Mini 954 ~ Mafia at the 11th Hour (Game Over!)

[Porkens]

The two people on my scum list are voting for me, huh. Killing the guy who GAVE AWAY his power and USED it in a protown way was the least town thing to do. Percy pushed it because cobalt was the OBVIOUS lynch. Herod makes MEGACASE 4.0, obviously replacing in scum.

I don't care two shits abou tany lurker fight.

votes.

Sorry. I shouldn't post hungry. EBWOQ

[VP Baltar]

I'm pretty supportive of the Porkens wagon, but right now I'm going to

Vote: Pomegranate

to kick this thing off right.

She's been floating under the radar far too much and when I iso'ed her I don't like her following regarding SOG/Cobalt. She only voted yesterday when I prompted her and when I did she chose the leading bandwagon on SOG to put him at L-1.

Then she coasted on that for awhile until Cobalt started to look likely. Then she tries to get off of SOG by saying his 11th hour power makes him look town...which was kind of ridiculous. At that point she said Cobalt was in "worse shape". Unfortunately, she doesn't even mention him after that and continues to argue with SOG about why he's scum.

The only thing giving me pause about her is that she WAS on the Nikanor lynch and stuck with it, but looking back she did only come to the wagon at my prodding (case came after) and it was pretty popular already at that point. It would have been a mildly early bus, but definitely not an unreasonable move if she had a bit of foresight there.

[Percy]

@Percy- Why do you specifically like Pork for Scum?

He has been conveniently adapting the suspicion other people have created to push whatever wagon has the most support. First Tony, then Nik, then SOG, then Cobalt. The only time he's jumped on a wagon that wasn't already developed was when he

jumped off the Nikanor wagon when Nikanor was at L-1 and voted for Seraphim/Cobalt

, who had only one vote on him at the time - Nikanor's. Sure, he jumped back on to hammer Nik, but I read the jumping off as a last-ditch attempt to save his scumbuddy. Nikanor/Porkens makes a bucketload more sense than Nikanor/Cobalt.

Also, read his attitude towards SOG in ISO yesterday and compare it to how "horrified" he is that SOG was lynched. He's decrying the wagon he spent a lot of time building.

Pom was blatantly coasting yesterday and I'd like to see some real effort today.

This. Pom is next on my re-read list.

Killing the guy who GAVE AWAY his power and USED it in a protown way was the dumbest thing to do.

I've already been over why it was a nulltell at the time. I had declared my intention to hammer SOG in 24 hours. Using the power (when the mod has said that certain powers were assigned independent of alignment) to make me king didn't point one way or the other. If you can tell me why without appealing to hindsight, that would be great.

Percy pushed it because cobalt was the OBVIOUS lynch.

There are so many things wrong with this I don't even.

I don't care two shits abou tany lurker fight.

What is a "lurker fight"?

Sorry. I shouldn't post hungry. EBWOQ

Your quote changed nothing...?

[Jahudo]

SOG's power was mostly self-preservation because he probably would've been lynched if he didn't claim. I think he would have revealed his power and given it away as scum or town. Unless someone's arguing that SOG-scum would've fakeclaimed a different power if he still got the same power that he did.

[Vi]

Vote Count XXXI:

- On the Warpath

Porkens (L-3) ~ Herodotus, Percy

Percy (L-4) ~ Porkens
Pomegranate (L-4) ~ VP Baltar

Minimum (L-5)

Not Voting:

d3x, dramonic, Jahudo,

Percy,

Pomegranate,

Porkens, Herodotus, VP Baltar

Battery Power:

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(96%)

[dramonic]

SOG's power was mostly self-preservation because he probably would've been lynched if he didn't claim. I think he would have revealed his power and given it away as scum or town. Unless someone's arguing that SOG-scum would've fakeclaimed a different power if he still got the same power that he did.

I doubt he coud just pop a power out of his brains like that <<
We should lynch Porkens, I'm hungry.

[Porkens]

Your interpretation of my votes is, sorry, wrong. You see a pattern where there is none, save that yes I would have voted for any strong wagon on day 1.

The power doesn't prove alignment, but the USE of the power was a strong town-tell. I have no clue on earth why he gave it to you, but the fact that he did use it gave him cred in my eyes, at least. I think it should have in yours, too.

My edit changed the word "dumbest" to "least town."

Someone else said lurker fight - it wasn't my term.

