Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[bvoigt]

Hey, everyone!

hi guys
so, a few questions for you all:
1) how did you start playing mafia?
2) Are you better as scum, or town? Why?
3) What are your thoughts on the current setup?

1. I saw the game being played on another site, Googled "mafia forum game," and found mafiascum.
2. Probably scum, as you can see from my record. I'm still trying to get the hang of scumhunting.
3. It looks interesting. I thought it would be America-town versus Soviet-scum, but obviously, that's not the case.

Anyway, if PoisonIvy had received a town PM, she'd know that the win condition is

not

"You win when the Soviets are dead."

VOTE: PoisonIvy

[bvoigt]

No. Im saying i have no qualms about being investigated if someone deems me worthy of it. Im not going "Oh! COP COP!! Pick me! Pick meee!" Do not twist my words.

Why would you even feel the need to mention this?

[bvoigt]

Hm, the problem with the ivy wagon is that as scum her PM should have her against peaceful players, not against Americans or soviets so her assuming that the set-up is Americans vs soviets makes me honestly think she just didn't read it all that closely

Look at the rules post, though:

[4] A possible mafia win condition is: "You win when only Soviet players remain alive or nothing can prevent this"

[bvoigt]

Hm, the problem with the ivy wagon is that as scum her PM should have her against peaceful players, not against Americans or soviets so her assuming that the set-up is Americans vs soviets makes me honestly think she just didn't read it all that closely

Look at the rules post, though:

[4] A possible mafia win condition is: "You win when only Soviet players remain alive or nothing can prevent this"

Well I think that was an example, the actual win cons (unless there are various non-conflicting ones which doesn't make a lot of sense) are about peace and war, not nationality.

Really? Is that what the actual scum win conditions are?

This is a good catch.

I'm having second thoughts about the PI wagon -- it's taken off a little too quickly for my tastes. I still think PI seems scummy, but in the past my scum reads have been pretty terrible, so I'm going to play this one by the numbers.

I'm not buying this. Your reads have been bad in the past, but that doesn't mean they'll be wrong this time.

[bvoigt]

Regarding the whole deal about furcolow thinking scum had daytalk, I can't see that it's a tell either way. Both town and scum had the information available that scumchat stopped 24 hours in, so not understanding that point is a simple mistake that would be just as easy to make as town or scum.

But town might have missed that post, whereas scum would definitely know about it, since they'd be participating in the daytalk.

[bvoigt]

people are jumping on this wagon, only thinking "she must be mafia because she thinks all mafia are Soviets, blah blah blah, and only mafia would do this, blah blah blah, let's leave only two methods of thinking". Right. Because you all had the wincon memorized before someone reposted it for you, right? And someone getting distracted by the giant America/Soviet flag at the top of the page as well as the possible mafia wincon couldn't possibly think that maybe we were up against Soviets, that just doesn't happen, does it? And it's not like they COULD still apply that possibly mafia wincon to our own wincon and say that the Soviets are the threat to peace, could they?

If someone (a townie) read the possible mafia wincon (Rule #4), then yes, they'd notice their own wincon (Rule #3) and the fact that each player has an alignment, a nationality, and a role (Rule #2). This, of course, implies that alignment and nationality are separate. I think it's more likely that scum saw their own wincon and simply skimmed the rules post.

Vote: TheAdmiral

I haven't done much more than skim the game, and I still know this guy's scum. Everyone else needs to step their games up >.>

Why?

[bvoigt]

Why can't you place a vote that's not on one of those wagons?

[bvoigt]

GW is being silly, but I don't think he's scum.

[bvoigt]

no scott, furcolow is not a policy lynch, i use anti-town and scummy to refer to the same sort of behaviors, and as far as im concerned furcolow has been scummier than pi. and no one is paying attention to most of the people in this game, there are 24 of us.

Since when are anti-town and scummy the same thing? Some actions make no sense from scum or town, and some actions only make sense from scum.

Then hang me Parker.

Vigs however, please hold your fire.

What do you mean by this?

[bvoigt]

Not liking gonnano's response too well. It seems like scum waiting for a wagon, just like GW.

You mean a wagon like the PI wagon? or the Furcolow wagon? or the rat wagon that's starting now? If I were just waiting for a wagon, don't you think I would have found one by now?

PI was your only vote before now. And you supported the Furcolow wagon:

Furcolow is steadily becoming more and more scummy to me

Not to mention the Admiral wagon:

I don't particularly object to a ThAdmiral wagon right now, but I'd like to see what exactly people are finding so scummy about him before I buy in. What vague posts or hints at inside information has he made?

And now that I've mentioned it, this is an extremely scummy quote. You wouldn't mind a wagon on him, even though you don't know why he's scummy? This looks exactly like scum waiting for a reason to get someone lynched.

[bvoigt]

PI was your only vote before now. And you supported the Furcolow wagon:

My understanding was that InflatablePie was accusing me of waiting around for a wagon to put my vote on. The point I was trying to make is that if I were scum trying to hop onto an unobtrusive wagon, I have had plenty of opportunities. For example, I could have stayed on the PoisonIvy wagon to try and see it through a mislynch. Instead, I got off because I have a feeling that a wagon that moves that fast is scummy. I said that Furcolow was becoming scummy, but a lot of other players felt the same way for the same reasons. The fact is that I didn't put down my vote just so I could ride along with a wagon.

Maybe you didn't actually place a vote, but you still supported a wagon, which is just as bad. It allows scum to get someone lynched without being held responsible later on (in vote count analysis, etc).

And now that I've mentioned it, this is an extremely scummy quote. You wouldn't mind a wagon on him, even though you don't know why he's scummy? This looks exactly like scum waiting for a reason to get someone lynched.

I like it when wagons are formed on players who haven't really been pressured yet. So I didn't have any objection to the Thad wagon. While I was in favor of the pressure, though, I wasn't very clear on the reasoning behind the wagon -- if there was any. Again, I didn't put down a vote -- this time because not having a clear cause is an attribute that I'm not fond of in wagons..

So why didn't you try to form your own opinion about TheAd, instead of halfheartedly supporting his wagon and waiting for someone else to provide you with a reason to join it?

[bvoigt]

Maybe you didn't actually place a vote, but you still supported a wagon, which is just as bad.

So when exactly is it okay for me to share my reads? If me saying that Furcolow is acting in a way that is detrimental to the town is now a scumtell, what contribution

am

I allowed to make to the discussion?

I never said you couldn't share your reads. What I don't like is that you supported a wagon without placing a vote anywhere, and then tried to use your lack of a wagon vote as a defense.

So why didn't you try to form your own opinion about TheAd, instead of halfheartedly supporting his wagon and waiting for someone else to provide you with a reason to join it?

I already had my own impression of thad. It went something like "meh". I think you can understand why I wasn't compelled to share this less-than-awe-inspiring read, and why I was interested to find out what others had seen in his posting that I had missed.

So you had a null read, but were hoping that someone would post a good case so you could change your mind?

[bvoigt]

I'm liking RedCoyote. On that note, because it has more support now: UNVOTE: smargaret VOTE: GhostWriter

Also, scum most likely have fake nameclaims and/or not all of the names that they were given are scummy. Nameclaiming would be pointless.

Artem got to this before I did, but what's with the vote hop just because a GW wagon has more support?

@Steph: I'm not really that concerned over just one vote.

[bvoigt]

Mod, could we get a prod on Fuzzy, Sathrois, and Ivy, please?

Things that are bolded are people I want to hear from. I'd like a new post from Sathrois, Ivy, Fuzzy, and BotS. I'd like Sathrois, Ghost, jmj, bvoigt, Fuzzy, XScorp, LynchMePls, and BotS to justify their votes (or lack thereof) at this point. Most of these people voted once during the beginning of the game and haven't moved it. Ivy's vote in particular is kind of a sketchy one because it appears she began the game by voting Lowell on an RVS basis, but has apparently decided to park it there in spite of being arguably the number one topic of the game's discussion so far.

