Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

[Cyberbob]

Simple: because you want it.

[Thor665]

I'm really at a loss with you and the Shovel. One of you is shutting down because you're scum and I'm the mislynch and the other one is shutting down because they're town and they're so certain they're right.

Cyberbob, considering yesterday and your efforts on the Kerrigan wagon does it not seem reasonable to consider the possibility you might be wrong again? Would not a no lynch help you know whether or not you are correct? Or do you think the Kerrigan situation was dramatically different then this one (and please explain how)

Also, what's the case for Thorscum? Maybe if you say it again (first time?) you'll sell Michel on it and then be able to get him to vote me because he'll be as sure as you.

Michel, the one player not voting me, is the only player who has actually posted something resembling a case for Thorscum - that doesn't concern either of you other guys?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Are you sure you want to no-lynch, Michel? I've given my argument against it (i.e. that it just allows Thor to kill off his biggest detractor), so if that doesn't convince you, then I don't see any reason to drag this Day out any longer as you can force a no-lynch anyway.

As long as you lynch Thor when/if I die.

[Thor665]

(i.e. that it just allows Thor to kill off his biggest detractor)

Out of curiosity why do you feel you're the bigger detractor of me then Cyberbob. Neither of you have presented a case on me yet (though I guess Cyberbob mentioned the buddying with Copper)

You've basically gone "Thor is scum, so sayeth my gut."

Cyberbob has effectively done the same thing. It's not like either of you are being proactive in trying to convince Michel to lynch me other then both saying you think I'm the most obvious scum. What makes you more of a threat to me then Cyberbob?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

You may have a point; I wasn't expecting Cyberbob to be so obviously anti-Thor as he has been Today. But I'm pretty sure you need me dead to win and I don't know whether I can say the same thing about Cyberbob.

[Cyberbob]

I'm anti-Thor because he's the only one left that I have much of a reason to be suspicious of. As with my reasoning for being anti-No Lynch, it's quite simple.

[MichelSableheart]

Yes, I am certain that I want a no lynch. I can't think of a scenario where it would immediately give the win to scum, so I'm not very affraid of the fact that Thor wants a no lynch. Similary, I'm not affraid of Thor taking out his biggest detractor, because doing so would make him far more obviously scum.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Okay.

As long as you lynch Thor when/if I die.

Unvote, vote: no lynch

[Thor665]

The interesting thing from my perspective is that it's looking more and more likely that Pie was right in all his predictions prior to his lynch.

[Col.Cathart]

Votecount 5.1 (Final

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.

Let me know, if I made any mistakes.

No Lynch (3):

Thor665, MichelSableheart, Steam-Powered Shovel

not voting (1):

Cyberbob

[Col.Cathart]

Sorry for brief flavor, but I'm really tired right now. After studies and work, I barely have time and strength for anything

Still not sure what may happen if they'll decide to lynch today, the workers of Smiths&Catharts, decided to abstain from lynch. What did they hoped for? What crossed their minds? And what are Bazzani's people going to do now?

Stay tuned for the next episode of Troubles at Smiths&Catharts...

----------------

Day 5 ends with no lynch.

It's now night 5. It will end on

Saturday, July 5th at 3:00 AM

(countdown later, after I'll get some sleep).

I many end the day earlier, if I'll get all the night actions. Stay tuned!

[Col.Cathart]

A sigh of relief came out from Cathart's mouth, when he noticed that all 4 remaining people gathered once again in the conference room. That mean no deaths of the innocent. And that was a good thing. But that also meant there's still scum left here as well, and the company had to get rid of him before it was too late.

"As you can see,

No one died last night

. That's a good thing but still didn't solve our problem. I know you are already tired of seeing my face, so I'll keep it brief...

...Good luck, and Godspeed. Cathart out"

------------------------------------------

No one died last night.

It's now

Day 6

, and it will end on

Saturday, June 19th at 2 PM GMT + 1

(there will be countdown here soon)

[Col.Cathart]

Votecount 6.0

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.

Let me know, if I made any mistakes.

not voting (4):

Cyberbob, Thor665, MichelSableheart, Steam-Powered Shovel

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Not quite what I expected, but it doesn't really change anything.

Vote: Thor

[Thor665]

@SPS - is your case on me any more then gut? If it's just gut how do you plan to convince Michel he should vote for me? Ad Naseum isn't the most convincing method in existence last I checked.

@Cyberbob This is still something I want answered

@Whichever of you is scum - You're a Wussy McWussstein.

[MichelSableheart]

@SPS: you were convinced that you would die during the night, because it would be the right move for Thor. You didn't die during the night, though. Why didn't Thor sent in a kill?

