Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[Trilobite]

A cult Rezz works too. Not sure how I over looked that.

~Sotty.

[Trilobite]

Wouldn't scum have claimed that Rezz for town cred though?

In this game there seems to be a loop hole for everything. Looking strictly at Seacore's actions around Baby Spice and the grave rob plan, he still looks like cult to us.

~Sotty.

[Trilobite]

I tend to think cult would have claimed a sucessful res.

If cult wasn't the resser than the would know Furpants was, and the grave rob happened the night after... so...

[xvart]

Yeah, it doesn't really matter in the long run unless we try and nail down exactly what SpyreX did each night, which is fruitless. The point is SpyreX was supposed to get two insanities that night and he did; so if Seacore is also Cult then SpyreX got one from robbing grave and another one from doing Cultish stuff, like participating in the ritual or whatever.

Later tonight I'll go back and check the insanity charts and see who got Solist and when off the grave robbing duties and then cross that with Trilo's narrative of Seacore's proposals and switches to see if I can add anything else.

Preview edit:

Sotty - I said it back then but as soon as Benmage claimed to have killed SpyreX he (SpyreX) caught instant heat from a lot of people. My thinking was that Cult would have rezzed SpyreX with the thought that whoever did it (if successful) could justify it based on their reads and what they had said so far in the game. But when all hell broke loose it probably became to risky to claim that rez.

You are forgetting the part where you could have told a Cult buddy to rez you and then decided not to have them claim when the heat came almost immediately after the stalk claim came forward.

And for the context this all happened before/around this post.

[Seacore]

I've read over all this very quickly because it's the weekend and I'm at my parents place with shit to do.

However, at a glance, Trilo has some good points. DGB was warded, but combined with Spyrex, I know it looks bad. As far as insanity points go, it was neutral, spyrex gained a point for warding rather than grave robbing. Benmage's counter about easy dust if we were both scum is strong.

As for the argument about whether BS or DGB did the robbing, I didn't closely read trilo's postings there, or go back and read over the actual posts where it happened, but my memory is that, before the final vote as to which method we would use, I had substituted the names in. The reason I did that then, is that it was the 'natural' way the votes were sitting. The only reason BS got up at the end was that people had jumped off DGB to either vote for MoI to finish the day or to try and find an alternative because they didn't want to lynch MoI.

But whatever. I am more than happy to do the kill. I await some kind of final declaration and will remove myself from the discussion about whether it's me or Iec.

[hitogoroshi]

Still have shit for time. Sorry cats and kittens, but reference waits until Sunday from me. Packing/family dinner tonight, and tomorrow I take the drive from Minnesota to Nebraska and hurredly unpack before competing in a League of Legends tourney game.

My rapid fire thoughts:

• I really want Seacore to do the kill.
  
• I would like to test for suicidies after new reference is go and all our ducks are in a row.
  
• We should get some discussion on insanity thresholds. Here for your reference is Feysal's list:
  
  
  Spoiler: Feysals Threshold List

  Twitchy - [1]
  Taboo - [2]
  Compulsion - [2]
  Obsession - [2]
  Solist - [2]
  Hallucination - [4]
  Mutilation - [6]
  Marked - [7]
  Distraction - [8]
  Paranoid - [9]
  Sadism - [10]
  Denial - [10]
  Suicidal - [X]
  Necrophilia - [X]
  
  
  anyone have any proposed changes?
  
  
• I'm totally happy with a TNM lynch. VPB is an excellent 'stalk' target if you want your target to be rezzed by a townie. Greater ritual = you have a bloody townie (a real townie, too, not a scum faking a rez!) saying they rezzed, and VPB dies of a ritual kill. TNM looks confirmed when he isn't. It's a strong play for scum-TNM to make, and a VPB stalk makes very little sense from a townie perspective. That being said, my TNM vote waits until *after* we sniff out the suicidies.

[Seacore]

I've had a think, and I'm not sure about lynching TNM

If TNM is scum, he cannot murder VPB. Which means scum have to do it. Hito raises a good point about the rezzing, but there's always the chances that multiple rezzes hit VPB anyway.

If TNM is town, he might murder VPB (who may or may not be scum) and he'll be confirmed.

The real point, however, is we can kill TNM tomorrow after he's had a chance to confirm himself.

Do I think he'll be confirmed? No, I think he's scum. But it can wait a single day when we have an awesome lynch candidate in Plum.

