Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

When you say "similar behaviour", do you mean claims of disinterest or lurking? Based on a quick msutils-search, he does appear to be playing less games now.

[Col.Cathart]

Votecount 4.1

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Let me know, if I made any mistakes.

Cyberbob (1):

Saint Kerrigan

not voting (5): Thor665, Steam-Powered Shovel, charter, MichelSableheart, Cyberbob


The current deadline is:

Sunday, May 23 at 8PM GMT +1 time.
Countdown

[SaintKerrigan]

@ SPS: The lurking, although in the other game I played with him (Newbie #855) he lurked due to apathy (he got lynched before he could be replaced; he was scum).

[Thor665]

Also, why did you neglect to mention SK's no-result on Pie?

When I discussed my reasons for voting him? Because it wasn't one of my reasons for voting him. I also didn't discuss the Buffalo Chicken Sandwich thing, which SK cited as a point against Pie - does my absence of mentioning that apply in the same way that I didn't mention the track? I didn't put overmuch value on the track because he could have been scum that didn't target anyone or SK could have been lying about her claim.

You asked for a quick mention of cases - I supplied that. Nowhere did I claim my case covered all possible bases to suspect or not to suspect Pie, it simply covered the reasons I suspected him and was presented as exactly that.

[Thor665]

It has to do with my speculation as to what Michel's role is. Since I don't wish to give the scum any ideas they might not otherwise had thought of, I'll refrain from elaborating further on this subject for now.

Though you did already ask if Michel still wanted to keep his role hidden. If you don't want to give scum ideas why are you nudging for Michel to claim now?

[SaintKerrigan]

Though you did already ask if Michel still wanted to keep his role hidden. If you don't want to give scum ideas why are you nudging for Michel to claim now?

If he wants to keep it hidden, he can keep it hidden.

[SaintKerrigan]

Also,

V/LA

from now until Friday due to finals week.[/b] I might be able to post in the interim, but no promises.

[SaintKerrigan]

Bah, fubared the tags. Y'all get the gist of it, though.

[Cyberbob]

(inb4 Cyberbob votes for me)

Yep! Not for your post but for the exact same reasons I voted you yesterday.

Vote: SK

[Cyberbob]

Here's an interesting proposition: SK is lying about being roleblocked. I mean how convenient can you get? Falseclaim Tracker with a persistent roleblocker on your tail and you don't have to worry about who you claim to have targeted because you're "guaranteed" not to get a result.

[SaintKerrigan]

(inb4 Cyberbob votes for me)

Yep! Not for your post but for the exact same reasons I voted you yesterday.

Vote: SK

You mean those same reasons which I rebutted and you have so politely declined to support any further?

And here's an interesting proposition: Cyberbob is lying about being a Vanilla Townie. I mean, how convenient can you get? You blend in with a bunch of other people who claimed similarly and you don't have to worry about living up to a power role fake claim. You don't even have to worry about having a gun, since you've already taken care of the gunsmith. Point being: me-scum pretending to be a roleblocked power role falls under the same jurisdiction of Cyberbob-scum fake-claiming Vanilla Townie.

[charter]

Here's an interesting proposition: SK is lying about being roleblocked. I mean how convenient can you get? Falseclaim Tracker with a persistent roleblocker on your tail and you don't have to worry about who you claim to have targeted because you're "guaranteed" not to get a result.

Yeah, this is what I'm thinking right now. I was just in a game where scum had an investigative role, and claimed their results day two (though she had something better than 'didn't go anywhere' to claim), and then 'was roleblocked' the rest of the nights. Cruised to victory.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... c&&start=0

Had Kerrigan not claimed until now, and claimed a no result, block, block, I'd be lynching him no questions asked. Claiming like that in LYLO is just an appeal to the town hoping they have a subconscious aversion to lynching power roles.

I'm trying to do these hypothetical setups in my head. Michel definitely needs to claim today so we have the final piece of the puzzle.

Kerrigan's claim is overshadowing a lot of other people's scumminess in my head right now. I want to reread Kerrigan's stances on Fate and look for some scumbuddy connections.

Cyberbob, who do you think Kerrigan's partner is?
Thor, who are you most suspicious of?

[Cyberbob]

I think SK's partner is Michel, as I outlined yesterday.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

So 1 Gunsmith & 9 Townies vs 3 scum, Cyberbob?

