Zachtown in the mountains (Game over TOWN WINS!)

[I Am Innocent]

Regarding Nik's question on who I think is more suspicious, oso or jason, I think I lean towards oso.

Jason seems to be all over the place, and though that could still mean he is a poor playing scum, it could mean he is also a townie trying very hard

When I offered to self sacrifice, I was curious to see the responses of those on my wagon. This was the one that jumped out at me the most:

Unvote

IAM, when I said I wanted you frazzled I didn't mean melting down completely. Unvote yourself, your overreaction to the wagon on you is a little silly. Scum IAM would probably play it cool and brush it off so I'm going to make a leap of faith by taking my vote off for now. What you need to do when you come back into the thread is re-read the opening exchange between me, you and benmage. If you still can't see why my vote was on you I will talk you though it. If you are town you can be benefit so get in here and start doing that.

At this point I really doubt any of the people you listed are scum

. In other words, take a deep breath and start again, it looks like this is the first time you have been run up in this manner. Learn from it.

Lets try something different

.

Vote: Nikanor

Usually the mafia distance themselves, so I thought one, maybe two would be on my early wagon to "see where it went". The first underlined caught my eye though. How could townie sotty be so sure that of the 5 or so players that were coming after me, that none of them were scum. It made more sense that scum was on the wagon, maybe multiple scum.

My wagon quickly emptied, which was interesting because I was strongly pushing oso when my sacrifice flipped town.

A few posts earlier, sotty mentions how she likes oso and included a smilie. Yeah probably nothing, but could be something.

Sotty said, let's try something else. Could have been a message to me, could have been a message to a partner on the wagon with her.

I still stand by Post 57 from oso. I reread it and reread it and can't point out what exactly "felt off". All I know is another player mentioned it before me, which makes me wonder all the more about oso. Add to that and his defensiveness over every vote against him (thrown in with a recent OMGUS vote), and I lean towards oso as the more scummy.

After rereading, I'll go back to my scum list including oso, sotty, and guess a third member fell on the other side of the IAI wagon, maybe someone like mongoose.

[mongoose]

v/la

for an unknown amount of time. My computer refuses to work and I can only use my mom's laptop, which she takes to work. Now that I have time I am going to read through and see what I've missed over the last day or so.

[mongoose]

jason's thing about the cop seems kinda pointless. People make mistake and I dont think the fact that he didn't read the set up makes him scum. TBH I forgot the game had no PR's as well.

looking at furcolows last 4 posts he says he thinks we should hurry up and lynch someone, but doesn't say anything contributive as for WHO to lynch. then he gives a vote without information. I don't like that at all.

nothing else really jumped out at me

unvote, vote furcolow

[jasonT1981]

Will hopefully be on to comment later, have a pounding headache and next door having a drill going non stop does not help.

[Sotty7]

Right out of my mouth, hilarious.

lol! I didn't realize that... You have brainwashed me clearly

The trap is that you set up a fight, and the one that backs down first is mislynch potential. Their interaction with their victorious opponent is then more than enough content for you to spin into something scummy. It's a great way for scum to start the day!

Eeeeh no. I don't believe I set anything up, it would have happened with or with my question I think. Also as easy as you can write a scum narrative for the question I can write a townie one. Wanting to know why IAM was using snide statements to make benamge look scummy while keeping his random vote. That doesn't sound like a town thought process on IAMs part does it?

I also took a very clear stance on the “fight” so it wasn't like I was fanning the flames or sitting on the fence.

@Sotty7: IAI was sensible in his response. He said that he didn't want to serious vote right away, but that Benmage was worth watching. What's wrong with that?

Why wait to place a serious vote? Why wait to place a semi serious vote? Acutally, as I type this I am having flash backs of Mini 775 where you spend a big portion of day one arguing about the need for an RVS. Do you still hold these beliefs?

= = = = = =

I'm a bit annoyed. Because IaI made so many bad arguments before that self-vote, and on principle, throwing an antitown hissy fit shouldn't manipulate people off his wagon...but it feels genuine. Call me a sucker, but I'm buying it. So I'll direct my attention elsewhere.

What arguments of his were bad to you? I don't like that I have to ask you this when you essentially ask mongoose the same kinda thing in the same post.

Why exactly do you think I am Innocent's suspicions were decent? Which ones in particular were decent?

This feels like sucking up.

Scummy?

Question to all those voting Nikanor or saying you support his wagon after Locke cast the first vote for him: what in particular makes you suspect Nikanor over another lurker? Is it just that he's already a viable bandwagon?

I'm not voting for Nik for lurking, what makes you think this is a lurker wagon? I will elaborate on my vote in a bit here though. I'm trying to not to wall it up too much so will probably come in a separate post.