Poison Ivy is scum. Why exactly do I have to justify my vote anyways? Because I made it a long time ago? You yourself said the game is slow. Nothing has changed my opinion on who should be lynched.

This. I'd consider switching to gonnano, but my hunch is that PI is a godfather, so....

[bvoigt]

In #356, gonnano devotes an entire wall to defending himself, with almost no scumhunting. He seems to be focusing on survival rather than lynching scum. I want to see godfather-PI dead today, but he is also a good lynch.

PoisonIvy going MIA when pressure is put on her is scummy

How so? Lurking is frustrating, but not an alignment tell IMO.

I don't like the jmj wagon at all. What exactly is wrong with reading people in ISO? I've been making a list of my reads, and found it very useful.

[bvoigt]

And here is my previously mentioned reads post. Players in each category are in no particular order.

Town

Beasts of the Sea- His posts contain a lot of questioning and looking for information.
LynchMePls- ISO's #4 and #14 are examples of good scumhunting.
Furcolow- It's kind of just a gut read, but I think he's town.
XScorpion- He's been tunneling, but probably tunneling on scum.
bvoigt
LlamaFluff- I like that he was willing to unvote his main suspect in ISO #9 after a subtle towntell.
Ghostwriter- I don't see the scum motivation for his actions.
EGL- This one isn't a strong read, but I do get a general town feeling from him.
Scott Brosius- I like his ISO #3, especially the point about smargaret.
Nachomomma8- His catch-up post has some excellent analysis.
DavidParker- I don't think scum would call for a lynch in post #14 of the game.
Artem- He posts infrequently, but with lots of content and analysis.

Not Sure

pappums rat- He looks slightly scummy, but mostly just misguided.
Fuzzyman
Stephoscope
jmj3000
Lowell
Sathrois- I'd like more content from all of them.
RedCoyote- I'm leaning town, but don't like his vague vote on TheAd in ISO #5.
ThAdmiral- He's hard to read for some reason.

Scum

smargaret- ISO #8 is a stretch, and it feels like she's distancing from PI. I also don't like her latest vote.
PoisonIvy- I still think the Soviets thing was a slip, and her willingness to be investigated is also weird.
gonnano- I've already explained my suspicions of him, and he's also been focusing on defending himself rather than scumhunting.
InflatablePie- TMH claimed that he knew "the actual win cons" for scum, and IP likes to hop wagons.

[bvoigt]

Thank you, Sotty! <3

Also, SNOW DAY!!! My heart goes out to you have have to be outside in extra cold weather, but down here in Texas when we get one inch of snow everything closes.

So now the university is closed for the day and I have nothing to do all day except stay warm. I think I'll break into that Rocky Blu-ray collection I got for Christmas...

Seriously? Up here, it's around 30 degrees today, and people are walking around in short sleeves. [/offtopic]

Just finished re-read/skim. ThAd is also scum. I'd be perfectly happy to lynch him as well. I'll post a case if people need it, but it's pretty obvious.

Yeah, please explain.

[bvoigt]

I agree lurking isn't an alignment tell on its own. But when someone is participating, gets lots of votes then vanishes. That's scummy.

But he didn't vanish

after

getting lots of votes...all of them have come in the last page or so.

[bvoigt]

I agree lurking isn't an alignment tell on its own. But when someone is participating, gets lots of votes then vanishes. That's scummy.

But he didn't vanish

after

getting lots of votes...all of them have come in the last page or so.

Are we both talking about Poison Ivy? She had 9 votes on page 3.

*facepalm* I know your original point was about PI, but somehow after the JMJ wagon I got it in my head that we were talking about him. Never mind.

[bvoigt]

Read his entire iso. Pay particular attention to the last few posts. Then see if your question still makes sense.

I'm dense. Please explain.

Anyway, after reading LMP's case and doing a more thorough ISO, I'd say ThAd is fairly likely to be scum. While PI is still my first choice, this is a much better alternative to lynching jmj.

UNVOTE: PoisonIvy
VOTE: ThAdmiral

[bvoigt]

@Furc: I've done plenty of scumhunting on PI and gonnano, but I just didn't think there was enough support to lynch either of them. But maybe there's more support for a gonnano lynch than I thought. Let's try this:

UNVOTE: ThAdmiral
VOTE: gonnano

[bvoigt]

Thad, jmj, gonnao... make one of them dead, now.

This game needs a flip.

Agreed, especially if it's a gonnano flip. The only thing I'd want before the day ends is a content post from jmj.

[bvoigt]

@Everyone else: Can you give any reason why Furcolow should not be lynched after all this?

I still think he town-telled here:

the last game I was scum, I had daytalk, so I'm used to that.
I did not know they didn't have daytalk.
Sorry if my comments were skewed to be viewed as trying to organize amongst scum, that is not the case.

He could have just pointed out that scum did have daytalk, so it seems that he actually didn't know they had daytalk for 24 hours. I know you mentioned that Magna and HackerHuck faked something similar in a previous game, but MOI and HH are both experienced, outstanding players...I really don't see Furc gambiting like that.

[bvoigt]

@Furc: While I don't agree with his case on you, Feysal seems sincere, and probably town.

The gonnano wagon doesn't seem to be going anywhere. Now that my top suspect has an active replacement, maybe we can get enough support to get her lynched. So far, Amrun's play looks just as bad as PI's.

Scumreads:
Fuzzman (1 post with a weird flavorclaim? Really?)
ThAd (less for the weakish case against him and more for his strange reactions to pressure)
jmj (

very slight

-- would not vote for him at this point, but his reactions to pressure are super rage, which is odd)
GW (He seems to be delighting in a blatant refusal to scumhunt.)


I'm also getting

slight towns

off of DP (meta, but I don't really trust meta) and Feysal (good case against Furcolow).

I'm null on Furcolow

for several reasons. As others have pointed out, Furc's discussion of daytalk reads as a towntell... But as Feysal outlined nicely, which I was thankful for since now I don't have to do it myself, Furcolow contradicts himself CONSTANTLY and makes tons of anti-town plays. He's either scum or just a bad player... but at this precise moment I'm leaning towards bad player.

This may be swayed by future Furc actions.

I also have a null on gonnano

. Some of his posts seem a bit scummy (not trusting his own reads seems to me to be giving himself an excuse for a mislynch), but some of his posts do not. In particular, early on, a lot of people were pointing to his interaction with PI being scummy, and while I agree that gonanno looks scummy if PI were scum, I know PI is NOT scum. So,

I'm on the fence

about gonnano but leaning town since I have the advantage of knowing that I am not, in fact, scum. Also I think he makes a good point about Lowell, but not strong enough. I'd like to see Lowell defend himself, though.

Bolded are all examples of fencesitting, and while some null reads are expected, I don't like that she only has 3 townreads when I (for example) have 10. Perhaps she wants to keep her options open later in the game. In addition, the last sentence of the Furcolow paragraph is pointless, and reads as nervous scum adding an unnecessary qualifier.

Plus, there's the fact that her vote on Fuzzyman boils down to a lurker case. Lurkers are the easy candidates...a lack of free time does not make someone more likely to be scum; it just makes them easier to attack. She's also been inconsistent on why she's voting Fuzzy:

VOTE: Fuzzman

I'd like to see some pressure on him to prompt him into posting so we can get a more solid read on him.

This implies that Fuzzy is slightly scummy, and the vote is mostly for pressure.

I have actual scumreads, but I also have an actual scumread on Fuzzman, whom I voted for. Right now, he seems like the ultimate lurker in a scummy way. He only shows up when people are bitching about him to say he is not US or Soviet? To me, that is suspect. I also think that even if he isn't scum, he is probably third party and not beneficial to town. He seems to be trying to skate by. I don't like it.

This, on the other hand, uses strong language and implies that she definitely thinks Fuzzy is scum.

tl;dr:

Amrun is fencesitting, voting a lurker, inconsistent, and scum.

