Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I have nothing of importance to say.

Vote: Thor

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I have nothing of importance to say.

Vote: Thor

[Thor665]

No insights at all Cyber?

Is there a reason at this juncture not to 'no lynch'?

It should bring us closer to town win one way or the other.

[Thor665]

I have nothing of importance to say.

Vote: Thor

I understand you're apparently against explaining your votes - but I do think you should do so.

Please address my no lynch plan, please explain the vote on me, and if you're up to it go for the hat trick and comment on your hammer sans explanation yesterday.

[Thor665]

The site is really laggy this morning, isn't it? (apologies for triple post)

[Cyberbob]

No insights at all Cyber?

Not tonight, I need to get some sleep for work in the morning and I'd need to read back over people's interactions with charter to stand any chance at making up for the ridiculous calls I was making in the latter part of yesterday.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Please address my no lynch plan, please explain the vote on me, and if you're up to it go for the hat trick and comment on your hammer sans explanation yesterday.

I don't see any reason to no lynch: I already know all I need to know. Most likely result is no-lynch or my death. Neither helps us catch scum.

I'm voting for you because I think you're scum. Obviously. I decided Yesterday that Thor-charter was the most likely pairing. I'm not sure what you were expecting from me Today if not a Thorvote.

I didn't explain my hammer Yesterday because my vote made discussion irrelevant. Either I'd be wrong and the game would end straight away or I'd be right and it'd be obvious you're his partner.

[Thor665]

Why is it "obvious" that I am charter's partner?

How does a no lynch not help? If scum don't night kill then we obligate mod to make either us or scum do a kill which is at least a 50/50 that it helps town - if scum does NK then it leaves us a 1/3 chance of lynching scum as opposed to a 1/4.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Because I think Cyberbob and Michel are town while I think you're scum.

How does a no lynch not help? If scum don't night kill then we obligate mod to make either us or scum do a kill which is at least a 50/50 that it helps town - if scum does NK then it leaves us a 1/3 chance of lynching scum as opposed to a 1/4.

A cycle of no-lynches and no-kills would just lead to a draw. I'm not prepared to settle for one although I obviously understand that you are.

And no, the scum NKing someone doesn't up the chance of lynching scum from 1/3 to 1/4. We're not lynching at random. A nightkill doesn't narrow down the list of suspects here.

[Thor665]

Because I think Cyberbob and Michel are town while I think you're scum.

Evidence? (specifically for Cyberbob as town and me as scum paired with charter and Fate)

I fail to see how a night kill doesn't narrow the field of suspects. Could you expand on that - specifically, let's go with the argument that Cyberbob is town, how does a NK not help him narrow down who is or is not scum?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Evidence? (specifically for Cyberbob as town and me as scum paired with charter and Fate)

Gut, baby! (It is infallible like the pope! (In that it is right when I say it is. Papal infallibility is not as straightforward as you'd think.)) (There was also this quote from Cyberbob which didn't fit with him partnered with Fate in my estimation, but I can't be arsed to find it; it's in one of my earlier posts.)

I fail to see how a night kill doesn't narrow the field of suspects. Could you expand on that - specifically, let's go with the argument that Cyberbob is town, how does a NK not help him narrow down who is or is not scum?

Well, me dying would help Cyberbob in determining that you are the final remaining scum, sure, but that shouldn't be that hard anyway, really. Seems rather insignificant compared to the fact that my death would make it substantially easier for you to avoid the noose. Convincing Michel to go for Cyberbob seems like a much easier task than getting both Michel and Cyberbob to vote for me.

[Thor665]

Gut, baby!

I would ask you to re-examine your gut read then - it is wrong. Check with your liver and see how it feels.

Well, me dying would help Cyberbob in determining that you are the final remaining scum, sure, but that shouldn't be that hard anyway, really. Seems rather insignificant compared to the fact that my death would make it substantially easier for you to avoid the noose. Convincing Michel to go for Cyberbob seems like a much easier task than getting both Michel and Cyberbob to vote for me.

I thought my scum plan was to go for a draw via a no lynch and then not NKing anyone. Which plan do you think I'm angling for here?

Personally I'm left with the 50/50 of you and Cyber, so I'm looking to have a NK either clear me via death or make it clear which one of you is scum so we can map the actual scumbuddy back to charter and Fate.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

I would ask you to re-examine your gut read then - it is wrong. Check with your liver and see how it feels.

