Newbie 1024 -- Minimalist Mafia (Game Over)

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Post Post #225 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 11:51 am

Post by Beefster »

Yenros wrote:@ Beef: I'm not sure if this is actually useful, but how could you forget who your vote had been on when that was what started everything on you?
I'm not sure about you, but I have a life outside of mafia. I usually pop in once after school and make a few posts in each of my games. I don't have that great of a memory and I'm far too lazy to look back at previous posts.
On hiatus indefinitely. This was a nice distraction when I was working through my faith transition out of Mormonism, but I need to move on to bigger and better things now.
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Post Post #226 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 12:31 pm

Post by Mastin »

Sorry. I'm really tired, right now. However, a promise is a promise. I tend to be very obsessive about honor, to the point where it can be unhealthy. :P

So, the above touched on the subject, but this will be longer; I can guarantee it. However, it is something which will be long. Very long, if I'm doing my job right.
Disclaimer:
This is meant for the people who read my SEssion and disagreed with it, thinking it was Opinion-based. Hopefully, this should clarify matters.
Spoiler: TRUST Me: You'll thank me for the Spoiler Tag
Just a small note, In a way, Trendall's statement actually ticks me off, so I'm probably letting that influence me a little. (Trendall said that it was subjective instead of objective. Now, that's fine; if it appears subjective instead of objective, I didn't do my job right, so it's a valid criticism. However, it can also be read as an accusation: I was abusing my SE status by throwing my opinion into the tags, and my opinion will almost always be influenced by my alignment. Meaning, it can be interpreted as an accusation that I was misleading newbies in a SEssion, which is so against my principles that it pushes a berserk button when people mention the possibility. Teaching should--as often as possible--be separate from playing.)

Anyway, with that out of my system, we can get on to me elaborating, as promised. (Promises are serious; I do NOT like it when a promise is broken.)

Reluctance to Hammer simply is a scumtell, and I think if we asked most veteran players, they'd agree. (I could be wrong about this, but I honestly don't think I am.)
Why
it is, however, is a bit more complicated. Again, I think they key is in the wording. For starters, there's this:
My Controversial SEssion wrote:Why is [Reluctance To Hammer] scummy, Trend? Because, if you're town, this should be your last concern.
This might have been a poor choice of words on my part. Perhaps a better way to word it would be as such: "Reluctance to Hammer might be a thought all players have. However, for a pro-town player in a non-lylo situation, they should not be too concerned. They should be weighing other factors involved in it. The actual thought "To Hammer, or not to Hammer" might be in their head, however, there more often than not should be no pro-town reason to post that.
There is an exception, however. Say, you've gone through every single option you can think of which I'm about to go through. You've tried it all, seen the evidence for both sides, and are still undecided. THEN you can post, asking for other opinions on whether you should hammer.
However, it should be a question. It should be you asking for advice. You either post all or none of your reasoning for the pros and cons: no middle ground, like a single reason not to, such as, "A lurker such as me hammering would look bad". (Just an example, not meant as a paraphrase of Trendall's wording, just so we're clear. This is meant as a fictional example I thought up of.) If you have only one reason, you're probably not thinking about it enough. Again, many or none, no middle ground.
That's how you should go about asking about the hammer. It shows you have an open mind to possibilities. You're willing to listen. And if you ask for help deciding, you're more likely to have people think you're well-intentioned town who is genuinely having trouble decided." (Continuing on...)
That said,
The SEssion Continued wrote:We all make mistakes. None of us are perfect; we all have our flaws. If you hammered town, so what? We lose a town player, but gain information from their lynch. True, we wouldn't hit mafia, but we are one step closer to that.
This is something which goes into the above. It's something you should consider. Basically, it's alright if you screw up when you hammer. Many,
many
people have made mistakes by hammering someone who is town. However, it's not a bad thing. If nobody ever hammered, we'd never lynch scum, either. Sure, we'd avoid lynching town, but we wouldn't win, either, now, would we? So, it applies in that way, too: we could lose a town player, but we could hit scum, so there's no shame, no suspicion, in hammering. (Umm...
Most
of the time.) In the Pros section, there's the fact that we gain information from the lynch, no matter what. Sure, we have a con (we didn't hit mafia), but because of the Pro (we have information--we know the lynched was town. We know their opinion was genuine. We know that scum statistically are likely to have played a part in their lynch. [On average, scum tend to like being half-on, half-off. All-on is considered suicidal to more veteran players, because Bandwagon Analysis {looking at previous vote counts} sees that pattern really quickly.] All good stuff to know), we are one step closer to finding who the mafia are.
I mention other Pros later on, too.
This is a Pro I mentioned wrote:That said, though, just because you don't want to look like scum, doesn't mean there aren't any valid reasons to NOT hammer Beefster. In fact, a very pro-town reason was already brought up in-thread by Yenros: for more discussion. More discussion--99% of the time--will be better than less discussion. Considering how far away the deadline is, that is a valid reason to not hammer. Had you [Trendall] said
that
, I wouldn't have thought twice of it.
A good pro-town player will be weighing all of this in their mind. A newbie might not think about the implications of this, but I can almost guarantee you all veteran players do this, even if they never think about it. It's such a small thing that it's basically subconscious, but yeah, I'd be surprised if someone experienced genuinely never thought of something like this. All of this leads to the next part:
They shouldn't fear the hammer, because hammering is part of the game.
I've explained this above. Without hammers, we never lynch. Without lynches, we never win. Sure. We
could
be lynching town...but we also could be lynching mafia. Townfolks have no way of knowing which is which.

