Mini 985:Madness at Night: Game over

[Hayker]

Deadline extension granted. Will do votecount when I get back from my other exam. Just checking inbetween.

[AlmasterGM]

Do not buy gunsmith + cop = unlikely. Gunsmith + cop = relatively logical; both have guns, so its a watered down investigative role.

I still want to lynch llama. We can give SSBF one chance to deliver, lynch him, and then see what happens. Nothing is lost by letting him live a single more day.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

WTF are you doing? Are you even at L-1? Are you even going to be lynched? This claim reeks of fake.

The reason I claimed is because of two reasons:
1. I am (Or was) one of the most popular lynch candidate.
2. Deadline was very close, so the only option I had was to claim now or face death. You should know what happen in Mini 955 when I claimed Vanilla Townie instead of Town Cop.

If it is, how do you get so lucky to do it two days in a row, and I have never done it.

Would you mind clarifying that question up? I'm not really understanding it. The best I get out of it is "How did you manage to get a cop role twice in a row while I have never received one?"

ssbf - why did you claim early?

I was the most popular bandwagon at the time with four votes. A more important reason is because deadline was approaching (Only two days before the deadline extension). I two choices:
1. Keep my mouth shut and only claim Vanilla Town, thus getting lynched and flipping Town Cop again.
2. Claim honestly by claiming Cop.

@hiphop: I promised an analysis before the end of the Day (Day 1). Even thought I'm late by your deadline, I am now about to work on my analysis. It will be up by the end of today (Real time).

[AlmasterGM]

What do you have to say about the gunsmith claim?

[podium123456]

The chances of a gunsmith AND a cop both being in the game are low. I'd say nill but for the miller claim as well; that could be a red herring.

yes, its an odd (tee hee) scenario. it doesnt make sense to have a gunsmith and miller only because an investigation of the miller would never occur, and thats a huge part of that role. town cop and miller only makes sense. town cop and gunsmith seems unlikely, but possible i suppose. same with all 3 existing... unlikely, but possible.

so, yes, if ssbf is lying i would say nopoint is as well. but that seems outlandish for 2 scum to fake claim on d1. is charter lying? i thought his reaction was genuine. do we have all 3?

spyrex what were you thinking? that we have all 3? or that one (or more) are lying?

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

@AlmasterGM: I read on the Wiki and it said that a Gunsmith investigate if they have a gun, not detecting alignments. Not all roles that has a gun is a scum. For example. my Cop role. If Charter were to investigate me, I guarateen you the result will be that I have a gun.

As for my opinion, I believe it for now. That may change depending on if his investigation is true or not. Therefore, I agree with hiphop in where Charter should investigate nopointinactingup.

Back to making my analysis. Currently on page 3. Once I finish reading the thread, I'll take notes of scum tells, ISO everyone, type out my opinion on everyone, and then post it.

[SpyreX]

Lets look at a few things:

1.) This is a mini.
2.) We have a death miller claim.
3.) We have a cop claim.
4.) We have a gunsmith claim.

Now, there's three common scenarios for a mini: 9:3, 8:2:2, 8/9:3/2:1

IF all three of these are true, I'd have to believe its an 8:2:2 or 8/9:2/3:1 - the big reason, and the issue I have with dual investigative roles in a mini like this and one reason why I lean REAL hard on a liar, is that there's an inherent imbalance if its 9:3 (either the roles are watered down to be worthless OR its absolutely weighted towards a town-win).

So, looking at the two options an SK could make sense: if it has an inherent protection from one, or both, roles.

Two mafia teams gets a bit weirder: You could have a standard godfather on one side and the other protected via gunsmith. Of course, this means that the scum-balance is directly against these roles which means other roles are hard to deal with (the death miller claim being a negative weight which makes 2/2 scum PR's VERY hard to swallow).

Now, lets add the miller into the mix. From what is said (and if this is wrong clarify) he'd investigate scum (which is a cop, not a gunsmith result) and flip scum. This false positive in conjunction with the false negatives above in either scenario equals a giant mess of WOOSH which adds a huge element of swing.

