Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

[Cyberbob]

@charter
@Cyberbob

How does your SK = scum case justify Fate's pressure on the SK wagon Day 2?

Here's where he hopped on

Third person on the bus. No real pressure on himself yet. Actually has to re-clarify himself that he didn't mean Pie but rather SK on some earlier stated suspicions.

Honestly Thor if you need to have the concepts of bussing and distancing explained to you then I have very strong doubts about whether the town can win this one. In one of my scum games I came right out of the gate voting for my buddy and did not move that vote at all for the whole day; that buddy did end up being lynched. I wouldn't exactly say that I had a free ride after that but I certainly became pretty townish in a lot of people's eyes.

(the point is that even the strongest - or weakest in this particular case as charter pointed out - of votes can be distancing ones)

[Thor665]

(the point is that even the strongest - or weakest in this particular case as charter pointed out - of votes can be distancing ones)

How do you divine (and perhaps define) the difference?

[Cyberbob]

Usually by looking at how scummy they are in other respects.

[Thor665]

Honestly Cyberbob if you need to have the concepts of subjective and objective explained to you then I have very strong doubts about whether the town can win this one.

Okay, back to the reading.

[Cyberbob]

hehe good 1..

[charter]

What the hell are you talking about? If you're scum then there's no WIFOM, what's happening is happening because you're scum. There's no option of guessing what scum would do. If you're scum, then obviously you're going to live through the night.

This is getting jumbled up. Let me try to explain my point another way: How does my claim and it's associated actions make me scum?

Why aren't you voting me?

I actually meant to in my last post.

Vote Kerrigan

[SaintKerrigan]

How does my claim and it's associated actions make me scum?

[SaintKerrigan]

EBWOP: Why didn't you vote me earlier?

[Col.Cathart]

Votecount 4.4

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Let me know, if I made any mistakes.

SaintKerrigan (2):

Cyberbob, charter
charter (1): Saint Kerrigan

not voting (3): Thor665, Steam-Powered Shovel, MichelSableheart


The current deadline is:

Sunday, May 23 at 8PM GMT +1 time.
Countdown

Deadline in less than 4 days.

[charter]

How does my claim and it's associated actions make me scum?

I've already said. It's too convenient. You claimed to save yourself, and of course vanilla isn't going to do that. So you claimed tracker. But you tracked someone who claimed vanilla day one, so you knew it was a safe thing to claim. Then day two you claim roleblocked that way you don't have to guess at anyone's role. Then obviously you have to keep playing the roleblocked card.

I've literally never seen a claim this convenient come from a townie, ever.

EBWOP: Why didn't you vote me earlier?

I didn't feel like it.

[SaintKerrigan]

I've already said. It's too convenient. You claimed to save yourself, and of course vanilla isn't going to do that. So you claimed tracker. But you tracked someone who claimed vanilla day one, so you knew it was a safe thing to claim. Then day two you claim roleblocked that way you don't have to guess at anyone's role. Then obviously you have to keep playing the roleblocked card.

I've literally never seen a claim this convenient come from a townie, ever.

I've already mentioned how all of things can be true from a town perspective. You dismissed it as WIFOM because I'm assuming the scums' motives for their actions. But you're doing the same thing. You take my actions and claim that my reasons for doing them were scum-oriented

when you don't have proof for those assumptions

.

If you're going to accept unproven assumptions as a part of your case, then you have no right to invalidate my explanation for those events because I make assumptions about why scum have done things.

I didn't feel like it.

Elaborate. You were clearing people because of me, after all.

[charter]

Ok, this is getting absurd now. Obviously it

can

be true from a town perspective, that'd be a pretty shitty claim if it wasn't. You're just not town is all.

Obviously I don't have proof of my assumptions, THAT'S WHY THEY'RE CALLED ASSUMPTIONS.

I DID NOT FEEL LIKE VOTING.


Ok, Thor, SPS. Please look at this utterly crap case Kerrigan is pushing on me. His points are total garbage. None of any of this even happened until I said I was suspicious of him, then he conjures up a case out of thin air. It's really obvious that his case is bullshit.

[Thor665]

If you're going to accept unproven assumptions as a part of your case, then you have no right to invalidate my explanation for those events because I make assumptions about why scum have done things.