Now on to the important part.
Scum, however, do [fear hammering]: scum fear the hammer, because of the exact reason you state: they fear that it'll make them look scummy.
This seemed self-explanatory to me. However, now that I look at it, I was right and wrong. It tells the message fine. However, it gives no proof. I state flat-out that scum fear hammering, because it'll make them look scummy. It's my fault that I didn't give you any evidence of this off the top of my head. I have dug up many links for this in the past, however, I'd have to track them down, and that--again--takes time. (This post has--as of now--taken me 40 minutes, and I'm not even close to done.) So, I'm afraid I still can't give examples of how this is true. But, the logic behind this isn't that hard to follow. Scum fear hammering, because of all the cons involved. For instance, it cuts discussion. Pro-town players oftentimes won't like that, because discussion is pro-town. The scum tend to know a few Pros to hammering, but mainly, their given reasonings are mostly BS for their true reasoning of wanting a mislynch to get closer to their victory. They post their willingness to hammer, but often times, give little to no reasoning why, instead preferring a reason or two to not. This is huge, because it shows that...what's the word...Fencesitting? Yeah, I think that's it! Fencesitting. Sitting in the middle of both sides. They can go to either side at will. If they can go to either side at will, they can take the side most advantageous to them in the end. They have a specific way of wording things. Words hold power. Sentence structure, synonyms, etc. People can be incredibly diplomatic with their wording, and this is what scum try to do. I elaborate on this in my post above.
Basically, scum...think that hammering will make them look worse. They think, however, that it's a good idea to express interest in hammering. "I mean, what's wrong with expressing interest? As long as they don't give the finishing blow to a townsperson, they're fine! After all, Refusing to hammer is a town tell. So, Reluctance to Hammer would look similar to Refusal, only when you get approval from the town, you can go ahead and hammer, without a complete reversal!"
...Yeah, basically that. I think this better explains the concept. I wish I had more proof. I know
I
think that way as scum. I've seen scum on multiple occasions show reluctance to hammer, but I don't have any links. It's a common scum thought process. I've seen it a lot more from scum than from town. Which is why it's what people consider to be a scumtell. (I could be wrong. But I don't think I am.)

As I mentioned, I truly do believe "Most players who are even semi-experienced realize that hammering is far from a scumtell in most cases.", as I said in that post. Again, this goes to "Yes! Hammer/No! Don't!/Hmm...Maybe?". I guess that's a larger part of my argument on the matter than I thought. One of the things you mention is my tells. That would be referring to this part:
Reluctance to hammer, however,
is
[a scumtell]. You're afraid to look bad. Townfolk know they are town, and tend to be a
little
more on the carefree side. Remember my tells? This was one of the most valid for a reason--I've found it's around 60/40 for work/not work. Unless you're constantly cautious, there is no pro-town reason to fear the hammer of a player who
might
be town--they might also be scum; you don't know, if you're town!
If you're scum, however, you do. You
do
know they are town, and that you're hammering town, and that you'll look bad. Therefore, what you did was a bad scumtell, Trendall.
In hindsight, saying it was a bad scumtell probably read as an accusation against Trendall; it was not intended as one. However, I'd like to point out that no scumtell is universal. Town people do scumtells all the time. It's a scum tell because it's more
likely
for it to be done by scum; it is not
required
for it to be done by scum. And as mentioned, some players ARE naturally cautious, and there's nothing wrong with that. If Trendall is as he says (I need to look at his past games), it could just be part of his meta.
The rest still applies, though. Scum who hammer are afraid to look bad. That's probably at the core of my argument, so you'll hear it a lot. (I wish I could be more clear and concise, but sadly, I was not gifted so.)
My link to the tell was a bit misleading, however. Town being a little more carefree was a bad way to say it. Basically, it's as I said. It's true as I mentioned that townspeople tend to be a little more on the "reckless" side, but a better way to say it is that they
appear
to be more on the reckless side. With that into account, I'd say the statistic would actually be more like 70/30. By appearing to be slightly more reckless, I'm of course--in this case--referring to Hammering. The Caution is Reluctance. Refusal is
also
on the reckless side of things, if we want to go by my tell.
Again, I think it was misleading for me to have that link. Caution and Recklessness are
similar
, but not identical, to what I was talking about. So while the links between them are strong, the cluttered nature of the above is proof about how they are slightly different. Reluctance will not always appear to be Caution, and Caution will not always appear to be Reluctance. However, if it DOES appear that the Reluctance is Caution (especially for a poorly justified reason, like, "It'll make me look scummy to hammer!"), it looks FAR worse.

