Manga wrote:You keep invoking Occam’s Razor like it’s an infallible proof of your innocence. Which it isn’t.
The fact that statistically you have a greater chance to be a VT instead of Godfather has no bearing on whether you are or not.
Its not infallible. There is a million things that COULD have happened. It is what it is: the simplest solution is
usually
the correct one.
However, the last part illustrates my issue with, oddly enough, both you and Skeward and how you are approaching it:
Its not "Well, even with the investigation there's a chance he's a godfather."
Or even "Well, cruelty could have been manipulated."
It's things like:
Manga wrote:
Except of course that I'd wager you are the Godfather role, and thus Cruelty is telling the truth and you are scum fake claiming. So Occam's Razor doesn't clear you at all.
[quote="TS']
AND YET, he got an INNOCENT on SpryeX, another claimed weak vig. I find it extremely likely that all the Angry Mob are millers. [/quote]
TS wrote:Option 2) SpryeX is scum. He claimed Angry Mob at the last minute because it felt like a good fakeclaim. The innocent on him means he's a Godfather. Likely.
TS wrote:
Option 3) Neither are scum, but cruelty lied about his results or EB made at least one of the Angry Mob a miller and at least one not a miller. Unlikely.
Which aren't even balancing the CLEANER option against pushing through a lynch.
Know what else is missing? Reasons for me being scum. Funny how that works.
Addressing you about your typical behavior does not mean I am ignoring Skeward’s point. Thanks for using more faulty logic to somehow ‘strenghten’ your non-existant case that I am Mafia (which laughably consists of you saying “He’s Mafia’, btw).
You'll get your case when the time comes. As for my typical behavior? Yea, I only push on people who attack me at all times. You know, thats why I pushed sooo hard on Darox after his funny business early on. And, really, why I pushed on CMAR out of the gate. VV lynch too!
Say what actually is happening: I'm attacking the garbage cases and stances that make far more sense coming from scum - you, TS, Josh.
Yes, because my not voting for you and wanting to vig you at night with Zang certainly proves your point
You know what?
@Zang: If TS gets lynched today and IS town, go ahead and shoot me. Otherwise, shoot Manga.
If I'm lying you wont die.
If you're lying I wont die.
There you go.
But if we are speaking about conveniently ignoring facts, way to ignore that I breadcrumbed my role multiple times. Also way to ignore the fact that your role claim bears little resemblance to Zang and my claims in multiple ways -
1. Zang, Yosarian, and I all have jobs (Vintner, Cobbler, and Tailor) which fit nicely thematically together as normal villagers thrown together into a Mob. Your claim of Dragoon doesn’t fit closely at all.
2. Zang and my role PMS both have comic undertones to our reasons for joining the mob (Zang’ s harpy wife will not let him hide, the town misunderstood my prowess with monsters ala Mickey the Tailor) while yours has no comic undertones at all.
This is awesome. Lets pan down a little bit farther in this SAME post and go ahead and let you answer yourself why this is absolutely garbage all the way through before I go ahead and tear into it:
If anyone is lying it’s you. If you want to argue that either Zang or I have a fake-claim supplied by EB that would just as readily apply to you.
A game with the ability to post YOUR PMS in thread? Yea, there's fakeclaims. It wasn't even discussed because much like miller-land
its a given for game balance
.
So, really, you are saying: As scum the fakeclaim I was given doesn't match the actual claims.
But, lets go a bit further:
1.) Dragoon IS a "job". In fact, if one wants to get all flavor slappy it makes the most sense as a vig.
2.) CMAR's post about Yos specified that "he wasn't really a nice guy." So, if your gonna streeettch for the stars that sure doesn't add up.
Emphasis added. The disconnect here is telling for me. Everywhere else you make ZERO allowance that there could be 4 weak vigs. The quote below doesn’t say “Zang/Manga is most likely lying”. When you are attacking me 4 vigs is not possible but in the statement above you give it consideration as a possibility? Isn’t inconsistency on of your big “scum-tells”
Diggin' diggin'.
Yes, I highly doubt there are 4 total because the mechanic doesn't make sense balance-wise with what I've seen. So, like I said, mostly likely 25%.
In the event I am wrong about that then the statement becomes even more ludicrous.
Um, Weak Vig and Miller are not pieces of the same role? Are you saying Yos has more than one role? Logic fail yet again.
