Mini 948 - Victorian Vampire - Game Over

[SpyreX]

Zang is either an absolute genius scum or, far more likely, town. Its just the way he's approached everything that floors me if its a scum-push.

I'm a little confused if you think for SURE one of manga and I are scum but want to go the other direction. 50% > 33% which is pretttty clearly what you implied there.

[cruelty]

because we can use the vigis to clear/incriminate you.


if all three of you shoot at magna tonight (which a pro-town magna should have no issue with), then his flip (inno or guilty) will basically confirm you.

meaning today we can focus on the three amigos.


that was my initial thought, anyway. i think it makes sense (feel free to poke holes).

[SpyreX]

I need to eat at it because I think there's some serious margin of error there (especially if there's a scum roleblocker) BUT I like your style.

[MagnaofIllusion]

No, it doesn't clear you, because as it has been pointed out, fake claims being provided for scum in a game with mod quoting is almost assured

The question then becomes what is the likelihood that the GM gave a fake claim that exactly matches a role from the game. I believe the answer is pretty darn unlikely. Given the text of Zang’s PM and the fact he went first among the Angry Mob claimers I’m willing to say he’s very likely Town.

Except for, of course, the fact he didn't hit it dead on or even a little bit AND said it was speculation.

That looked like a bit of fishing to see if someone would go "ohh yea thats totally how it works".

I disagree that it looked like fishing. If you thought that then why didn't you call him on it the moment it happened instead of waiting till well after the fact?

“he didn’t hit it dead on or even a little bit” – Let’s examine the three lines in question.

So the only thing I could come up with is that they can't choose who they shoot at night. Thinking about the flavor of the game, I thought of a mob killing a monster. So there might be a group of weak vigs?

Line 1 “So the only thing I could come up with is that they can’t choose who they shoot at night.”

I read this as “Weak Vigs can’t simply choose a victim and bam it happens”. This is accurate, as the kill depends on coordination with other Mob members.

Line 2 “Thinking about the flavor of the game, I thought of a mob killing a monster.” This is a description of how the weak vig mechanic works. He even uses the word Mob.

Line 3 “So there might be a group of weak vigs?” – Absolutely correct.

As for the whole speculation line what else do you expect to be said given how negatively everyone reacted to suspected role fishing / claiming on Day 1?

If CMAR had a.) actually got it right or b.) instead of playing slappywags at that point just laid out what was actually going on instead of dancing well.

The point remains – I saw what he said and immediately thought “He’s part of the Mob” and thus never voted for him despite the fact that he was my Night 1 target. You say it wasn’t clear. I disagree. Let’s ask Zang, the only semi-confirmed claimed Mob member what he thought.

@ Zang – What did you think when you saw CMAR’s post regarding the Vig mechanics?

Since I thought something like our current situation and Sprex's attack might happen I'm going to highlight my breadcrumbs that I made Day 1.

A

gain I would like to apologize for my lack of activity.

N

ot to say that I don’t have a good reason – I’m a CPA in the most hectic period of my profession’s year.

G

enerally I’m more consistently active in games than I am here.

R

est assured this last week has been an aberration.

Y

ou will not see low activity from me again.

M

oving on to game related topics – this is going to be a large catch-up post.

O

ften people point to these posts by me as walls of text and decry them.

B

ut I’m not going to change my posting style, which I feel is effective long-term in hunting scum.

Emphasis added, of course.

Unvote, Vote: Darox. The casual manner in which you ignore actually contributing until you get a vote makes me slightly

angry, and I don’t think I’m the only one

.

Emphasis added. An attempt to signal who was originally my Night 1 target. Zang, did you pick up on this? If so I’m sorry … at the last second I rethought based on CMAR’s end of Day play and changed my target.

That out of the way let’s address a mistake I made in the town power role structure that no-one seems to have noticed

I forgot to include CMAR’s Spiritualist (Neighbor for the Dead, I guess is the best description) in the Town Role list. Corrected, the claims are as follows –

1 Cop
1 Spiritualist
1 Role-blocker
4 Weak Vigs.

Given we’ve not had any apparent 3rd Party kills I’m going to say there isn’t a Serial Killer role involved. We have to decide whether four power roles for town seems probable given the following hypothetical set-up for the Mafia

Godfather (scan resisitant)
Doctor
Goon / Other Role (Role Blocker suggested by Sprex)

I’m certainly willing to be guinea pig target for Zang and Sprex’s Mob action tonight. If Sprex is lying the Mafia will likely have to decide between killing me to maintain his fake-claim or killing the Cop. If two players die then we likely do have a 4 person Mob.