Depending on how we're going for time after everything gets organised, I'm okay with some suicidal testing.
Iec and I should be tested, with the other standing in ready to kill AV should one of us die from having suicidal.
TNM should be tested.

[hitogoroshi]

Nico should be the first one we test for suicidal.

[AurorusVox]

Seacore killing me is good. I'm still happy with my TNM vote but I wouldn't mind seeing Plum go down today if we're not taking out TNM. There is NO point in asking or hoping for town to rez VPB, because that entirely fucks with programme of confirming and you WILL end up in WIFOMtown. If we sanction town rezzes on VPB, it allows far too much "what if". If you don't lynch TNM today it has to be at the cost of VPB.

[Seacore]

I think I'm with VP, I find it really hard to believe that scum would skip a kill just to spare Nico, but it's definitely worth the test.

Suicidal is going to be an absolute arse to test. I'd personally prefer both TNM and Plum on every bandwagon early, so they can't jump in to kill somebody.

[xvart]

Okay. So nobody had Solist for the N2 grave robbing, so no Cult maneuvering could have been done there. The only two people that had Solist for the N3 grave robbing were Kunkstar and VP Balter, neither of which were in position to be manipulated into grave robbing.

[Trilobite]

Vote: Plum

If Seacore can be proven by making a kill tonight, so can TNM. The exact same logic applies. Also cult won't be able to set both Seacore and TNM up at the same time. If both players are town I like the odds of actually getting a solid confirm on at least one.

~Sotty.

[Triglav]

CD6

Username:

Triglav

Did you Hear Noise?

No

Did you Ward? If so, who?

No

Did you gain Insanities, and if so, which ones and from what actions?

No

List all of the insanities you currently have:

Twitchy

Did you

successfully

resuscitate? If so, who?

No

Were you murdered?

No

Did you Commune or Investigate? If so, who, and what result?

No

Are you bloody?

No

Did you Stalk? If so, on who, and was it successful?

No

Twitch?

No

Vote: Triglav

Unvote, Vote: Benmage

Unvote, Vote: Xvart

Unvote, Vote: Benmage

Unvote, Vote: Xvart

Unvote

Hullo.

Apologies, am very late, my bad (would say our bad but this head is sorta now only head, so...their bad )
Need to read up, am back at end of Day 5.
Should manage this tomorrow.
Content no later than Sunday or may I say Hastur ten times fast.
Cthulu reference is tech.
This should be last true failure of this head to be on top of game.

[hitogoroshi]

Hey Triglav, looking at your low insanity count made me think back to your CD*'s. Why have you only communed once?

[Seacore]

I agree with Trilo, scum can't screw up all our confirm kills, lets lynch Plum

[hitogoroshi]

(disclaimer, this is me pecking at the game in bits while packing, so maybe not as coherent as usual, but I feel this needs to be said before I go)

I've been liking Trilo most of this game but I've been thinking about it and their recent posts feel slimy to me. So we have VPB, the town read Trilo would jump off a cliff for, and TNM, who allegedly stalked him for some garbage reason. Trilo hasn't said anything about this, except that scum can't "set both up at the same time."

Let us go through my list of problems:

• If VPB is, in your mind, confirmed town or nearly such, why are you okay with TNM killing him? Even if TNM really is town and really will be murdering (doubtful), that's still a shit trade. VP has been the strongest, most consistently helpful player here and trading him to confirm TNM is terribad. TNM stalked off the list and should be eating a reference lynch ANYWAY. (I realize in my rapid-fire-thoughts I forgot to mention that reference enforcement and love of VP are two OTHER reasons I want TNM lynched. Those are obvious, I was most concerned with getting the not-obvious rez idea out. Rest assured I do still want to enforce the claims made in my reference.)
  
  
  
• And SPEAKING of that not-obvious rez idea I put out, hey! Look what happens if TNM is scum and VPB is town! VP dies to ritual and we lose an awesome player, and TNM can claim he murdered. If there's a rezzer, they'll confirm it and we don't know if it was a TNM murder or greater ritual giving the first kill. If there is no rezzer, is TNM lying about murdering or did cult rez to screw with us? We know fuckin NOTHING in either of those scenarios, and so I think it's pretty safe to say we will be in one of those scenarios. It's worth it if and only if you think there's a strong chance VP is scum, but I don't think that, and according to what you've said in thread you don't either. So why? Why is it worth losing VP to learn absolutely nothing?
  
