I concede, its nowhere near half. Oopsy

...congratulations, you have managed to answer one of two questions I asked. I really do not think the two questions were hard to spot either.

For the third time.

Question 1

- Just to make sure I understand this - your theory of Kthxbye as scum is predicated on a belief he's newbie and not very good at being scum? I actually agree with you that this is potentially a revealing point on Kthxbye as I have been pursuing him on aspects of this point as well, but I'm not fully groking your logic here.

If this has to go to a fourth without you at least acknowledging that you're avoiding this question I will policy vote and try to lynch you because I am a shallow jerk.

bussing doesn't look like this - a quiet procession of voters each silently creeping on to the wagon without acknowledgment of those at their rear.

Other then CSL (whose vote is terrible but whose lack of appearance is uncertain as of yet) do you really feel anyone else has glided onto the wagon?

The only ones I feel meet that criteria are Inquisitor (and he was the first and just requested replacement so - null) and CSL. I don't see a big, gentle, silent, glide there.

[Thor665]

Apologies for post spamming here (let's see if that counts as a scummy apology to Hathaway)

I forgot about Locke since he glided off almost as quickly from the Cat wagon. I'll agree that Locke's methods look scummish to me for the wagon in question as well.

[Copper]

I should clarify on how I'm using the word glided. In general, early wagon votes are different than late wagon votes. Early wagon votes are often spur of the moment, done for various reasons that aren't necessarily hunting scum, and can be done without a single bit of warning or reasoning. Late wagon votes, by contrast, usually come with a quoted argument that the voter agrees with or a short discussion as to why this lynch is better than the other candidates. There's also usually at least a bit of questioning done between the voter and the person being wagoned.

What's striking about TCC is that she was put to L-1 entirely by early wagon votes. Not a single person, to my knowledge, acknowledged that there were other people voting for TCC. No one had questions for TCC or were interested in any sort of defense. Not any discussion as to why TCC's lack of content made her more likely scum than anyone else's lack of content.

If TCC had been brought to L-1 because people wanted to policy lynch a non-contributor and chance had left her the easiest lynch candidate, I would have had no issue with the argument, and probably even hammered in a few days if no better wagon had come up. But that is not how this wagon was formed.

Every single person voting for TCC voted as though they were the first person on the wagon

. As such, my suspicions aren't aimed at JL, who really was the first vote on the wagon. It's Locke, CSL, and kthnxbye. All three of those posted as though they had, independently, found TCC's brand of nothing more scummy than the other kinds of nothing floating around. TCC quickly became the largest wagon and everyone voting for her tried their damnedest to pretend that it wasn't a wagon at all.

Locke's subsequent unvote of TCC shows that he certainly didn't think TCC was objectively the most scummy, and it's interesting that Locke said "Well, of course there's no way anyone can defend TCC, but pointing out that votes might actually result in a lynch - now that's scummy." Add that to the long-standing suspicion on Ythan and I would have no qualms lynching this slot.

However I think CSL comes off the worst from this. His vote was the epitome of a first-wagon vote. In fact, "where I come from, smilies are a scumtell" is more of an RVS justification than anything, and I'm not exactly fond of an RVS vote that puts someone to L-2. I have been patiently waiting for further illumination from CSL and he has, while posting frequently in other places, ignoring this thread entirely. I've hesitated from voting for him before he says more, but given the close deadline and the increasingly large span of time CSL has been ignoring the thread, the next time he comes back I want him to clearly realize exactly what the stakes are.

unvote, vote: CSL

As for kthnx, I can't help but feel that the back and fourth between Henry Hathaway and Thor will shed some light on the feasibility of knthxbye being scum, and I want to wait on that. It's also interesting that I feel the clash between two unrelated players should be relevant at all regarding whether or not a third one is scum.

[Zorblag]

@Copper, Troll be a bit surprised that you no be more critical of Troll at this point. Troll certainly still be on the TheCheshireCat wagon and given that you have pointed them out you clearly be aware of things that Troll has said that could be taken to justify a bad wagon just based on loose theory rather than particulars. Why isn't Troll getting more pressure for those stances from you?

