New York 116 - Prozacs Large Normal - Who won?

[Tazaro]

The masons

[Tazaro]

OOPS, hit the submit button.
The masons are mostly Toogeloo; Toon Fighter is like Mr. Hyde.

[Oso]

This is a thinking out loud post.

Claimed Town:(but so far, can't be 100% confirmed)

Toog/Toon- Town Masons
Oso(Me)-Jailkeeper.

Dead Town:(confirmed on death)

Furcolow-Town Tracker
Lowell-Town Bodyguard

Wraith-VT
Charlie-VT
Petroleumjelly-VT

Scum:

AGar-SK(3rd Party)
Bemage-Mafia Goon

Players still alive but unclaimed : 6

Toog, it was Post 971 yesterday when you asked generally what the thoughts we may have on set-up. At least in regards to Town v. Scum numbers.

I'm going to discount the SK(AGar) from this thinking somewhat as an SK would tend to, at least in my opinion, work equally against town and mafia the longer he was in the game (this from a pre-game start POV).

Based on the power that has been revealed and what we can see that has been claimed, I'd say 12:3:1 was decent guess at this point. Although, I wouldn't completely rule 4 Mafia out (11:4:1) if all they have is no power goons (or even an RB) up against all the known and claimed town power. I can't imagine that are completely powerless though. We know Furcolow's and now Lowell's roles and if you grant that I am true claiming, then they have almost got to have at least 1 RB.

What gets me though, is if they have an RB, why does it look like I was able to block AGar N1? Even if they planned on trying to get me lynched over NKing me, I can't see how they would not have at least blocked me. I was the only claimed PR and from what we can see, I was effective at least N1 and that makes no sense. Even less sense if SK and Mafia didn't 'double tap' PJ N2. I would have been blocked on at least one of those nights even if they didn't consider me a huge threat.

So, from my POV, scum don't have an RB.

So, that leaves 2-3(depending on if you are optimistic or pessimistic) scum in the remaining 6 players if Toog, Toon and I are all True-Claiming. With all the Town power that has been revealed and claimed, I think we need to start seriously considering claiming those 6 players. If not today, then by tomorrow. We got extremely lucky last night so that suggestion might be a bit premature for today but depending on the lynch today, who ever is still around tomorrow should consider it.

So, I'm taking myself out of my voting pool (no surprise there), Toog and Toon are out. Stef, I'm considering taking out as (this from my POV) he couldn't have killed last night, I jailed him. Doesn't mean he can't be scum but he definitely wasn't running around killing anyone. I'm also taking Mr.Sandman out. I don't like the post he made after Stef hammered Lowell (I really don't, that post stinks) but on re-reading him, I'm getting a definite town vibe off him. He is coming across, to me, as a thoughtful player who is legitimately scumhunting. The only thing (aside from that post I mentioned) is he has exactly 25 posts in the game so far so his activity overall is poor.

That leaves Troll, tubby, Mothrax and Tazaro. I can't find a real problem with the meta call Toog/Toon made on Troll's player spot (at least not until we see if he's being replaced or shows back up), so down to three.

As I said, this post is as much me thinking out loud and letting you folks know my thinking on the state of the game at this as it is anything else but I'ma go with tubby and for a fairly weak reason at the moment until I can go back and confirm a few things. But basically it's because of his Lowell/Benmage interactions.

I point you folks to these posts by tubby:

Post 434/435

Post 434

ok we need to look elswhere. I am good a lowell i have played with lowell alot. Lowell is town here i would rather you lynch me over lowell.

Post 435

^Without using the word "bogus," Lowell's null-tell lack of contribution is no cause for vote.

Zzzzzz I feel like a broken record here . When would be the ideal time to lynch Lowell, or someone who plays scummy throughout a game, but is excused for it because thats just how they play regardless of alignment. Tell me when?

you don't lynch loweel till i say its time to lynch lowell capiche?

Those were Day One pretty much well after the "Policy lynch Lowell" discussion was over. The post of Benmage's that tubby is responding is old (Post 318 vs Post 435) it really does come across as making a point to go out of his way to disagree with Benmage about Lowell well past the point where it is reasonable.

Then Post 877 (in response to Toog's post of just before it)

cause i said its not time to lynch lowell yet lol

No way to put this any other way. He knows Lowell is town and there is no way he can know except that Lowell isn't on his scum team. He made a point of stating it in direct contradiction of Benmage(Dead Goon) in the top two quotes and continued it when Toog compared Lowell's play with Charlie. Charlie, who was lynched for more solid reasoning than Lowell was, but not by much (I know, I bear my own responsibility for Charlie's lynch as I was the starter of that wagon.)

VOTE: tubby216

I may change that to either Moth or Tazaro after I re-read them and tubby again but I can say already that I have re-read Tazaro on several other occasions and, aside from using the "why is the claimed PR still alive" WIFOM, I see only one thing that equals tubby.