@Thor, it just strikes me as significant enough that it should've been mentioned in any kind of summary post; you weren't just talking about your case. It's fairly irrelevant if SK turns out to be scum, that's true, but SK was the alternative lynch. And if SK is telling the truth, then there's also a scum roleblocker, which means the no-result is fairly significant.

[Cyberbob]

I don't accept balance speculation as a valid rebuttal to, well, anything (except in extreme cases, obviously, like if someone was trying to propose 6 vigs or something). Do keep in mind that I'm not as confident in naming Michel SK's buddy as I am in my naming of SK as scum. Nothing to do with role balancing, it's got more to do with the buddying that's been going on. Buddying is something that scum do sometimes do with townies, so I am keeping an eye on other people's interactions with SK just to make sure that I'm steering clear of the tunnelvision trap.

[SaintKerrigan]

Buddying is something that scum do sometimes do with townies, so I am keeping an eye on other people's interactions with SK just to make sure that I'm steering clear of the tunnelvision trap

even though I'm deliberately ignoring the rebuttal to my case against SK, a case which coincidentally has Michel-SK scumbuddying as a significant factor.

Fixed for clarity.

[Thor665]

Thor, who are you most suspicious of?

Cyberbob, and then probably a mix of Kerrigan and you.

What about yourself, who are your top suspects?

if SK is telling the truth, then there's also a scum roleblocker, which means the no-result is fairly significant.

Wait, so you aren't talking the Night 1 track of Pie but rather the Night 2 roleblock claim of Kerrigan? I was discussing the current cases which were Cyberbob's on Kerrigan and Mine on Pie and also Pie's general outlook. I linked to the cases in question so you could read them in the original poster's language, why would I mention Kerrigan being roleblocked when I was listing my own case on Pie, and whether or not Cyberbob discussed Kerrigan's roleblock claim (which actually I think he did) would be inside his case on her, why should I mention it specifically when linking to his case?

[charter]

What about yourself, who are your top suspects?

Pending a reread, Kerrigan, then you, then Cyberbob.

[Cyberbob]

Oh hang on a sec, did anyone else pick up on the fact that today is most likely lylo (assuming two more mafia)?

[charter]

Yeah, there's six alive, probably two scum. Need to lynch right today.

[SaintKerrigan]

Hey Charter, Thor, mind elaborating on why you suspect the people you do?

[Thor665]

My case on Cyberbob has been made already and is best found here and here

My case on you, Kerrigan, is fairly much the basis of everyone else's case on you, and that is that you were scum, falseclaimed to earn town cred/safety, and that your odd 'track claim' on me was in fact rolefishing to cover the fact you couldn't accurately claim what the track was and then you claimed roleblock when I didn't pony up the info you wanted. I'll also happily admit that your continued roleblock with Michel left alive and Copper NKed just rings as all sorts of odd play to me (so if scum were hoping to discombobulate town - mission successful on me).

charter is in there somewhat because Pie got so heated on him, and Pie's stated belief in a Cyberbob/charter team did gel with some of my own feelings. I also felt that charter's pressure on me yesterday perhaps best quickly summed up here was an awkward pushing of the Thor case on questionable merits (Thor didn't immediately roleclaim means Thor=scum, as proof here's a game where I was scum and immediately roleclaimed...buh?)

[MichelSableheart]

Apologies, I still am rather busy, and can't spend nearly as much time on this game as I would like.

I still don't want to claim, and I still very firmly believe in the pro-townness of SK.

I'll have to do a very thorough reread in order to reform my opinions on the other players, but don't know if I'll even get to that this game day. Current gut based suspicions would be from scummy to likely town: Cyberbob, Charter, Thor, Steam.

Had Kerrigan not claimed until now, and claimed a no result, block, block, I'd be lynching him no questions asked. Claiming like that in LYLO is just an appeal to the town hoping they have a subconscious aversion to lynching power roles.

There is a very significant difference between that scenario and what we're observing now: in that scenario, SK would not have claimed, making it much more unlikely that he would be blocked two nights in a row. As a claimed powerrole who is under a bit of suspicion, that is not an unlikely scenario though.

I'm trying to do these hypothetical setups in my head. Michel definitely needs to claim today so we have the final piece of the puzzle.