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: Amrun

[bvoigt]

I agree that Feysal could be town, and his effort surely shows that, but I am not familiar enough with his scum play for myself to bring him out of the lack of a read category. I have a couple town reads, and am suspicious of a few players (amrun (moreso due to PI and conflicting FoSs), smargaret somewhat, and possibly lowell(maybe just due to playstyle)). I am pretty confident that you are bandwagonning here for the sake of bandwagonning, though,

bvoigt. What is your response to that accusation?

Well, yes, I am bandwagonning to some extent. The wagon on my #2 suspect didn't seem to be going anywhere, so I switched my vote back to my #1 suspect. At this point, I agree with LlamaFluff that it's time for a lynch, and would be willing to vote for ThAd. Mothrax still feels like a lurker/policy lynch to me, though.

Oh dear. More mothrax votes please.

If you can make a better case than I did on Amrun in my ISO #23, then maybe I

would

be willing to vote for him.

[bvoigt]

The point about JMJ's lack of activity being due to a real issue is a good one, but I don't think it completely invalidates the lurker case on him. He still made several posts that promised content and didn't give any, and it seems like even in the presence of a problem in real life, a townie wouldn't be likely to stall like that.

What

would

a townie in his situation, with no time, do differently?

[bvoigt]

Furc, a Stephoscope vote is pretty useless at this point.

UNVOTE: Amrun
VOTE: ThAdmiral

There just doesn't seem to be quite enough support for Amrun's lynch, and I'd prefer this over jmj.

[bvoigt]

@gonnano: While I get your point, it also seems pretty nitpicky, and not very reliable. What do you think of my Amrun case in ISO #23?

[bvoigt]

I can see where you're coming from about the vote on fuzzy, but I don't think it's a huge tell. IMO, scum would be more likely to join a wagon to avoid drawing attention to themselves.

Really? Lurker votes rarely come under a lot of pressure. Wagon votes, depending on the situation, can be questioned and seen as a major scumtell. In other words, they're more risky for scum.

[bvoigt]

So do you think Amrum, PIs play removed, is town?

I'm not sure if separating the two has much significance... but in my mind Amrun's play by itself isn't anything really worth lynching her over. Does that answer your question? I guess the way to put it would be that I have basically a null read on Amrun and a scum read on PI, which equals a scum read on the slot.

But you're sticking with the weak vote on mothrax?

[bvoigt]

654 is so horrible it makes me embarassed to be on this wagon. Also, furc is town.

Then join me in voting Amrun.

UNVOTE: ThAdmiral
VOTE: Amrun

[bvoigt]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Amrun

[bvoigt]

Yup.

[bvoigt]

Were you scum?

[bvoigt]

I was already voting Amrun...maybe she realized that it was an actual hammer, but the reaction feels sincere to me.

UNVOTE: Amrun
VOTE: ThAdmiral

This time, the vote is staying here for good.

[bvoigt]

That was a close one... pity that a governor ability was needed.

This really reads as scum knowing that Amrun is scum and trying to get town points for it. "That was a close one...." really rubs me the wrong way.

I'm not buying it, Scott. This post was made after I "hammered" someone whom he'd been defending for a while, and denied being scum when I asked her specifically.

Preview Edit: I agree with LlamaFluff.

[bvoigt]

@ Llama/ anyone else who has been calling for my death:

Could I see a general overview of the points against me, along with why a scum motivation for each is more likely than the reasoning that I have given for my actions? If there's something that I haven't explained I'd be happy to do so.

This looks like a classic case of scum being overly focused on defending himself. As LF said, if any townies have a kill tonight, please use it on gonnano.

- If mccarthy is town I would say the game is bastard. He is clearly not pro-peace so he really shouldn't be town. [size changed]

More tomorrow.

Can you explain this, please?

#821 and #867 are extremely unconvincing cases.

Of the two wagon's I mistrust Amrun the most. ThAd seems to eager to avoid a lynch on himself, as would anybody, but it doesn't seem toodesperate. Amrun felt he had to claim to get not lynched and messed it up a bit. The claim appears manufactured to me, going from memory to contruct a role only to later remember the inaccuracies. I'd look at my role PM again before I'd fully claim.

VOTE:

Amrun

I don't like this, either. The mistakes in the claim made it seem far from "manufactured" to me.

[bvoigt]

Also, maybe this is a bad idea, but should Amrun and Furcolow paraphrase their flavor as well?

[bvoigt]

I don't like this, either. The mistakes in the claim made it seem far from "manufactured" to me.

Well, I've been fooled by someone claiming from memory and then changing small things back as he read his PM again.

If they're scum, how would they fakeclaim from memory?

[bvoigt]

If they're scum, how would they fakeclaim from memory?

That's the thing, they don't. But by changing some things later they make you believe they were. Hence, I distrust it.[/quote]

Isn't there some saying about "The simplest scenario is also the most likely"? This doesn't seem very plausible to me.

[bvoigt]

Sorry, I messed up the quotes.

If they're scum, how would they fakeclaim from memory?

That's the thing, they don't. But by changing some things later they make you believe they were. Hence, I distrust it.

Isn't there some saying about "The simplest scenario is also the most likely"? This doesn't seem very plausible to me.

[bvoigt]

LlamaFluff is obvtown.

I like how when I ask for some justification of the accusations against me, I'm then accused of being scummy for trying to defend myself. Great scumhunting there.

It's scummy because, if you're town, you really don't need to be concerned about a couple of "baseless" votes or accusations against you. However, if you're scum, your focus is staying alive, so you want to look good and defend yourself thoroughly.

[bvoigt]

It's scummy because, if you're town, you really don't need to be concerned about a couple of "baseless" votes or accusations against you. However, if you're scum, your focus is staying alive, so you want to look good and defend yourself thoroughly.

There's been a lot of very vocal support for these accusations, though. Is it really better to ignore it and hope that someone else will come save me before it gets out of hand? I agree that scum need to stay alive, but in most situations it's in a townie's best interest to stay alive, too.

My thinking is that if someone lets an accusation go uncontested, it's equivalent to admitting that it is true and hoping that no one will notice. Which seems like the wrong thing to do if the accusation is a poor one.

[/quote]

Is this normally something you do as town...as in, devote entire posts just to asking for a summary of the points against you?

[bvoigt]

I have role-related information that ThAd is town at this point. Will not reveal further.

Well, if you say so....

UNVOTE: ThAdmiral
VOTE: gonnano

Just because McCarthy would be a bad fakeclaim doesn't make the chance of Amrun being scum any less.

McCarthy is a dangerous claim to make period.

The fact that she made it means it's probably true

, but it also means that the main reason she

didn't

fakeclaim is most likely that she was worried that someone else would counterclaim. She's said as much in a previous post, if I remember correctly. Being worried about having a fakeclaim busted is just as legitimate a worry for scum as town in her situation, so her decision to go ahead and claim McCarthy doesn't hold much town cred with me.

Plus, by claiming McCarthy she gets to say "There's no way that scum would claim McCarthy! It's too risky!"

As I said earlier, the biggest thing Amrun has going for her is her reaction to being "lynched"

What do mean by "it's probably true"?

[bvoigt]

What about her reaction to my "hammer?"

[bvoigt]

GUYS WE ARE LYNCHING CLAIMED SCUM BUNNY NOW

My PM doesn't explicitly state whether or not there are town aligned players of different nationalities

, either. Moreover, I don't see why other role PMs should be any different since the rules regarding nationality and alignment are in the first post, or so, and they are clearly different concepts - something David doesn't seem to quite grasp, by his use of 'probably'. My feeling then, is that David is bullshitting in grand style.

@Amrun: Sorry I'm not good with history x-x.

My person is not of American or Soviet nationality

, I have no favor to back it up though. The favor I do have, anyone could have in their pm.

Let see.... JVW was replaced by fuzzy... who was replaced by bunny.

So bunny is "other" nationality, whos predicesors role specifically states is not told if they exist. I smell slip

Vote bunnylover

Good catch. This does look like a slip.

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: Bunnylover

[bvoigt]

If the bunnylover slip was such a big deal why wasn't it brought up when fuzzy claimed basically the same thing?

I'm guessing no one noticed it at the time. Come on, guys...this is a good lynch for D1. We have about 42 hours until the deadline.