@Thor: you wanted a No Lynch. What does the No Kill tell you?

I'm going to write down my current thoughts now, I'll give them once both these questions have been answered.

[Thor665]

@Michel - that the last scum is a wuss.

In a more serious vein - I would say the only verifiable truth for all of us is that the last scum doesn't have a double kill ability.

From my perspective the obvious answer is that scum Shovel/Cyber is content with the belief I will be mislynch since they already have one townie in 'uber kill Thor' mentality and they are left just hoping you'll follow through with your belief of me as obvious remaining scumbuddy due to your ruling out of the other two. Even if you don't there's still a coin flip if I manage to convince you to lynch someone else. If I convince you of the scum then the uber kill Thor townie will probably not move resulting in another no lynch, and if I convince you of the remaining town player as scum then the real scum can hop on the other mislynch quite comfortably for his win.

This, of course, spirals into all sorts of WIFOM for various reasons.

I would like to claim that the no kill follows your previously expressed belief about scum being happy with the situation. But it really offers no tangible proof that I am not scum and is, at best, a null tell to my alignment. I will at least hubristically cling to the idea that scum is scared I am not going to be an easy mislycnh anymore and thus wants to keep the field open for other possible mislynches due to certain problems you are causing them.

It is an equal null tell for Cyber and Shovel's alignment, since I know one of them is scum neither of them would desire to kill a tunnel visioned townie in order to help the mislynch know who the real scum is. So it's a functional play for either of them.

The only alignment I believe it verifies is your own, since you're the only player that would have nothing to lose from performing an actual kill. Of course, if you're scum you won about two phases ago so this verification isn't worth much, but at least it rules out any lingering Xanatos Gambit type thoughts I might have had.

I'll stop before I ramble on too much (too late) but I suppose my real answer is the No Lynch shows you're not scum and that the scum wants us to either mislynch me or deal with the coin flip (that is a coin flip with a possible no lynch ending) presuming I can talk people out of the concept that I am scum.

If I missed any aspects you want me to offer an opinion on let me know.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

@SPS: you were convinced that you would die during the night, because it would be the right move for Thor. You didn't die during the night, though. Why didn't Thor sent in a kill?

Desperation. As yesterday progressed, it became increasingly clear that we all agreed Thor was the lynch. I don't think it was the right move for Thor regardless, but I've disagreed with people on more fundamental issues; Thor could well have felt that he needed to no-kill to shake things up a bit.

[MichelSableheart]

Ok, as promised, my thoughts (everything above the line written before reading the replies):

First of all, Cyberbob is town. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to No Kill. He could kill me, and SPS would be virtually guaranteed to vote Thor. Or he could kill SPS, and he would have little to no trouble convincing me to vote Thor. A No Kill is either done by someone who is happy to settle for a draw, or someone who believes his best chance of winning is forcing the town to lynch. Cyberbob doesn't fit either of those descriptions.

The No Kill makes me far less suspicious of Thor. Thor knows that I would be unwilling to No Lynch again (I've made sure to make that clear). By No Killing, he must convince two players to follow his vote to a mislynch, rather then one. Killing Cyberbob and hoping to convince me to vote SPS would probably have been his safest bet.

On the other hand, a No Kill makes perfect sense from the point of view of SPS. Both me and Cyberbob are rather uncertain quantities, and by killing one of us, he risks Thor being able to convince the other. OTOH, we both have expressed a certain willingness to lynch Thor, and I have announced that I won't be willing to No Lynch again, so by No Killing, he would feel a Thor lynch would be certain.

Regarding the questions I asked:

I asked Thor what he has learned from the No Kill. If Thor is mafia, he knew a No Kill would come, and he knew he would have to come up with a very good story to get a mislynch today. If Thor is mafia, I'm expecting a very strong explanation why one of the other players No Killed. OTOH, if he is town, the No Kill will be more of a surprise to him, and I expect his answer to show far less conviction.

I asked SPS why Thor No Killed. If SPS is mafia, he made the No Kill believing that getting a mislynch on Thor would be a piece of cake. It is unlikely that he has thought about why Thor would actually No Kill. If SPS is mafia, I'm expecting a reply along the lines of "how should I know?". OTOH, if SPS is town, he would be less certain of his read and more likely to doubt. I expect him to put a bit more thought into the question if that is the case.

Some other remarks:
Just noticed that the deadline had been put back a week just before CSL voted TCC. That makes his vote far less likely to be made in hope of getting an easy mislynch.
Voting Charter before SPS did is definately a point in Thor's favour.