I still believe that the information gained by the town from me claiming at this time is not enough to outweigh the significant disadvantages of me claiming.

[SaintKerrigan]

@ Thor: I fail to see how your second link is a case against Cyberbob, unless you're referring to the part about Cyber's 180 turn.

As for your case against me, it is entirely made out of assumptions. The main assumption is that I'm scum, and then from there you assign scum motivation to the other actions noted in your post. You also claim that your case has the same basis as "everyone else's," which sounds like an appeal to popular opinion (otherwise known as "well my case is okay because other people are using it too"), which is typically a scummy thing (lesser town players sometimes make cases based on popular opinion, but I don't think you are one of those lesser players). Regardless, cases based on assumption depend entirely on the main assumption being correct. What evidence do you have that the main assumption in this case is valid, or that the other assumption (I am town) isn't possible?

My main issue with a Charterscum case is that I still have a hard time believing Charterscum would tunnel Fate to the grave. What is your opinion about this? As for the rest of it, I don't see anything to show why a Cyberbob/Charter team gels with you, and your link is a case of arguing over the definition of a town action.

Michel, I can't remember if I asked you about this before, but what is your opinion on the idea of Charterscum tunneling his scumbuddy Fate?

[Thor665]

TL:DR - I'm answering SK's response to me.

I support assumptions as part of a scum read.
I explain the appeal to popular support as intended as a dig at her 'Thor is too neutral' point.
I explain how I feel charter could have sort of surprise bussed Fate
I note an agreement with Pie's charter/Cyberbob both pressuring me feeling.
================================

@ Thor: I fail to see how your second link is a case against Cyberbob, unless you're referring to the part about Cyber's 180 turn.

It is about the 180 turn and is an outgrowth/explanation of the expressed case from the first link.

As for your case against me, it is entirely made out of assumptions. The main assumption is that I'm scum, and then from there you assign scum motivation to the other actions noted in your post. You also claim that your case has the same basis as "everyone else's," which sounds like an appeal to popular opinion (otherwise known as "well my case is okay because other people are using it too"), which is typically a scummy thing

I'll agree that my case is based on an assumption. That doesn't make the assumption wrong, however. As far as everyone else, I was noting that because I found it funny that other players were using my case on you as part of their own (it's the same reason I noted to the shovel that mine was the only clearly presented case against Pie that I found) mostly it's digging at the accusation of how 'Thor is a neutral fence sitter' which I still strongly disagree with.

(lesser town players sometimes make cases based on popular opinion, but I don't think you are one of those lesser players).

Good lord, why not? In any case, thanks for the compliment I suppose, though we'll have to wait to see if I'm remotely worthy of it.

Regardless, cases based on assumption depend entirely on the main assumption being correct. What evidence do you have that the main assumption in this case is valid, or that the other assumption (I am town) isn't possible?

I pointed out how I felt your question had potential scum methods to it yesterday, that is a belief free of the assumption of you being or not being scum. Yes, I am assuming you are scum when presenting a scum case on you - I don't see how one can do otherwise.

To clarify deeper - I believe Michel and the shovel are town. I know I am town. With a presumed two scum out there from the remaining three players I am presenting my reasons for suspecting them as scum. Personally I don't consider my reasons on you any better/worse then those I used on Pie (incorrectly) and Fate (correctly) when you figure out the 100% scum detecting method free of all assumptions please let me know. I am dismissing the 'you are town' assumption because I see enough sketchiness in the way you offered your tracking question to me to make me believe it was not a total townish probe.

My main issue with a Charterscum case is that I still have a hard time believing Charterscum would tunnel Fate to the grave. What is your opinion about this?

In short - there's a reason I suspect Cyberbob more then charter.

To address more in depth; I'll offer up the concept that it doesn't seem unreasonable that charter was on Fate to distance from him, and then when the wagon exploded near the end of the day getting off of it would have been more harm then good for the scumteam.

As for the rest of it, I don't see anything to show why a Cyberbob/Charter team gels with you, and your link is a case of arguing over the definition of a town action.

I agreed with Pie's read that both of them hopped on him. I felt similar energy from both of them towards me during Day 2. The link was explained already by me as to why I didn't like charter's actions from that link. If you expand on what you don't get or offer a specific question I'll try to clarify - but I already said why I felt it was relevant.