[ooba]

In 382 you asked CMAR about this when he agreed with my assertion that there were probably other Miller / Weak Vigs in the game. Why did you not question me along the same lines?

You said that it was based on your experience on weak vigs from previous games. CMAR's statement seemed to imply he had knowledge specific to this game for sure.

Setup design speculation
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. Cop is confirmed - town becomes way underpowered without the role.
Possibilities:
a) 2 Mafia (GF+another)
b) 3 Mafia (Goon+Goon+another) where the traitor turns up innocent but does not count towards endgame mafia count.

2. I think 4 Angry mob members would be too strong (increases swingi-ness too) since they are essentially town-confirmed roles. Pretty sure the role PM was given as fake claim to one of the scum.
Hence, one mafia in {Magna, SpyreX, Zang}.

3. I think the RB claim is iffy because I cannot see where it fits in.

Vote: TheSkeward

. I shall re-read the game again and check if the play is consistent with the claims.

[TheSkeward]

I think that each weak vig should kill whoever he thinks is scum out of the pool of weak vigs, since I agree that four is unlikely. I'm against lynching any of them today.

To MoI, I'm voting Darox because my opinion of him depended largely on NS/CMAR flips. The post you pointed out where I said we were thinking on the same wavelength? Read it again. I said we appeared to be thinking on the same wavelength, and I appreciated that, but I didn't have a townread on him. That was all in the same sentence, explained quite concisely. I don't know how you possibly could have interpreted that in any other way.

Preview Edit: HOLD IT RIGHT FUCKING THERE. Cruelty got a guilty on Yosarian2. Yosarian2 was a weak vig/miller, and unless I'm mistaken, he didn't know he was a miller. That point is critical to this throught process, so point it out somewhere if there's information to the contrary.

AND YET, he got an INNOCENT on SpryeX, another claimed weak vig. I find it extremely likely that all the Angry Mob are millers.

Option 1) Cruelty's scum. He claimed cop with innocent on a player who'd not yet claimed. This would have been a pretty dumb move, and anyway I have a townread on cruelty. Also, (modWIFOMspeculationyaddayaddayadda) why bother including millers with no cop? Unlikely.

Option 2) SpryeX is scum. He claimed Angry Mob at the last minute because it felt like a good fakeclaim. The innocent on him means he's a Godfather. Likely.

Option 3) Neither are scum, but cruelty lied about his results or EB made at least one of the Angry Mob a miller and at least one not a miller. Unlikely.

Option 4) Both are scum. This again means that there are millers with the only (possible) investigative role a mafia. That would be interesting with the traitor - they could be looking for their traitor and have four weak vig/millers to fuck them up. Makes the mafia pretty powerful, though. It means that there wasn't sufficient cooperation between scum when making claims, since cruelty declared an innocent on his scumbuddy who went on to claim a role that's almost certainly a miller. Possible.

Unvote; Vote SpryeX

[Zang]

if all three of you shoot at magna tonight (which a pro-town magna should have no issue with), then his flip (inno or guilty) will basically confirm you.

I don't like this idea. If he flips town then, we pretty much know that spyreX Is scum but we would loose the power to vig. I'm not sure it's really worth the risk, instead I think me and magna should vig one of the vannilas, if it goes through then we are both telling the truth.

So the only thing I could come up with is that they can't choose who they shoot at night. Thinking about the flavor of the game, I thought of a mob killing a monster. So there might be a group of weak vigs?


Line 1 “So the only thing I could come up with is that they can’t choose who they shoot at night.” 

I read this as “Weak Vigs can’t simply choose a victim and bam it happens”. This is accurate, as the kill depends on coordination with other Mob members. 

Line 2 “Thinking about the flavor of the game, I thought of a mob killing a monster.” This is a description of how the weak vig mechanic works. He even uses the word Mob. 

Line 3 “So there might be a group of weak vigs?” – Absolutely correct. 