@Tazaro, something to think on. Toog and Toon are every bit as dangerous to scum as I am. One of them gets NKed, it makes the other a confirmed unlynchable. I do find it odd though that you push a case against a claimed PR that will not reveal anything about another player if he is lynched but you ignore two other claimed Roles (the Masons), with that same reasoning. The only difference being is that if Toon or Toog is killed they directly the confirm the other. Why use that reasoning on me, but not them? Because you don't want them confirmed or you believe them? Or because you are that sure I'm lying about my RC? Or maybe, you don't want to play guessing games with a Jailkeeper but also don't want to waste an NK on him just yet, while there is still a chance you can get him lynched and clear the decks?

[Toogeloo]

OOPS, hit the submit button.
The masons are mostly Toogeloo; Toon Fighter is like Mr. Hyde.

QFT

I'd beg scum to shoot Toon before me, but we all know that won't happen. I may as well be a Double voter right now.

I think tubby is as good a place as any to start the day, so I will support the pressure there.

Vote: tubby

Let's not wagon to hell and back this time please. I think Stef should be smacked for the quickhammer yesterday, so no repeats this time. tubby needs the pressure for sure, but that doesn't mean we should silence everyone else with a lynch less than 3 days after the game day starts.

[Tazaro]

This wagon is a logical way to get some words out of tubby:

Vote: tubby

[Mr.Sandman]

My post after the hammer - I came on and saw Lowell had been lynched, I hadn't had the chance to post for a couple of days, since Lowell had claimed or been under that much pressure really and I just thought it would be better if people knew what my thoughts were before the day ended. I think the way Stef went about ending the day looked scummy regardless of what Lowell's flip had been. If you read Stef's day 3 posts, he wants Tazaro lynched at the start of the day because that was the popular alternative lynch the day before, and just abandons that and decides that 'lowell prolly needs to die today'. Then he wants to hear more people on the lowell claim, although the only players he waits for are Agar and lowell, before hammering him when the day is still relatively short, presumably feeling he had what looked like a legitimate reason to do so because Agar was egging on the lowell attack.

I need to re-read tubby for myself when I get the chance. I don't really have a strong read in my mind there at the moment.

[tubby216]

so i am gonna get lynched because i have a good meta read on lowell and i am unattentive to this game? perfect

vote taz

[Toogeloo]

so i am gonna get lynched because i have a good meta read on lowell and i am unattentive to this game? perfect

vote taz

We have too many unattentives in the game. If you didn't want to play it, why didn't you replace? (this kind of goes out to everyone to be honest)


At this point we are narrowing it down. I would recommend maybe claiming and presenting an argument for why Tazaro should be lynched instead. If you are town, it's playing to win, ya'know?

[tubby216]

so i am gonna get lynched because i have a good meta read on lowell and i am unattentive to this game? perfect

vote taz

We have too many unattentives in the game. If you didn't want to play it, why didn't you replace? (this kind of goes out to everyone to be honest)


At this point we are narrowing it down. I would recommend maybe claiming and presenting an argument for why Tazaro should be lynched instead. If you are town, it's playing to win, ya'know?

the case on taz has already been presented so i am not goin to parrot it or re hash it. and no i am not claiming i have what like 3 maybe 4 votes? nope.

[Stef]

V/LA till Friday when I get back in town.

[Tazaro]

so i am gonna get lynched because i have a good meta read on lowell and i am unattentive to this game? perfect

vote taz

We have too many unattentives in the game. If you didn't want to play it, why didn't you replace? (this kind of goes out to everyone to be honest)


At this point we are narrowing it down. I would recommend maybe claiming and presenting an argument for why Tazaro should be lynched instead. If you are town, it's playing to win, ya'know?

the case on taz has already been presented so i am not goin to parrot it or re hash it. and no i am not claiming i have what like 3 maybe 4 votes? nope.

You're out of luck with trying to push a Taz lynch if you're just gonna point to old cases that haven't caused anyone here to vote for me instead of voting for you.

[Oso]

I've done the re-reads I want to.

Going to go ahead and stay with my vote on tubby but have no problem with a Mothrax lynch either.

Basically, most of my case on Mothrax would boil down between the interaction between him and Toogeloo. Basically, the timeline and Mothrax's Toon Fighter votes and revotes and the fact that Toogeloo was heavily bread crumbing a link between him and Toon Fighter.

Moth said he didn't back off because he didn't want to out them by backing off when his alternative, keep pushing, didn't exactly force Toog to claim early but almost required that Toog do so. My impression is that Toog had to beat Moth over the head with claim simply to get the focus of the game back out where it should be. That indicates to me Moth is dense town or scum that wants to confirm a role he suspects.