[Herodotus]

Porkens, that post wasn't a MEGACASE. Less than half of it was directed at you.
My vote on you has nothing to do with being on your scumlist -- you can see the specific reasons I'm voting you in the post you dismissed. If any of those reasons are wrong, let me know. Otherwise, just tell us who your other scumpartner is.

SOG using his power, per se, was a null tell. His choice of whom to give the vote to may have said something. The fact that he gave it to the player who had just said he was planning to hammer may have been a SOG-town tell, though I don't think that could have been a good argument considering it leads to WIFOM-like doubts (which played out in the fact that Percy became hesitant.) I also liked the fact that SOG waited for a while before using it, presumably to look for reactions. But this is all in hindsight.

While reading through the kingmaker events, I found Porkens post 410. If you wanted to lynch Cobalt, why didn't you move your vote to him? As of post 410, did you believe that SOG was scum? Did you believe that Cobalt was scum?
The only town-based motive I can imagine for that request was that you felt that SOG was scum, and you were lying to him about how you would use the lynch -- that you would use it to kill SOG. If you didn't think that SOG was scum, then wouldn't it be much better to push for a normal majority lynch on someone else? Even if you didn't think that was likely, why leave your vote on SOG, which made it useless in trying to lynch anyone else, and made it possible that he would be hammered before he could use his power?
The scum-based reasons for your request and maintaining your vote on him are easier to find. You wanted to burn the ability by making him use it (it seems safe to assume something like that would be 1-shot.) And you wanted the kingship so that D2 would end in a townlynch. And if some townie hammered him, that's even better for you.

[Porkens]

No I would have hammered cobolt. But I needed to keep the pressure on in order to motivate him.

[Porkens]

I don't particularily think Dram is scum at the moment. why did you defend him?

[Herodotus]

If you're asking me that question in post 534 about my post 514, I wasn't defending him, I was just discussing my read on him. I asked you about him because of something you said on day 1, but I don't remember specifically what it was. Probably the vote you had on him, and your reasons.
Upon review in ISO, you talked repeatedly about how you were certain he was scum, then dropped the issue. I was wondering whether that certainty changed, and whether there was anything more to the change besides Nik's scumflip.

[Herodotus]

No I would have hammered cobolt. But I needed to keep the pressure on in order to motivate him.

Please explain. If SOG was town, how does it help the town to pressure him?

[Porkens]

For me, he would show that he was town if he used his power.

As long as he withheld his power under the declaration that it wouldn't do any good to use it, he was scum in my mind.

Does that make sense?

[Porkens]

Yes, his use of his power trumped my suspicions. I would have let him live till endgame.

[VP Baltar]

I feel lonely on the Pom wagon . Little help here people.

[Vi]

Vote Count XXXII:

- ...And Subsequently OFF the Warpath

Porkens (L-3) ~ Herodotus, Percy

Percy (L-4) ~ Porkens
Pomegranate (L-4) ~ VP Baltar

Minimum (L-5)

Not Voting:

d3x, dramonic, Jahudo, Pomegranate

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(85%)

[Herodotus]

For me, he would show that he was town if he used his power.

As long as he withheld his power under the declaration that it wouldn't do any good to use it, he was scum in my mind.

Does that make sense?

No. It doesn't make any sense at all. If he didn't use his ability, he would almost certainly have been lynched. How does using an ability to prevent his lynch show that he's town? Would scum be less likely to self-preserve?

[Pomegranate]

I'm pretty supportive of the Porkens wagon, but right now I'm going to

Vote: Pomegranate

to kick this thing off right.

She's been floating under the radar far too much and when I iso'ed her I don't like her following regarding SOG/Cobalt. She only voted yesterday when I prompted her and when I did she chose the leading bandwagon on SOG to put him at L-1.

Okay.

Then she coasted on that for awhile until Cobalt started to look likely. Then she tries to get off of SOG by saying his 11th hour power makes him look town...which was kind of ridiculous. At that point she said Cobalt was in "worse shape". Unfortunately, she doesn't even mention him after that and continues to argue with SOG about why he's scum.

I had asked Cobalt to explain his vote on me, and he never responded. I found him scummy from that point on.

