Newbie 1043 Game Over

[Terrion]

Charlie's still fairly high on my list, but I have the same top suspect (LlamaFluff), as my vote clarifies. Furthermore, this supports a theory of mine: If neither LlamaFluff nor hiphop is Mafia, one of them would have likely been shot and the other left alive for future WIFOM. However, if one of the two is Mafia, they might leave the other alive just to combat such an accusation. It's just another factor supporting my case on LlamaFluff, although it could be turned against hiphop if LlamaFluff is town.

Which really throws me for a loop. How? What? and why? Though with the way this came out, it would seem that if one of you is scum, then both are scum, yet i don't think neither one of you are scum. Forget the theory and roles, but how did you guys seem to draw the same conclusion? And how does it even make sense?

Charlie's basically right about it. But regarding the WIFOM situation that Charlie is bringing up, I was talking about the Night 1 kill; none of the future kills matter here. If I were to say this before Night 1, it would have been a lot worse. And I know people say night kills should not be analyzed because they're saturated with WIFOM, but it is due to the fact that people won't analyze them that using WIFOM is not a common tactic.

However, coming to the same conclusion is not inherently indicative of the same alignment. It can be, but plenty of times will Mafia and Town have the same ideas.

Well, here's the thing: Hammering somebody is already seen as a suspicious action, no matter when, where, or under what conditions. Even if a hammer is pro-town, people will sometimes take suspicion for it (I say so because I've read a game where somebody nearly got lynched with only the decision to hammer a Mafia Goon, this game was completed a while ago). I can't say that not hammering is a town tell or a scumtell.

I don't agree with you. A hammer was essential in this case to avoid a no-lynch D1, which everyone will tell you is bad for Town.

It is pro-town to hammer here, but people will attract suspicion by hammering even when it is pro-town. It doesn't make sense, but it happens.

I would think that the above is a soft claim(which is really bad at this point), but then Terrion posts this

hiphop, please explain to me why would you publicly announce what you thought was a soft-claim? Because if I thought I found a soft-claim, I would keep mum about it.

Okay, I noticed it, hiphop noticed it, I really don't think the Mafia missed it. Especially now, when they'll be searching for a softclaim because of you and hiphop mentioning it. Not to mention that a softclaim is a rather useful opportunity for Mafia players because, if you are Mafia, you could just test people's reactions when you come around to a hard claim instead. Kind of like testing the waters and seeing what will stick.

I'm not keeping silent about these things because they've all been brought up already, and I really don't think anyone's going to skip past them.

In short, hiphop, I think that either you or LlamaFluff is Mafia, and only one. I strongly believe that it is LlamaFluff, but I must prepare for the possibility that I am wrong, in which case I will have my eye on you.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.02

(unchanged)

LlamaFluff - 2 - Terrion, hiphop
Rikka - 2 - Deer, LlamaFluff

Not Voting: Rikka, Guilherme, Charlie

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: February 2.

[Guilherme]

@Llama
I don't think Charlie is "100% town". Since, as it has been pointed out, not hammering isn't the most reliable tell, so I can't place him any near the bottom of my suspicion list, but he did break my expectations, getting me to see him in another light. I'd say it's more like a vote of trust on him.

@Charlie
To be clear: I changed my mind about you since my last vote and would like to know why you didn't hammer me.

@hiphop
That post (at least the part you mention) is actually a result of experience.
On my last post at Day 1, the one where I voted for Charlie, I said I wasn't afraid to vote for him knowing that would raise suspicion (as other already had mentioned) and even attacked the fact that he was being very defensive.
Turns out that, to my susprise, I almost got mislynched due to that. So I won't make the same mistake twice. It's not that I'm afraid to receive a few votes, but you'd accuse someone of being scum with a weak case and knowing (from past experiences) that it might mean rope to you?

[LlamaFluff]

yet, you still said that guil was in a tiebreaker with rikka. Meaning you did think they were equally scummy. No, ifs, ands, or buts about it. And it doesn't matter that it was deadline either. If guil wasn't that scummy you would have never posted that quote.

Or are you denying the fact that you intentionally made up a reason for you to switch your vote to guil?

Yeah im going to go ahead and deny that. I take it this is you saying that you also think Rikka is scum? What you are attempting to apply here only works if im scum with Rikka and Guli is town.