[bvoigt]

I don't want anything to do with the Bunnylover wagon after DP's move to it. That was so scummy it's sick.

Maybe he's bussing.

[bvoigt]

Deadline is in 25 hours.

[bvoigt]

I've got to admit, the slip doesn't look as bad as I thought at first.

But, Bunny still has a pretty good chance of being scum, the deadline is approaching fast, and I just want to get a flip at this point.

[bvoigt]

So, it's probably one American and one Soviet scumteam?

VOTE: gonnano

[bvoigt]

Is the first part of this connected to the vote in some way? If it is, can you explain a little more?

I'm still in favor of an Amrun lynch, for the same reasons I outlined toward the end of D1. And I think it is DEFINITELY worth note that Lowell has continued to be an active lurker, even 48 pages in.

Nah, they're not connected. And as I recall, your main reason for lynching Amrun was her role, and we know now that flavor isn't all that trustworthy. Were there any reasons I'm missing?

[bvoigt]

Ugh, I have no idea what to think of Furc. What are you trying to accomplish by selfvoting?

I'm still in favor of an Amrun lynch, for the same reasons I outlined toward the end of D1. And I think it is DEFINITELY worth note that Lowell has continued to be an active lurker, even 48 pages in.

Some people have pointed this out, and it was poor communication on my part. The reasons that I outlined toward the end of D1 are why I'm

still supporting

an Amrun lynch, versus supporting in general. What I meant was that the guevara flip was not enough to convince me that Amrun was town based on flavor, as I still think McCarthy is even more likely to be scum than Che Guevara. I did not mean that the only reason I support an Amrun lynch is because of the flavor.

All of the problems with PI still apply, as well as the claim of a scummy name with a scummy power. Plus, now it turns out that Amrun A.) did not specify a target before night as promised, and B.) apparently was lying about being able to silence people (without nightkilling them, anyway)

I'm leaving my vote where it is. Amrun is obviously scum.

@Feysal: while we're giving out possible scumtells, why did

you

think there were two scum teams?

Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense. Amrun isn't proven town by the flavor, but we know now that it doesn't prove her scum, either. And let's face it, flavor

was

the main point of your case. You expressed suspicion of PI early in the game, but that's basically it.

I like my vote.

[bvoigt]

vote: furcolow

LAL

I'm not buying this

VOTE: Furcolow

What makes selfvoting a scumtell?

[bvoigt]

It's far from a towntell. Invoking sympathy never works.

It's pretty much null to me. With all that's been going on, I think you should be able to find a better reason to vote someone than that.

[bvoigt]

Meanwhile, Amrun is still scum. I voted for PI before, then unvoted because the wagon speed made me uneasy. Amrun has done plenty since then to help me get over my discomfort. Most notably, the claim and how none of it is townie in any way.

We've already talked about the fact that the claim is not a scumtell. Specifically, what are those other reasons for voting Amrun?

@LMP: It looks to me like Sathoris is trying to skate by, and posting very little good content. You've played with him before, right? What do you think?

[bvoigt]

We've already talked about the fact that the claim is not a scumtell. Specifically, what are those other reasons for voting Amrun?

It is a scumtell, though. A weakened scumtell after the Che flip, admittedly, but still a scumtell.

Given the way the Cold War panned out, it's much more likely for us to be finding scummy-sounding communist roles that end up being townie than it is for us to be finding scummy-sounding capitalist roles that end up being townie. And if McCarthy isn't scum, then there's probably not an American scumteam. However, as it stands there seems to be a definite possibility that there

is

an American scumteam, which in turn means that there is an equal possibility that McCarthy is scum.

OK, fine. Even though we already had one scummy-sounding name flip town, I'll just concede this point and let everyone else take note that most of your scumhunting is based on flavor rather than actual play.

Poison Ivy's play is a large part of why I don't like the slot; Amrun's claim is still a scumtell, and other than that Amrun's defenses of herself have been coming off as a little too vigorous to me overall, like someone who is more worried about staying alive than getting information for the town.

The second point seems pretty hypocritical after you asked numerous times for a summary of the points against you.

[bvoigt]

OK, fine. Even though we already had one scummy-sounding name flip town, I'll just concede this point and let everyone else take note that most of your scumhunting is based on flavor rather than actual play.

So are you going to say that every scummy name from now on is guaranteed town? Even disregarding flavor entirely, Amrun's slot is still one of the scummiest in the game.

When did I ever say that every scummy name is guaranteed town? I do think that some scummy names will be town, based on the flips so far. But there's a big difference between what you're implying I said and what I actually said. Scumhunting based on flavor is not a good strategy for this game.

[bvoigt]

bvoigt: I didn't mean to imply that you had actually said that. I was trying to illustrate the fact that scummy names are still scummy, and even if not all of them are actually scum there's a good chance that most of them will be. What's the point of having a theme if there's no correlation between flavor and role? I agree that flavor isn't enough by itself, but I also think that if you take out flavor entirely Amrun's slot is a strong contender for the scummiest player, and with the scummy flavor and role it just makes sense to lynch her.

Eh, I just think that flavor

was

your main argument for most of Day 1.

[bvoigt]

Nacho's post makes a lot of sense. However, I'm still very happy with my gonnano vote.

[bvoigt]

@LMP: It looks to me like Sathoris is trying to skate by, and posting very little good content. You've played with him before, right? What do you think?

I saw LMP answer this already, but since I've played with Sathoris more, I'll add my own opinion. In the games I've played with Sathoris he has usually been quite aggressive, and the last time I noted him being cautious he was a cult leader. Those games were much faster than this one so it makes sense that his play would be somewhat different, but I do see cause for suspicion.

If Sathoris was used to faster games, I would think he'd be more likely to play the opposite of how he is right now...as in, be

more

active and aggressive than the typical MS player.

[bvoigt]

OK, I lied.
I'm not a veteran. Can you imagine why I would fakeclaim that? I'm so mad right now. Do you all want me to claim? I don't believe it is in the best interest of the town for me to really claim. The person I claimed is truth, but the role is not. My alignment is town.

If you're a VT, no, I really don't see why you would fakeclaim veteran and basically make it more likely for a power role to be NKed.

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: Furcolow

His story simply doesn't make sense.

[bvoigt]

OK, I lied.
I'm not a veteran.

Can you imagine why I would fakeclaim that?

I'm so mad right now. Do you all want me to claim? I don't believe it is in the best interest of the town for me to really claim. The person I claimed is truth, but the role is not. My alignment is town.

CAN YOU IMAGINE WHY I WOULD FAKECLAIM THAT?
THEN SHIFT TO TOWNIE?
I AM A DOCTOR.

Who did you protect N1?

[bvoigt]

Well, if there is only 1 team, then no it doesn't mean that. If there is only 1 team, then sure it does mean that. Either way, DP's play is SUPER FREAKING SCUMMY. Furc's play is scummy with a chance of stupid. Since Furc is prone to stupid plays, DP is a much better wagon.

The play around Furcs wagon looks like a mislynch to me, the way the play around Amrun looked yesterday.

You've convinced me.

UNVOTE: Furcolow
VOTE: DavidParker

I hate to just sheep, but with the way Furc and DP are playing...ugh.

[bvoigt]

Who did you protect N1?

You're town, aren't you?

Yeah. Or was that a rhetorical question?

[bvoigt]

What makes Steph "dangerous?" I don't think he's a bad lynch, but I also don't think it would be very informative.

[bvoigt]

too many lurking bastards for JFK to handle ATM.
But if you leave me alive during the night, I'll be happy to oblige.

Are you implying you are going to kill someone?

Yes.

Nacho, after saying this, I think you might as well fullclaim.

[bvoigt]

too many lurking bastards for JFK to handle ATM.
But

if you leave me alive during the night

, I'll be happy to oblige.

Are you implying you are going to kill someone?

Yes.

[bvoigt]

He is implying that I am scum and I will kill/not kill him in the night.
He is 'happy to oblige' my demand for him to vote me
holy shit can you even read?

That's not how I read it.

