Mini 934 - Troubles at Smiths&Catharts (Game Over!)

[Cyberbob]

Sorry about the slight absence... my weekend activity is usually

Thor: As far as I'm concerned your "u were wrong once wat if ur wrong agan!!" line isn't much more than a cheap shot aimed at spoiling my confidence and increasing indecision. Not a very good way to convince people that you aren't scum to be honest.

I haven't made up my mind about the no-kill last night yet. A very strong part of me is inclined to dismiss the lot of it as WIFOM but on the other hand I don't like how Thor is trying to downplay its significance.

Then there's the whole SPS/Michel issue. Gonna need some time to process this.

[Cyberbob]

First line should read as follows:

"Sorry about the slight absence... my weekend activity is usually lower than during the week (perversely) due to the timing of my work shifts."

[Thor665]

Thor: As far as I'm concerned your "u were wrong once wat if ur wrong agan!!" line isn't much more than a cheap shot aimed at spoiling my confidence and increasing indecision. Not a very good way to convince people that you aren't scum to be honest.

You're addressing my reasoning for wanting a no lynch yesterday and acting as though I was using it as logic for why I'm not scum. You are either misunderstanding my logic or misrepresenting it. I wanted you to consider the possibility you were wrong so as to favor a no lynch in order for you to learn more information - I never claimed the possibility you were wrong should suggest Thor isn't scum.

If you want me to defend why I am not scum then please tell me why I am scum. Asking me to defend when I actually haven't been clearly accused leaves me in a position where I am unable to do so.

I have repeatedly voiced my issues with what I believe the case against me is - what do you think of my points there?

I have repeatedly asked for a case to be presented against me - why have you not?

[Thor665]

I haven't made up my mind about the no-kill last night yet. A very strong part of me is inclined to dismiss the lot of it as WIFOM but on the other hand I don't like how Thor is trying to downplay its significance.

I don't believe I have - I offered what were my thoughts on what information it gave us. If you disagree then shouldn't you explain how my conclusions were wrong?

You quite literally here just said you were considering dismissing it as WIFOM, which from your perspective has to be a functional town decision...yet apparently it's scummy of me to decide not much information was provided from the no kill??? <--extra question marks because of confusion as to why my action was questionable.

If me "downplaying" the information I feel it provides is bad, then why is you saying you were about to dismiss it as WIFOM not bad?

[MichelSableheart]

Take your time, Cyberbob, and please inform me of any conclusions you reach.

[Col.Cathart]

Votecount 6.1

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.

Let me know, if I made any mistakes.

Thor665 (1):

Steam-Powered Shovel

Steam-Powered Shovel (1):

MichelSableheart

not voting (2): Cyberbob, Thor665

[Thor665]

First of all, Cyberbob is town. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever for him to No Kill. [snip] he could kill SPS, and he would have little to no trouble convincing me to vote Thor.

[snip]

No Kill makes perfect sense from the point of view of SPS. Both me and Cyberbob are rather uncertain quantities, and by killing one of us, he risks Thor being able to convince the other.

This boils down to the heart of my issue with your Cyberbob clearing.

For Cyberbob it would make perfect sense to lynch SPS because you [Michel] would be easy to convince to vote Thor.

For SPS it is an uncertain quantity and if he kills Cyberbob it is risky that I [Thor] will manage to convince Michel not to vote me.

I really don't see why in SPS's case Michel is easy to pull away from a Thor vote and in Cyberbob's case Michel is a relatively easy Thor vote.

[MichelSableheart]

This boils down to the heart of my issue with your Cyberbob clearing.

For Cyberbob it would make perfect sense to lynch SPS because you [Michel] would be easy to convince to vote Thor.

For SPS it is an uncertain quantity and if he kills Cyberbob it is risky that I [Thor] will manage to convince Michel not to vote me.

I really don't see why in SPS's case Michel is easy to pull away from a Thor vote and in Cyberbob's case Michel is a relatively easy Thor vote.

There are three reasons for this difference.

The first reason is something I stated on the day we lynched Charter.

Conclusions:

I already was convinced SK is town.

At most one out of charter & Cyberbob is scum.
At least one out of charter & Cyberbob is scum.

Therefore, one out of Thor/SPS is scum.
charter is far more suspicions then Cyberbob.
SPS is far more likely town then Thor.
Therefore, the scumteam is charter/Thor.

Thor's potential strategy for tomorrow seems rather simple: get a lynch on Cyberbob. If Thor is roleblocker, he can keep SK (who is convinced of a charter - cyberbob pairing) alive. That should eventually bring him in a 3 player endgame which he could win.

