Newbie 958 ~Game over!

[Incognito]

I did a nice full read-through of the game today, so I'll have my thoughts up by Monday since I'm going down to the shore. I found some cool stuff.

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 3.1

Nobody Special (2)

- Coach Travis, Equinox

Not Voting (3)

- Zachrulez, Nobody Special, Incognito

With five players alive, three votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Thursday July 22 at 07:07 UTC.

Prods will go out on Monday, since it seems we have too many Americans in the crowd to actually get anything done this weekend.

[Equinox]

I'm here. I'm just procrastinating until I see stuff from Nobody Special and Zachrulez on Monday.

[Coach Travis]

Yeah, same here. I'm Canadian so my holiday was Thursday, and I've just been waiting through the American holiday for this to pick up again.

[Zachrulez]

Interesting. I'm leaning towards believing brianj's claim over Shadow Dancer's - I just simply won't accept the fact that my read of the two of them could have been

that

off especially after SD's recent flailing against everyone and anyone tirade.

I don't think anyone should hammer anyone just yet though.

brianj, who do you claim to have investigated during Night 1? This is important.

This bothers me because the post below:

Ah, that's your math. Either way, I'm still leaning towards thinking you're scum. That one post that you pointed me to did sort of break down DTM's case against LC, but you still never really leaned any direction on him (town or scum). In fact, in that post, you pretty clearly called

brianj

of all people town, which is more what I would expect you to say about LC if you really did investigate him as innocent. It just doesn't make sense. When you compare all that to brianj's actions Today where he's consistently attacked you and asked for people's opinions of you, it seems like a pretty clear choice between who's likely the real Cop and who isn't.

Anywho, since deadline's right there and this really seems like a no-brainer, I'm gonna go with this for the hammer -

vote: Shadow Dancer

If he does manage to flip Cop and I'm not around for Tomorrow, you guys should know who to go after.

Was just about 20 minutes after the post where he suggests that no one should hammer. Gives me a bad vibe that he suggested that just so that he could do it himself. (And reap the benefits of the town cred if scum.)

That said, I'm not opposed to a Nobody Special lynch at present. Just a general question mark with the slot not being particularly active, and it's not good to have a slot around that you don't have much to go on with a read.

I want to see what he has to say first though, but if the inactivity continues and he continues to put off posting, I won't have any issue hammering.

[Incognito]

The only reason I said I didn't want an immediate hammer was because I thought brianj hadn't claimed his investigation results. After ShadowDancer pointed out that he had already told us them, I was fine with a hammer on someone. In fact, I very nearly was going to ask one of the SD voters to unvote him in order to prevent a possible self-hammer but thought better of it - I didn't want to give SD any ideas that he himself might not have thought of if he really was scum at that point.

-~-~-~-~-~-~

Anywho, while I can see the case that's been made against Nobody Special, I'm not at all comfortable enough with Equinox at the moment to feel like NS is indeed the final scum. I noticed a few things in my read-through that gave me bad vibes about both her and Lord Chronos who was previously in her spot.

For example, post 225 from LordChronos looks really bad to me in hindsight:

remouk,

I just ISOed Shadow Dancer s well, and couldn't find a quote of him saying he had a town read on Early. He said he thought Earlder might have just been a newbie, but no explicit statement that he thought Earlder was town. Also, as I recall his case came up some time after he replaced in and in no way was only based off another game. It was also based off what Earlder said about being a little scummy being good and how that made no sense given the rewards Earlder got in his first game for being townie and not scummy.

So, where did you find a statement of a town read on Earl from SD?

@All

If Earlder flips scum, I think remouk could very well be his partner. Attacking SD with a case that is incredibly lame while defending Earlder suggests they could be scum buddies to me.

Here, LC mentions that he disagrees with remouk's case against Shadow Dancer but then he ups the ante a step further and attacks remouk calling him a potential buddy of Earlder's for "defending" him. If LC was scum, this absolutely reeks of chainsaw defense.

There were a few other posts that came from both LC and SD where they almost seem to be casually defending one another using the metagame almost too cleanly. It literally made me shudder while reading through it. I can pull up the quotes if anyone wants me to.

In the same token, Equinox's great wall of replacement brought up a bunch of negative comments about Shadow Dancer's posts, but she ended up concluding that me and Coach Travis were likely scum together because she felt like our interactions "looked fake". And then of course she ended up voting me when she didn't really bring up too many points that were particularly damning against me. Her eventual vote on Shadow Dancer did take him to L-1, but I think at that point in the game the tides were definitely shifting - I had unvoted Coach Travis and was becoming suspicious of Shadow Dancer for his L-1 vote, other people (the replacements, primarily) had mentioned that they were becoming suspicious of him too, and the push that initially existed against CT was definitely fading. If Equinox is scum, this could have easily been a very very very good cue that her buddy was probably going down soon and that it might be a good idea to get that vote in there in an effort to sap up some town cred.