I don't think I said that SOG's power made him appear slightlytown, but the way he explained it, and that he explained how it would work for scum (without being asked). But only slightly town

But then SOG said that I was his top suspect; fine. But he doesn't want to explain why. I tell him that I want a case, because I want to defend myself. And he finds that scummy. And I find it scummy that he finds it scummy. And he didn't like that I found it scummy that he never explained his position against the Nikanor wagon. So I found both him and Cobalt scummy (if you fallowed all that). Is there a problem with finding two people scummy simultaneously?

The only thing giving me pause about her is that she WAS on the Nikanor lynch and stuck with it, but looking back she did only come to the wagon at my prodding (case came after) and it was pretty popular already at that point. It would have been a mildly early bus, but definitely not an unreasonable move if she had a bit of foresight there.

It's also not like I didn't make my own points (or build a lot on other people's points) against Nikanor.

--

Will reread Porkens.

[Pomegranate]

For me, he would show that he was town if he used his power.

As long as he withheld his power under the declaration that it wouldn't do any good to use it, he was scum in my mind.

Does that make sense?

No. It doesn't make any sense at all. If he didn't use his ability, he would almost certainly have been lynched. How does using an ability to prevent his lynch show that he's town? Would scum be less likely to self-preserve?

For me, I got a slight town vibe from the way SOG explained his power, but not much.

[Porkens]

For me, he would show that he was town if he used his power.

As long as he withheld his power under the declaration that it wouldn't do any good to use it, he was scum in my mind.

Does that make sense?

No. It doesn't make any sense at all. If he didn't use his ability, he would almost certainly have been lynched. How does using an ability to prevent his lynch show that he's town? Would scum be less likely to self-preserve?

Ahhh I see; the missing piece of the puzzle here is that thought he was lying about his power.

[Jahudo]

Hero (Cobalt/Sera) is downgraded as a suspect now that we know DDD and Tony are both town. I think Nik was just waiting to see if Tony would be lynched without his support. So when Nikanor voted Seraphim for throwing suspicion on DDD and bandwagoning Tony, it now looks like he was hoping to setup Seraphim as the scum presence on the Tony mislynch.

Porkens is my top suspect.

The only thing Nikanor said about Porkens was:

Porkens just seems to be pushing whatever wagon is biggest. His play strikes me as something I'd see from a hidden Tarhalindur Survivor in this setup. I have no real read on Porkens.

I'm now seeing this as just BS. There's no 3rd party's in this semi-open setup. Nik could have been distancing from a buddy but he wasn't trying to get Porkens lynched with this because it wouldn't hold up in any case.

Porkens day 1 didn't have any signs of being pro-town. I still think his willingness to lynch anybody is something he'd do as town, but I wouldn't put it past him to act that way as scum either.


The first time Porkens acknowledged Nik was when he was at L-2 with about 46% left to play:

Nik and the other guy haven't raised flags for me. I have no read on them as strong as my read on Dramonic.

Misslynches aren't bad on day 1, whether they give powers or not.

Plenty of time to get a better lynch, but he's non-committal on whether or not Nikanor is a good enough day 1 lynch even if its a mislynch.

I believe that long day ones are detrimental to the town. I have to data to support that, but it is my feeling.

If Nikanor was a good enough lynch, why not vote him to L-1 back on page 6? Or was that still a short day 1?

Letting yourself die if your town when you can prevent it isn't good for the town.

If you believe this and are still unwilling to try to prove your claim then you should hammer yourself and save us the misslynch later on.

Was this change of opinion trying to get SOG to use his power, or was it really about getting rid of him?

The fact that SOG USED his ability and wasn't lying about it.

Why couldn't SOG have been lying about part of it? Like he could king somebody, INCLUDING someone from his hypo-scum group?

Vote: Porkens

(to L-2)

[dramonic]

I endorse the above product/case/whatchamacallit

Also, Pom feels town, you can unvote her VP. Anyways the Pork wagon is so much tastier =D

[VP Baltar]

I endorse the above product/case/whatchamacallit

Also, Pom feels town, you can unvote her VP. Anyways the Pork wagon is so much tastier =D

I don't deny that Porkens looks bad as well, but Pom is far from town. Multiple wagons is productive. Quick lynches are not.

[Porkens]

As I said before; my read on SOG changed when he used his power and it worked like he said it did. It was a pro-town thing to do.

[Herodotus]

I don't think it's realistic that scum-SOG who did not have the power he described would claim that he did have that power.

d3x, what do you think of Porkens? Pom, have you reread him?