As for the whole speculation line what else do you expect to be said given how negatively everyone reacted to suspected role fishing / claiming on Day 1?

I disagree about line 1, or at least I didn't interpret it the same way as you. I thought he was saying that we can't choose our victims because some other aspect does (the mod, randomness, etc.)

I do agree however with the other lines. 

@ Zang – What did you think when you saw CMAR’s post regarding the Vig mechanics?

Well, I thought he was trying to signal to us that he was another vig but messed up the first line so it wasn't so obvious. I actually believed this until his claim.

Emphasis added. An attempt to signal who was originally my Night 1 target. Zang, did you pick up on this? If so I’m sorry … at the last second I rethought based on CMAR’s end of Day play and changed my target.

Yes, I did. But when the kill didn't go through I thought it was coincidence.


Actually cruelty, it should be me and spyreX that target a vannila because I think magnas breadcrumbs, prove him.

I think that each weak vig should kill whoever he thinks is scum out of the pool of weak vigs, since I agree that four is unlikely. I'm against lynching any of them today.

If you think a weak vig shouldn't be lynched today. Why include this if you voted for SpyreX at the end of the post.

Preview Edit: HOLD IT RIGHT FUCKING THERE. Cruelty got a guilty on Yosarian2. Yosarian2 was a weak vig/miller, and unless I'm mistaken, he didn't know he was a miller. That point is critical to this throught process, so point it out somewhere if there's information to the contrary. 

AND YET, he got an INNOCENT on SpryeX, another claimed weak vig. I find it extremely likely that all the Angry Mob are millers.

This is wierd, maybe tonight cruelty should investigate either me or magna and see if he gets a guilty result.

[SpyreX]

I'll get into this more when I'm back at the machine BUT the chances are that yes there is a scum in the vig sets AND if I'm right a scum roleblocker will screw it up.

However, TheSkeward was nice enough to out himself:

Unvote, Vote: TheSkeward

In the post above he managed to:

1.) Say we shouldn't lynch a vig and then proceed to vote for one.
2.) Made the argument that all the vigs are millers (25% of the game most likely, POSSIBLY 33% of the game) as an argument for a cop being here.
3.) Ignores the razor considering the flip had both miller and vig as separate parts of yos's role - which, of course, would mean that both cruelty and I are telling the truth.

Yeeaaaa TS is scum which means Darox is town and leans even harder on Manga being the other.

BOO-ya

[MagnaofIllusion]

3.) Ignores the razor considering the flip had both miller and vig as separate parts of yos's role - which, of course, would mean that both cruelty and I are telling the truth.

Except of course that I'd wager you are the Godfather role, and thus Cruelty is telling the truth and you are scum fake claiming. So Occam's Razor doesn't clear you at all.

Zang do you feel comfortable Vigging Sprex tonight?

Nice way to constantly attack those who question / attack you.

[SpyreX]

Yes, me being a godfather is clearly more of a Razor than him being a cop who got an innocent on, in fact, an innocent.

Additionally, excellent point to quibble on ignoring the all vigs are millers business too.

And you're 100% right I totally only attack people who question me. Totally. It has nothing to do with the method of attack.

Nice way to gloss over the whole "Lets not lynch a vig, vote SpyreX" business.

[Zang]

Zang do you feel comfortable Vigging Sprex tonight?

yes,

but I would prefer this-

maybe tonight cruelty should investigate either me or magna and see if he gets a guilty result

[TheSkeward]

Zang, I don't think you understand the concept of a preview edit. You see, there's a preview button. When you're previewing, you can still edit. So if you say Preview Edit: whatever, it means you hit preview, then added 'whatever' to your post.[/teach]

I left the earlier point in rather than rewriting my post because I had to go get my student ID card and my friend was bitching at me to hurry up. It also allows you to see my train of thoughts.

To me, this is completely obvious. I'm pretty sure "Preview Edit: HOLD UP A FUCKING MINUTE" pretty clearly explains that this part of the post is in disagreement with the previous because I've changed my mind after just realizing something. Zang's just stupid. SpryeX is attacking it because he's scum and hoping someone will jump on it.

So SpryeX, out of the four options, which do you think is true and why?