[bvoigt]

You read it wrong.

No, you read it wrong.

@ThAdmiral: Somewhere around my ISO #20 on D1, I decided it was time to get a flip, and switched around between several people who seemed pretty likely to be scum.

[bvoigt]

Nacho, please fullclaim.

[bvoigt]

UNVOTE: DavidParker
VOTE: Nachomomma8

After an ISO and some thinking, I'm no longer convinced that DP is scum. Using ThAd's paraphrase of flavor to clear him as town doesn't strike me as something scum would do (unless, of course, he had an entire role PM for a fakeclaim. If that is usually the case, someone please let me know.)

Expect a reread and good post over the next couple of days.

[bvoigt]

Also, the Nacho vote is because he's confusing me and I want an explanation of his claim thingy.

[bvoigt]

Furc, could you link to those games please?

[bvoigt]

OK, I figured it was time to stop being lazy.

Town

Beasts of the Sea- I wish he would post more often, because they're good when he does.
Feysal- He provides good questioning and analysis.
DavidParker- He used the wording of his role PM to clear TheAd.
LynchMePls- See the reasons for Feysal.
ThAdmiral- See DP. Of course, I'd have to rethink if one of the two flipped scum.
Lowell- While he doesn't have a lot of content, he has made a few good posts, such as ISO #13.
XScorpion- His tunneling on Amrun doesn't look something scum would do.
Amrun- Between the claim and the reaction to my "hammer," I just don't think she's that likely to be scum anymore.
bvoigt- I know my play has been halfhearted lately, but I'm going to improve.
The Fonz- I like his catchup post so far.

Not Sure

InflatablePie
EGL
Artem- I was leaning town, but his replace-out post is weird.
Furcolow- Ugh.
Scott Brosius

Scum

smargaret- She goes after a lot of the easy candidates. For example, ISO #8 is a very nitpicky point, and ISO #13 basically just goes after a lurker because everyone else is. ISO #45 is also a nitpicky way to push what turned out to be a mislynch.
gonnano- Expect a good case in an upcoming post.
Stephoscope- It feels like he's skating by on the outskirts of the game, and not really doing much scumhunting of his own.
Nachomomma8- My head tells me that he actually appeared more pro-town in Outdoorsmen Mafia 2, where he (as Calcifer) was scum. But my gut says he's scum in this game, too.
Sathrois- Like Steph, he's been skating by, although his play has improved lately. I also don't like his Furc vote in ISO #24; while self-voting is not good play, it's not a scumtell.

[bvoigt]

Also I'm dissapointed in bvoigt. How can you have DP on your town list and find Artem's replacement vote more in the area of unsure than DP's entire gameplay. And I think I've explained my timely vote on Furc under the self voting quote.

Once someone towntells, I'm inclined to stick with it (and as to why I voted him earlier, I guess I just kind of forgot about it). And yeah, I know you've explained your vote on Furc, but I still don't like it.

Stephoscope- It feels like he's skating by on the outskirts of the game, and not really doing much scumhunting of his own.

I'm not going to claim that I've been able to be one of the more useful players so far, but please explain why your statement apparently puts me into your "scum" category.

Well, posting a low amount of content is an easy way for scum to avoid suspicion. I don't have a problem with posting infrequently, but when combined with your relatively short posts....

[bvoigt]

I have so many problems with this town list. For one, how on EARTH does DP's claimed "wording of his role PM to clear ThAd" make him town? Even more bizarre is how does it make ThAd town!? XScorpion tunneling on Amrun doesn't look like something scum would do. I think my head just exploded. OF COURSE SCUM WOULD DO THAT IF THEY ARE PUSHING A MISLYNCH/CHAINSAWING FOR A BUDDY! WHY WOULDN'T SCUM TUNNEL AMRUN!?!?!?!? MAKES ABSOLUTELY 0 SENSE!

It would be highly risky for scum to clear someone else with the wording of their role PM, especially since we probably have multiple scumteams (and yeah, I know it was Day 1, but if they only had 3 or 4 people, that would be a clue that there was another team). And if DP is town, and he cleared ThAd, that makes ThAd town. Difficult to follow, isn't it? As for XScorpion, obviously scum can tunnel, but the way he's tunneling gives me a town feeling. I don't know how to explain it exactly.

[bvoigt]

Why is there no scenario under which DP tries a gambit to clear ThAd (since he doesn't like the ThAd wagon) and thus DP is town and ThAd is scum. Or even DP tries said gambit because he thinks it'll make him look town, and thus DP is scum and ThAd is town?

Occam's Razor is my friend.

As for XScorpion, obviously scum can tunnel, but the way he's tunneling gives me a town feeling. I don't know how to explain it exactly.

So there is some mysterious method of tunneling that makes someone definitely not scum-tunneling. And you have no idea how to explain it, but you know it on sight? This is so ludicrous.

It does give me a gut town feeling, yes.

So hypothetically, supposing your theory that there is a special town-only-tunneling, what if XScorpion has also observed said "town-tunneling" method, and thus uses it as scum cause he thinks people will think he's town. Doesn't this mean that even if your incredibly unlikely and impossible to explain "town-only-tunneling" did exist, scum could then do it simply to try and appear town.

If it's impossible to explain, then it's ABSURD to suggest that XScorpion would be able to imitate this town-tunneling thing that no one's ever heard of.

[bvoigt]

OK, this part of the case on gonnano doesn't actually deal with his lousy case on Amrun...just with various other things he's said. None of them are major tells, but they add up to a definite scumread.

UNVOTE:

I'm having second thoughts about the PI wagon -- it's taken off a little too quickly for my tastes. I still think PI seems scummy, but in the past my scum reads have been pretty terrible, so I'm going to play this one by the numbers.

I don't see the townie reason for doubting your reads just because they've been poor in the past. I can definitely see why scum would want to hop off a wagon, though (just look at the last quote).

I don't particularly object to a ThAdmiral wagon right now, but I'd like to see what exactly people are finding so scummy about him before I buy in. What vague posts or hints at inside information has he made?

This is basically saying, "Give me a reason to hop on a ThAd wagon!" (Just to be clear, he never actually said that, but it's my interpretation.)

I don't mind people being suspicious of me, but I'd like to see some actual points that I can respond to. Soo... If you've been calling for a gonnano wagon/investigation, some reasons would be cool.

This is from ISO #6, which was posted on page 10. If I'm not mistaken, no one was even voting him at the time. The only reason to ask for a case against you here is if your main focus is to stay alive.

This is everything I could find that you've said about me, Llama. Is there any particular

reason

that you think I should die? Like you know I'm town and killing me will help you win, or something?

Besides being another example of over-defensiveness, something feels very forced about this quote.

There certainly is a lot of vocal support for lynching me, and there has been for a while. Now, why on earth would all those people be reluctant to have their names included in a vote count analysis later on?

This also feels very forced.

Could I see a general overview of the points against me, along with why a scum motivation for each is more likely than the reasoning that I have given for my actions? If there's something that I haven't explained I'd be happy to do so.

Again, there was no reason to ask for the points against him. Only 2 people were voting gonnano at this point. It really seems like his focus was on staying alive rather than scumhunting.

UNVOTE: Nachomomma8
VOTE: gonnano

tl;dr: gonnano is scum, even when you don't look at his case on Amrun.

[bvoigt]

Too late?

[bvoigt]

@smarg: What exactly is the point of claiming town alignment?

[bvoigt]

Guaranteed, huh?

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: Amrun

[bvoigt]

@Amrun: I still think that gonnano is scum, but you and him are on different teams.

[bvoigt]

@Amrun: Why do you say Nacho is strong town?

[bvoigt]

VOTE: gonnano

I believe it's time for him to die.

[bvoigt]

BTW, I have no reason to believe ThAd is town, that was all baloney earlier. There was something in his post when he claimed that looked like a town tell, but I have no role-related info to him being town. However, I still feel he is probable town. Re-reading a go go!

So what was this town-tell?

Are you seriously using LaL in possible LyLo?

OK, this doesn't even make sense. I still want a gonnano lynch, but smargaret would be a good second choice.

