The Return to Liten (Game Over)

[MagnaofIllusion]

Review of Day 3 Data (yea I got tired of color coding ... sue me)

The three main wagons of the Day were CES, ApCakes and Twomz.

(3) apathyplusCUPCAKES: Thor665, ThAdmiral, LynchMePls
(1) Twomz: MagnaofIllusion
(1) Cogito Ergo Sum: Furry

(4) Cogito Ergo Sum: Furry, Almaster GM, Camn, Thor665
(1) apathyplusCUPCAKES: ThAdmiral
(1) Twomz: MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls

(4) Twomz: MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls, Thor665, AlmasterGM
(3) apathyplusCUPCAKES: ThAdmiral, Furry, Slaxx
(1) Cogito Ergo Sum: Camn

(6) Twomz: MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls, Thor665, AlmasterGM, apathyplusCUPCAKES, camn
(3) apathyplusCUPCAKES: ThAdmiral, Furry, Slaxx

(7) Twomz: MagnaofIllusion, LynchMePls, Thor665, AlmasterGM, apathyplusCUPCAKES, camn, Slaxx
(2) apathyplusCUPCAKES: ThAdmiral, Furry

Observations –

1. Thor appears on each wagon when it is at its peak during the day.
2. HackerHuck and CES both avoid all three of the wagons (two in CES’s case) during the day.
3. Players on the CES wagon (the only potential scum main wagon of the day) – Furry, AGM, camn and Thor. If CES is scum all four are likely Town if there are less than 3 scum remaining.

[Furry]

I can't tell if you're being a twit or I'm being a dense idiot again. I'd be pretty content to accept the latter if you could bother actually expanding on that answer.

Bit of both.

If my reads are right all remaining scum are in HH/CES/Thor

P.S. We shouldn't stop vigging or we'll never get to lynching the good players like Furry and MoI.

Stop being paranoid. That was an unusally good scum game from me.

Speaking of paranoid, I am a little on edge right now since my big picks really dont work together too well. If Thad stops shooting though it would return that paranoia to null a bit better even though the chance of him being a SK is already null... hmmrp.

At this point though I know CES is capable of some uber-bussing thanks to a recent game. Which may quell a little bit of the paranoia of him not working too well with some of my other high picks. The recent game was very different then my past CES-scum meta, and matches up closer to his play in this game then the old game.

I guess I could see a CES-HH pairing here. I wish Slaxx was around so I can figure out one key element before I argue massclaim or not.

Either way, if we just run with Camn, AGM, MoI and Thad-town, game is basically won since it leave just Slaxx-wildcard.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Welcome Chess …

Yes. I am happy to hold off until lylo if town thinks it best.

I’m for that at the moment. I do want to ask … how are we going to know when LYLO is again. Based on standard raw percentage ranges for Mafia games we can expect between 4 and 6 total scum in the game (yes, I’ve said this before). Based on two Mafia down that leaves 2 to 4 scum left. Setting aside the possibility you are a Serial Killer (which you skipping a shot should put most minds at rest) worst case we are in LYLO right now.

Anyone have any feel for what we are looking at? I’d say that the lack of raw power so far in flips pushes me to think 2 or 3 remaining scum over 4.

P.S. We shouldn't stop vigging or we'll never get to lynching the good players like Furry and MoI.

I note of course you don’t say lynching the scummy good players … just the good players.

At this point though I know CES is capable of some uber-bussing thanks to a recent game. Which may quell a little bit of the paranoia of him not working too well with some of my other high picks. The recent game was very different then my past CES-scum meta, and matches up closer to his play in this game then the old game.

Can you explain how CES would be uber-bussing so far? Are you referring to Day 2 with Feysal?

ISO of HackerHuck’s interactions with Square and Feysal

–

The data wagon was a weak day-1 wagon that built a lot of steam without a lot of content. There's probably scum there (waiting for the 'no duh' comment) and I don't see how Alamaster can honestly think that Square had inside info from it.

First mention by name or response to either know scum. Note the soft-defense of Square regarding a charge made by AGM that Square had inside knowledge.

ISO 8 further develops his ISO 6 and directly asks AGM further explain why he thought SquareOb had inside (scum) information.

Feysal - why don't you think that the mafia can make mistakes? It seems like they're more likely to make mistakes since they're often trying to fabricate cases.

Softball question to Feysal with no apparent scum-hunting motive.

Lynchmepls seems to be coasting along and although he's on the SO wagon, he got on early for really odd reasons. I don't see it as a bussing vote though, so he's probably town if Square flips scum.