  
  
• You're about to say "because then cult can't screw with Seacore's kill!". Yes they can. The only thing they can't do is ritual kill his target. They still could resuscitate or not. And anyway...
  
  
  
• You're forgetting about the Andrius kill, assuming you're taking the position of "more than one planned murder makes it impossible for cult to screw with them all." And anyway...
  
  
  
• If Seacore DID pull off his murder successfully, well, that's not so huge. He looked pretty townie anyway! It was only YOUR giant case thing that suddenly made Seacore look like the better choice instead of Iece. So you've got one guy you specifically advocated should stalk because he looks scummy, and you've got someone else stalking your strongest town read, and you're leaving it alone because
  

  If both players are town I like the odds of actually getting a solid confirm on at least one.

  ...but you don't think both players are town, do you? That wouldn't make any sense with what you've stated. So why is THAT the scenario you're planning around? Because if one of them is scum this is just a recipe to get VP killed without really answering our questions.

One thing I've deliberately avoided doing is drawing conclusions from all this. Spitballing, I can see quite a few things that'd explain this position - keeping scum-Iece out of the limelight by swapping him with town-Seacore, ensuring townie rezs get drawn off of VP (with the caveat that exactly one rogue townie rez or scum rez would help bolster scum-TNM's claim of murdering), getting a mislynch on town-Plum today, keeping us off of scum-Nico (yeah, there's the Seacore rez, but Nico is still looking awful from where I sit), etc. I don't want to rush a conclusion when I'm already up far later than I should be given the trip ahead of me. But I've seen this and I have to call it.

@VP and Ben: You guys are the only super strong town reads I have left. Am I tinfoiling here? Am I wrong about this slime? I mean I can accept the possibility - I was wrong about Spy. But TNM stalked off-list and we're very delicately dancing around it and I'm seeing all sorts of little bits that don't add up. And if I'm not wrong, what do you think this means? What's the reasoning behind this weird discrepancies?

And for that matter,

@TNM: Why the HELL did you stalk VP? You kind of gave an answer before, but not the kind of answer I was looking for. Let me start you off: "I decided to stalk VP, despite being explicitly forbidden from doing such, because..."

[VasudeVa]

Vote: Plum

I'll read these after my cousin's wedding. For now, I am only interested in dead Plum.

[AurorusVox]

I wish Seacore and Iec hadn't both stalked me. CONTENTIOUS ISSUE.

Hito's Wall-O-Counter seems to have less holes in that Trilo's Wall-O but now I want to see Trilo's Wall-O-Counter-Counter.

SO LONG AS WE CLARIFY WHO IS STALKING BEFORE NIGHT.

If they fluff and say "Oh no I stalked it" when they weren't the guy to do so lynchlynchlynch.

[VP Baltar]

@VP and Ben: You guys are the only super strong town reads I have left. Am I tinfoiling here? Am I wrong about this slime? I mean I can accept the possibility - I was wrong about Spy. But TNM stalked off-list and we're very delicately dancing around it and I'm seeing all sorts of little bits that don't add up. And if I'm not wrong, what do you think this means? What's the reasoning behind this weird discrepancies?

I don't think you're necessarily wrong. That's why I was asking him his reason for stalking me earlier. What I fail to understand is how he thought it would be a successful murder to confirm himself considering, regardless of what he thinks of my alignment, several people have rezzed me this game. If our situations were reversed and he was being rezzed a lot, I wouldn't bother trying to stalk him because it's essentially doomed to failure. Now, I guess he can make the argument that if there is an attempt on my life and no one claims it the next day, he still gets confirmed. If there was a ritual kill and that happened with someone I see as protown corroborating the rezz on me it could make him look town. On the other hand, that's a lot of things needing to come together (who's to say I wouldn't be ritualed tonight) to work properly and I can see several other stalk targets that NEED to die and would have a much higher chance at success.

I'm still debating the TNM lynch. I thought he was scummy before today and I don't find his dilly-dallying earlier in the day particularly endearing. I question if scum would be ballsy enough to take on a player that is generally seen as pretty town through his actions (though unconfirmed). In some ways its exactly what scum don't want, to draw attention to themselves and get into a drawn out debate on an unpopular issue. On the other hand, I think Benmage's stalk plan might have the scum scrambling a bit and requiring them to make big moves to stay alive.