Equinox, I realize that a good portion of this has more to do with LordChronos' play than your own, but could you respond to any of the above? Also, why so quick to place Nobody Special at L-1?

[Zachrulez]

The only reason I said I didn't want an immediate hammer was because I thought brianj hadn't claimed his investigation results. After ShadowDancer pointed out that he had already told us them, I was fine with a hammer on someone. In fact, I very nearly was going to ask one of the SD voters to unvote him in order to prevent a possible self-hammer but thought better of it - I didn't want to give SD any ideas that he himself might not have thought of if he really was scum at that point.

Ok, yeah I remember that... still feel a little bit weary about the situation, but that would make a little more sense in context.

Anyway, in addition to your points on Equinox, which I am interested in hearing a response to, I just picked up on this. Note in both quotes the bolded text.

All right.

So first things first: with the death of brianj, I think it's probably safe to say that we're dealing with the following set-up:

*2 Mafia Goons, 1 Town Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies

So the last mafiate is a Mafia Goon and apparently we don't have a Doctor here.

My initial impressions coming into Today are as follows:

- I'm thinking that Coach Travis is town. I just can't see any reason why Shadow Dancer-scum would place a Coach Travis hypothetical buddy at L-1 at the time that SD did. The vote count at that time was pretty deadlocked, and there were certainly viable alternative wagons that SD could have voted for instead of his own buddy's wagon that had only two votes on it (and, realistically, my vote on that wagon was the only serious one at that time anyway - smashbro's vote seemed half-hearted to me). So yeah.

- Zachrulez's stance Yesterday before the SD flip completely blew my mind and left a really bad taste in my mouth, but I think he's safe because of the interactions that SD had with remouk (Zach's predecessor) all game. I just can't at all see two newbie scum buddies going at each others' throats the way SD and remouk did here, so I think it's safe to say that they were on opposite sides. Zachrulez is probably town too.

That leaves me with Equinox and Nobody Special as the most likely scum candidates. I'll be reading through their predecessors' interactions with the known scum and their own interactions with the known scum to try and figure out which of the two is the most likely buddy. I should have a full case by tomorrow.

Which was posted first, followed about an hour later by this.

I'm thinking that Coach Travis is town. I just can't see any reason why Shadow Dancer-scum would place a Coach Travis hypothetical buddy at L-1 at the time that SD did.

Oh, I missed this. Considering that the case against Coach Travis was fairly viable, I'm going to go with this, based again on process of elimination.

Vote: Nobody Special

This is L-1. Nobody hammer until we've heard from Nobody Special and Zachrulez!

Coach Travis's "town cred defense" makes me go ._. because I generally hate those kinds of defenses, but... I'll just run with it. He's actually posting stances now, which looks a whole lot better than what I saw in Day 1 and early Day 2.

From a quick skim, Zachrulez's defense of Shadow Dancer's cop claim is kind of odd. I'll have to read through those again, but (WIFOM ALERT) I doubt he'd do that sort of thing as scum, seeing as he knows I lynched someone for doing that in a game he modded. >_>

Which came about an hour later, and feels like an echoed reconstruction of what Incog said about me.

Further to that point, Equinox's reads seem to be the same as Incog's, which seems kinda strange for a player she seemed so suspicious of the previous day phase.

[Zachrulez]

EBWOP: So suspicious of him the previous day phase.

[Coach Travis]

Yeah, as much as I've liked Equinox, I didn't like LC much at all, and even with the fake cop claim SD was defending Equinox, claiming he investigated her as town, so going just by interactions I could see Equinox being his scumbuddy. I'm still suspicious of Nobody Special though, and won't do anything major until we hear from him.

Even Zachrulez can't be ruled out yet, because his defense of SD when he was clearly faking(I find it hard to believe anyone could trust him over branj at that point), was definitely suspicious, and the whole thing with Remouk could have just been distancing, and my original read was that they were either both scum or town.

Right now Incognito is the only one I'm very certain is town, as none of his play has ever been overly suspicious, I can't see a connection to SD, and he's been very helpful throughout. Right now, I'll just go with my gut feeling, which is that Nobody Special is scum, but I'm not certain of Zachrulez, and Equinox does indeed have to big a connection to SD to just ignore.