Get what I'm saying NOW? (I hope so. I just hit the 70 minute mark. >_<)
Quick checklist...
-Addressed the lynching town concern. (Bad wording on my part.)
-Reinforced it was your stated reason, Trendall, which made it so scummy. (Your stated reason in your response was that you'd prefer more discussion until close to deadline. That's valid. Not hammering because you were lurking and it'd look scummy?
...Less so.)
-Addressed the Caution/Reckless Tell as best as I could. (It was a bit misleading, but if the two are linked, it'd be APPEARS to be Cautious and APPEARS to be Reckless, instead of being Reckless or Cautious. I'm well aware that many players are naturally cautious, and an equal number are naturally reckless. However, their moves in a particular game can be telling, because something APPEARING to be Cautious when it's actually a well-thought out decision is bad, because it shows that you've thought it out but still are in the middle. APPEARING to be Reckless is--similarly--when well-thought out is fine, but probably more null than town.
Or something like that. It's a hard point to clarify.)

Was there any I missed?
Okay.
Hopefully
, that clarifies everything. Sorry for its length, but "clarity and conciseness" does not mix well with Mr. Mastin Unabridged. :P
(Seriously, I wouldn't be surprised if I was diagnosed with obsessive compulsive wall-posting disorder. :P)
Total posting time: 90 minutes/an hour and a half. I have no life. :P
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Post Post #227 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 12:35 pm

Post by Mastin »

What Beef says here is true--it's type 1 a in my player theory. That said, there are other reasons to suspect Beefster. (I've stated them in the past.)
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Post Post #228 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 12:37 pm

Post by Lateralus22 »

Content/Fluff ratio for Mastin is ridiculous. What are your actual reads again?
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Post Post #229 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 1:01 pm

Post by Mastin »

At least the fluff is all in one spot, and mostly out of view for those who don't want to see it. (Trust me, it wasn't always that way. It...was......interesting. :P)
I'm voting Beefster. Kayi is my secondary suspect. Neruz WAS behind her, but I'm thinking Jay is third. After that, it gets a bit more hard to tell. I've stated my reasons before; saying them again is a bit repetitive when it's not really that necessary, right now.
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Post Post #230 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 1:51 pm

Post by Jay »

Lateralus22 wrote:Post #204 Jay really needs to do something. What's your thoughts on everything going on?
Well, with the Beefster reaction fishing debate I kind of agree with Yenros that this doesn't seem like something Mafia would do when they are this close to being lynched, but for now I think this is just something to keep in mind, because I still find Beefster to be suspicious. You (Lateralus) made a good point when you mentioned that Beefster's reaction fishing seems like a half-assed attempt to do something, but then again, I'm not familiar with reaction fishing, since this is my first game, so I'm not sure if the results are usually different or if it is always difficult to get any information when you use it.

Did Mute ever answer Yenros's questions about why he finds Kayi and I suspicious? I didn't ask about that because I thought there was a chance Mute just agreed with everything that was already said about it. I asked about L22 because I don't think anyone was suspicious of him before that. Mute might not have answered them just because they were busy, though, and hasn't gotten a chance to check back yet, so I'll wait for an answer from them.
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Post Post #231 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 1:54 pm

Post by Jay »

EBWOP: There was another question that Yenros asked Mute, too, not just about why he finds Kayi and I suspicious.
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Post Post #232 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 1:57 pm

Post by Lateralus22 »

I'm still not even sure if what Beef is saying truly qualifies as reaction fishing >.>

If it is then like... everything in this game is reaction fishing.
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Post Post #233 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 2:04 pm

Post by Lateralus22 »

Jay, there is no mention of Neruz in your Iso at all. Why have you neglected mentioning him, and also what's your read on him?
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Post Post #234 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 2:23 pm

Post by Jay »