I'm not done with Bowser, but I'm in agreement that Square's recent comments about Thad/Data are possible scumslips. UNVOTE: Boswer/Untrod
VOTE: Square Obscure

1. Notice the buddying to LMP, who we know is Town.
2. Speaking of odd reasoning for jumping on a wagon – exhibit A. He’s spent various early ISO arguing against SquareOb having inside information regarding Admiral and making a slip. Suddenly we have a 180 right here with no other reasoning as to why he’s voting for Square other than he’s the obv lynch for the day.

I also find his most recent post quite valid. Feysal needs to take a stand here. We've had two good wagons since Data and he's not bothered to commit one way or another to either one of them. Has he even voted?

Further buddying to LMP, this time on Feysal. This is what some others have called coaching. Note he doesn’t suggest Feysal was scummy for fence-sitting and never voting … just that he needs to take a stand.

That’s the end of Day 1. Note that he’s mentioned Feysal by name twice all day and then begins Day 2 with the following.

This did look pretty bad yesterday.

VOTE: Feysal

Lastly we have the following –

Yes, but there's also more than that. Look at his meta-defence of SO at the end of the day. I'm also willing to listen to Spyrex even after he was so wrong yesterday.

Reading through the lens of hindsight this looks like scum who knows Spyrex has some sort of role-based knowledge about Feysal.

ISO of CES’s interactions with Square and Feysal

–

Square, my use of role in the preceding post was meant in the sense of power. So a vig and an SK would be the same role with different alignment.

First mention of either known scum.

ISOs 8-10 develop his ‘interest’ in Square as scum – not having a good flavor claim. At 12 he hops on the bandwagon and puts Square at L-1.

That’s all for Day 1. No interactions with Feysal.

His first post of Day 2 –

Just ISOed Feysal. Seems like a good lead; absence of scumhunting and some post-lynch distancing.

Vote: Feysal

[b/]

Finally we have the following after Feysal throws in the towel –

A word of advice, Feysal: your last post on D1 really was scummy, and it's not that you said something and what you said and how you said it. In addition, your lack of posting today almost certainly did contribute to your lynch even if it went mostly unstated. You got caught; try to learn from it.

Possible veiled apology for bussing hard Day 2?

Conclusion

–

Both look very similar in terms of interactions. Square was voted by both for weak reasons and Feysal ignored Day 2 where both look like easy hops on the Bus-train.

I can’t say as I’m enamored with either ISO or the soft assertions both have been making.

VOTE: HackerHuck

You already feeling the heat today so I’m happy to turn it up.

For the record I would be more than happy to support CES as a lynch candidate as a flip of Scum from him will more or less clear four players (as I stated in 1000), including camn who still bears the scumminess of her predecessor IMO.

[camn]

You are so much more fluent than I am!
But it seems we agree totally.

As for lylo... There is no way to really reason it out without massclaim and a thadmiral flip.
I think we need Thad to hold of shooting one of these nights to prove he isn't compulsive.... On the other hand, if he stops shooting, there is no reason for the scum to kill him.
Good for him. Bad for our price of mind.

We can play it either way IMO....
Ideally we would see a scumlynch in Hacker and a scumvig of CES.... If you want one gal's opinion.

[camn]

Ps: dear cupcake's neighbor:
every moment that goes by without your claim adds to the likelihood that I will drill home your lynch if you get run up and forced to claim.

Just sayin.

Hold off if you have a good reason.
Or if you cant see why I want to know.
But think it over.

[Thor665]

P.S. We shouldn't stop vigging or we'll never get to lynching the good players like Furry and MoI.

Well...actually we'll just get to them quicker because scum will either kill them for being town or kill all the other town players and leave us wondering why they are still alive - so.

if Furry and MOI are scum, then they have already won this game. They are as town as the day is long.

What? No. Scum has never 'already won the game' until maybe lylo. Until then lots of stuff could happen.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I’m asking – if the Neighbor is in fact Mod-confirmed would you not consider that a useful power when publicly claimed and thus something that could tactically help Town?

Forgot to answer this earlier - yes. That's what my "Sure" was intended to convey.

if Furry and MOI are scum, then they have already won this game. They are as town as the day is long.

Nope. I find them suspicious and I know at least one other person who sees part of what I see.

Stop being paranoid. That was an unusally good scum game from me.

You're not looking as town either, so that's no problem. And unless I'm wrong about whose alt you are, we both know you're plenty good at this.

The recent game was very different then my past CES-scum meta, and matches up closer to his play in this game then the old game.

Is the old game the original Liten? Because I'm not sure why you'd expect my play to be similar to my first game back played under an alt.

Anyone have any feel for what we are looking at? I’d say that the lack of raw power so far in flips pushes me to think 2 or 3 remaining scum over 4.

I tend to think a 4-man scum group here. There isn't enough power to justify 5.

I note of course you don’t say lynching the scummy good players … just the good players.

This is what some others have called coaching. Note he doesn’t suggest Feysal was scummy for fence-sitting and never voting … just that he needs to take a stand.