What makes Moth scum rather than town (in addition to the above) is the way he interacts with Benmage's vote on him. Benmage votes him because of a quote Sandman made in Post 91. I can agree with Sandman there. But Benmage goes back to Lowell with just about no pressurizing on Moth at all when the case on Moth is VERY much stronger than that on Lowell (Lowell has no real case on him other than policy at the time).

Moth makes two posts (186/193) responding to Benmage and then Ben goes back Lowell. My impression is that Ben got onto the Moth wagon simply as a way to distance should Moth end up dead or vice-versa. Ben's vote on Moth was never serious from his end and Moth's defense in regards to what pressure Ben did bring is weak. Certainly not legitimate effort to deflect a town player off his vote.

[Mr.Sandman]

I've read through on tubby and I can see for myself why people think he's scummy. A lot of this has been said already but, yes, he has active lurked a lot and posted a lot of messages of the 'just responding to a prod' kind, which isn't in his favour. He was onto Wraith's wagon as quickly as he could be when Wraith submitted to his own lynch, without giving any reasoning.

The benmage reaction was telling as well, given benmage's flip.

Wraith, your bleeding town at this point which is something scum want gone asap.

@Charlie

why wraith? Your iso 14 which is your forced content doesn't give that much information. State the case on him, and your reasoning. Bullets is fine.

Baddd tubby vote. Tubby follow ze benmage, vote stef.

Not 'tubby you've just placed a scummy vote', just a bad vote and an attempt to deflect that vote away from it being on a wagon on a town player.

The thing that stands out to me most about tubby is the way he is automatically drawn to the most popular scummy players are. Aside from the wraith vote already mentioned, day 2 – puts charlie to L-1 with this post:

vote charlie

i really feel this is the correct lynch i'd like to look at moth tomorrow

He hadn't even mentioned charlie's name before I don't think, and suddenly he's on the wagon without any reasoning.

ISO #23 – says Taz is now scummy, because other people are starting to say that.

Goes straight for tazaro, day 3 and day 4 and doesn't contribute anything else or bother making a case.

One other thing I noticed, which consolidates my read on him in my mind, is the way he hasn't taken on Stef at all. He mentioned him once on day 1 when he said he had a town read. Since then, he hasn't interacted with him or given any opinions of him or mentioned him.

Stef has twice voted him for lurking, but unvoted when tubby actually did express an opinion for the first time shortly after. The second time, he did and then disappeared on V/LA and came back and moved on to a PJ vote.

In conclusion, I agree with the scum reads on tubby

[Mr.Sandman]

At the moment, my vote would be going on tubby, but I don't want the day ending sooner than it needs, especially while we wait on a Zorblag replacement

[Tazaro]

Stef's been forgetable all game long. I mean, the weirdest thing about BenMage was his pushing on a rather lonely Stef bandwagon, and I really take scum's trivial crusades with a grain of salt.

[Toogeloo]

It's not uncommon at all for scum to vote for each other and stay off the main wagons. It's one of the reasons town players get crucified later.

I remember stating that I disliked how easily Stef gave up on the tubby vote on Day 1 simply because tubby came in with a tiny amount of content, one tidbit of which stated that he thought Stef was town. It was the reason I got on Stef and FoS'd tubby.

Benmage had little vestment in the Stef wagon; he really didn't even put forth effort, and he was the only on it once interest in Day 1 was gone and Wraith's lynch was better than no lynch at all.

I would not doubt Stef and tubby both being scum personally, especially as we begin to wane on suspects. Tubby refusing to claim when he is at -2 doesn't surprise me, he has been resistant to being pro-town all game.


I want Toon's thoughts as well since his Mason talk last night was minimal, and I also want to wait for Zorblag/replacement. In fact... could I beg of the host to just replace Toon >_>?

[Toon Fighter]

Sorry, toog... Will ISO tubby and be back in a few minutes. Promise!

[Toon Fighter]

OK, my ISO on tubby:

He participated very little. A few posts defending Lowell, a few posts pushing for a Charlie lynch, and now pushing for a Taz lynch. I see nothing pro-town here, and he seems to just leech to the biggest wagon and push it to end another day. Very few interesting posts, and much lurking. Refuses to claim when he has several votes on him, and refuses to state his case on Tazaro too. Very scummy.

Abou Oso, I thought that, if he lived last night, he would be likely scum, as he would be an obvious kill for scum. Scum has, instead, decided to kill our SK. Why? I don't know. They probably didn't target me or toog because we could have been protected by Oso, so that gives him town points, ut why didn't they target him inestead? Hmmm

[Oso]

OK, my ISO on tubby:

He participated very little. A few posts defending Lowell, a few posts pushing for a Charlie lynch, and now pushing for a Taz lynch. I see nothing pro-town here, and he seems to just leech to the biggest wagon and push it to end another day. Very few interesting posts, and much lurking. Refuses to claim when he has several votes on him, and refuses to state his case on Tazaro too. Very scummy.