= = = = = =

Where are you getting day talk from?

If I was one of three scum in this set up I'd want some day talk. The amount of mislynches needed would make me cry, double day or not.

= = = = = =

I've played with IAI as scum, and he seemed quite calm and collected. He was much more antagonistic here than I expected before his meltdown and I don't really see where the impetus for it came from, given that there were all of three votes on him at the time, which really isn't that much pressure. I'm treating it as a null tell and I think he needs some time to cool down.

This. From what I have seen IAI is very composed scum, he manipulated me very well in newbie 960 which is why I did nominate him for best new player like he said. I don't have any IAI's town play to compare with, but the magnitude of the meltdown just doesn't make sense for IAI scum. I am annoyed that he isn't addressing my point against him, but I will get to that in another post.

Sotty: what do you think of Nik's Jason vote?

I thought it was a RVS vote. He is now repping it as serious without any real transition. Not liking that move too much considering he hasn't asked Jason any questions at this point. He is just piling on with Elmo's reasoning and not even Elmo is voting for Jason. (I notice this changes as I work though the thread a little more, but at the time this was my thoughts)

= = = = =

No, I'm a day cop. jasonT is mafia.

And what is your goal behind claiming this early, when you're not even at L-1?

I won't go into “omg read the 1st post” but you seemed to believe this claim. Why didn't you vote for Jason?

= = = = =

ok,

i see above he is lying

.... Im happy with my vote. A claim like that could have outted a real cop.

Shouldn't you already know he was lying? What did you see?

Unvote

;

vote:jasonT1981

And how could a real Cop be outed in a mountainous game?

This is quite telling if you ask me.

How? Other players have demonstrated a lack of knowledge to the set up (furc, IKD) are they scummy too? I see your follow up to Jason in post 169 but you should know that being defensive isn't a scum tell.... So what?

= = = = =

However, that does look like a slip by jason.

Unvote. Vote: jasonT1981

Bad backdoor wagon vote right here.

Elaborate in your next post how Jason slipped and how that is scummy.

= = = = =

Usually the mafia distance themselves, so I thought one, maybe two would be on my early wagon to "see where it went". The first underlined caught my eye though. How could townie sotty be so sure that of the 5 or so players that were coming after me, that none of them were scum. It made more sense that scum was on the wagon, maybe multiple scum.

“I really doubt” isn't me being

sure

. At this point of the game I don't find the players you rattled off to be scummy. I also think you are reaching in this whole post with my whole “lets try something different” but whatever.

= = = = =

Okay I'm caught up. More coming.

[Sotty7]

why would I try to dirty benmage and then say he is townie? Your logic doesn't add up girl. Try again.

IAI I asked you on two seperate occasions to reevaluate this bad attack on me. Why did you ignore this?

The fact you threw in a dig on a player who you later state is probably a townie doesn't make you look good. I stated that I felt your direct question to benmage was more than a little bitter sounding

Any other scummy plans you think we should incorporate?

Explain to me why I wouldn't, upon seeing that post, think that you saw benmage as scum? It isn't until I directly question you that you say he is town. These two actions don't add up and I don't see how I wasn't justified in pushing you on this.

Your self righteousness is sticking on me (but you nommed me for a scummy how could you possibly vote for me?!!) I don't like your reactions during being run up, and your posts since have been tainted with OMGUS. I hate to say it, but until you pull your head out of your ass and take an objective look at your wagon I can't take you seriously. You can't just paint those who dare ran you up as scum without any real solid logic.

I'd also like to know why you think Nikanor is town.

= = = = = =

I decided to switch to Nikanor because basically of what Locke pointed out. His first post ignores legit discussion that is going on completely. He makes a set up speculation statement as far as the night talk goes that I'm not really sure had any real point.

His next post represents his vote on Jason as serious all along. Building a case but not actually asking Jason any questions. Doesn't look like real scum hunting, more taking advantage of a players scummish play style. He makes no elaboration on why Jason is “obv scum” and like I commented earlier, seemed to be piggy backing on Elmo's pressure.

He does get a little better as the game progresses but I quite like my vote right now. Dry-fit would be a good second choice.

Other players I am looking at:

Red is a little off. The vote on Jason is terribad as I detialed in my last post. Looking for more of an explanation from him ASAP.
IKD seems tentative. His questioning Nik on his claim looks weird without a vote.
Mina. I have a love hate relationship with her right now. Some of her stuff is great, some sets my gut twitching. Probably need to see more before I can decide.

Locke and KaleiÐoscøpe are my biggest town reads at this point.

[Dry-fit]

Elaborate in your next post how Jason slipped and how that is scummy.