[Equinox]

Shadow Dancer, as scum faking cop, claimed to have gotten an innocent result on Equinox to gain my trust. Shadow Dancer really would have succeeded had Incognito not hammered; that was the one result I was sure of, whereas I had no information on brianj except my reads on him and Shadow Dancer. I know risk doesn't mean anything when it comes to Mafia, but I'll say this anyway: If I were Shadow Dancer's scum partner, Shadow Dancer took a damn stupid risk by claiming an innocent on me.

All right. I had narrowed it down to Coach Travis and Nobody Special earlier; that was my own case. My sudden "clearing" of Coach Travis was based on something Incognito brought up, so you could say I followed him, but only in that particular instance. I had no qualms putting Nobody Special at L-1 because no fool would quick lynch him this early in the day. It would just result in a swift and merciful loss for their faction, whatever it is.

I can hardly defend LordChronos's actions. All I know of him is his role, and that he got off-reads regarding Shadow Dancer. Incognito, the majority of your case against my slot is against Equinox's play, not LordChronos's, so I don't know why you're asking me to defend my predecessor. I voted Shadow Dancer to L-1 for whatever reason I posted along with the vote; I claim no town credibility for doing that. Hell, I almost followed Shadow Dancer's cop claim because he claimed an innocent result on me.

Zachrulez, my reads echoed Incognito's because of Shadow Dancer's flip. Shadow Dancer's attacks on Incognito and remouk did not look like distancing; it looked like a genuine attempt to lynch, and it may have gone through if not for certain other things that happened. Shadow Dancer had no reason to bus at that point (not to mention that bussing Incognito is a pretty bad move if Incognito is scum), so I'm led to think both Incognito and remouk are clear for now. That left Coach Travis and Nobody Special, and I've already covered how I got to my final result.

[Incognito]

Equinox's last post seems town-ish to me. I'm beginning to think this game really COULD be as simple as Nobody Special being the last scum, especially since he seems to be missing in this game despite being active elsewhere.

In response to Coach Travis' recent post, I'm still pretty much reading Zach as town. I just can't fathom a Newbie scum team attempting a huge bussing act the way remouk and ShadowDancer/Alta would have had to have orchestrated here. I've read through their interactions over and over again, and they really seemed completely genuine to me. There were even moments where remouk seemed to be taking

offense

to what Shadow Dancer was saying about him -- that kind of thing just doesn't usually happen between arguing partners since they themselves know that their argument is just for show.

[Coach Travis]

Yeah you're probably right about the Remouk thing:I really just get concerned that scum may be running strange gambits, but that was indeed a bit too heated to be fake. And obviously, in a case like this you know more about what you're talking about than me, since you have experience playing as scum, so judging by my current read on you, you're probably right about Zach. And I really never have gotten a scum vibe from Equinox anyway, and I just realized why my previous comment on her was flat out stupid: We didn't know the real cop at the time, so there was a possibility they could have investigated Equinox as scum, which would have proven SD as fake, so I doubt a scum would do something that risky. Which means, I'm as confident as ever about Nobody Special.

[Zachrulez]

Where is Nobody Special?

[Equinox]

Where is Nobody Special?

Nobody Special was last seen yesterday, lurking the queues and banning people in Mish Mash.

I itch to request a prod, but Nobody Special should have seen Monday's prod already. Argh.

[Nobody Special]

I love being stalked. Makes me feel so speshul.

I will have some real game-related posting prior to sundown. (That's about ten hours, at the outside.)

[Nobody Special]

I do not at all like CT's iso 33.

While I think it is a very brave move, and could likely backfire, I cannot fathom how he can have only one scum read and the rest are town (or null). It seems odd that he would drive the lynch on his partner, but honestly, everyone else is giving me a very townish vibe.

And then distancing here and here.

And his reason for voting me is that he can't tell what I am. Uh huh.

While I'm not totally convinced, I have no other suspects at this time.

Vote: CoachTravis

[Coach Travis]

Well that vote is kinda weak, because you're doing the same thing you accused me of:Saying you only have one scum read and everyone else seems town. Hypocrite! Plus, you had the a similar reason for voting me and that you no other suspects, and which is I voted you:If there's one scum left in the game, one person I'm not sure of,and everyone else is clearly getting a town read, that leaves me with one conclusion:The person I'm not sure of must be scum. So yeah, the lack of any defense and this weak vote makes me even more confident than ever that Nobody Special is scum.

And the second of your examples for "distancing" is just sloppy play from me, because I tend to flip-flop around very often, which means I'm really just not the best mafia player around. Still, I said I found him suspicious and needed time to think about it, and obviously if I was his partner I wouldn't have come back and voted him again so quickly. I simply realized I was too quick to let SD off the hook, trusted brianj over him, and was correct in doing so. Also:Do you really think the mafia would put each other into L-1 situations back and forth like that, and not offer up any good cases against anyone else, ornot even try to make a townie seem scum? That would be one stupid mafia.