Abou Oso, I thought that, if he lived last night, he would be likely scum, as he would be an obvious kill for scum. Scum has, instead, decided to kill our SK. Why? I don't know. They probably didn't target me or toog because we could have been protected by Oso, so that gives him town points, ut why didn't they target him inestead? Hmmm

It's been mentioned by at least a couple of people. The longer I'm around, the more likely it is I'm perceived as scum and the easier I will be to lynch (as a thought here, scum missed their chance to get me lynched back when Diginova claimed). There is going to come a point, where if I remain un-NKed, that the rest of the players are going to have to make a leap of faith that I am exactly what I say I am.

It pretty obvious I'm at least partially truthful in my RC, the RB part. No way that I can think of at the moment to prove the protective part of it though. Hopefully that opportunity will come up before I am either lynched or NKed.

[Toon Fighter]

oh, I forgot:

vote: tubby

[Toon Fighter]

he's still at L-1, right?

[Oso]

Unofficially:

Tubby-Oso, Toog, Taz ,Toon.

So L-1 unless I missed a vote.

[Zorblag]

Hmm, it appears that I haven't been replaced. I am now back from dealing with a couple issues so let me get caught up with what's happening in the game. I see that tubby216 appears to be at L-1 from the last couple posts. He had been my top choice for a lynch so I probably think that's a good thing but I'll have to see if he's actually done anything since I was here last.

While I'm getting caught up are there any questions anyone asked that I hadn't answered? Have we had a mass claim that I need to take part in?

-Zorblag R`Lyeh

[mothrax]

Basically, most of my case on Mothrax would boil down between the interaction between him and Toogeloo. Basically, the timeline and Mothrax's Toon Fighter votes and revotes and the fact that Toogeloo was heavily bread crumbing a link between him and Toon Fighter.

Moth said he didn't back off because he didn't want to out them by backing off when his alternative, keep pushing, didn't exactly force Toog to claim early but almost required that Toog do so. My impression is that Toog had to beat Moth over the head with claim simply to get the focus of the game back out where it should be. That indicates to me Moth is dense town or scum that wants to confirm a role he suspects.

What makes Moth scum rather than town (in addition to the above) is the way he interacts with Benmage's vote on him. Benmage votes him because of a quote Sandman made in Post 91. I can agree with Sandman there. But Benmage goes back to Lowell with just about no pressurizing on Moth at all when the case on Moth is VERY much stronger than that on Lowell (Lowell has no real case on him other than policy at the time).

Moth makes two posts (186/193) responding to Benmage and then Ben goes back Lowell. My impression is that Ben got onto the Moth wagon simply as a way to distance should Moth end up dead or vice-versa. Ben's vote on Moth was never serious from his end and Moth's defense in regards to what pressure Ben did bring is weak. Certainly not legitimate effort to deflect a town player off his vote.

I suck at reading crumbs... it took me a long time to realize it and by the time I did and had time to check the thread, toog had claimed. Since my suspicions on him were based mainly on his interactions with TF, the claim changed my mind. Also, no one was listening to my pushing so you saying that I "forced toog to claim" is bull. I was the only one putting pressure on either of them, so why they claimed when if I recall correctly I was being called useless and a waste of a vote is a mystery to me. If you say that my vote was reason I would like to hear it out of their own mouth(s).

As for my interaction with benmage... he jumped on my wagon with little to no reason, I called him out on it, he unvoted me. I was calling him out on where his vote was placed and the fact that it was sammiched in between cases on other players. After he unvoted, I dropped it because it was a defence not an offence. and if it wasn't legit, why did it work.

[Zorblag]

So it looks like tubby216 isn't any worse a lynch now than he was when I was here last. I'm perfectly willing to hammer him at this time so it's time for him to claim.

That Oso's jailkeeper role doesn't work the way that I had thought it did does weaken my argument that it's a poor scum fake claim slightly but I still hold it to be true. It's made even more likely now that we know that he jailkept AGar night one and that he ended up being a serial killer. That and lack of second kills nights 2 and 3 make it very likely that he's telling the truth (jailkeeper is probably the easiest role out there to stop kills of any sort with.) I've got no trouble with how he used his actions and I'm pretty sure that I would have targeted one of the claimed masons once they revealed. It's curious that Toogeloo protested that but so be it.

At this point I think it does make sense to accept that Toogeloo and Toon Fighter are masons. It's a hugely risky claim for scum to make as they pretty much have to be two (town based on the setup) masons or two scum. If they were scum then either of them dying would out the other so it's not worth the risk, especially as Toogeloo didn't have to claim when he did.

That leaves mothrax, Mr.Sandman, Stef and Tazaro. I'm working through them in isolation but I'm not going to get a chance to post them all tonight so I'll get that out tomorrow.

-Zorblag R`Lyeh