In response to Nik claiming he had a guilty result on jason and later admitting he was lying, jason said this:

ok, i see above he is lying.... Im happy with my vote. A claim like that could have outted a real cop.

As if he didn't realise it was a lie before. (Hint: If jason was town, he would have already known it was a lie.)

I called Nik a liar in my initial response to him...
I posted a vote based on his lie
I then see above my post he admitted to lying.. and post so I see he is lying. meaning he just admitted to lying.

I don't buy this explanation at all.

[Sotty7]

Jason was talking about Nikanor lying about the role cop right? There is no slip there.

Why don't you buy the perfectly plausible explanation?

[Furcolow]

Apologies for not posting so much, I like to get in a minimum of once a day.

Like my vote where it is at so it stays there on Dry-fit for now.

Nik/ImKingDavid/jason. Friggin hilarious man, seriously.

@Dry-fit, when you said this:

..
..If saying something verifiably wrong is almost always worthy of a vote, is Nikanor scummy for claiming daycop?
..

I'd say yes if I hadn't played mafia with Nik before. I would have mentioned it (with or without a vote, probably without) but in this case, with the interaction between Nik, David and Jason. I say this instead.



As much as it pains me to admit though. Dry-Fit does have a point about Furcolow but since Dry-fit dropped me so quickly in favor of an easier target, I'll stay with him.

I'm liking a Dry-fit/Furcolow pairing for 2/3rds of the scum team.
Basically FOS a scumbuddy:

..
Furculow's posts up to this point have been terrible. He asks people to tell him which wagon is best, jumps on one of the biggest wagons, and then suggests we name all the scum and set up chain lynches.

However, that does look like a slip by jason.
Unvote. Vote: jasonT1981

Then vote a townie. (Yes, I do think jason stands a decent chance of being town because that whole thing regarding him and the Nikanor claim just strikes me as too bizzare to be anything but genuine.)

And then the scumbuddy counter-votes the FOS, 2nd post up above this one, with basically no real reason given.

unvote;
vote: dry-fit
following my heart

No.
No.
No.
That's why I fucking voted him, because he's trying to buddy me when I'm town. He's trying to make me look like his scumbuddy. Good job falling for that. IF YOU WANT TO MARTYR ME, SO BE IT.

jason's thing about the cop seems kinda pointless. People make mistake and I dont think the fact that he didn't read the set up makes him scum. TBH I forgot the game had no PR's as well.

looking at furcolows last 4 posts he says he thinks we should hurry up and lynch someone, but doesn't say anything contributive as for WHO to lynch. then he gives a vote without information. I don't like that at all.

nothing else really jumped out at me

unvote, vote furcolow

AS TOWN:
1) too much discussion can ruin the game and our lynch
2) Dry-Fit's FoS on me (with me as town) is an expert attempt to try to get me framed...
a. consider he already has a wagon on him
b. consider i am a very easy mislynch
c. consider that i thought there might be roleblockers and medics and shit... i'm obviously a townie
3) You're voting me for wanting to quicklynch, then voting quickly? I'm flip-flopping here? I don't think so!

Dry-Fit is a good lynch. I wouldn't mind us quicklynching him.

Right out of my mouth, hilarious.

lol! I didn't realize that... You have brainwashed me clearly

The trap is that you set up a fight, and the one that backs down first is mislynch potential. Their interaction with their victorious opponent is then more than enough content for you to spin into something scummy. It's a great way for scum to start the day!

Eeeeh no. I don't believe I set anything up, it would have happened with or with my question I think. Also as easy as you can write a scum narrative for the question I can write a townie one. Wanting to know why IAM was using snide statements to make benamge look scummy while keeping his random vote. That doesn't sound like a town thought process on IAMs part does it?

I also took a very clear stance on the “fight” so it wasn't like I was fanning the flames or sitting on the fence.

@Sotty7: IAI was sensible in his response. He said that he didn't want to serious vote right away, but that Benmage was worth watching. What's wrong with that?

Why wait to place a serious vote? Why wait to place a semi serious vote? Acutally, as I type this I am having flash backs of Mini 775 where you spend a big portion of day one arguing about the need for an RVS. Do you still hold these beliefs?

= = = = = =

I'm a bit annoyed. Because IaI made so many bad arguments before that self-vote, and on principle, throwing an antitown hissy fit shouldn't manipulate people off his wagon...but it feels genuine. Call me a sucker, but I'm buying it. So I'll direct my attention elsewhere.

What arguments of his were bad to you? I don't like that I have to ask you this when you essentially ask mongoose the same kinda thing in the same post.