[Nobody Special]

I'm not saying you're smart, I'm saying you're scum.

And yes, I know my case is equivalent to your case, but when you only have one suspect, what can you do?

[Nikanor]

Vote Count 3.2

Nobody Special (2)

- Coach Travis, Equinox

Coach Travis (1)

- Nobody Special

Not Voting (2)

- Zachrulez, Incognito

With five players alive, three votes are required to lynch.

Deadline falls on Thursday July 22 at 07:07 UTC.

[Incognito]

Reading through Nobody Special's case on Coach Travis, I'm really not seeing it at all.

While I think it is a very brave move, and could likely backfire, I cannot fathom how he can have only one scum read and the rest are town (or null). It seems odd that he would drive the lynch on his partner, but honestly, everyone else is giving me a very townish vibe.

This seems like you're trying to push some kind of conspiracy theory or something of the sort, which doesn't really hold much weight in my eyes. A sort of "how could his one and only scum read end up flipping scum" kind of thing. The big picture is this: Why would a CT-scum be more likely than a CT-town to have all but one scum read?

And then distancing here and here.

I'm not seeing how those posts could definitely be called distancing between CT and SD as opposed to the alternate explanation of CT being someone who's town who's just sticking with his top suspicion and trying to evaluate things as they come. Do you think his reasons for suspecting SD seem contrived or that his reactions seem fake?

Also, your replacement posts at the start of Yesterday seemed to imply that you found multiple people suspicious in this game. But now recently you've mentioned that you find everyone else aside from Coach Travis townish. What changed between then and now?

[Nikanor]

One post in 27 hours is not enough.
You must construct additional posts, you require more vespene posts, etc.

[Nobody Special]

Reading through Nobody Special's case on Coach Travis, I'm really not seeing it at all.

While I think it is a very brave move, and could likely backfire, I cannot fathom how he can have only one scum read and the rest are town (or null). It seems odd that he would drive the lynch on his partner, but honestly, everyone else is giving me a very townish vibe.

This seems like you're trying to push some kind of conspiracy theory or something of the sort, which doesn't really hold much weight in my eyes. A sort of "how could his one and only scum read end up flipping scum" kind of thing. The big picture is this: Why would a CT-scum be more likely than a CT-town to have all but one scum read?

See, that's the thing. CT-scum is not necessarily more likely than CT-town to have only one suspect; in fact, I would expect a scummember to have

more

than one suspect, because, well, that's the best way. (I'm not saying I have an excellent case; I'm saying I have a case.)

And then distancing here and here.

I'm not seeing how those posts could definitely be called distancing between CT and SD as opposed to the alternate explanation of CT being someone who's town who's just sticking with his top suspicion and trying to evaluate things as they come. Do you think his reasons for suspecting SD seem contrived or that his reactions seem fake?

I think largely his reactions to the SD cop-claim were .... WIFOMish. To me. He went back, then forth, then back, then up and down and.... Flailing.

Also, your replacement posts at the start of Yesterday seemed to imply that you found multiple people suspicious in this game. But now recently you've mentioned that you find everyone else aside from Coach Travis townish. What changed between then and now?

Here's what changed: When I promised a post prior to sundown, I really meant to have an honest-to-goodness real post. I got rushed due to work, and read the last page or so of the game, focusing on who I (mis-)remembered as my only suspect (CT). I presented my (lackluster) case on CT, and there we are. (Yeah, not a good thing.)

HOWEVER, thanks to your questions, I've re-read myself in iso, and I recall that you are also quite scummy. It's Friday, and I have a deadline this evening, but I will try very hard to re-ramp my case against you.

For now,

unvote

However (again). Your prodding me in that manner is not something that careful scum would do (trying to avoid the spotlight and all). So, are you town, honestly trying to understand my reads, or are you VeryBoldScum pushing me. Worth looking into (and when I say

looking into

I mean I have to find a scum!Incog game to read.)

[Zachrulez]

However (again). Your prodding me in that manner is not something that careful scum would do (trying to avoid the spotlight and all). So, are you town, honestly trying to understand my reads, or are you VeryBoldScum pushing me. Worth looking into (and when I say

looking into

I mean I have to find a scum!Incog game to read.)

Here's one.

[Zachrulez]

You sudden suspicion of Incog however, is not impressing me.

[Nobody Special]

Except for the fact that it's not so sudden. It was just laying in the attic, waiting to be remembered. (Thanks for the link, I'll read it in a bit.)