[Zang]

Zang, I don't think you understand the concept of a preview edit. You see, there's a preview button. When you're previewing, you can still edit. So if you say Preview Edit: whatever, it means you hit preview, then added 'whatever' to your post.[/teach]

I left the earlier point in rather than rewriting my post because I had to go get my student ID card and my friend was bitching at me to hurry up. It also allows you to see my train of thoughts.

To me, this is completely obvious. I'm pretty sure "Preview Edit: HOLD UP A FUCKING MINUTE" pretty clearly explains that this part of the post is in disagreement with the previous because I've changed my mind after just realizing something. Zang's just stupid. SpryeX is attacking it because he's scum and hoping someone will jump on it.

So SpryeX, out of the four options, which do you think is true and why?

what I meant was, after your "preview edit" why didn't you just delete the top paragraph?

[TheSkeward]

And what's really funny is that the answer is in the block of text you just quoted.

[Zang]

I know, I was just showing you that i know what a preview edit is. Because it didn't sound like you understood my question.

[SpyreX]

Of the options presented by you? None of them. Since your options are one of us is scum OR cruelty is lying as town

Cruelty is a normal cop. Yos was a vig AND a miller as these are not pieces of the same role. One of Zang/Manga is lying - and I'd bet heavy money on Manga.

You know, what makes actual sense from the pieces we've been given.

However, lets assume in the course of one post that you went "don't lynch vigs.... lynch SpyreX"

Why, really, would at minimum a quarter of the game come up fake-positive to a cop? Since that is what your process led to.

Additionally, you're saying that instead of just being a vig I'm a godfather which would give ANOTHER poor result for the cop.

[TheSkeward]

It appears that SpryeX hasn't even read the post he's attacking. He just takes a few points and attempts to scream loud enough to drown it out. We'll deal with this bit by bit.

1) All the options I present require one of cruelty/SpryeX to be scum or cruelty to be lying as town.

False. I clearly present one of the options as "neither is scum. either cruelty is lying as town or not all of the weak vigs are millers."

2) I changed my mind within the course of a post.

True. SpryeX has yet to show how changing my mind based on a new realization is scummy.

3) It is unlikely that there is both a godfather and three millers.

Opinion. SpryeX has yet to show why my belief is scummy.

In conclusion, SpryeX' accusation of me seems to be complete OMGUS. I noticed this behavior with Josh, but Josh was scum. I was fairly sure of it D1, which meant (I thought at the time) SpryeX must be town. Day 2 I gave him a pass because the lynch was going to be one of the VIs. Day 3 Darox was scummier (until SpryeX started OMGUSsing me), but I'd be a fool to lynch based on my reads instead of role information as relevant as the results of a cop investigation, and SpryeX' reaction was hostile and accusatory despite having no real points against me (unless you count "I disagree").

[cruelty]

i can't conceive that there'd be 3 vigi-millers + 2 scum in the game, that'd be bordering on bastard modding.

i'm not prepared to clear spyrex, i'd prefer we vigi'd magna and see what happens tomorrow.

i also don't want to investigate one of the other vigis, because if i get a guilty that has absolutely no benefit for town at all.

eg: i investigate magna, he flips guilty, we're back to miller vs godfather. if he flips innocent we're fucked anyway i guess.


this is moot, today i want to lynch one of ooba/skeward/darox. not sure which i like spyrex's points re: skeward but i'm not going to blindly follow. need to think about it.

[cruelty]

hmm why would i be lying as town?

also if you believe my claim does it really make sense for there to be (at least) 3 millers in the game? 3!?

[TheSkeward]

Hey cruelty. Can you explain to me which of SpryeX' points against me you like? Or even, y'know, point one out? Make sure to explain why it's scummy.

[cruelty]

I think that each weak vig should kill whoever he thinks is scum out of the pool of weak vigs, since I agree that four is unlikely. I'm against lynching any of them today

...


Unvote; Vote SpryeX

i mean it's a fairly blatant contradiction, regardless of the gooey chocolaty centre of the post.

it's not like you at any point in the post pointed to a specific point and said ok, this is where i change my mind, spyrex clearly isn't a vigi and has to be scum.

[TheSkeward]

Goddamn, cruelty, did *you* read it?

Preview Edit: HOLD IT RIGHT FUCKING THERE. Cruelty got a guilty on Yosarian2. Yosarian2 was a weak vig/miller, and unless I'm mistaken, he didn't know he was a miller.