Add into this the pushing for charter to investigate the miller (note: not asking for clarification on how is millering works) is a huge teaparty that really reeks of cop-lying.

So, in short:

Two investigative roles in a mini doesn't make a lot of sense.
The actions of one of these investigative roles is REAL suspect.

Dingle, dangle.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

Reading update; I was at a neighbor's house playing Upward (A board game similar to Scrabble, but with a few twist). It was pretty fun, but it lasted about one hour and a half. No computer access during the time. However, I have completely finished reading the thread and started to ISO people (Currently on my first person, llamaeatataco). So yeah, my analysis is still coming.

Also, if you have any questions during my analysis, ask now. I will either make a small post answering it or incorperate it into my analysis.

@SpyreX: Your last post was good and I will admit that, however, one flaw of that post is that you forgot to take into account that there are eleven players in the game. Therefore, a two Mafia team is even more unlikely then before. They're rare in 12-players set-up anyway. In that case, a 3rd party role is more likely.

[SpyreX]

Ohh lord its 11 and not 12? God.

Yea, 8:3 makes even less sense then 9:3

[SpyreX]

* If all parties thus far are telling the truth. Which they aren't.

[AlmasterGM]

For some reason, I have a feeling that we are playing in an extremely odd setup and that what normally applies probably doesn't apply.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

Okay, here's my analysis as promised.

Unvote

:

AlmasterGM:

Both ISO: 3 and ISO: 5 are basically contradictions of each other (hiphop was right when he said it was interesting). AlmasterGM did promise to catch-up, but it took him five days to make another post (Promised to catch-up on June 14, 2010, doesn't do so until June 18, 2010), but that's a very minor scum tell at worst and a null tell at best, especially considering that post was good and that he did say he was a busy guy. Another thing to note was that I noticed him distancing from me. On his catch-up post, he said that he didn't get the case on me. Then when I claimed, he said I was probable scum, which I really don't see how a claim could be that suspicious. Those are minor reasons, thought, and none of them are really scummy, with the possible exception of the distancing. He has been contributing a fair bit in the game. I like how he along with hiphop helped get this game started up. His counter-attacks on hiphop is good and his case on llamaeatataco is as good if not better then Sando's. I'm getting a slight town read from him.

charter

: First five post doesn't say that much, with the exception of ISO: 2. But it made him look hypocritical on him because he wasn't active at the time as well. Saying that I'm lying is odd as well, especially since I highly doubt we have a Day Gunsmith (Charter, are you a Day Gunsmith?). Nice to see him contributing, thought, and he does make some decent points about nopointinactingup and llamaeatataco. For now, I have a null read on him.

crypto

: The majority of crypto's post has basically been one-liners. Some of his posts could have been grouped up with other posts. I'd also like him to explain why he switched his vote from nopointinactingup to SpyreX so quickly. Also with his lynch candidates, he doesn't really push them that much. He has a slightly scummy read from me. Only thing that saves him from a vote is that he doesn't repeately commit scum tells.

hiphop

: His vote on AlmasterGM does sound like a bit of OMGUS, although not purely. Aside from that, he has been one of the best players here. He has been contributing more then most other players here, as I do admire his dedication. His defense against AlmasterGM's claim I will admit is good (Really, this is the rare circumstance where both the attacker and the defender are actually getting town reads from me). I also like how he push cases against other people and asks difficult questions. Overall, I have a strong town read on him.

llamaeatataco:

First scum tell from him was ISO: 1, where he voted for AlmasterGM. He didn't explain the vote at the time, yet he said it wasn't a random vote. A second thing to note is that in ISO: 2, he said he wouldn't vote Sando because it would be full of fail and OMGUS. OMGUS is not strictly in vote form. It can also apply to flimsy attacks against a person who's attacking you, so it is kind of an OMGUS. He later contradicted himself in ISO: 3 by voting Sando, making it pure OMGUS vote on him. To top it all off, I do agree that he is being very defensive. He's fairly scummy and I wouldn't mind him lynched.