[bvoigt]

UNVOTE: gonnano
VOTE: smargaret

Might as well.

[bvoigt]

UNVOTE: smargaret

Brandt does look pretty peaceful.

[bvoigt]

I didn't unvote solely because of smarg's claim...it was mostly at her and Feysal's request. I'm still leaning scum, although not as strongly.

@Steph: Why do you say I'm "probably scum?"

[bvoigt]

I think we need to consider some ways to use smarg's roleclaim to our advantage. Neighbor makes plenty of sense as a mafia fakeclaim, for obvious reasons, and even though Scott says he's never seen it before, I'm sure it's been done.

If smarg's neighbor/scumbuddy decides to confirm smarg's claim, then we can be pretty certain that the two people are linked. If one of the two later flips mafia, then we've got a guaranteed scum. So I think that would be a good idea to move forward with.

Unless I'm mistaken, we wouldn't be able to confirm anyone as scum. One neighbor could be scum, and the other town.

[bvoigt]

People have been saying "gonnano tomorrow" since, like, forever. Hasn't happened yet.

I know, right?

VOTE: gonnano

[bvoigt]

@Furc: I agree, it's probably 4:3:9 remaining.

[bvoigt]

He redacted that claim at some point.

[bvoigt]

Oh, Furc. He's been giving me a gut town read lately, FWIW.

[bvoigt]

Hi. I'm still here, but have nothing really noteworthy to say.

[bvoigt]

Not sure what to think of gonnano's claim. I'm still happy with my vote.

[bvoigt]

VOTE: Stephoscope

I've been thinking he's scum for most of the game, but he's always kind of stayed behind the scenes and avoided serious pressure. Let's change that.

[bvoigt]

It is worth noting that there was no "poisoning" nor "removed from bunker" last night. Is there anything we can deduce from that?

Yeah, although I'm not sure it's really pro-town to say it.

[bvoigt]

If we do have a doc, they should

not

claim. With 2 scumteams, we won't even know if the person they protected was town.

[bvoigt]

It's looking like 8 vs 4 vs 2.

Why so pessimistic? 8-4-2 could be possible, but I think 10-3-1 is at least equally possible.

I think a 3-man scumteam would have a tough time in a 24-player game. With a Day 1 lynch, crosskill, and good vig shot, they could be eliminated by Day 2 in a worst-case scenario.

[bvoigt]

I'm still thinking Fonz is town, and probably Feysal as well.

I like beasts' case on Fonz. Sorta fits with what I was thinking, that

fonz seems somehow different in this game than in others I've played with him.

vote fonz

Of the other two leaders, feysal lynch makes a lot more sense than EGL. Hammering two town isn't great, but to some extent I'd say at least it shows courage and looks better than just riding the wagon somewhere in the middle. That's WIFOM like whoa, I realize, but it's enough to make me call the hammers a null tell.

Furc is climbing up the town ladder for his unique ability to stir things up and keep us all lively and talkative, and bvoigt is climbing down for his meta-talking that serves no purpose.

This post gives me weird vibes, especially the bolded after Fonz's response. Also, where did I "meta-talk"?

[bvoigt]

RL crisis too sad to write here. Hopefully will be back in two days.

Wish you well.

[bvoigt]

RL crisis too sad to write here. Hopefully will be back in two days.

Wish you well.

Do you have any opinions outside of Steph? You both have your vote on each other and haven't provided much on anyone else.

Give Feysal a chance.

I also think Sathoris is scum, along with smargaret and maybe Lowell. Did smarg's neighbor ever claim? I'm not really seeing Feysal as scum.

[bvoigt]

Feysal, why didn't you claim that you were smarg's neighbor?

[bvoigt]

Looks like I've been outed, so I might as well confirm my role explicitly. I am indeed Erich Honecker, Soviet neighbor, smargaret's partner. I could add that while our alignments are unconfirmed, our names and nationalities are confirmed to each other. I know for a fact that smargaret is Willy Brandt, West German neighbor, and she knows similarly who I am. While I'm at it, I can also reveal two clues I left to my role and nationality. The major one was in post #462, my second one in the game. Take the first letter of each sentence, paragraph by paragraph, and you get AUFERSTANDEN AUS RUINEN, the name and first verse of the East German anthem, which I rather like.

This crumb was mentioned in the QT. While the QT post by mod does indeed refer to Feysal's role as he does, my role pm lists his nationality as something other than Soviet (apologies for awkwardness, I'm trying very hard not to quote, and it's not easy since much of what is making me suspicious is word choice/style). However, it's interesting to note that the town communist flips we have - Che and Tito and Brezhnev- are referred to as Cuban and Yugoslavian and Soviet, respectively, while the scum communist flips we have - Kadar and Ho Chi Minh - are referred to as Soviet Mafia and Vietnamese Soviet Mafia. Conclusion: Only scum get both their nationality and "soviet" attached, since "soviet" is an adjective modifying "mafia" and not a nationality in that context. Feysal has both "soviet" and "East-German" attached to his name.

Hmm. That's actually a pretty good point.

UNVOTE: Stephoscope
VOTE: Feysal

[bvoigt]

@The Fonz- I have no idea why David Parker lied. Why do you think he lied?

The most obvious explanation would be to protect his buddy ThAd.

The second most obvious is to buddy up to ThAd-town

. Both of those are more likely than 'He really thought ThAd was town and it was worth the risk' because the risk there is HUGE for town.

So, by the bolded part above, you know ThAd is town?

Why did you choose to say "Fonz knows ThAd is town" rather than "Fonz knows DP and ThAd are buddies?" If you misread the second sentence, I see no reason you didn't misread the first sentence in the same way.

[bvoigt]

There are fairly obvious reasons why PV isn't going to go with a 'Fonz knows DP was scum' argument.

I had to think about it for 20 seconds or so. It still doesn't explain how he could misread that badly, though.

[bvoigt]

There is clearly a difference between an L-2 vote and a hammer.

[bvoigt]

That's L-1.

[bvoigt]

(Though note, you claimed to have a town read on your partner in the post where you first claimed neighbour, and yet most of the stuff you later said was suspicious in the QT came before that).

Can you please address this, smarg?

VOTE: Sathoris

[bvoigt]

@bvoigt- Why the Sathoris vote?

I've been thinking Sathoris is scum for a while. Like Stephoscope, he's been posting infrequently and avoiding attention. In ISO #24, he votes Furcolow for selfvoting, which seems more like a policy lynch than real scumhunting. Then he made excuses to avoid getting on the Feysal wagon, even though he seemed to think Feysal was scum.

[bvoigt]

PeregrineV's charts are bad. There's no analysis (this has been pointed out), and what's more, he only indicates scum and includes players currently living. Furc is on there twice, JMJ/Mothrax is on there but Fonz is listed separately, he doesn't list who's voted me, they're just bad. It's a transparent attempt to look like he's providing content.

I agree with the part about no analysis, but what makes the rest of it scummy? Peregrine made some mistakes with his tables, but I take that as a slight town tell because he's not so concerned with getting everything exactly right.

[bvoigt]

@ThAd: Why did you change your mind about me?

[bvoigt]

A couple of random questions: do you guys agree that Scott was probably an intentional crosskill? He didn't seem particularly pro-town, but I don't remember anyone finding him very scummy, either. And can you find any breadcrumbs from LMP? He definitely found DavidParker/Peregrine scummy, but I'm not sure if it was watcher results or just regular scumhunting.

[bvoigt]

Sathoris, if Steph was the last mafioso, I think he could kill someone and be killed in the same night.

Also, would we benefit from a mass name claim?

[bvoigt]

@PeregrineV: RedCoyote was "poisoned," and someone was "assassinated" on Night 3, when we presumably had no vig shot. So the vig flavor must be "removed from the bunker." Then you can figure out the remaining flavors from crosskills. "Poisoned" is Soviet, and "assassinated" is American.

Also, would we benefit from a mass name claim?

Actually, instead of a mass name claim, how about just nationality claims?