Why exactly do you think I am Innocent's suspicions were decent? Which ones in particular were decent?

This feels like sucking up.

Scummy?

Question to all those voting Nikanor or saying you support his wagon after Locke cast the first vote for him: what in particular makes you suspect Nikanor over another lurker? Is it just that he's already a viable bandwagon?

I'm not voting for Nik for lurking, what makes you think this is a lurker wagon? I will elaborate on my vote in a bit here though. I'm trying to not to wall it up too much so will probably come in a separate post.

= = = = = =

Where are you getting day talk from?

If I was one of three scum in this set up I'd want some day talk. The amount of mislynches needed would make me cry, double day or not.

= = = = = =

I've played with IAI as scum, and he seemed quite calm and collected. He was much more antagonistic here than I expected before his meltdown and I don't really see where the impetus for it came from, given that there were all of three votes on him at the time, which really isn't that much pressure. I'm treating it as a null tell and I think he needs some time to cool down.

This. From what I have seen IAI is very composed scum, he manipulated me very well in newbie 960 which is why I did nominate him for best new player like he said. I don't have any IAI's town play to compare with, but the magnitude of the meltdown just doesn't make sense for IAI scum. I am annoyed that he isn't addressing my point against him, but I will get to that in another post.

Sotty: what do you think of Nik's Jason vote?

I thought it was a RVS vote. He is now repping it as serious without any real transition. Not liking that move too much considering he hasn't asked Jason any questions at this point. He is just piling on with Elmo's reasoning and not even Elmo is voting for Jason. (I notice this changes as I work though the thread a little more, but at the time this was my thoughts)

= = = = =

No, I'm a day cop. jasonT is mafia.

And what is your goal behind claiming this early, when you're not even at L-1?

I won't go into “omg read the 1st post” but you seemed to believe this claim. Why didn't you vote for Jason?

= = = = =

ok,

i see above he is lying

.... Im happy with my vote. A claim like that could have outted a real cop.

Shouldn't you already know he was lying? What did you see?

Unvote

;

vote:jasonT1981

And how could a real Cop be outed in a mountainous game?

This is quite telling if you ask me.

How? Other players have demonstrated a lack of knowledge to the set up (furc, IKD) are they scummy too? I see your follow up to Jason in post 169 but you should know that being defensive isn't a scum tell.... So what?

= = = = =

However, that does look like a slip by jason.

Unvote. Vote: jasonT1981

Bad backdoor wagon vote right here.

Elaborate in your next post how Jason slipped and how that is scummy.

= = = = =

Usually the mafia distance themselves, so I thought one, maybe two would be on my early wagon to "see where it went". The first underlined caught my eye though. How could townie sotty be so sure that of the 5 or so players that were coming after me, that none of them were scum. It made more sense that scum was on the wagon, maybe multiple scum.

“I really doubt” isn't me being

sure

. At this point of the game I don't find the players you rattled off to be scummy. I also think you are reaching in this whole post with my whole “lets try something different” but whatever.

= = = = =

Okay I'm caught up. More coming.

This is true, but if you read me in iso one of my earlier posts even ASKED what the setup was likely to be! After reading the rules, it's pretty obvious. Sorry to have asked as opposed to just looking.

Elaborate in your next post how Jason slipped and how that is scummy.

In response to Nik claiming he had a guilty result on jason and later admitting he was lying, jason said this:

ok, i see above he is lying.... Im happy with my vote. A claim like that could have outted a real cop.

As if he didn't realise it was a lie before. (Hint: If jason was town, he would have already known it was a lie.)

I called Nik a liar in my initial response to him...
I posted a vote based on his lie
I then see above my post he admitted to lying.. and post so I see he is lying. meaning he just admitted to lying.

I don't buy this explanation at all.

Not necessarily. I didn't know it was a lie, and I am a townie, so to me it is null
I'm happy with my vote on you scum

[Sotty7]

I wasn't ragging on you for not knowing the set up furc. I agree not knowing the set up is null, the fact people seem to be voting Jason because of this while ignoring you and IKD who did the same thing is just strange.

[Furcolow]

which is why i'm voting dry-fit. couple that with his attempt to FoS me and vote someone else to make it look like scum (first off, that's an old ass tell OSO, and it's related to the RVS, not page 7)

Dry-fit needs lynched to prove my head is in the right place. Oso might scream "bus, bus!", but we will just ignore his insane ass.
I'd like to hear more reason for Mongoose's vote on me. AFAIK he's voting me for "wanting to lynch someone".

I am not happy with the way dry-fit is playing considering he's being wagonned. If he was really town, he would be providing a better defense for the accusations raised against him. Through ignoring them, he confirms them to be right and properly raised.