nopointinactingup

: During the early part of the game, he doesn't say much. I will admit he does improve later on in the game. However, like others, his millar claim does catch my attention. I really don't have much else to say about him, except that I would like for him to explain his suspicion on Sando (Unless of course it's basically agreeing). Although I would be willing to lynch him under the very last resort, he does have a null read from me.

podium123456

: First thing that helped distinguish him is that he manage to make a decent point against crypto, basically saying he asked almost everyone to explained there town/scum list yet place a vote on me without explaination. His analysis on June 14, 2010 is good, I will admit, but it also felt force, since it was basicall a respond to hiphop, who told him to take a stance on someone. I will say that he is one of the better players in the game, thought. His scum hunting technique is somewhat unique and works. He has also commited almost no scum tells in the game so far. Overall, I'm giving him a considerable town read.

Sando

: I find it weird that in ISO: 2, he dedicated half of that posts to hiphop, but then votes for llamaeatataco. He has definently done a fair bit of defending on AlmasterGM and a few posts has consisted of him defending me a bit. I'm not sure why he's defending people who can defend themself. Most of his post contains of attacking/defending against llamaeatataco, hiphop, and SpyreX, occasionally going to the point where tunneling is present. Although he has contributed some form of contents in the game, I'm getting a slightly scummy read on him.

SpyreX

: I have yet to complete a game with him, so to be honest, he's a tough read. I still call llamaeatataco's original vote some form of an OMGUS reply, although not purely. He has also been defensive. But to be honest, I now see the defense a lot more genuine then the one from llamaeatataco. He has also been scum hunting a bit and I do apperciate that. Also, his last big post was good (Just one flaw). I need to seriously reconsider my read on him, so I'll give him a null read.

Wickedestjr

: I personally thought his vote on SpyreX was horrible, basically off meta. Even with his explaination, I still don't believe it. His last post said he had stronger suspicion them SpyreX, yet he has a vote on him. But I will give him credit because he has made a great case against Sando that actually started to make he suspicous of him and he has been contributing a lot. Basically, his town tells outweight his scum tells. I give him a slight town read.

Probable Townies

:
hiphop
podium123456

Possible Townies

:
AlmasterGM
Wickedestjr

Null

:
SpyreX
charter
nopointinactingup

Possible Scums

:
crypto
Sando

Probably Scum

:
llamaeatataco

With that all said,

Vote: llamaeatataco

[hiphop]

guys I just went over 13 hours of work. I am going to do nothing but go to bed. When I get up, I am going back to work, so don't expect anything from me for another 20 hours. If I do another 13 hours then don't expect that either.

Hopefully, I got my wish and the mod extended the day. If not I hope you guys are voting llama. Remember if not a majority there will be a no lynch.

Good night.

[Sando]

Deadline has been extended, although hasn't been stated when till, waiting on vote-count and deadline time/date to see where we're at.

SSBF's strongest lynch being "

He's fairly scummy and I wouldn't mind him lynched

" isn't exactly a strong read, and the fact that none of the other claimants are listed as either possible or probable, both being listed as null, seems pretty damn odd.

As for my opinion, I believe it for now. That may change depending on if his investigation is true or not. Therefore, I agree with hiphop in where Charter should investigate nopointinactingup.

How exactly are you going to know if the investigation is true or not SSBF?

I agree with Spyrex that the chances of us having both a gunsmith and cop are extremely low, although with the caveat that I have no idea how sanities would affect that. But I think that insanities would make it more swingy.

[SpyreX]

Sanities (aside from random which is WOOSH) don't alter the inherent issues with multiple investigative claims.

I'm on record with one of them is lying. I'm double on record with that being SSBF over charter based on the day.

[Wickedestjr]

Also SSBF- Wicked is claiming that Sando is skipping questions. If Sando is, is Sando scummy for that? Oh...wait...Sando is the guys you are buddying with. My bad.

Really? He seems to show suspicion of Sando here. Are you sure about that?