The suspicion on charter is stronger, and the suspicion on Thor weaker then before I started my reread.

If you look at my analysis of the situation there, I first narrow my suspicions down to one of charter/cyberbob and one of thor/SPS, and only afterwards narrow it down within those groups. Following this reasoning, if I am going to change my mind on lynching Thor, it was far more likely that I would switch to voting SPS then to voting Cyberbob.

The second reason is how likely each kill is made by you. Killing SPS would mean taking out your biggest attacker. Cyberbob sounded far less convinced when he voted you yesterday. It therefore makes more sense for you to kill SPS then to kill Cyberbob. This means that if SPS is killed, that kill is more likely to be made by you, which in turn means that I am more likely to vote you. OTOH, if Cyberbob is killed, that is a far weaker tell for you being scum, meaning I would be more likely to change my mind.

The final reason is post 1456:

Similary, I'm not affraid of Thor taking out his biggest detractor, because doing so would make him far more obviously scum.

This statement was made in a post where I adressed the arguments against a No Lynch. This was made in response to SPS' concerns that he would be nightkilled, fearing that this wouldn't give us any info at all. I quite literally say that I would be far more suspicious of Thor if SPS dies, whereas I make no such statements about a Cyberbob nightkill.

To summarize: after an SPS nightkill, I would be far more likely to vote Thor then after Cyberbob was killed.

[Thor665]

How do you define the difference between charter Cyber teaming on Fate as opposed to say charter Fate teaming on Copper - is it simply you don't think scum tend to vote together that quickly, or rather that you think they wouldn't do it to a scumbuddy?

[Cyberbob]

So I went away and tossed some things around in my head.

The one concrete thing that can be taken out of that no-kill was, as SPS mentioned, that it would have been done to promote uncertainty amongst the town (any kill would have given the remaining players some amount of information about the setup that is presently unavailable).

Who do we know that has been trying to promote uncertainty today? Thor.

I thought about Michel's case against SPS for awhile and if you ignore the WIFOM it works well enough I suppose, but looking at posts made today it becomes abundantly clear that Thor is a fair bit more interested in furthering the same sort of interests that motivated the no-kill last night.

One thing that does actually stand out to me which is sort of worrying:

Reading the answers, Thor's reply feels exactly what I expect from town. SPS' answer is better then I expected, though.

I have a feeling that SPS is the last remaining scum, but I'm far from certain. I am unwilling to No Lynch today, so if Cyberbob has a strong preference for lynching Thor, I'll switch.

This is some serious playing of both sides of the fence. You go from "Thor's reply feels exactly what I expect from town" to "I have a feeling that SPS is the last remaining scum, but I'm far from certain" and then go on even further to say that you'd be willing to lynch Thor.

Have you claimed your full role yet Michel? I forgot.

[Thor665]

Who do we know that has been trying to promote uncertainty today? Thor.

::facepalm::

I've only been trying to "promote uncertainty" insomuch as I'm still not sure as to who between you and the Shovel I think is scum. Needless to say I'm not much of a fan of the Thorscum case everyone else seems excited about, so my lack of interest in the current wagon hardly seems a relevant scumtell since whether or not I am town or scum I would be rather unlikely to support a lynch of myself at this stage.

Also, you didn't respond to my questions from the last time I responded to you - why is that?

[MichelSableheart]

How do you define the difference between charter Cyber teaming on Fate as opposed to say charter Fate teaming on Copper - is it simply you don't think scum tend to vote together that quickly, or rather that you think they wouldn't do it to a scumbuddy?

I don't think they would do it to a scumbuddy. If you look at the vote count when they had both voted, you'll see that by voting Fate, Cyberbob created a rather even distribution of votes. Shortly afterwards, SK votes Fate, after which me and copper switch to voting Fate because we don't want to see an SK lynch. If Cyberbob voted either SK or Pie, the Fate wagon wouldn't have been strong enough for me to turn it into a lynch.

This is some serious playing of both sides of the fence. You go from "Thor's reply feels exactly what I expect from town" to "I have a feeling that SPS is the last remaining scum, but I'm far from certain" and then go on even further to say that you'd be willing to lynch Thor.

the reason is that I am far from certain. Before last night, I was extremely suspicious of Thor, and only mildy suspicious of SPS. The No Kill and resulting discussion made me believe SPS is more likely to be scum then Thor, but not nearly to the extend that I'm willing to clear Thor as town. If we No Lynch again, scum can No Kill again for the draw. I don't want that to happen. If you decide to vote Thor, the only way a lynch could happen is if I switch my vote to Thor. Because I still think there is a significant chance of Thor being scum, I would be willing to do so.