[bvoigt]

DavidParker/PeregrineV
I've played with DP ALOT. I know his scum game, and every time it is bus bus bus. If you don't believe, have a look at all his games It's too obvious really.

Scott def scum, LMP probable-scum.

This caught my attention alot. But I looked at his ISO, his bussing is usually not subtle, so with a lack of it, it really leaves me wondering. I can also tell you this guy wasn't really into the game, and when he isn't, he just mindlessly bandwagons regardless of alignment, so it's null for him.

IIRC, David claimed a Soviet name, so unless it's different from his real name he's not buddies with Scott.

What else caught my attention you may ask me:

So, it's probably one American and one Soviet scumteam?

VOTE: gonnano

Ok, from here we see that he immediately comes to the conclusion of an American scum team? Why?? This is post 1192, early D2.

Well, with three kills, one of them a vig, I assumed two scumteams. Soviet and American seemed the most logical. Also, can you clarify #2100? Did you mean "likely scum pairs?"

@Furc: The odd-night vig is dead, so if we have an even-night vig, he won't be able to shoot tonight.

[bvoigt]

Bvoight, I meant unlikely scum pairs.
Also, why would you assume an American mafia team, especially at the very start of Day 2.
You droned on about flavor somewhere. I did a brief period on Cold War, why would you think the US is a belligerent in the Cold War and a scum faction??? It was a war against communism.
We don't have an even night vig. Look at the kill's.
3 kills N1, N2, N4
1 kill N3.

Um...my win condition relates to "threats to peace." Soviets were the bad guys from the US perspective, but Americans were bad guys from the USSR perspective. And we had three kills on Night 1. Also, even-night vig makes sense with an odd-night vig.

[bvoigt]

I had bvoigt as town for a long time but a day ago or so he started to drop on my townie list, can't remember exactly why anymore. I think I posted something about it earlier. Also I find it strange he first questions wether we would benefit from a name claim but then suggest a nationality claim. Why would that be better bvoight?

I think a nationality claim will help us decide who to lynch without giving away as much information (about power roles) to the scum.

[bvoigt]

Then why are the three kills N1? If there is only an even night vig??

There were four reveals before you said there was American scum, and none of them were Soviet townies.
Their nationalities were US, US, British and Cuban.

Cuban I can understand, but I still fail to understand why you would think of American as a threat to peace.
Remember in this world, America is glorified as the protector of peace and common sense would dictate that America be the protagonist in this game.

When can we start getting move votes on this fella guys?

The odd-night vig, who died night one, presumably made one of those three kills. And there are two sides to every war, so with two other kills, I assumed the two scumteams were American and Soviet.

[bvoigt]

Derp I forgot about the vig being able to kill night 1.

Don't you think the US would be the good guys?? After all the win-con says "threats to peace". Why would you think the US is a threat to peace, going by flavor they are trying to remove power from those who are a threat to peace.
Also looking at the front page, the scum wincon only says: "When soviets remain alive" like that.

I think you are just bullshitting now after you made a scum slip .. I mean an American scum team slip..

Let's put it this way...if there are two scumteams, and two sides of the war, what would

you

assume they are?

[bvoigt]

I'm not sure, maybe Soviet and German? But definitely not American.

Why would you suggest two scum teams so early in Day 2? You didn't even stop to consider that the kills could be from the vig and then a SK and one scum team, yet you immediately jumped to the conclusion of an American scum team, which only now is there evidence to suggest so.

The part about a SK is a good point, but it doesn't make as much sense flavorwise. And I'm Soviet and town-aligned, so I knew it wasn't capitalist versus communist.

[bvoigt]

@PeregrineV: RedCoyote was "poisoned," and someone was "assassinated" on Night 3, when we presumably had no vig shot. So the vig flavor must be "removed from the bunker." Then you can figure out the remaining flavors from crosskills. "Poisoned" is Soviet, and "assassinated" is American.

Also, would we benefit from a mass name claim?

Actually, instead of a mass name claim, how about just nationality claims?

So, Soviet mafia killed RedCoyote, Debonair Danny DiPietro (InflatablePie), nobody, and

Scott Brosius

.

American mafia killed LlamaFluff,

VP Baltar

, XScorpion, and LynchMePls.

Town vig RedCoyote killed hohum (Ghostwriter) night 1.

Town vig unknown killed nachomama8 night2 and

Stephoscope

night4.

So, why did the Soviet mafia not kill night 3?

The only way you'd get an answer to this question would be if a protective role claimed. Looks like rolefishing to me. Also, are you going to analyze those vote charts soon?

[bvoigt]

Soviet, as I said earlier. Lowell next, please.

[bvoigt]

Furcolow, what was your nationality again?

[bvoigt]

@The Fonz- If you feel my argument is so bad, please explain to the best of your ability the high degree of similarity between Beasts number of votes and those of VP Baltar and Scott Brosius? Even Stephoscope was only voted on 3 occasions- the players just held thier votes over multiple days.

Sorry, but Fonz is right. Scum want to avoid getting voted, but so do town. And you can't choose the amount of times that people vote you. BTW, what was your nationality again?

I'll try to do some more analysis once everyone claims nationalities, but I know my vote needs to be somewhere else.

UNVOTE: Sathoris
VOTE: Enigma

[bvoigt]

There are 6 communist claims and 4 capitalist claims, I believe. 4 communists and 6 capitalists would make it even. So if you do want to outguess the mod, we have 3 scum out of the communist claims and 1 out of the capitalists.

Re setup:

Nearly

(Note not every) all 12p games have 3 scum teams. 2*3 scum teams is balanced for a 24p setup. I bid you all good luck in outguessing the mod. And as a result now, the optimal play for one Soviet scum left is to not Night Kill just to add to your confusion.

That's true, but when you consider crosskills, 2 scumteams of 4 each make more sense. I was in a 16-player game that had 2 scumteams of 3. However, I don't really see the point of arguing about it. Peregrine, why are you so concerned about the number of scum remaining?

[bvoigt]

@Peregrine: I'm still thinking 3 US + 1 Soviet remaining.

For scum in the capitalist claims, I'd say either smarg or Enigma. ThAd and BotS are pretty town.

From the communist claims, my top candidates are Sathoris and Lowell. That leaves Fonz, Furc, and you. Unfortunately, I had town reads on all 3. Hmm...is it a bad idea to assume the game is 12 capitalists and 12 communists?

[bvoigt]

@bvoigt- based on nationality claims Enigma and ThAd are both claiming US. Wouldn't that mean they are both US scum, at least? and the off-country you have smargaret?

I still haven't done the nationality analysis, but 12-12 makes sense, for flavor balance.

No, I don't think that makes them both scum.

[bvoigt]

@Peregrine: Wasn't Che Guevara Communist?

[bvoigt]

{PeregrineV, Furcolow, Lowell, bvoigt, The Fonz, Sathoris}

Looking at this list of Communist claims, I feel that Sathoris is almost certainly scum. And Enigma's reactions on the past page just don't seem all that scummy. Do we have time for this?

UNVOTE: Enigma
VOTE: Sathoris

[bvoigt]

UNVOTE: Sathoris
VOTE: smargaret

Sathoris needs to die eventually, though.

[bvoigt]

Some of notes.
1)

enigma

didn't seem particularly scummy-- until his last "give up" post. When someone is about to die and all of a sudden has tons of 'obvreads' to share, that's a sign they were holding back. Which to me smells like scum. I'll lynch him if we need, but not right now.
2) I'm still not sold on the 12v12 mechanic. It would be nice if it is, but surely the mod considered massclaims would happen at some point so we shouldn't throw away reads b/c we think we have the setup figured out.
3) Among the american side, the scummiest are enigma and

ThAd

. I fear I have been blinded by flattery. All his "voting bloc" posts don't serve much purpose other than to solidify a group of friends. Also enigma, in his 'whoa is me' post, named ThAd as scum, seemingly out of nowhere. This looks like it could be last-minute distancing, and both could be US-aligned scum.
4) Among the soviet side,

pere

stands out the most. He's been heavy-handed (overly so) with his 12v12 theory, as well as the importance of determining the exact number of scum left. If there's a US hiding among the soviets, I think pere is the most likely and that he's trying shape the debate on his terms. Look back at how quickly the nationality debate has dominated discussion. Clearly some people have things to gain by focusing on this.