Now this is why I call scum-posting. Non-committally pushing accusations that have been shown to be wrong. Scum have Daytalk!

Possible veiled apology for bussing hard Day 2?

Do you really think I'd post something like that in-thread? Besides, scum have daytalk.

Well...actually we'll just get to them quicker because scum will either kill them for being town or kill all the other town players and leave us wondering why they are still alive - so.

You go ahead and believe that; no one appears to have mentioned LMP dying before them. I have little faith in town applying that argument correctly.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Anyway, although I have no clue as to camn's argument for neighbor claiming nor do I particularly expect it to be a good one, I feel claiming here has no real downside and I'm aware of the effect it's had on my posts, specifically when it came to apc and HackerHuck.

So, yeah, I'm a neighbor (Flavour: fuck buddies, pretty much). Katsuki and I got a one-shot recruit which we used Night 1 to add HackerHuck to our perverted pairing.

[chesskid3]

Two questions: 1: Alignment confirmed or not?
2: if there's the extra shot, I don't mind being vigged, if this slot has been lurky all game. I'd obviously prefer not to get shot, but if it's going to be a problem, i'm cool with that. Going to read up in a few hours, and to avoid any confirmation bias, I didn't look at any flips.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Not alignment confirmed.

[chesskid3]

Ok, here goes. Thoughts as I read the game.

Post #27: SK breadcrumb spotted

Hallo~

I would not object,

SK

.

Post #43 Nobody Special ignores an RVS wagon. IIRC from my one game with him he doesn't like random RVS wagons though so uh why did I bother typing this.

NC post #46 "wouldn't it be funny if he was

actually

scum?" UGH. IGMEOY. Slip or horrible wording?

Page 3 - Nikanor is town.
Oh hey dana's getting wagoned. What a fucking surprise. There's scum in the first 4 votes on that wagon, waiting for a VC to see exactly who it is (dana is an easy wagon)
OH GOD THIS DANA WAGON. Dana is town, calling it now.

Erg, still have yet to read flavor.

Meanwhile,

Vote: Dana

P-edit: Try caps.

This is bad

Unvote Vote: danakillsu

Vote is for meta reasons. I do not trust dana on inch, and I can't discuss why yet. I've seen this before. Note: My other head is not aware of this meta. WHich brings up an interesting question:

@mod: Can I discuss ongoing games with my other head?

No, as you'd still be violating site policy of not discussing an ongoing game with a player that is not in said game. If both of you were in the same game, then it would be a different story.

--Wraith

So is this
Daniel is town based on sheer idiocy that no scum would ever possess, so that clears CES wheeee.

hahah post 76 by Nikanor "explain yo town read on me, foo" further solidifies the read. ahahaha.


Furry is town.

Post #91 from Nero Cain sucks too. This guy is probably scum.

WHERE THE HELL IS BOWSER ON THE PLAYERLIST WTF IS GOING ON

MoIwrote: (thanks) For future reference – the order of the Dana wagon

Nikanor(town), Thor, DanielofManyNumbers(town), SquareOb(scum), LMP(town), ApCakes(town), Furry(town), Bowser(WHO THE HELL IS THIS GUY)

FoS: Thor

Vote was for meta, but at the moment I don't see much beyond a bit of meta-relation, and meta alone isn't a good enough reason for a vote.

Unvote

That screeching sound is a horrible bail off a failwagon. Yup. Whee.


That's the first 5 pages.

CES is town
Furry is town
Thor is scum
Camn is scum

can I stop now?

[chesskid3]

if Furry and MOI are scum, then they have already won this game. They are as town as the day is long.

What? No. Scum has never 'already won the game' until maybe lylo. Until then lots of stuff could happen.

Yeah this meshes quite nicely with my page 5 scumbuddies read.
Camn's quote was very scummy, but Thor only disagrees with it, instead of calling it scummy. Hmmhah.

If you guys are the last 2 scum you can just surrender now, it's cool.

[Thor665]

Well, I'm not his scumbuddy, and also I actually don't consider that quote from him scummy - just silly. So my lack of 'calling' him on it is for that reason.

[camn]

Two questions: 1: Alignment confirmed or not?
2: if there's the extra shot, I don't mind being vigged, if this slot has been lurky all game. I'd obviously prefer not to get shot, but if it's going to be a problem, i'm cool with that. Going to read up in a few hours, and to avoid any confirmation bias, I didn't look at any flips.

^^total scumposting.

1) CES: Just so I get this straight, you, Apathy, and Hackerhuck have a QT that you can use at night?

2) Im leaving town this weekend.. so I might be kind of minimal.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yarr.

[chesskid3]

OH HEY OMGUS COOL

[HackerHuck]

I guess I could see a CES-HH pairing here.

I can understand why you were thinking that, but now you can understand why. I can confirm everything that CES said about the neighbour piece.