1. I am basing my read that nopoint is indeed town at this moment because he claimed miller. Again am I scummy?
2. Those points were the reason as to why you voted for him. If he ignores them, what changed? Or are you saying you bs'd those reasons, so technically your vote on Sando was bs as well.
3. I would think that if KK was scum, then np is possible scum. Or you would at least look at him in a scummy light? Or are you agreeing with Spyrex that np's claim is townie?

1. Why do you think he is town? I didn't realize you thought nopoint was town. I don't think SpyreX's stance on the miller claim makes hardly any sense, but I didn't know/remember what your stance was.
2. Yeah. I bs'd those reasons. But seriously, I found SpyreX more suspicious when I switched my vote.
3. All I've learned from the game in which I lost to a miller is that I need to be more wary of scum claiming miller. I don't look at him in a scummy light because he claimed miller nor do I think he looks like town for claiming miller. I am not going to judge nopoint based off of his claim, but based off of his behavior.

Why was his play so inspired that game? Yeaaaa that whole reason why THAT was so inspired has a direct correlation here. And not in the OMG META F-- way you're aiming for.

What made his play so inspired that game?

I'm 'suspicious' of anyone who I don't think of as town, do you disagree with this statement?
Suspicious is not obv-town
Scummy is...scummy.

I consider suspicious to equal scummy.

If you're going to get all indignant about missing questions, how about actually pointing out what I've missed instead of just making arbitrary statements.

First of all, I had to ask several times for you to respond to any of my questions, and I think one of my questions you didn't answer until another player asked you. But here is what I'd still like a response to:

Sup, this game started just as I went to bed, then work, then bludging around at home, so post time!

I'm aussie btw, so GMT +10. This would make about a dozen games for me.

Hiphop was looking very good till the vote on almaster. The whole 'I'm going to act like an idiot to catch opportunistic scum' was a bit labored, and I think hiphop isn't addressing why almaster actually voted for him.

Podium is most town by far so far.

Questions:

Wicked, jumping over RVS questions pings my radar, they're a fairly common tool used, mainly to move the RVS along, why do you appear to dislike them?

Hiphop/Crypto, why, simply because almasta decided to call hiphop obnoxious, does that automatically mean that's what the vote is for?

Hiphop, why does there being no connection between obnoxious and scummy mean you're not scummy?

His third question (the bolded) also seems a bit odd to me. Looks like he is either trying to defend almasterg too much or is using a weak argument against hiphop.

Post 64 Sando is defending almasterg even more. Now it is beginning to get bad. First he questions hiphop for thinking that almasterg found him obnoxious but not suspicious, then he questions crypto for thinking almasterg found hiphop suspicious. That looks very contradictory.

So I ask you again, why am I scummy?

I've merely said that I'm suspicious of you for your current play. I haven't voted you, I haven't said you're scum, I haven't FOS'd you.

This is scummy. He completely avoids answering hiphop's question while at the same time he feels the need to point out that he hasn't voted, fos'd, or called hiphop scum.

Claiming not only miller but death miller at that juncture is a town move. Period. Now, if other evidence presents itself that isn't somehow OHH SNAP MILLER than sure. As it sits, town. That action is the most town thing to happen in this cluster.

Not even regardless of but BECAUSE of previous experience its a balls-out move and going one step further and claiming death miller is a death warrant. Hence, not a scum move.

Before you said that it was a balls-out move as scum especially as a death miller, which implies that it is a balls-out move even if he had claimed normal miller, so don't try and change what you said:

Nopo's claim is balls-out as scum and I'm not seeing it. At all. Especially as a death miller. Its gonna take a lot more than ohh sigh lets lynch the claimed miller.

[Sando]

Ok... Where's the question there? Can you at least see why I might be confused, you're quoting statements, not questions. Questions end with question marks (?), to get it you hold shift, then press the / key...

In answer the the

statement

about trying to defend almaster or attacking hiphop, I was trying to point out a problem why Hiphops reasoning was illogical, and trying to generate discussion.

In answer to your second statement about questioning hiphop about not being suspicious, where did I ever say that I didn't think almaster found hiphop suspicious.