I was trying to figure out if it was worth it to stay on Rikka where I was or to move to Guli. I figured that the best chance of not having a Charlie lynch was to have a Guli one. While Guli is not a awesome town read, he is not my top scum pick.

What has been written, is written. Whether or not you feel differently now, what you said then, i have to believe.

And no, actually it is you and guil.

Llama, where does the hiphop suspicion come from? You have no previous mention of it.

Obviously he is OMGUSing. Look at Terrion, no suspicion until he voted him. Same goes for me. Who would have thought that?

So first I push my newbie partner most of day one, find a reason to call him town, and then try and make him be the deadline lynch? Also its not OMGUS if I actually have something to back it up with, which I have said a few times why my picks are where they are. At least of you/Terrion/Deer are scum, I would bet the game on it. I could see a Guli/Deer pairing, but I think the Terrion/Rikka pair is the right one.

Llama, why do you think charlie is town. You've talked about him showing you reliable town tells, but you don't get specific.

Heh, apart from this being ironic since you say that Charlie is town in this same post...

Charlie is town mostly due to his play not being too concerned about survival. At a few points he seemed more wanting to just get what he wanted out there as opposed to doing that while being sure to look town. His iso 21 is textbook town in its own, near lynch, not trying to just look for another wagon. That and the fact that no one works well as a Charlie partner.

[Charlie]

I find that to be quite strange.

[Charlie]

Enough of this low activity levels.
hiphop and LlamaFluff: which one of you are Mafia?

VOTE: LlamaFluff

[LlamaFluff]

Not me?

Im pretty sure all scum is in Rikka/Terrion/hiphop with a very slight chance of Guli, although he would have to be with Terrion.

[Deer]

Rikka's totally sliding by. This can't happen.

[Terrion]

I wasn't going to say it, but I really don't think Rikka is Mafia anymore. Obviously this isn't something I can say positively, and I don't want to make a long case on why (unless it gets to the point that Rikka is near-lynch), but I'll give the short version for now. The posts don't show great caution or bandwagoning, and they also show a towntell I'd prefer to avoid mentioning but trust greatly (if I do, it'll only help the Mafia adopt it). As a result, while I haven't necessarily eliminated him, he's not my first choice for lynch by far...

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. As Charlie has cast the 3rd vote on LlamaFluff, we should acknowledge the fact that he's at L-1 and decide on claiming.

[LlamaFluff]

I know im at L-1, but im not going to claim unless someone who isnt voting me says they will if I dont claim.

[hiphop]

Charlie's basically right about it. But regarding the WIFOM situation that Charlie is bringing up, I was talking about the Night 1 kill; none of the future kills matter here. If I were to say this before Night 1, it would have been a lot worse. And I know people say night kills should not be analyzed because they're saturated with WIFOM, but it is due to the fact that people won't analyze them that using WIFOM is not a common tactic.

Is this some way for you to explain how me being town makes llama scum? Because I am not seeing it.

In fact

unvote

I would rather not vote with someone who is throwing weak reasons, and made up theories, to get someone lynched. Looks more like leeching on. And both people on that wagon are doing just that.

@hiphop
That post (at least the part you mention) is actually a result of experience.
On my last post at Day 1, the one where I voted for Charlie, I said I wasn't afraid to vote for him knowing that would raise suspicion (as other already had mentioned) and even attacked the fact that he was being very defensive.
Turns out that, to my susprise, I almost got mislynched due to that. So I won't make the same mistake twice. It's not that I'm afraid to receive a few votes, but you'd accuse someone of being scum with a weak case and knowing (from past experiences) that it might mean rope to you?

Have you seen my record? My sig. 17 games. And i have only been shot twice. What does that say about the relationship between my neck and the rope? I don't believe that a townie should be afraid to die, as long as they did their best to help find scum.