Isn't this what you were dinging me with earlier, because I made assumptions of your actions from a scum perspective?

In any case, I'm not getting much of anything useful out of the charter/Kerrigan back and forth. So unless either of you thinks you're convincing the other one or you think anyone else is being sold on this debate, please feel free to stop it.

Still re-reading, some thoughts and questions;

Thought one; at the moment I cannot figure out how TCC?Socrates/shovel/et al isn't town.

That leaves me with Cyberbob, charter, Kerrigan, and Michel as the suspects.

It looks blatantly and bizarrely obvious that they're lining up as either a Michel/Kerrigan scumpair or a charter/Cyberbob scumpair. This seems horribly too neat to be true, so I'll probably be embarrassed to have advanced this idea in the post game, but that's where I'm at.

@Michel - You have cleared shovel for the same reasons I have. You have also openly and extensively discussed how you feel SK is cleared. You then have continued with a belief that scum is pushing a mislynch on SK but that charter and Cyberbob really can't be scum together.

Why aren't you voting me then? I'm the obvious partner at that point.

[Thor665]

Ok, Thor, SPS. Please look at this utterly Smurf case Kerrigan is pushing on me. His points are total garbage. None of any of this even happened until I said I was suspicious of him, then he conjures up a case out of thin air. It's really obvious that his case is Smurfpoo.

I don't like Kerrigan's case on you particularly - but since I also find you one of the two scummiest players currently (you and Kerrigan - during the re-read CyberbobZorblag/Cyberbob has been sliding more towards town) I can't fault her, if town, for finding you scummy.

I agree you have the point with the timing of it.

I'm finished up re-reading Day 1 and Day 2 (not in that order oddly enough) and I want to re-read Day 3 as well. At that point I'm going to make a vote and it will be for one of you barring any magically marvelous insights in that re-read. I wish to look again at the pressure on me from Kerrigan and you that Day and I know Pie advanced a strong scum read on you/Cyber and a town read on Kerrigan that I want to look at again to see if any bakery laden brilliance comes through to me.

[SaintKerrigan]

@ Thor: So you don't think that it's suspicious/opportunistic for Charter, having had a mostly favorable view on my slot previously, to suddenly say I'm scum in a likely Mylo situation? Especially considering that I was a popular suspect in the eyes of at least half the town?

Not only does he suddenly reverse his opinion on my slot, he clears his other suspects because of my scumhood. Despite this, he doesn't vote me. Why? "I didn't feel like it." Why would a townie not feel like voting for someone they're certain is scum? I can't recall a single instance where a townie has thought someone was positively scum, and yet didn't vote for them (except one, and that was because the town had to lynch one of the opposing scumteam). Couple this with the fact that I have seen this kind of behavior before,

from scum

, I think I have a very good reason for voting Charter.

[Cyberbob]

The panic is rising

[SaintKerrigan]

The panic is rising

The scum is smiling.

[Thor665]

Despite this, he doesn't vote me. Why? "I didn't feel like it." Why would a townie not feel like voting for someone they're certain is scum?

As an interesting aside - I explained how per Michel's expressed opinions I am the blatant scum partner to his charter/Cyberbob scum. Do you think it's scummy that Michel isn't voting for me?

As far as that aspect of your case on charter goes - what is the scum advantage to not voting you earlier after he expressed you as his major suspect? If we are in lylo, which I believe, he could afford to unvote and quick lynch for a win if anyone puts down enough suspect votes so it's not like there's any reason not to have a vote on whomever he wishes at any given point in the day.

Other then that a lot of your current debates with charter are based around some of the same stuff you were debating with me - of course I'm not buying into that as a case, I've already expressed that my play theory is different...except where now you're arguing from my standpoint sometimes. I'll note again this below point which I do feel shows some (I'll use the word but am not meaning it in a scummy sense at this point) basic hypocrisy in how you're debating theory of the game;

If you're going to accept unproven assumptions as a part of your case, then you have no right to invalidate my explanation for those events because I make assumptions about why scum have done things.

Isn't this what you were dinging me with earlier, because I made assumptions of your actions from a scum perspective?

You attacked my case as weak because I used assumptions. You then use assumptions in your defense and act shocked that others consider them weak. This is silly - assumptions are either functional methods to use within the game (which I believe) or they are not. Pick a side.