Yes, I am saying that because its such a huge logic fail my lord I know I have problems with logic almost as much as reading HALP ME:
OMGGG wrote:Yosarian2, Miller/Weak Vigilante, Town, was murdered Night One.
Miller / Weak Vigilante. Two parts. Separated. For a reason.
And repeatedly saying Zang or I am lying doesn’t make it true. Face facts -
1. Zang was the first to claim.
2. I breadcrumbed clearly Day 1.
3. You were the last to claim Weak Vig, and with poor flavor IMO.
If anyone is lying it’s you. If you want to argue that either Zang or I have a fake-claim supplied by EB that would just as readily apply to you.
I covered this above but I'll do it again for emphasis. The scum have fakeclaims. This is all but a given for balance. Yes, this doesn't clear me. HOWEVER I AM NOT THE ONE USING IT TO TRY AND CLEAR MYSELF.
And, yes, I was the last via popcorn which means if I was scum without a fakeclaim I had the option to do anything I wanted. Which with an innocent on myself could have been a whole myriad of things that hadn't been claimed.
As for ‘betting heavy money’ I’ll wager with you the following since we actually can’t bet money –
When I die or the game ends and if I am not revealed as a Town aligned Weak Vig (not considering Miller) then you can choose any picture you want for my avatar for three months (acceptable under site rules, of course).
Likewise when you die or the game ends and if you are not revealed as a Town aligned Weak Vig I get to choose your Avatar for the same period.
Willing to put your avatar where you mouth is? I am.
Done. Choo choo buckaroo'.
Yes, because I think you are scum. The minute you went on the attack when I questioned your behavior in voting for CMAR sealed it for me. Zang and I both drew the same conclusion about the post in question. Yet you, who supposedly has the same role but comes up with tortured logic as to why you didn’t think the same, attack me as Scum with NO support at all. Scummy. The Innocent scan ties nicely with the Godfather role.
Are you arguing in a game with a Cop that it is not unlikely for there to be a Godfather scan resistant Mafia role?
Because that still isn't "dead on" no matter how many times you want to say it and it was unnecessary supposition.
If, at that point, CMAR had said what he said when he actually claimed (and go ahead and say those are the same thing) then I would have, in fact, removed my vote then as I did when they actually claimed.
And no, I haven't said there is or isn't a godfather. Again, that's not the issue - there sure could be to balance the miller OR just as easily there could not be because a false positive helps just as much as a false negative for the scum side of the equation.
Funny, you say this as if Cruelty was randomly rolling the dice and scanning. He scanned you because you found something about your play to be suspicious. So regardless of whatever probabilities existed he scanned you for a reason. Your Appeal to Statistics, yet another logical fallacy, is noted.
The result and the supposition your brother in arms is making whom you so valiantly picked up the torch for are the important parts here, still as the cop comes out with an innocent and you two have latched onto the godfather teat as though it was the last bastion of nourishment you'll ever see.
I don't care why (although, yes, I would like to know cruelties reasons for his two picks) I care about the result as a function of the whole.
If you're saying its a logical fallacy: why. Why is it? Are the statistics wrong?
The fact that if Yos hadn't been killed would have led into the beginning of the situation I detailed about the army of millers (which you, again, sure managed to not talk about) actually strengthens what I'm saying about the moonbeams TS is reaching for and you're playin' snipa with.
Back up the logic train for a second here and consider carefully the situation. Assuming we have two remaining scum (and if we have three things are much worse for Town),
A lynch, a Mafia kill and vig kill leaves 4 players. We are only in MYLO if we hit a Mafian with the lynch or vig kill. I’m town so unless we hit a Mafian with the lynch vigging me tonight ends the game in a 2 to 2 manner.
Likewise your no vig-kill only leaves us with an additional mislynch if we lynch Mafia tonight. Otherwise we are still in a LYLO situation at 3 to 2.
So we, as a Town, should be considering whatever moves we make under the assumption that incorrect ones lose the game for Town.
@Skeward – At this point I think you should be looking at either Darox or ooba as the viable lynch tonight, unless you want to lynch yourself.
@ooba and Darox – You need to weigh in with your thoughts on Vigging versus not and who the lynch should be today.
But I thought you were soooo cooool with shooting me or yourself earlier OHH NOES.