[Benmage]

I did some reading here, when the thread was locked...but gonna go back and reread so i can quote things.

[I Am Innocent]

why would I try to dirty benmage and then say he is townie? Your logic doesn't add up girl. Try again.

IAI I asked you on two seperate occasions to reevaluate this bad attack on me. Why did you ignore this?

Ummm, where were you...I kinda had a meltdown right after you asked this question...

Okay, truth be told, I thought I gave my reasoning for why I thought Ben was townie in Post 70. Everything I did, the hostile questioning, the throwing out of words like scummy, it is all to gauge reactions. He acted like a newbie townie to me.

I still think scum trying to discredit someone who seems easily discreditable would probably be playing a poor game if they took a stance calling said person townie. You played against me as a mafia and modded a game where I replaced in as mafia...you won't find a time when I tried to discredit someone only by following up with a stance of me thinking they were town...

Explain to me why I wouldn't, upon seeing that post, think that you saw benmage as scum?

Because I didn't vote for him. No, seriously.

Your self righteousness is sticking on me (but you nommed me for a scummy how could you possibly vote for me?!!) I don't like your reactions during being run up, and your posts since have been tainted with OMGUS. I hate to say it, but until you pull your head out of your ass and take an objective look at your wagon I can't take you seriously. You can't just paint those who dare ran you up as scum without any real solid logic.

Any real solid logic...are we back on scum tells again?

If I am townie, you really think 0 scum jumped on early as I was sticking my foot in my mouth? Real logic is experience, and experience tells me that mafia probably got on both sides of the debate there. For you to not believe that, well that ain't the sotty I played with. Then again, that sotty was town...

I'd also like to know why you think Nikanor is town.

Cause I'm a day cop.

[Mina]

To be honest, I'm having severe problems concentrating on this game right now, because of [REDACTED]. So my heart's not really in this today.

Instead of writing another giant soul-sucking catch-up post, I'm just going to make a bunch of scattershot posts as I go.

I still need to check his other games, but I've lost my will to continue this wagon after that wide-eyed response from mongoose. It would be like shooting Bambi.

UNVOTE: mongoose

Leaning toward a RedCoyote vote at the moment, but hang on. I'm not fully caught up yet. Need to figure out the jason mess and get a better read on dry-fit and Furcolow.

How did he misinterpret it? It's not terribly easy to follow what IAI's saying, so maybe I've got the wrong end of the stick.

I'd noticed that wasn't really accurate, which was why I corrected myself in #111:
Also, I mischaracterized I am Innocent's response to Benmage. This is what he said:

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

So basically, I don't like that you were so quick to defend him

to the point that you gave false reasons for his behaviour

. Yes, it's the irritating and overused "you're acting as though you know his alignment" tell; I understand the temptation to rush in to help a floundering townie. But where did your town read on him come from? Was it

solely

because you'd thought he'd missed Benmage's post?

Percy's answers satisfied me (his posts don't have that calculated "Look at how blindingly townish my painstakingly formatted text walls are, everyone!" vibe they did when I saw him as scum). RedCoyote's...eh. It's not so much that his arguments themselves are bad, but that he just comes across as oily and insincere and ingratiating in everything he says. It's hard to pinpoint what I mean, but a few examples:

Goodness, I think everyone here would probably benefit from slowing down and reading a little more carefully. XD

Seriously though, what do you want me to say? I made an early attack and was rightfully swatted back for not doing all my homework. That necessarily kicks my impression down a notch or two on the game as a whole. Now I'm going to have to think twice before I throw my weight at someone of more consequence, so to speak.

Rest assured, however, if I see something flagrant, be it in that group or not, I won't hesitate.

Can people tell me if this is normal with RedCoyote?

When you say, "can't keep track of your own posts", I'm assuming you mean, "can't keep track of other's posts". If this is wrong then let me know.

Nikanor's first post in the game is a dud, and it wasn't just an expectation of him analyzing all the posts prior to his. I was more concerned with the fact that Nikanor didn't really address anything of value. In other words, my vote could've just as easily came with the tagline, "for completely dodging everything important going on".

No, I meant "can't keep track of other's posts." I meant "can't keep track of your own posts." Because I think it's

ridiculous

that you voted Nikanor for not commenting on a mistake you yourself made.

After Oso voted for you for the contradiction, this is what you said:

Whoops. Good catch, Oso. I missed that post entirely.

Unvote; Vote: Nikanor for not catching that before Oso did.

Why did you mention the contradiction in the first place if it was a generic "stop posting fluff" vote? This sounds like you're trying to justify yourself after the fact.