[AurorusVox]

RE: the TNM lynch, I think TNM was hoping you'd get rez'd, and in fact it looks like he's still even counting on it. Which doesn't make any sense from his "keep it a secret perspective" or from his "confirm myself" perspective.

But hey, if you Rez, rezzes on you fail, right? So if we're letting TNM kill VPB, we should have Hito kill Andy and VPB rez someone. Then the cult can't screw with it and if it's ritual, TNM was bullshitting.

So Seacore kills Vox who rezzes Seacore = confirmed inv. or cult
And Hito kills Andy who rezzes Hito = confirmed inv. or cult
And TNM kills VPB who rezzes TNM = confirmed inv. or cult

We'll either have three confirmed townies or three confirmed cult or a mixture of all three. Why were we even worrying about cultWIFOM?

I think the only real issues are whether (a) we let Seacore or Iec kill me;
and (b) whether we'd prefer 3 confirmed roles with TNM alive instead of VPB (i.e. lynch Plum today), or only 2 confirms but keep VPB alive (i.e. lynch TNM today). Though I hate to say it, killing VPB for 3 confirms either way is probably the better option.

[AurorusVox]

The only question would then be, if the person's alive, did they go against the rules and not rez (i.e. got cult to rez them) or was the stalker fake. Ones' flip will indicate the other's. Game. Set. Match.

[AurorusVox]

^Whilst eating a hotdog I realised this plan doesn't work if the cult were ballsy and claimed to stalk a fellow cultbuddy since if we flipped one we'd assume the other was town. I don't think that's too likely but it's worth baring in mind. Although we'd still get at least one dead cult which is better than none.

[Trilobite]

I've been liking Trilo most of this game but I've been thinking about it and their recent posts feel slimy to me. So we have VPB, the town read Trilo would jump off a cliff for, and TNM, who allegedly stalked him for some garbage reason. Trilo hasn't said anything about this, except that scum can't "set both up at the same time."

We have said little because I spend hours on all those Seacore posts. They took forever. When TNM announced a stalk on someone he thought wouldn't fail, I thought he might have stalked us. We have unexplained noise from last night, were on the stalk list while considered to be pretty town.

Since then I have said his stalk claim of VP has made me unhappy, but that we clearly think he must go though it ala Seacore. What more do you want in the way of comments?

We are not willing to trade VP, he should be rezzed. That is pretty obvious seeing as we have a rezz kit. If VP is ritualized, TNM dies. If AV is ritualized, Seacore dies.

You're forgetting about the Andrius kill, assuming you're taking the position of "more than one planned murder makes it impossible for cult to screw with them all." And anyway...

I haven't forgotten about the Andrius kill. I just don't think VP needs that kill to prove he is town.

I can see your paranoia but we have been clear all along in wanting TNM to kill to clear himself. Don't think I wasn't tempted to say “fuck it” when he came out it was VP, but he has to kill. It's that simple. Just like Seacore has to kill.

I have had VP has a town read ever since he has been caught up. His commune of this slot in paraticular made me a believer. Then I re-read day two and he kept banging on about Baby Spice double robbing. VP doesn't need a kill to prove he is town to me, I'm already 99% clear he is there.

On the other hand Seacore is dirty from day two and the failed El G grave rob. TNM is dirty from mostly his lurking and now his poor stalk target choice.

Looks pretty clear to me.

AV, I don't think VP should be rezzing tonight period. It has also been noted how you swing from case to case as they are posted. Don't you have a real opinion of your own?

~Sotty

[Trilobite]

I forgot to mention that I would prefer Hito to kill Andrius over VP at this point.

[AurorusVox]

Well both you and Hito have given compelling arguments. My opinion was that Iec should kill because of reasons I stated earlier. Then you countered with what looked like a reasonable argument for Seacore to do it. And now Hito has poked holes in your argument.

---

I don't understand how you can say rez VPB and if VPB is ritualized kill TNM. If VPB is rezzed, then OF COURSE cult will ritual him. Rezzing VPB is just asking for trouble. The only way to save him is to say triple rez him. And if we say that cult won't even try to kill him, TNM gets screwed, and we waste four night actions. Saying rez VPB is like saying "ah, go on, make all our worst fears come true, cult."

The options have to be: lynch TNM today OR do not rez VPB.