[Thor665]

EBWOP - I say we're in lylo, when in fact we're in mylo. Just because I'm a touch anal retentive.

[Cyberbob]

The panic is rising

The scum is smiling.

hehe good post u r rilly funy

[MichelSableheart]

I keep hitting my time constraints. Perhaps I will be able to work on my reread this afternoon, but I'll almost certainly only finish it tomorrow.

@SK: is charters sudden switch to you the only reason that you believe he is scum? Do you encompass previous days in your reads in any way?

@Michel - You have cleared shovel for the same reasons I have. You have also openly and extensively discussed how you feel SK is cleared. You then have continued with a belief that scum is pushing a mislynch on SK but that charter and Cyberbob really can't be scum together.

Why aren't you voting me then? I'm the obvious partner at that point.

The main reason is that I haven't finished my reread yet. I want to doublecheck that my reasoning for clearing SPS and eliminating an charter/Cyberbob scumteam is correct before voting on it. A second reason is that a vote on you may not be very helpful. Even if through proces of elimination I do manage to pin you down as scum, I don't know if that'll be enough to actually convince three other players to vote for you. After all, those other players don't have my vantage point. It may be that I'll be forced to vote who I believe to be your scumpartner, simply because a lynch on you is not feasible.

[SaintKerrigan]

@SK: is charters sudden switch to you the only reason that you believe he is scum? Do you encompass previous days in your reads in any way?

I have not gone back to look at the previous days, no. However, I consider the evidence I have presented so far strong enough to confidently vote for him.

As an interesting aside - I explained how per Michel's expressed opinions I am the blatant scum partner to his charter/Cyberbob scum. Do you think it's scummy that Michel isn't voting for me?

In ISO 47 Michel thought you were likely scum for that very reason. However, he also said he hadn't found time for a proper reread, so my guess is that he wants to reread and see if the evidence supports his reads before he makes a vote. This is different from what Charter did, as he cleared two previous suspects based on my scumminess, which means he considers me sure-fire scum. That's why Charter is scummy for not voting me, and Michel is not scummy for not voting you.

EDIT: I see Michel has answered like I thought he would.

As far as that aspect of your case on charter goes - what is the scum advantage to not voting you earlier after he expressed you as his major suspect? If we are in lylo, which I believe, he could afford to unvote and quick lynch for a win if anyone puts down enough suspect votes so it's not like there's any reason not to have a vote on whomever he wishes at any given point in the day.

Did I mention the part where I've seen no normal examples of townies doing this? Or that I've seen scum do this before? The scum advantage to not voting right away is that he can see how people react to the case before committing to it with a vote. Lemme ask you a question: what is the town advantage for not voting someone you think is scum?

You attacked my case as weak because I used assumptions. You then use assumptions in your defense and act shocked that others consider them weak. This is silly - assumptions are either functional methods to use within the game (which I believe) or they are not. Pick a side.

The difference is that you're assuming I'm scum and supporting it with scum motivation assigned as a result of that, and I was assuming why the scum are roleblocking me and keeping me alive. I could have just said that the scum are roleblocking me and keeping me alive.

In other words, you're assuming my alignment. I'm assuming the reasons why scum are roleblocking me and keeping me alive. Those are two different types of assumption.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

SK, what is the scum advantage for not voting someone when they've already committed? The only scenario I can think of in which charterscum would not want to vote for you is charter-SK anyway.

And there's nothing wrong with assumption-based reasoning along the lines of "Assume SK is scum. Then his claim makes perfect sense. Assume SK is town. Then his claim is awkward. Thus SK is more likely to be scum." That's just sound Bayesian reasoning.

[Thor665]

@shovel

I know I'm your top suspect over Kerrigan but I'm not sure if you've really explained why except for a comment about 'connections with Fate' could you please explain why I'm more likely scum then Kerrigan?

[SaintKerrigan]

@ Thor:

What is the town advantage for not voting someone you think is scum?

Still looking for the answer to this.

SK, what is the scum advantage for not voting someone when they've already committed?

If your false case gets a lot of flak, it's easier to back away from one that you aren't voting for than from one you are voting for. What's the town advantage for not voting someone you're sure is scum?

Also, votes show you believe in your case. The fact that Charter didn't feel like voting for me despite calling me scum shows how much he really believes in his case.