You're definitely going to have to elaborate on this one. I'd also like you to talk a little bit more about Oso in your next post (especially if you're taking a liking to Elmo's arguments).

In all honesty, I don't have that much to say about him. I don't have a problem with his later posts. Basically, my initial gut vibe on Oso was town, but I thought Elmo had a good point that he was making too big a deal of your slip by trying to calculate scum motivations for it. It was the kind of thing where I didn't feel all that strongly about him, but I could intellectually agree with Elmo's argument that Oso's accusations were outlandish.

What made me think Furcolow was probably scum was the cautiousness of his first post, particularly the bolded:

I'm here. My girlfriend is in the other room, and we are arguing.
I have to catchup on an ongoing game, and have 5 pages to read here. I might have to put it off for a few hours... probably less.
Anyone want to give me a quick synopsis?
What is the best wagon? Nikanor, IAmInnocent, RedCoyote, Oso?

I see some people are not on the wagons with multiple votes, yet lynching is good for town D1 as it gives the uninformed side of things we're on information.

Promise to catchup.

I know the setup is open, too, does anyone have any idea as to the most likely setup(s)? I'd like to know for analysis. I believe I will be making a word document or spreadsheet this game, just to try something new.

Him not noticing that the set-up was GIVEN IN THE MOD POST is probably a null tell, and I know placeholder catching up posts of this kind are always non-substantial. But he makes a lot of useless observations that seem designed to fake helpfulness even though they say nothing at all. Telling the town it's a good idea to lynch, for example. Bragging about his "analysis." And asking people to tell him who the best wagons were. Furcolow always spews the thread with crap arguments, but I'd got the impression he usually doesn't care about pleasing people or following other's opinions.

And speaking of which...hey, Furcolow, how's that word document coming along? That spreadsheet? What information exactly were you planning on putting there? What analysis?

I've heard that he's quieter and less prone to spamming as scum. But since then he's reverted to his charming obnoxious and irrational self. To be entirely honest, I've kind of skimmed over his posts, so I should give them a closer look to see if there's anything scummy beyond the usual inability to come to a coherent conclusion.

...But wait a minute. Why did you ask me this question? Because you didn't agree with my Furcolow read, or because of something else? (There is a very specific reason I'm asking this.)

...Dammit. I have to get off the computer now, but an answer to Sotty and comments on jason (to be honest, I can't make up my mind on him) coming later.

Mod note: Removed excess quote tag

[Mina]

Dammit.

Mods: could you fix the formatting of the above post to close the quotation block after this:

Also, I mischaracterized I am Innocent's response to Benmage. This is what he said:

Information Instead of Analysis? I analyzed the one thing worth analyzing so far. Your initial scummy plan. Yeah you nixed it, after you were called on it. I just took the call on it and completely blew it up in your face.

[Zachrulez]

Vote Count #7 of D1 P1

Dry-fit - 3 (Oso, Furcolow, Locke Lamora)
Jasont1981 - 3 (Nikanor, RedCoyote, Dry-fit)
I Am Innocent - 2 (Benmage, I Am Innocent)
Nikanor - 1 (Sotty7)
Benmage - 1 (Imkingdavid)
Oso - 1 (Elmo)
Redcoyote - 1 (KaleiÐoscøpe)
Sotty7 - 1 (Percy)
Elmo - 1 (JasonT1981)
Furcolow - 1 (Mongoose)

Not Voting: (Mina)

If I made any mistakes, please politely point them out and I will correct them.

Deadline for (Both phases of) Day 1 is Thursday November 12 at 12pm CST

With 16 alive it's 9 to lynch.

[Elmo]

So basically, I don't like that you were so quick to defend him

to the point that you gave false reasons for his behaviour

.

(blink) I gave reasons I thought were true for his behaviour. Rereading, it's possible he saw the post and disregarded it, or saw it and still thought it important because people were saying the opposite, or whatever - it's hard to know exactly what he means in some cases. But the broad point remains the same to me; he had this specific, pro-town belief as a motivation to say what he did. The simplest explanation, given that and what he said, was that he missed the post, but it hardly hangs on that.

Yes, it's the irritating and overused "you're acting as though you know his alignment" tell; I understand the temptation to rush in to help a floundering townie. But where did your town read on him come from? Was it

solely

because you'd thought he'd missed Benmage's post?

I think you have it somewhat backwards. I didn't defend him strictly because I had a town read on him; he's a priori likely to be town and he looks like he'd get himself into hot water regardless of alignment. The fact I thought he missed Benmage's post didn't directly contribute to my town read of him at all. (I remain bemused by the idea that acting as if I know someone's alignment is a

bad thing

. The only way not to fulfil that criteria is to never take a stance on anything.)