Let me ask you something. Have you ever played face to face mafia? The very first time I played mafia, was face to face.(I seemed to have been lynched in just about every game then too) The lynch happens in like 15 minutes max. People vote for who they think is scum. It is that simple. If you truly believe that someone is scum, then the idea is to get them lynched. And the best way to do that, is to vote for them. I doubt you would convince anyone that a particular person is scum, unless your vote is actually on them. Now of course if you just vote without a reason, I will bug you. Or if your reason is crappy, then i will bug you. However if you plan on sitting back and waiting for deadline to hit, so that nobody can bug you on the person who you ended up choosing to vote for, then I will vote you.

vote guilherme

So it is in your best interest to put you neck out there(no pun intended), place a vote, and explain the best you can as to why that person is more likely scum than any of the other 5 people that are playing this game. Tell me guil, what stops scum from doing exactly what you are doing? Also do you understand the theory put out by charlie and Terrion? You know the part where if i am town, then llama is scum? Do you think that it might be about the fact that a newbie was killed, and not an experienced player?
What is the possibility of scum throwing that out there so that, they can push a weak case? Though I may be rambling because Charlie is an SE too, and deer is more experienced than I am. So perhaps that is not it, because otherwise as good as Terrion showed he was day 1, I doubt he would try to throw something as weak as that out to the wolves.

And Charlie I mentioned the soft-claim, because if you are going to soft-claim, then you might as well as tell everyone that it is one. I doubt very few people missed it. And if you really believe in Wifom, do you honestly believe that I as scum, would deliberately throw that out there, knowing that I might get people's attention, instead of keeping quiet and killing you tonight. And for another reason, i despise soft claims. Just a waste of words. There is no purpose.

And yes llama, I believe you would do that to your newbie partner.

[Charlie]

And Charlie I mentioned the soft-claim, because if you are going to soft-claim, then you might as well as tell everyone that it is one. I doubt very few people missed it.

I doubt your doubt.

And if you really believe in Wifom, do you honestly believe that I as scum, would deliberately throw that out there, knowing that I might get people's attention, instead of keeping quiet and killing you tonight.

Well maybe that's what you want me to think. No wait, maybe that's what you want me to think...no wait.

And for another reason, i despise soft claims. Just a waste of words. There is no purpose.

I realize that you double space bar your sentences. And missed the capitalization of that last "i".

UNVOTE: LlamaFluff
VOTE: hiphop

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 2.03

Rikka - 2 - Deer, LlamaFluff
LlamaFluff - 1 - Terrion
Guilherme - 1 - hiphop
hiphop - 1 - Charlie

Not Voting: Rikka, Guilherme

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: February 2.

[Guilherme]

Okay, I got it hiphop. If I believe someone is a Mafioso then I should vote for him/her and market my case to everyone.

But my point is that I'm not voting for Charlie because I'm afraid to get lynched by doing so, I'm not voting for him because he's no longer by best pick for scum and I'd only do so if I were given the option to make a stronger case than I did on last night.
My comment about getting lynched by voting on him was my second reason on why I'm not voting for him right now.

Now, without Charlie, my current first pick for mafia would be you.

Vote: hiphop

I find our current WIFOM discussion a loss of time, seeing that we are still on Day 2 and with a good amount of days left for the deadline. Pretty much because we could be (at this point) scum hunting instead of applying a logic that requires us to confirm someone as a townie to then nail the scum.
You're not the only one doing it, but you're the only who tried to drag me into it while I was analyzing Llama's posts (without WIFOM). Quite frankly I'm still bugged by him since he partners me with every other wifom-suspect he has (except you), but I don't see how trying to make me play wifom on the night kill would actually be something a townie would do.

Still, I'm not the only who has played defensively, neither the only person not voting, so why I'm the one who's sitting back?

[Terrion]

Charlie's basically right about it. But regarding the WIFOM situation that Charlie is bringing up, I was talking about the Night 1 kill; none of the future kills matter here. If I were to say this before Night 1, it would have been a lot worse. And I know people say night kills should not be analyzed because they're saturated with WIFOM, but it is due to the fact that people won't analyze them that using WIFOM is not a common tactic.

Is this some way for you to explain how me being town makes llama scum? Because I am not seeing it.

In fact

unvote

I would rather not vote with someone who is throwing weak reasons, and made up theories, to get someone lynched. Looks more like leeching on. And both people on that wagon are doing just that.

I don't see how a person can leech on to himself. And for that matter, such a choice of words as "leeching on" seems like an attempt to manipulate the wagon without actual reasoning behind the full-reversal. I'd rather simply abandon the NK discussion right now, but I haven't necessarily forgotten it. If you must know, then ask; it's really simpler than you think. But the important part is that you completely ignore the fact that I'm not using the choice of NK as the pillar of my case, just a minor support. Do you recall?