Does the fact that the late wagoners included two replacements who cast their votes that way quickly change anything in your calculations. Troll feels that much of the argument that you be making would apply more strongly if the players in question had been in the game and had a chance to give more opinions prior to the vote but perhaps you no feel that be the case.

Have any of the heads of your hydra had experience playing with CSL? Troll no minds the vote you be casting but Troll be curious if it be cast with any knowledge of his meta.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[Col.Cathart]

Choir: Who's that player?

Me: It's TheCheshireCat!

Choir: It's Replacement!

Me: GOD DAMMIT ARGHH!!

-----------------

In other words, TheCheshireCat requested replacement. Currently looking for one.

-----------------

Activity check in progress.

[Col.Cathart]

Prodding CSL.

[Henry Hathaway]

The answer to your question, Thor, is yes. I thought I made that very clear with this:

An experienced scum would not do this, but a noobie scum would.

[CSL]

I'm here, but not for long. I'm happy that TCC is scum trying to get out of a lynch.

I lol'd.

I'll re-read what I missed tonight.

[Thor665]

Not a single person, to my knowledge, acknowledged that there were other people voting for TCC. No one had questions for TCC or were interested in any sort of defense. Not any discussion as to why TCC's lack of content made her more likely scum than anyone else's lack of content.

Do you think I did this? Because I strongly disagree since I did ask questions and did explain why I found her lurking more scummy. This commentary is far too wide catching and general for my taste. That's why I asked you who you found scummy for this. You ought to be willing to clarify who the tell has picked up on now that you have discussed it. Otherwise this looks a touch mudsling-ingy (proper Enlish is gold!).

As for kthnx, I can't help but feel that the back and fourth between Henry Hathaway and Thor will shed some light on the feasibility of knthxbye being scum, and I want to wait on that. It's also interesting that I feel the clash between two unrelated players should be relevant at all regarding whether or not a third one is scum.

Can you explain why without giving away the scumtell you're looking for? Personally I think Scrambles was scummy and now Henry is bursting with newbie theory that may or may not be scummy (I'm not sure of my personal read yet). However the only connection between our debate and Kthx I can see is it is arguable that I am defending Kthnxbye (personally I view it as attacking Henry, but tis subjective I'll allow).

The answer to your question, Thor, is yes. I thought I made that very clear with this:

An experienced scum would not do this, but a noobie scum would.

Since your scumtell here is *based* on the concept he is newbie scum who will mess up, what evidence do you see to support this? How do you clarify this evidence as 'he's newbie scum' as opposed to 'newbie town'

I ask because even if you have a newbie tell for him then you have to be able to still show it as a scum tell. All a newbie tell does is show someone is newbie - it doesn't reveal alignment.

[Sotty7]

Sotty: do you disagree with me that Kthxbye over-justifying his hop onto the wagon is scummy? Also, that's called switching my vote. I'm responding to new information. I fail to see how this is scummy.

Not really no, mostly because I do agree that we a flip. Ythan's ridiculous amounts of junk posting have made this day much longer than it should be. I'm in no rush to lynch though, but I do feel his pain to a point.

Thor665's question ties directly into the Game Theory that I was applying to my pick. Basically, that as people are less likely to be scum than other roles, people are more active when they are scum, because it is an experience they do not get to fulfill as often.

Is this a round about way of saying scum are more active? Because that isn't true. Troll explains this pretty well in his follow up post but I will add that activity really depends on the player. I have seen active scum and lurky scum and in between scum. You can't just use a broad stroke to cover it because it is different for everyone.

I am feeling slightly disconnected with this game right now. The lock then restart combined with my crazy weekend has put this game on the back burner. I'm going to have to look back though it all tomorrow and sort my thoughts out. (Ack another replacement.)

[Kthxbye]

Thor p546: I posted in bold as I felt at the time we were getting close to a hammer and I wanted the info CSL had promised. When I put TCC at L-1, I didn't feel the circumstances warranted a warning. I agree with the second part. What I meant, if I can try to be even more clear, is that at this point, we are starting to go round and round in circles. Logically and honestly, D1 ends most the time with a mislynch. When we let D1 go on too long, it muddies the waters a tad bit once we do have the flip. I say this because instead of getting people to consolidate their scum reads on 1 or 2 people before we see a flip, we have everyone suspicious of everyone else (exaggeration) by the time D1 ends. It's hard to go back and find connections between the people who flipped and those still alive.