My town read came largely from gut, part of which I now realise is that I believe this:

Being a number cruncher, I am very certain that it is 61/39 in favor of scum:
1) I ran every scenario with every corresponding probability
2) I created a setup and ran 40,000 trials and the numbers converged to 61/39

As for the other setup (one lynch per day), I just created the setup and ran 40,000 trials. Got to lazy to run every possible scenario and corresponding probability.

I think he did actually run the simulation. Going into enough detail to e.g. decide how many trials to run seems more effort than I'd expect from scum trying to fob people off in this situation. I don't think many scum would attempt that to start out with, and I don't think they'd typically "do their homework" when they did.

Honestly, this looks like a waste of time to me. Do you even think this is suspicious?

Can people tell me if this is normal with RedCoyote?

The one game I played with him was a mini where he relentlessly tunnelled on me from Day 1 for no particularly good reason. Red bothers me, and this is part of it.

Red, why are you being scum?

...and the technical term(I think) for what I used on RC was False Dilemma, basically giving a range of reasons that either point to the player being incompetent or scum: All bad, none good. My answer to that is that I generally don't give a player the acceptable answer in the post I vote them for. Which was all right as Red showed he was perfectly able to get it on his own.

That isn't what I said, though. I said that you had identified the most reasonable explanation (Red missed the post) and

pre-emptively moved to discredit it

by making that response seem unreasonable. That's scummy.

I'll argue with the "trying to sound impressive...." part though. See above.

So you

coincidentally

have a language party that also happens to have a tactical effect that would benefit you if you were scum, but it's just you having some quality time with a thesaurus? C'mon.

Having said that, my magic eight-ball tells me to UNVOTE: Oso. So there!
VOTE: imkingdavid

[I Am Innocent]

My town read came largely from gut, part of which I now realise is that I believe this:

Being a number cruncher, I am very certain that it is 61/39 in favor of scum:
1) I ran every scenario with every corresponding probability
2) I created a setup and ran 40,000 trials and the numbers converged to 61/39

As for the other setup (one lynch per day), I just created the setup and ran 40,000 trials. Got to lazy to run every possible scenario and corresponding probability.

I think he did actually run the simulation. Going into enough detail to e.g. decide how many trials to run seems more effort than I'd expect from scum trying to fob people off in this situation. I don't think many scum would attempt that to start out with, and I don't think they'd typically "do their homework" when they did.

Honestly, this looks like a waste of time to me. Do you even think this is suspicious?

Well honestly it wasn't very hard. Setup a macro, looped it 5000 times, hit the macro button 8 times. Took all of a few minutes... It was much easier than doing every possible outcome with corresponding probability over a 7 day game period, which is what I did for the utilize every lynch scenario!

For anyone that wants to see the file, I have it at work. I can email it home and maybe attach it during my lunch break tomorrow. You can even see the "interesting stragegy" I alluded to in Post 63.

It involved the following:
Step 1) utilize the mafiascum random number generator to randomly select a player (saw it done once in Newbie 908, Nik modded that one)
Step 2) Player from Step 1 "randomly" selects a player to lynch. Prior to lynching that player, lynchee randomly picks a new player.
Step 3) If player lynched is townie, we can trust the randomly picked new player. If player lynched it scum, we can trust the original selected player selected from Step 1.
Step 4) Whoever the player is that we now trust from Step 3, they "randomly" pick someone to lynch. We lynch that player

D1 ends. Assuming scum will not randomly pick, but knowingly pick a townie, probability of at least one mafia dying D1 was around 30%. But the interesting fact was if no mafia died (we lost two townies) the conditional probability that a mafia was one that selected the killing. Can't remember exactly what it was, but it seemed fairly high.

Thought it could stem some interesting conversation D2. May have some "close to confirmed townies", if someone randomly selected a scum. And since D1 is usually a shot in the dark anyway, I thought "random" lynchings might be better than mafia swayed lynchings D1.

But I'm getting sidetracked. My point is, Elmo hit the nail on the head. Anyone that thinks I am crazy enough to do this much homework as a scum is just....well probably scum.

The file is there if anyone wants to request it. Just put the request in, and give me instructions how to attach a file in here...

[Mina]

I'm stuck posting from a phone, so I can only make scattershot comments:

Honestly, this looks like a waste of time to me. Do you even think this is suspicious?

Um...do you want an honest answer?

Come on, I have a town read on IaI as well. Of course it's not suspicious in isolation. It's just a random minor thing that stuck out, that often comes from town, but made me wonder if you were possibly trying to play the reasonable townie who stayed on everyone's good side. You came across as the kind of player who'd be hard to read as scum, and it was all I could pin on you. I often start Day One by asking lots and lots of questions poking at every minor thing just to get a glimpse into people's thought processes. So I don't think it was a waste of time at all.