My liver is unresponsive.

I thought my scum plan was to go for a draw via a no lynch and then not NKing anyone. Which plan do you think I'm angling for here?

No. We wouldn't settle for a draw. I think you want a no-lynch so you can kill me.

Personally I'm left with the 50/50 of you and Cyber, so I'm looking to have a NK either clear me via death or make it clear which one of you is scum so we can map the actual scumbuddy back to charter and Fate.

I don't think anyone here is all too concerned with helping you "find scum".

[Thor665]

No. We wouldn't settle for a draw. I think you want a no-lynch so you can kill me.

::shrug:: Just trying to figure out what you think my master plan is, it keeps changing. So your current belief is that I want a no lynch so I can kill you and then convince Michel to vote Cyberbob (Michel who has openly stated he doesn't believe it's possible for Cyber and charter to be partners)?

My pancreas disagrees.

Vote: No lynch

I want to hear a legitimate reason we shouldn't no lynch, other then that I'm planning to stick with this vote as it clearly appears the best odds available for town.

Anyone voting with the Shovel would do town a world of good if they actually decided to try to explain why I am scum, I am (shock) not a big fan of the case on me and would at the very least like to hear it stated again so we can all remember how viable it is or is not (personally I think it's pretty thin)

[MichelSableheart]

SK nightkill is unsurprising, still unwilling to claim.

@SPS: what makes you so certain that you would be killed at night?

@Thor: we aren't lynching randomly. Not every nightkill is equal. If there is a player who you are convinced is town, and that player gets nightkilled, that doesn't help you in any way with determining the next day's lynch, it only removes the advice of the obvious town player. Or are you honestly saying that you consider all of us equally likely scum?

I agree that a nightkill of one of you three would help me determining who to lynch, and a nightkill of me would probably do the same for you, so it's not necessarily a bad idea. I'm mainly concerned that we may be forced to lynch eventually.

Mod: What happens if town continually votes No Lynch, and mafia continually refuses to kill?

I still believe it is not very likely for charter and cyberbob to be scum together. Especially their simultaneous attack on Fate during day 2, which made Fate a possible lynch, is unlikely to come from scumpartners.

I think SPS is more likely town, because of how CSL voted for his predecessor during day 1.

Through proces of elimination, I am inclined to believe Thor is scum.

I would really like to hear cyberbob's thoughts, and would like to consider the possibility of a no lynch some more.

[Col.Cathart]

Mod: What happens if town continually votes No Lynch, and mafia continually refuses to kill?

That would mean that no side really wants to win this game, and therefore it will end with a draw

[Thor665]

@Thor: we aren't lynching randomly. Not every nightkill is equal. If there is a player who you are convinced is town, and that player gets nightkilled, that doesn't help you in any way with determining the next day's lynch, it only removes the advice of the obvious town player. Or are you honestly saying that you consider all of us equally likely scum?

I think the best way to phrase it would be that I believe that no matter what the night kill is I feel I would 100% know who the scum is as a result of that night kill - presuming I'm reading everything correctly. (this also presumes I'm not the night kill, but I think I'm the obvious mislynch so I don't expect that to happen and if I am NKed I think that helps town as well)

Therefore I am strongly in favor of the no lynch because I believe it would allow me to definitely know who the scum is and then be able to hopefully make the needed connections of that scum to Fate/charter so that I could show the other remaining town player who the correct lynch is.

At the current moment, if a gun was put to my head, I could make a call on the scum but I feel it would be more of a coin flip as to whether I was right or not.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

::shrug:: Just trying to figure out what you think my master plan is, it keeps changing.

Nuh-uh.

So your current belief is that I want a no lynch so I can kill you and then convince Michel to vote Cyberbob (Michel who has openly stated he doesn't believe it's possible for Cyber and charter to be partners)?

Yes. I agree that the plan is not all that likely to succeed but that is only natural since it is simply very likely that we'll catch you.

My pancreas disagrees.

Your pancreas lies. It's a cesspool of filth.

I want to hear a legitimate reason we shouldn't no lynch, other then that I'm planning to stick with this vote as it clearly appears the best odds available for town.

Feel free to vote for no-lynch. It's the right move for you. But I'm opposed to any plan that reduces the chance that you'll get lynched.

@SPS: what makes you so certain that you would be killed at night?

Because it is the right move for Thor.