Have you claimed your full role yet Michel? I forgot.

I haven't yet fully claimed, and I would prefer not to.

[Cyberbob]

Is there some reason why you don't want to claim your role that even being in LYLO isn't sufficient to overcome?

[Cyberbob]

Also, you didn't respond to my questions from the last time I responded to you - why is that?

Didn't feel like it. Still don't; perhaps later tonight.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

To summarize: after an SPS nightkill, I would be far more likely to vote Thor then after Cyberbob was killed.

While I don't doubt that this is true, I have to question to what extent a hypothetical Shovelscum would've been aware of it.

Cyberbob, do you really think Michel would've voted for me if he were scum? His vote for me eliminated any lingering doubts I had on that front.

[MichelSableheart]

Is there some reason why you don't want to claim your role that even being in LYLO isn't sufficient to overcome?

Why the continued pressure? I would prefer not to claim. If there is information on my role that I want you to know, I'll tell you.

I won't be able to log on to the forums tomorrow.

[Cyberbob]

You're addressing my reasoning for wanting a no lynch yesterday and acting as though I was using it as logic for why I'm not scum. You are either misunderstanding my logic or misrepresenting it. I wanted you to consider the possibility you were wrong so as to favor a no lynch in order for you to learn more information - I never claimed the possibility you were wrong should suggest Thor isn't scum.

Pull the other leg, it's got bells on it. You clearly tried to draw a link between my accusations against SK and those against you.

If you want me to defend why I am not scum then please tell me why I am scum. Asking me to defend when I actually haven't been clearly accused leaves me in a position where I am unable to do so.

Oh well.

I have repeatedly voiced my issues with what I believe the case against me is - what do you think of my points there?

Bad.

I have repeatedly asked for a case to be presented against me - why have you not?

I'm lazy and a process of elimination works just fine.

I don't believe I have - I offered what were my thoughts on what information it gave us. If you disagree then shouldn't you explain how my conclusions were wrong?

Why?

You quite literally here just said you were considering dismissing it as WIFOM, which from your perspective has to be a functional town decision...yet apparently it's scummy of me to decide not much information was provided from the no kill??? <--extra question marks because of confusion as to why my action was questionable.

I'm operating under the assumption that you have some kind of a motivation for the things that you're saying (you do have a win condition right?); given that I think you are likely to be scum I am less likely to rush into a situation where I'm agreeing with you.

I didn't say you were scummy for deciding not much information was there, by the way - I said I hadn't made up my mind yet and that I "didn't like" what you were saying. There is in fact a difference.

If me "downplaying" the information I feel it provides is bad, then why is you saying you were about to dismiss it as WIFOM not bad?

See above. I wasn't casting suspicion on you, I was taking more time to think about it because my pre-existing suspicion of you made me more cautious about rushing into forming an opinion that agreed with you.

Cyberbob, do you really think Michel would've voted for me if he were scum? His vote for me eliminated any lingering doubts I had on that front.

So what you're saying is that Michel would have been more likely to just push for a relatively easier Thor lynch if he was scum? Yeah, I can buy that I suppose. There's no real reason for scum to make a gambit like that in lylo when they don't have to worry about reprisal on future days for any shadiness in achieving the mislynch.

Why the continued pressure? I would prefer not to claim. If there is information on my role that I want you to know, I'll tell you.

I just can't think of very many good reasons why you wouldn't claim on what is pretty much guaranteed to be the last day of play in the game is all. But hey. I can always kick myself later if you turn out to be scum.

Vote: Thor

[Thor665]

If you want me to defend why I am not scum then please tell me why I am scum. Asking me to defend when I actually haven't been clearly accused leaves me in a position where I am unable to do so.

Oh well.

Oh well? So you don't feel it's worth saying why I am scum when you're deciding to lynch me? Either you are town who is being too lazy for town's own good or you are scum managing to skate by because the other town (Shovel) is being lazy. Whichever of you is town frustrates me greatly.

I have repeatedly voiced my issues with what I believe the case against me is - what do you think of my points there?

Bad.

I'm looking for a functional rebuttal of my reasons Thor is town. I'm not seeing it.

I'm lazy and a process of elimination works just fine.

Could you explain the process of elimination you're using? The only one I've seen is Michel's and he's actually leaning Shovel or Thor currently. If you're just going to follow the leader on that one shouldn't you address the leader's new thoughts and why you disagree with them?