But I thought that was a good answer, so have a cookie.

Who was it who kept saying how strange it was that RedCoyote was scummy but no one is voting for him? Eh, I'

[Mina]

Goddammit, I hate posting from a phone. For some reason, it wasn't letting me scroll down to the last line.

I meant to say, "who was it who said that it's strange how everyone agrees that RC is scummy, but don't vote for him? Whatever. I still haven't processed all the words in this thread, yet, but I'll take the bait.

VOTE: RedCoyote

[Percy]

Look, I'm saying you have a fair argument against Oso. I could easily see Oso trying to make a big stink over something minor in anticipation of me having to admit missing a crucial piece of information. On the same token, Oso had a point to call me out, and he has since tapered down his sense of grandiosity, as you labeled it.

This is a very reasonable post, but something still bothers me. It's the "AND WE NEVER SPOKE OF IT AGAIN" vibe. His retreat was scummy, imo, as I pointed out earlier. Hmmmmmm.....

I'm this close to saying that you sould lighten up a bit. This close.

I'm also not so happy with the jason vote. What about jason's behaviour is scummy?

kingdavid and Furcolow didn't use it as an excuse to get defensive and lose their cool. jason clearly overreacted.

Jason thought (or so he says) there was a day cop claiming a guilty on him. I'd be defensive and react strongly too...

And what is your goal behind claiming this early, when you're not even at L-1?

This is odd. If he really was a say cop and got a guilty, then of course he should claim. That's a cop's job.

uhm... so when kingdavid says he forgot it means nothing, but when jason says he forgot it's a scumtell? Seriously?

Beat me to the punch.

I also took a very clear stance on the “fight” so it wasn't like I was fanning the flames or sitting on the fence.

Sure you did, eventually. I'd say fanning the flames is a good description, actually.

Why wait to place a serious vote? Why wait to place a semi serious vote? Acutally, as I type this I am having flash backs of Mini 775 where you spend a big portion of day one arguing about the need for an RVS. Do you still hold these beliefs?

Yes. I think the RVS is important and too often truncated. I usually keep it to myself these days, because I think getting into an argument about it every game I'm in is distracting and doesn't help anybody.

(Also that game still makes me cry when I think about it.)

Re: Nik's vote on Jason,

I thought it was a RVS vote. He is now repping it as serious without any real transition.

This. Jason's stumbling is now providing some justification, but I fail to understand how jason's reaction is scummy, rather than just a reaction from someone who is busy and didn't read the setup. Just like Benmage who didn't know about the instaflips.

RedCoyote's...eh. It's not so much that his arguments themselves are bad, but that he just comes across as oily and insincere and ingratiating in everything he says.

I like this read.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm. I still have a powerful scumread on Sotty, but I'm more excited about this right now:

Unvote, Vote: RedCoyote

.

IGMEOY: Sotty

.

Scumreads

RedCoyote
Sotty7
Dry-fit
imkingdavid

Unsure

Nikanor
Furcolow
Benmage
Mina

Townreads

mongoose
jasonT1981
Elmo
Oso
I Am Innocent
KaleiÐoscøpe
Locke Lamora

[Furcolow]

I can get behind percy this game. His post feels really protown. I am another person who really likes the RVS. I disagree with his putting I Am Innocent in townreads, but not everyone is perfect.

Also, percy, why do you have 4 scumreads? There are 3 scum this game, not 4.
I want to vote with you, but I do not feel comfortable voting RedCoyote. I have read him as town.
I also don't like mongoose, even if I believe he is probably town, because he is voting me.

You have Dry-Fit in your scumreads, Percy, would you consider joining me on that wagon?

[Percy]

EBWOP: I said:

Jason's stumbling is now providing some justification, but I fail to understand how jason's reaction is scummy, rather than just a reaction from someone who is busy and didn't read the setup. Just like Benmage who didn't know about the instaflips.

This is poorly phrased. I do not think that Benmage not knowing about the instaflips is a tell either way, but I do think that his "forgetting" line was an unnecessary lie.

@Furcolow

: Of course all four can't be scum, but they're the ones hitting my radar. As for Dry-Fit, I don't like his votes on Oso or on Jason, but I like my wagons better.

[Elmo]

Oh, cool. UNVOTE: imkingdavid, VOTE: RedCoyote
I need to think more about jason because that is pretty much a head exploder right now.

[KaleiÐoscøpe]

OMG PEOPLE ARE JOINING MY WAGON ^_^

I'm happy with either of dry-fit/redcoyote lynched, preferably both