RF p547: Hope the above clarifies the issue, if not, feel free to keep your vote on me.

LL p548: riding the coat-tails of RF and speculation. You have no questions for me? With all the cases swirling around, your reasons for voting for me are enough for you to think I'm scum? Looks more like trying to get another bandwagon started more than a serious suspicion.

LL p551: Makes my suspicion about trying to start a new bandwagon a little stronger. Any reason you care so much about trying to get others to vote me? What is your actual reasons for voting me? From what I can tell, you think I'm scum due to semantics and because I justify my vote in a straightforward manner. Please clear this up for me.

HH p553: Answering questions is squirming...got it.

HH p580: Yeah....you are the one reading it wrong. I'm not quite sure exactly how you don't read "Sorry for the wall" as anything BUT sorry for the wall...of text. Pretty cut and dry there. Please explain your case on me again without the "I have my own theory and Kthxbye fits into it"....I'm super excited to hear your case/points on why you're voting for me in a logical organized format.

Oh yay...another replacement...

CSL p595: Do you feel replacing out is a scum-tell? Do you think certain conditions must be met for it to be a scum-tell? If so, what conditions has TCC met that make his replacing out a scum-tell?

Thor p596: I don't see you as much defending me but actually reading my posts the way they were meant when I wrote them.

All in all, I think I understand RF's POV and there's nothing I can or am willing to do to clarify it any more than I already have. One thing that stuck out in the back of my head was talk about TCC having bussing scum on it, and then watching at how quickly people wanted to get their votes onto me to stall the TCC wagon. At this point, I'm not going to take my vote off TCC. Even though I questioned CSL above, I have been burnt too many times by being suspicious of someone, them replacing out, moving on to give the replacement a chance, only to find out I was right to begin with and the initial suspicion was correct. TCC is still my number one lynch for today, followed by LL for his jumping on my wagon then disappearing and letting others debate it. HH takes third place for scummiest till He/she decides to build a real case not based on magical strategy.

For the record, though I have 2 completed games on this site, I have play MS much more than that. The newb mistakes speculation can end. What I say is truly my thoughts at the time and if you think they are scummy thoughts, then vote away. When you start speculation though, shame on you.

Confirm Vote: TCC (and his replacement)

[Thor665]

(game post appended below)
I shalt be

V/LA (and by LA I mean no A) March 27th through to April 4th

I have discussed this already with Col.Cathart (with only minor groveling needed) and thanks to the plethora+1 of replacements we have had thus far the plan is I disappear for the vacation and return to my usual posting habits come April 5th.

If March 27th happens to roll around with a vote yet undecided I shalt attempt my best to leave what clever (and not so clever) insights I have prior to departure so that they may at least show my thoughts at that point.

==============================================

at this point, we are starting to go round and round in circles. Logically and honestly, D1 ends most the time with a mislynch. When we let D1 go on too long, it muddies the waters a tad bit once we do have the flip.

As I play more games I tend to believe this more. The question I have for you is; do you believe we've had no worthwhile forward discussion between your warning off of a hammer and this point? I do not believe we are currently going in circles and have been happy for the conversation that has happened because it has solidified a few thoughts in my head and opened a few interesting tacks.

....I'm super excited to hear your case/points on why you're voting for me in a logical organized format.

She has provided her two scum points against you. Her ISO is short and if you really want I can link them, they are in a list in one post. I am surprised you missed them, so I have to presume you saw them and decided they were not in a reasonable enough presentation? Why is this?

Thor p596: I don't see you as much defending me but actually reading my posts the way they were meant when I wrote them.

I was actually not seeking justification for my actions in that regard (I am far too cloaked in my own hubris already), rather clarification of Copper's thought process(es) as regards a scum read.

Even though I questioned CSL above, I have been burnt too many times by being suspicious of someone, them replacing out, moving on to give the replacement a chance, only to find out I was right to begin with and the initial suspicion was correct.

Does this mean you otherwise feel CSL is more scummy then TCC but that you will not change your vote because you prefer to go on initial gut reads?