This is scummy. He completely avoids answering hiphop's question while at the same time he feels the need to point out that he hasn't voted, fos'd, or called hiphop scum.

So when asked why I find someone scum, I point out that I didn't and that I had never said that I did, and you think I was dodging the question? Righto... By the way, I answered his question because it was in fact a question, had one of them special question marks afterwards to warn me.

I consider suspicious to equal scummy.

Thank you for this well considered response...

[Wickedestjr]

I'm a Town Cop. In addition to being able to vote and voice my opinion, every Night, I have the ability to investigate a person of my choice.

I'm going to respond to anything that I'm missing. I also promise a full analysis of everyone before the Day ends.

WTF are you doing? Are you even at L-1? Are you even going to be lynched? This claim reeks of fake.

What makes the claim so unbelievable?

I haven't finished catching up yet, but I am not yet sure what to think about charter and SSBF. I need to think it through.

[Hayker]

Vote count

Llamaeatataco 4-(AlmasterGM, charter, hiphop, Super Smash Bros. Fan)

Super Smash Bros. Fan 3-(crypto, nopointinactingup, SpyreX)

Sando 2-(podium123456, llamaeatataco)

SpyreX 2-(Sando, Wickedestjr)

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch

[SpyreX]

What made his play so inspired that game?

Really? Really?

A cop so not-subtly says he's got a guilty. KK pre-empts the guilty by claiming miller - which is then, essentially, confirmed by the cop.

Now, if KK isn't the guilty he had that scum gets lynched AND there's room to lynch the miller claim. Net result being 2 dead scum. It was ballsy, but it paid off.

Before you said that it was a balls-out move as scum especially as a death miller, which implies that it is a balls-out move even if he had claimed normal miller, so don't try and change what you said:

What?

Claiming miller of any variety is ballsy as scum. Claiming death miller adds a bit of spice to it because it gives even more reason to lynch. The whole duck discussion earlier.

[Super Smash Bros. Fan]

SSBF's strongest lynch being "He's fairly scummy and I wouldn't mind him lynched" isn't exactly a strong read, and the fact that none of the other claimants are listed as either possible or probable, both being listed as null, seems pretty damn odd.

My definition of who I think a strong read and what you think is a strong read is different. I personally think that a fairly scummy read is a fairly strong scum read on a person. On top of that, I don't see how it is a problem to have both claimants as null reads, especially since I don't think they're that scummy and that I have better lynch candidates.

How exactly are you going to know if the investigation is true or not SSBF?

If you mean on if he is telling the truth on his investigation, it's going to be this:

Let's say chater does investigate a person and he said it turns up that person has a gun. We choose to lynch the person. If the person who wouldn't normally have a gun turns up to be one of those roles (Doctor, Vanilla Townie), then we can assume that he is lying and possibly a Mafia role. If that person gets lynch and turns up that he does have a role that would have a gun, then I am completely willing to believe charter's role. Sure it doesn't tell alignments, but at least it would tell he's telling the truth. The only way to really find out about a person's alignment is if the person chater investigate turns up that the person doesn't have a gun. Then we can assume that the person is town.

It's like with the Cop role where you can't completely believe that a person that turns up innocent in an investigation is town. You might have investigated a Mafia Godfather or a Serial Killer (Both are usually investigated-immuned) whom turned up Innocent. But with the exception of a Millar's claim, we can believe a Guilty investigation.

[AlmasterGM]

[quote="spyrex"I'm on record with one of them is lying. I'm double on record with that being SSBF over charter based on the day.[/quote]
Agreed, but do you think this is because charter claimed or because the claim itself was just sketch?

[AlmasterGM]

I know how to use preview.

I'm on record with one of them is lying. I'm double on record with that being SSBF over charter based on the day.

Agreed, but do you think this is because charter claimed or because the claim itself was just sketch?

[SpyreX]

Charter's play has been pretty town on the spot. SSBF's claim, timing, and the simple math behind it support that lynch.

[AlmasterGM]

Why are you opposed to giving him 1 night to, worst case scenario, bite RB (real or fake) or, best case, get a result that's authenticity will be later be known?