---

Reading the answers, Thor's reply feels exactly what I expect from town. SPS' answer is better then I expected, though.

I have a feeling that SPS is the last remaining scum, but I'm far from certain. I am unwilling to No Lynch today, so if Cyberbob has a strong preference for lynching Thor, I'll switch.

Vote: Steam-Powered Shovel

[Thor665]

Scumhunting from the concept of preparedness? Has that actually worked for you in the past?

As far as Shovel scum and Cyber town? That's certainly possible from my perspective. I know most of my strong Cyber as town vibes actually came from the Zorblag era but they were there enough to make me want to vote charter first. I'm just miffed because my Cyber clearing feels more like gut to me while I feel the logic of the Shovel clearing is actually smoother. I'll probably re look over the evidence later tonight and see if I get a better feel for it as I'm not sure if I 100% follow the concept Michel is using to clear Cyber.

@Cyber - Michel's post is very interesting, I'd still like your response to 1464.

@Shovel - same thing.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Ugh. Did Thor really get you with his lame no-kill, Michel? You're really undermining my position that killing me was the right move here.

The No Kill makes me far less suspicious of Thor. Thor knows that I would be unwilling to No Lynch again (I've made sure to make that clear). By No Killing, he must convince two players to follow his vote to a mislynch, rather then one. Killing Cyberbob and hoping to convince me to vote SPS would probably have been his safest bet.

He only needs to convince one person to keep him alive. Don't you think Thorscum would settle for a draw (or at least would have settled prior to your last post)?

On the other hand, a No Kill makes perfect sense from the point of view of SPS. Both me and Cyberbob are rather uncertain quantities, and by killing one of us, he risks Thor being able to convince the other. OTOH, we both have expressed a certain willingness to lynch Thor, and I have announced that I won't be willing to No Lynch again, so by No Killing, he would feel a Thor lynch would be certain.

There are several things wrong with this:
1) a no-kill breaks the narrative. It makes people stop and reconsider their position. Considering how anti-Thor Cyberbob was looking at the end of Yesterday, a Cyberbobkill wouldn't have. That's what I would've done if I'd been scum in this situation.
2) If I'm scum, I definitely want to win this. That means getting both of you on my side against Thor. Having both of you alive means I risk Thor convincing either of you for the draw and thus makes the Thorlynch less certain.

[Thor665]

SPS - do you agree with Michel's reason to clear Cyberbob? Why/why not?

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

It's a reasonable argument, sure, although not conclusive in of itself.

What confuses me is the asymmetry which has suddenly appeared between Cyberbob and me. I get the feeling Cyberbob and I were in a pretty similar situation going into the Night: both very anti-Thor and Michel seemed to think we were town. I was comparatively more anti-Thor, but not excessively so. Yet the no-kill clears Cyberbob and implicates me.

[Thor665]

The asymmetrical outlier is, presuming I grok Michel's logic correctly, that you were so gung-ho to lynch me that Cyberbob could happily NK Michel and have you help lynch me and, I suppose, with your demands that my NK would obviously target you that scum Cyberbob would have done so as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Frankly I'm not sure I buy the logic either as a clearing of Cyberbob nor as an indemnification of you and am generally sticking to the null read on it.

Why do you think the argument is reasonable?

[MichelSableheart]

Scumhunting from the concept of preparedness? Has that actually worked for you in the past?

Scumhunting based on different reactions has for me, yes.

@SPS: you don't have to worry about this game ending in a draw. My reads are somewhere between 40-60 and 48-52. If Cyberbob wants to stick to a Thor lynch, I'll definately switch over, as said before.

1) a no-kill breaks the narrative. It makes people stop and reconsider their position. Considering how anti-Thor Cyberbob was looking at the end of Yesterday, a Cyberbobkill wouldn't have. That's what I would've done if I'd been scum in this situation.

I'm a bit biased, of course, but this reply misjudges to what extend I was No Lynching for info yesterday. I definately would have stopped and thought if Cyberbob had been killed.

2) If I'm scum, I definitely want to win this. That means getting both of you on my side against Thor. Having both of you alive means I risk Thor convincing either of you for the draw and thus makes the Thorlynch less certain.

I don't want this game to end in a draw, so I'll definately vote for a lynch tomorrow. I do want to see what the mafia decides to do tonight, though.

What part of "I don't want this game to end in a draw" don't you understand? Convincing me would not have been enough for Thor.

@SPS: I think you WERE excessively more anti-Thor then Cyberbob. Reading his posts, the feeling I get is "I'm happy with a Thor lynch because I don't really suspect anyone else" whereas you read "It's completely obvious that Thor is scum". That's rather a big difference there.