@L22: To be completely honest, I haven't seen a whole lot of scummy things from Neruz. It doesn't seem like he's done anything out of the ordinary in awhile, the only exception being when someone (I don't remember who) pointed out that he and Kayi seemed to be agreeing a lot, although it looks like that has been put aside by what Kayi said in one of her more recent posts about you bringing it up again. But, now that you mention it, I'll look into Neruz a bit more and read over his past posts to see if I should be paying closer attention to him.
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Post Post #235 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 4:33 pm

Post by Neruz »

I havn't done much lately because i havn't seen any reason to do anything. My original points against Beefster still stand and nothing i have seen has dissuaded me from them, given how close we are to the deadline i see no reason to not lynch Beefster.
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Post Post #236 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 5:06 pm

Post by Lateralus22 »

Wee, around 25 hours. Here's the thing, when I come back from school tomorrow I'll say an hourish amount of time for mafia. When I come back I'll hammer (for realz this time), if I don't, I expect someone else to hammer as no lynch is TERRIBLE and gives town the lowest statistical chance of winning.
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Post Post #237 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 5:31 pm

Post by Neruz »

A no lynch isn't
that
bad, but it is statistically a better idea to lynch at odd numbers than to not lynch.
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Post Post #238 (ISO) » Mon Nov 15, 2010 7:59 pm

Post by RedCoyote »

Prodding Mute



Vote Count 8

  • Beefster
    (Kayi - Mastin - Neruz - Mute)

    Mute
    (Jay - Beefster)

    Kayi
    (Lateralus22)

    Jay
    (Yenros)

    Not Voting
    (Trendall)

With nine alive, it takes five to lynch.
Current Deadline: Nov. 17th, 2010 at 12:00 AM (CST)
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Post Post #239 (ISO) » Tue Nov 16, 2010 6:26 am

Post by Trendall »

Okay, I'm hammering. There's not time to turn this bandwagon around now, and no lynching here sucks.

VOTE: Beefster
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Post Post #240 (ISO) » Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:24 am

Post by Mastin »

*sigh* I wish we had more time. The day might've been stagnating a little, but there was still a lot I feel we could've gained if we had that extra time. Ah, well.
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Post Post #241 (ISO) » Tue Nov 16, 2010 11:30 am

Post by Trendall »

V/LA from Friday till Sunday
, just in case day two starts during that time.
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Post Post #242 (ISO) » Tue Nov 16, 2010 1:16 pm

Post by Neruz »

Mastin wrote:*sigh* I wish we had more time. The day might've been stagnating a little, but there was still a lot I feel we could've gained if we had that extra time. Ah, well.
I doubt it, everyone has pretty much made their final decisions for the day. I can't see any ovbious outstanding issues that need to be discussed or gone over
again
. I think we've pretty much exhausted all reasonable discussion at this point.
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Post Post #243 (ISO) » Tue Nov 16, 2010 8:53 pm

Post by RedCoyote »

ØØOOOOOO
X


Beefster,
Townie
, has been lynched Day 1.

Final Vote Count

  • Beefster
    (Kayi - Mastin - Neruz - Mute - Trendall)

    Mute
    (Jay - Beefster)

    Kayi
    (Lateralus22)

    Jay
    (Yenros)

    Not Voting
    ()


With five votes, that's a lynch and an end to the first day.
Night 1 has a three day deadline and begins now.

New
Deadline: Nov. 20th, 2010 at 2:00 AM (CST)
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Post Post #244 (ISO) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 12:13 am

Post by RedCoyote »

ØØOOOOOO

No one died Night 1.

Vote Count 1

  • Not Voting
    (Jay - Kayi - Neruz - Mastin - Yenros - Mute - Trendall - Lateralus22)


With eight alive, it takes five to lynch.
New
Deadline: Dec. 11th, 2010 at 5:00 AM
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Post Post #245 (ISO) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 1:12 am

Post by Neruz »

Interesting.
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Post Post #246 (ISO) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 7:48 am

Post by Lateralus22 »

Vote; Kayi


Will try to reread the thread later.
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Post Post #247 (ISO) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 12:06 pm

Post by Kayi »

I don't know if I should laugh or cry about how screwed I am now.
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Post Post #248 (ISO) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 12:07 pm

Post by Kayi »

Hitting submit accidentally sucks.

I just want to add that the no kill definitely calls for many assumptions.
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Post Post #249 (ISO) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 2:26 pm

Post by Yenros »

I don't think we should assume anything, it goes into WIFOM trying to figure out why they may have chosen not to NK, or if the scum were blocked by a Doc.
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I am that which grips the heart in fright,
hearkens the night and silences the light.
A nightmare for some.
For others, as a saviour I come.
My hands, cold and bleak,
it's the warm hearts they seek

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