Meanwhile, I had been doing a read in isolation on LlamaFluff. There is still that one post I had previously dissected, in which I note that LlamaFluff is the third to jump on the Rikka bandwagon for dubious reasons (the misquotes that I had earlier perceived). However, that was far more minor than what I later found: LlamaFluff explicitly stating that he read Guilherme as town sandwiched in between posts of suspicion. This post, specifically.

That's where I actually state my case on LlamaFluff. The NK simply supports what has already been established some time ago.

And Charlie I mentioned the soft-claim, because if you are going to soft-claim, then you might as well as tell everyone that it is one. I doubt very few people missed it. And if you really believe in Wifom, do you honestly believe that I as scum, would deliberately throw that out there, knowing that I might get people's attention, instead of keeping quiet and killing you tonight. And for another reason, i despise soft claims. Just a waste of words. There is no purpose.

Now this, on the other hand, I actually agree with. If the Mafia missed it a little while ago, they didn't miss it after hiphop mentioned it the first time. And then you responded to them. And then it was brought up multiple times after. Softclaims are opportunistic ways to drop power role tells without it being a surprise when you're not killed the very next night and avoid getting into the situation of a counterclaim and a one-half chance of being Mafia.

Anyways, my vote's staying on LlamaFluff. I disagree with hiphop's ideas, but for now, I don't actually find his thoughts suspicious in any manner.

[Deer]

Yeah I don't really see the hiphop thing either. Llama's probably a #2 at this point but still behind Rikka IMO.

[LlamaFluff]

@Terrion - Are you ever going to respond to anything I have put up? You just have let others pick up the baton after I started arguing.

[Terrion]

The fact is, I'm not bothering getting into an argument with somebody who I'm also voting on actual heavy suspicion. You don't really have anything to clarify that you haven't already given an explanation of some kind for, and I think I've made it succinctly clear why I'm voting for you. Beyond that, I'd prefer to keep arguing your suspicions once I'm at least slightly less suspicious of who they come from. Furthermore, you've stated your reads of several other players, and I've stated my reads of the same players as well.

Oh, but there is the issue of Rikka, who hasn't posted in 5 days, already far exceeding the normal 72 hours.

I request that the moderator prods Rikka.

[Rikka]

I have to disagree with you guys bringing up the soft claim. Speaking from my experience last game newbies can miss very obvious claims like that until someone says something to make them look for them.

deer, if you want me lynched, you might want to start arguing for it again instead of just casually mentioning it every once in a while.

I think one of either hiphop or llama will turn up scum, and for now I'm going with VOTE: llamafluff. And sorry for the lack of activity, the week flew by.

[Charlie]

But my point is that I'm not voting for Charlie because I'm afraid to get lynched by doing so, I'm not voting for him because he's no longer by best pick for scum and I'd only do so if I were given the option to make a stronger case than I did on last night.
My comment about getting lynched by voting on him was my second reason on why I'm not voting for him right now.

Guts. You lack them.

Now this, on the other hand, I actually agree with. If the Mafia missed it a little while ago, they didn't miss it after hiphop mentioned it the first time. And then you responded to them. And then it was brought up multiple times after. Softclaims are opportunistic ways to drop power role tells without it being a surprise when you're not killed the very next night and avoid getting into the situation of a counterclaim and a one-half chance of being Mafia.

@hiphop: Yeah, I thought the above was pretty much it. I mean, that's what I thought what softclaims were all about.
I'm in no way confirming nor denying that I've made a softclaim.

Yeah I don't really see the hiphop thing either. Llama's probably a #2 at this point but still behind Rikka IMO.

I've got a feeling that if it ever comes to LyLo, I'd lynch you. I'm not even sure why, but that's my honest opinion right now.

I have to disagree with you guys bringing up the soft claim. Speaking from my experience last game newbies can miss very obvious claims like that until someone says something to make them look for them.

deer, if you want me lynched, you might want to start arguing for it again instead of just casually mentioning it every once in a while.

I think one of either hiphop or llama will turn up scum, and for now I'm going with VOTE: llamafluff. And sorry for the lack of activity, the week flew by.

Rikka, seriously? You'll need to do better than that, just because.

-----------

Bottom line is, hiphop is so called "town leader". I expect the same level of play on D1 from him on D2 if he is Town. So, waiting on hiphop to say something provocative.

LlamaFluff...seems to think I'm town by non-standard means. OK, I suppose. I really don't know what to say.