[Cyberbob]

I don't think a No Lynch would solve anything, scum will just kill SPS or Michel (being more confirmed town than anyone else) and we'll be in the exact same situation tomorrow.

I do tend to agree with Michel's process of elimination. I do also recall being somewhat suspicious of Thor earlier in the game regarding his interactions with Copper and some other matter that I've forgotten. I'd be happy with a Thor lynch.

[Thor665]

I don't think a No Lynch would solve anything, scum will just kill SPS or Michel (being more confirmed town than anyone else) and we'll be in the exact same situation tomorrow.

And whichever one scum killed at least you would then know with even more certainty that I'm scum - what's bad about that?

I do also recall being somewhat suspicious of Thor earlier in the game regarding his interactions with Copper and some other matter that I've forgotten. I'd be happy with a Thor lynch.

You thought Copper and I were scum buddies with each other, this later changed to Thorscum buddying Coppertown. I don't recall your other point against me off hand either - you seemed lukewarm about the Kerrigan interaction until you decided she was scum and thus I was cleared so I'm guessing now that she's cleared I'm back to being scummy for that interaction again.

Frankly I still think the case on me is weak and not there. I buddied Copper (y'know, probably one of the more townish looking players all game)? I was suspicious around Kerrigan (at least when we've decided Kerrigan now wasn't scum) and I didn't vote Fate in a timely manner?

I guess I also decided to bus Fate and now bus the Mafia roleblocker instead of pushing on Kerrigan in either case because...what?

I still want the people talking about lynching me to actually present the case of Thorscum.

I also know one of Michel's conclusions (the clearing of Cyber because of the Cyber+charter "bus" on Fate at the same time or the likelihood of scum not bussing TCC/Socrates/Shovel like they did) is wrong.

The charter + Cyber on Fate thing happened very quickly at the end of the day when everyone was calling for a stop to Kerrigan's wagon (I'll also note that my vote on Fate is apparently part of the Thor as scum case - so I'm not sure why Cyber's vote equates to a clearing) This logic needs to be reexamined especially since it's apparently about the only thing anyone is using to clear Cyber. Cyber also spent pretty much all of the last 1 and a half phases basically trying to dig a grave for Kerrigan without doing much scumhunting (and had charter's odd flips on him as having a scummy case to having a good case on Kerrigan)

Also, it is possible that scum was indeed just bussing TCC/Socrates/Shovel. CSL came in at a point when there was lots of pressure on TCC (who had dug a rather deep hole) and dropped a vote and basically went to visit lurk city after that. Meanwhile Fate's pressure on Socrates was centered around the odd way he replaced in (via choice) and also was shifted reasonably shortly over to Copper (with charter support). I'll also add Shovel's presence of charter on his scum listing (under Kerrigan and I though part of the more likely team) was overshadowed most of the day by him apparently wanting me as the lynch up until the 11th hour and a no explanation vote on charter after no real actual interaction with the slot that day.

I do not see why everyone else is suggesting it's as cut and dry as 'Thor is obv scum, and we need 'no lynch' like we need a spike in the head'

[MichelSableheart]

A nightkill of Thor would upset all my suspicions, a nightkill of cyberbob or SPS would eliminate a potential scum candidate, a nightkill of me would not be disastrous, and no nightkill at all would tell us that the mafiamember is happy with the situation as it is.

I don't want this game to end in a draw, so I'll definately vote for a lynch tomorrow. I do want to see what the mafia decides to do tonight, though.

Vote: No Lynch

[Cyberbob]

Really Michel? You'd rather vote in conjunction with your top suspect than simply lynch them here and now?

[Thor665]

Cyberbob - there are only two reasons to have an issue with Michel's vote.

1. You think he's making a poor decision - in which case you should be clearly trying to explain to him why strategically a 'no lynch' is a poor decision at this juncture in the game.

2. You think he's scummy - in which case you should be overtly pointing out how it's scummy.

Instead you just drop the "don't vote with Thor because he's your top suspect" card which doesn't actually affect Michel's stated reasons for voting 'no lynch'.

[Cyberbob]

When my opinion on the best course of action for the town coincides with the opinion of my biggest scumread I generally rethink my opinion very very hard (and if I still want to press ahead with it I sure as hell outline why I believe in it so much that I'm willing to align with my strongest suspect in order to pursue it).

[Thor665]

Why do you specifically think a 'no lynch' will hurt town at this point in the game?