More importantly, can you explain to me why it's scummy to change your mind over the course of a post because you had a sudden realization?

[SpyreX]

Good lord ok lets dance:

1) All the options I present require one of cruelty/SpryeX to be scum or cruelty to be lying as town.

False. I clearly present one of the options as "neither is scum. either cruelty is lying as town or not all of the weak vigs are millers."

Fair enough. You do say that not all the weak vigs are millers.

However, You put two pieces together as "unlikely" like they were conjoined - additionally, this implies the probabilities of A TOWN COP LYING and the fact the flip was Miller/Weak Vig means he is a a Miller and a Weak Vig are the same (versus, of course, writing it as a Weak Vig Miller).

2) I changed my mind within the course of a post.

True. SpryeX has yet to show how changing my mind based on a new realization is scummy.

Its dissonance. Remember waaaay back when in a matter of posts our ol buddy Josh went "claim? Claiming is bad?"

Additionally, you're claiming it was a "preview edit".

A preview of what?

Ooba: Posted: Tue May 18, 2010 12:19 pm Post subject: 679
You: Posted: Tue May 18, 2010 1:41 pm Post subject: 680

So, we've got an hour and a half there? Interesting, no?

Lets look a bit deeper:

I left the earlier point in rather than rewriting my post because I had to go get my student ID card and

my friend was bitching at me to hurry up.

It also allows you to see my train of thoughts.

So you spent an hour and a half on that post with a friend bitching and opted to leave it to show your "train of thought" which was "one of the vigs is scum. I'm against lynching any of them. Bad reasons. Vote SpyreX"

Yessir.

Now, WHY really is this scummy?

Because Magna is the scum. And that started out with "lets not get my buddy lynched" and segued into "here's a maybe viable target"

But, lets continue:

3) It is unlikely that there is both a godfather and three millers.

Opinion. SpryeX has yet to show why my belief is scummy.

This is my favorite one, actually.

Lets assume there's a godfather and three millers. Further, lets assume 3 scum maximum as the weak vig mechanic AND the power weight of the town doesn't support 4 well. Of 12 people our cop would get:

1.) Innocent on 7 with 1 incorrect.
2.) Guilty on 5 with 3 incorrect.

So, a guilty now has a higher chance to be incorrect than it does correct. Awesome. Lets delve a bit further:

What happens when a cop claims a guilty in most scenarios? They get lynched.

With that now being a mislynch BUT a miller flip there's two options:

1.) Scum kill cop. Dead cop.
2.) Scum don't kill cop.
--- Cop gets an innocent: bad for scum in most scenarios.
--- Cop gets a guilty: even after a mislynch a flat 50% to be another one.

Net result: A cop getting guiltiest has more chance to punish the town than help.

Even better than this?

You're saying that in your own proposed setup the cop managed to not hit any of the guilties BUT hit the even lower percentile 1/7 shot AND your bro Manga is saying this is the simplest solution.

Ahh, but Manga said he'd be willing to take a bullet tonight right? Thats gotta be pretty town afterall, no?

Whats TheSkewards role (yea, I doubt this part is a lie) again? What happens when one of Zang or I, in fact, get blocked?

Yessir.

I could add in some other tidbits too (the fact that I've been pretty clear its one of Darox/TS as scum and as a weak vig a Darox mislynch today would have been a 1-1 net) in detail but I'd really rather not have to.

[Zang]

i'm not prepared to clear spyrex, i'd prefer we vigi'd magna and see what happens tomorrow.

what about this-

I don't like this idea. If he flips town then, we pretty much know that spyreX Is scum but we would loose the power to vig. I'm not sure it's really worth the risk, instead I think me and magna should vig one of the vannilas, if it goes through then we are both telling the truth.

[cruelty]

i read your post, i'm saying there isn't a really believable eureka moment in there.

7 left

1 lynch today
2 kills tonight

puts us at mylo tomorrow

or

1 lynch today
1 kill tonight (vigis no-kill)

gives us another mislynch before lylo


we need to discuss our best play tonight as well. do we wanna try and end the game mob-style or would people prefer to lynch?


preview edit:

zang it's somewhat irrelevant as we lose the ability to vigi after tonight anyway (it'd be far too big a gamble to vigi with 4 players alive).