I don't believe I have - I offered what were my thoughts on what information it gave us. If you disagree then shouldn't you explain how my conclusions were wrong?

Why?

Because if you can't say why my conclusions were wrong I don't know how you can imply a bad vibe from me saying them...saying then after I was ASKED for my opinion on them.

I didn't say you were scummy for deciding not much information was there, by the way - I said I hadn't made up my mind yet and that I "didn't like" what you were saying. There is in fact a difference.

Why don't you like what I said if it wasn't scummy? If it's a null read then why dislike it? If it's a town read then why dislike it?
I'll also note again - I was asked to give my opinion on the NK.

[Thor665]

I feel like beating my head against a wall at the moment. Why is it so difficult to get anyone to say why I am scum?

Seriously. Doesn't that concern anyone else? It concerns the living bejeezus out of me.

Cyber is doing the same sort of shutdown we saw during the Kerrigan lynch attempt. I'm not sure if that's his scummy 'lower my head and push through the mislych' behavior or if he's just stubborn contentedly tunneling town. I guess the best thing I can say in his defense is that he didn't hop all over Michel's proposed "who should I lynch" offer right away, but that may just be caution on his part.

Shovel is...ugh. I wish I'd had more time to play with him. A lot of his early reads were meh and the juggling act he performed when Kerrigan and I were pressing him was odd to watch (Kerrigan is most scummy but Thor/Cyber is the most likely scum pair, ect. ect.) and seemed to change every time we asked him about it. I also will admit I used some of his suspicion of charter to help me make my final choice that day, as I didn't like how charter was his 2nd suspect (or suspect paired on most likely scumpair, or whatever) and yet he never pressed charter really at all.

Since then he's also pretty much shut down, which is different from how he acted around the Kerrigan/charter lynch.

I'm personally still left at an impasse as to which of them is scum. My personal preference is probably Cyberbob since I agree with a lot of Pie's reads at the time of his lynch and have felt that Cyber has been an odd cheerleader of late (I also don't like how after the charter lynch Cyber said he was going to be more careful because of all his errors that day...and then it's right onto tunneling Thor and barely discussing his reads). Also, I personally feel the reason to clear Shovel (the push on TCC and then later Socrates) makes more intrinsic sense.

If we're going to lynch me I'd like to at least force somebody to say *why I'm scum* before we do. The case is flawed and I want a chance to point out the flaw but until I see the case I can't do that.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

A lot of his early reads were meh and the juggling act he performed when Kerrigan and I were pressing him was odd to watch (Kerrigan is most scummy but Thor/Cyber is the most likely scum pair, ect. ect.) and seemed to change every time we asked him about it.

Unless you're implying that it actually did chance (it did not)or just want to discredit me, I don't see why you'd bring it up like this.

I also will admit I used some of his suspicion of charter to help me make my final choice that day, as I didn't like how charter was his 2nd suspect (or suspect paired on most likely scumpair, or whatever) and yet he never pressed charter really at all.

I didn't do a whole lot of pressing yesterday. I was actually waiting to see who you'd vote for most of yesterday, just fyi.

[Thor665]

Unless you're implying that it actually did chance* (it did not)or just want to discredit me, I don't see why you'd bring it up like this.

*change - I presume.

I personally am not even sure if it changed or didn't, because you kept using new metrics to present your suspicions every time you presented them. I specifically asked you about this that day on at least one occasion while trying to figure out what your suspicions were and I know Kerrigan did at least once as well, so I can't imagine that you thought you were being clear - at least for us.

Also, why wouldn't I bring this up? I think it's scummy and I think either you or Cyberbob are scum and want to have conversation about that since apparently it's painful to discuss why I'm scum.

I didn't do a whole lot of pressing yesterday. I was actually waiting to see who you'd vote for most of yesterday, just fyi.

And I voted charter and then you wanted me to say who I'd vote for the next day and I wouldn't tell you and then you hammered charter. I didn't understand your logic then and I don't understand it now. If I'd voted Kerrigan would it have changed your actions any?

If so, how?
If not, then why wait?

[Thor665]

Also, another question;

@Shovel - why do you consider Cyberbob town? Do you consider his current actions pro town, why/why not?

@Cyberbob - why do you consider Shovel town? Do you consider his current actions pro town, why/why not?

[Cyberbob]

I was wondering how long it would take for you to finally get over that line into OMGUS territory, Thor.

[MichelSableheart]

@Cyberbob, a check to make sure: Does your vote on Thor mean that you are not interested in lynching SPS today?

[Col.Cathart]

Bump for the top of the page votecount.