P.S. We shouldn't stop vigging or we'll never get to lynching the good players like Furry and MoI.

I note of course you don’t say lynching the scummy good players … just the good players.

Really? Are you trying to call this a scumtell?

ISO of HackerHuck’s interactions with Square and Feysal

–

The data wagon was a weak day-1 wagon that built a lot of steam without a lot of content. There's probably scum there (waiting for the 'no duh' comment) and I don't see how Alamaster can honestly think that Square had inside info from it.

First mention by name or response to either know scum. Note the soft-defense of Square regarding a charge made by AGM that Square had inside knowledge.

ISO 8 further develops his ISO 6 and directly asks AGM further explain why he thought SquareOb had inside (scum) information.

speaking of taking things out of context. Did you even bother to look at what caused Alamaster to say he thought SquareOb had inside info?

Lynchmepls seems to be coasting along and although he's on the SO wagon, he got on early for really odd reasons. I don't see it as a bussing vote though, so he's probably town if Square flips scum.

I'm not done with Bowser, but I'm in agreement that Square's recent comments about Thad/Data are possible scumslips. UNVOTE: Boswer/Untrod
VOTE: Square Obscure

1. Notice the buddying to LMP, who we know is Town.
2. Speaking of odd reasoning for jumping on a wagon – exhibit A. He’s spent various early ISO arguing against SquareOb having inside information regarding Admiral and making a slip. Suddenly we have a 180 right here with no other reasoning as to why he’s voting for Square other than he’s the obv lynch for the day.

Buddying? I had been voting for him and I say he does something scummy, but because I said that it's not a bussing comment it's considered buddying? Why would scum buddy with someone only to kill him off?

...That’s the end of Day 1. Note that he’s mentioned Feysal by name twice all day and then begins Day 2 with the following.

This did look pretty bad yesterday.

VOTE: Feysal

Lastly we have the following –

Yes, but there's also more than that. Look at his meta-defence of SO at the end of the day. I'm also willing to listen to Spyrex even after he was so wrong yesterday.

Reading through the lens of hindsight this looks like scum who knows Spyrex has some sort of role-based knowledge about Feysal.

If I were scum, I would have killed Spyrex night 1. He breadcrumbed cop pretty well on day 1. That's why I followed him on D2.

Spyrex isn't making any sense. If there's a way to confirm the BP townie without outing another power role, this chucklehead would like to hear it.

I never, ever said there wouldn't be other pieces for it to be done.

However, going "WELP" in this situation makes little sense but time is a factor so I dont see it swinging around now.

IF I WERE A GUY WHO HAD A GUN and I'm right about SO I'd done be shooting someone on that wagon (hint: Twomz).

[SaintKerrigan]

I think some prods are in order, but I don't feel like doing anything at 1:30 a.m., and I'm busy 9-5 today.

I'll get a prod check (and maybe a vote count, if needed) done this evening. Those of you who haven't posted in a while would be well advised to post before then. Just some friendly advice from your mod.

[ThAdmiral]

I'm still here, been busy lately. Will post asap.

[ThAdmiral]

if Furry and MOI are scum, then they have already won this game. They are as town as the day is long.

This is basically how I feel about the situation.

Yes. I am happy to hold off until lylo if town thinks it best.

I’m for that at the moment. I do want to ask … how are we going to know when LYLO is again. Based on standard raw percentage ranges for Mafia games we can expect between 4 and 6 total scum in the game (yes, I’ve said this before). Based on two Mafia down that leaves 2 to 4 scum left. Setting aside the possibility you are a Serial Killer (which you skipping a shot should put most minds at rest) worst case we are in LYLO right now.

Anyone have any feel for what we are looking at? I’d say that the lack of raw power so far in flips pushes me to think 2 or 3 remaining scum over 4.

I also reckon 2 to 3 is most likely.

will post more later...

[Furry]

unvote
Vote Thor

Im just going to stop WIFOMing myself out of him being scum at this point.

One thing that is bugging me is that I dont like the Thor/HH/CES pairing to much. Need to look into that.

[AlmasterGM]

Hey, just checking in to say I have finals until Tuesday. I can probably get one post in before then, and then activity will pick up dramatically afterwards. Sorry but that's just how it rolls.

[chesskid3]

If Thor is the play today, I am totally cool with that.

[SaintKerrigan]

Finally got around to doing the prod check, and the only person who needs prodding is MoI; since he tends to have a V/LA on the weekends I'm going to give him until Monday night before I prod him.

@ chesskid3: Bowser was a hydra for CSL and UntrodTripod. CSL left on Day 1, so UT chose to post under his own account for the rest of the game instead of the hydra's.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Prod that is not a prod received.

I've been very busy this weekend. Should have thoughts and responses tonight. Not that there is much that has happened since Thursday.