[Guilherme]

@Charlie
Erm. Not really, since I did mention (more than once) that I'm not voting for you because I’m lacking the guts do to so. If anything, I’m cautious at doing it, but that has far better motives than keeping my own neck safe.

@Rikka
You do have a point on deer, but that vote doesn't really make sense to me. I'm not defending Llama, but that's exactly why I don't agree with this WIFOM over the NK: it is (at the best) as reliable as coin toss.

[LlamaFluff]

Now thats some well timed lurking response by Rikka... someone mentions it and the first time he is able to post in over 100 hours is with in the next 15 minutes? And to say "my top two picks are the top two wagons"?

Terrion is bugging me beyond reason right now. The WIFOM he is citing also seems highly convienent to just show up when it did as well. Late in day one, Terrion brings up the WIFOM of SE/IC players living late into the game and it being a possible tell. Who dies that night? Not the IC, not a SE, more of a lurker who most people appeared to have a slightly townish read on. The kill on its own makes me think Terrion as scum to an extent, since it avoids two people (hiphop and myself) who were not getting votes and driving forces and IC/SE slots, and Terrion who was seen as a townish force and very active. Just everything going on makes me think that Terrion is gut-scum, and when you look at how he has played with Rikka this entire game, and how scummy Rikka is, the pairing just jumps out at me.

[Terrion]

Thank you, LlamaFluff, for actually citing reasons why you're suspicious of me. However, this post is extremely off-putting in several ways:

Now thats some well timed lurking response by Rikka... someone mentions it and the first time he is able to post in over 100 hours is with in the next 15 minutes? And to say "my top two picks are the top two wagons"?

So in other words, your case on Rikka is that he is lurking. I recall (and reread) you defending Charlie because the bandwagon on him was supposedly based on lurking, and then I note that you, on multiple occasions, call out the act of voting lurkers as suspicious enough to itself warrant a vote. On analysis, you repeatedly use the idea that Rikka is lurking to prove his alignment. I can't say he's town absolutely, but he's certainly a town read.

Terrion is bugging me beyond reason right now. The WIFOM he is citing also seems highly convienent to just show up when it did as well. Late in day one, Terrion brings up the WIFOM of SE/IC players living late into the game and it being a possible tell. Who dies that night? Not the IC, not a SE, more of a lurker who most people appeared to have a slightly townish read on. The kill on its own makes me think Terrion as scum to an extent, since it avoids two people (hiphop and myself) who were not getting votes and driving forces and IC/SE slots, and Terrion who was seen as a townish force and very active. Just everything going on makes me think that Terrion is gut-scum, and when you look at how he has played with Rikka this entire game, and how scummy Rikka is, the pairing just jumps out at me.

Okay, I think I see why hiphop unvoted you when he thought that the case I made on you was built on NK analysis, even if that was only a small supporting pillar and not near the full case. You, on the other hand, just built an entire case out of NK analysis and nothing else. The day game is immeasurably more important than the night game, so making cases entirely based on night actions is very dangerous. With this and your case on Rikka, I'm going to have to say that you're being extremely inconsistent, and it is becoming itself suspicious.

All things considered, the decision to adopt the two highest bandwagons is suspicious on Rikka's part, but I'm not doing a full read reversal either.

[LlamaFluff]

Actually about 75% of the non gut/speculation reasoning I think you are scum is I think Rikka is scum. Just a lot of the things going on in this game point to you being scum in my mind, but it needs more concrete evidence to support it clearly.

Rikka is scum for lurking due to it being far more strategic and timed then Charlie did, who was just not posting much or not posting with content.

The post from Rikka obviously ment he was reading the game. Unless you are going to argue that by chance he was reading the game before you had posted and happened to finish it at that point, the far more likely scenario is that he was reading along and not posting, saw that people suddenly noticed, and then called the top two subjects scum. Even if the mod prodded him between the post of yours and his, he would have had to read all of day two, make opinions on the matter, and decide to vote hiphop over me all in a timespan of 20 minutes. That is a logical absurdity. I can nearly guarentee that he was reading and not posting until he got called out.

For comparison, this took me about ten minutes to make, having already known everything I was going to say before I started typing. For him to make that post, he would probably to have had his opinions already laid out.

[Rikka]

Guilherme, may vote for llama has nothing to do with any NK theories.

Quick Facts:

I had been reading the thread. I also lost track of the days of the week.