What happened to smarg?

[bvoigt]

I think we should massclaim today. A lynch and 2 kills brings us to 2 US scum, 1 Soviet scum, and 1 townie.

Yesterday, I was thinking that since we had 10 capitalists and 14 communists, 2 of the 3 US mafia were lying about their nationalities. So with Beasts' flip, that gives me town reads on Enigma and ThAd. Correct me if I'm wrong about the claims.

{PeregrineV, Lowell, bvoigt, The Fonz, Sathoris}

Here are the Soviet claims. I'd say that Sathoris and Lowell are scum. I actually have town reads on both Fonz and Peregrine, but if I had to guess the last one, I'd say Fonz.

[bvoigt]

If we do massclaim, Sathoris should start.

[bvoigt]

I admit, the second votecount looks pretty bad for Enigma.

[bvoigt]

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer

- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@Sathoris- Can you tell us why you are not the remaining Soviet scum player?

@Lowell- Passing the popcorn to you. Fullclaim please.

So, your role is basically a VT? Also, is that exactly what your role PM says for a name?

[bvoigt]

You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.

[bvoigt]

VOTE: Sathoris

Trying to decide exactly what I want to do. The VCA is convincing, but my theory makes Enigma town....

[bvoigt]

VOTE: Sathoris

Trying to decide exactly what I want to do. The VCA is convincing, but my theory makes Enigma town....

Which theory?

Yesterday, I was thinking that since we had 10 capitalists and 14 communists, 2 of the 3 US mafia were lying about their nationalities. So with Beasts' flip, that gives me town reads on Enigma and ThAd.

[bvoigt]

I've also had a scum read on you for a long time, so I'd rather place my trust in that, along with some setup speculation, than one bit of VCA.

[bvoigt]

Here are a few things I've noticed about Sathoris. Fonz, I'll look into their links later.

Of the two wagon's I mistrust Amrun the most. ThAd seems to eager to avoid a lynch on himself, as would anybody, but it doesn't seem toodesperate. Amrun felt he had to claim to get not lynched and messed it up a bit. The claim appears manufactured to me, going from memory to contruct a role only to later remember the inaccuracies. I'd look at my role PM again before I'd fully claim.

VOTE:

Amrun

This reason feels forced. Why would a "manufactured" claim have several inconsistencies?

I'm surpised so many of you piled on PI just because of her initial response to the questions. You only know your role and the town's win condition but you don't know what other roles are distributed to townies. Perhaps you did just skim through the role name and assumed a certain setup.

Frankly I find the question more scumworthy than the answer. The mafia have a basic knowledge of their roles but can't know what roles are available to the townies. Besides one suspicious answer and that person get's cornered.

Vote: Furcolow

I'm sticking with my vote on Amrun. PoisonIvy made several scumtells and came under pressure and didn't react all that well. Amrun replaced her and also came under pressure and was forced to claim which didn't absolve her. In fact the claim added more suspicion. Two players with one role making several scumtells which imo rules out any possibility of miscommunication.

These two quotes contradict each other. Early in the game, Sathoris didn't seem to buy the case on PoisonIvy, but then he changed his tune and claimed she made several scumtells.

vote: furcolow

LAL

I'm not buying this

VOTE: Furcolow

As I've mentioned, selfvoting is a nulltell. Voting someone because of it seems like a policy vote rather than real scumhunting.

The Fonz is trying to run the town more and more with large postings and commenting and anything he can get his hands. I'm not sure he's always like that, but I'm not comfortable with it. Especially since Jmj and mothrax were quite the opposite but all got the same role.
Then again you're doing something similar.

22

The Fonz

- He's on the right track

Polish townie

Here's another contradictory read. Sathoris, what made you change your mind between these posts?

[bvoigt]

Here are a few things I've noticed about Sathoris. Fonz, I'll look into their links later.

Of the two wagon's I mistrust Amrun the most. ThAd seems to eager to avoid a lynch on himself, as would anybody, but it doesn't seem toodesperate. Amrun felt he had to claim to get not lynched and messed it up a bit. The claim appears manufactured to me, going from memory to contruct a role only to later remember the inaccuracies. I'd look at my role PM again before I'd fully claim.

VOTE:

Amrun

This reason feels forced. Why would a "manufactured" claim have several inconsistencies?

I don't understand this point. A fake claim is far more likely to have inconsistencies than a genuine one.

He didn't seem to be attacking her for inconsistencies, though...he was saying that she intentionally made mistakes to look more town. Is that correct, Sathoris?

As I've mentioned, selfvoting is a nulltell. Voting someone because of it seems like a policy vote rather than real scumhunting.

Why are policy votes more likely to come from scum, though? As the best-known advocate of policy lynching on this site, I feel I have to object. Scum don't push policies that they don't believe as town. Calling policy lynching 'not real scumhunting' just isn't true. People are so willing to go policy lynch = scum (look at Beasts trying to pin precisely that on me) that I tend to find a willingness to PL townish.

In any case, Furcolow's selfvote felt like a calculated bit of posturing, rather than the usual newbie melting down under pressure cause for selfvoting.

But this policy lynch wasn't for something like lying, or rolefishing, which helps scum and hurts town. This was for an action that hurts both town and scum. And that is why I don't see it as real scumhunting.

I'm surpised so many of you piled on PI just because of her initial response to the questions. You only know your role and the town's win condition but you don't know what other roles are distributed to townies. Perhaps you did just skim through the role name and assumed a certain setup.

Frankly I find the question more scumworthy than the answer. The mafia have a basic knowledge of their roles but can't know what roles are available to the townies. Besides one suspicious answer and that person get's cornered.

Vote: Furcolow

I'm sticking with my vote on Amrun. PoisonIvy made several scumtells and came under pressure and didn't react all that well. Amrun replaced her and also came under pressure and was forced to claim which didn't absolve her. In fact the claim added more suspicion. Two players with one role making several scumtells which imo rules out any possibility of miscommunication.

These two quotes contradict each other. Early in the game, Sathoris didn't seem to buy the case on PoisonIvy, but then he changed his tune and claimed she made several scumtells.

True enough I thought the early pressure on PI was unfair. She was solely under pressure because of her take on the game setup. But when she was under pressure she reacted. Calling her wagon a farce and then dissapearing. (Ofc she hasn't posted anywhere anymore, but at the time I couldn't know that) Amrum also said PI dissapeared because she couldn't take the heat.

My first post you quoted was

before

PI made those 'tells' so I said what I said because being under pressure for guessing the game setup wrongly is hardly vote worthy.

Now my second post came after Amrun replaced in. She also said PI made several mistakes. Not quite apologising for her preddecesor, but acknoledging nonetheless. And well as I said, the claim coupled with more scummy play that can't be miscommunication anymore for one role made me put my vote there.

Could you please show me the scumtells she made after that first post?

The Fonz is trying to run the town more and more with large postings and commenting and anything he can get his hands. I'm not sure he's always like that, but I'm not comfortable with it. Especially since Jmj and mothrax were quite the opposite but all got the same role.
Then again you're doing something similar.

22

The Fonz

- He's on the right track

Polish townie

Here's another contradictory read. Sathoris, what made you change your mind between these posts?

Mind you my first post was before the nameclaim and the Fonz put in a lot of work since then. Before that he was more or less focussed on smarg and pushing for his lynch. Hence my statement of him trying to sway us unto his plan. But as I said the nameclaiming business really changed my view on him. Reads change.

Fair enough.

[bvoigt]

@Fonz: Would you mind posting or reposting the case on Beasts/Enigma? I mostly understand your point, but would like to see it in one post.

[bvoigt]

@Sathoris: That's not what I'd call "several scumtells," but oh well. I think I've made my point.

@Peregrine: So does it say "I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game" in your role PM? (I don't mean those exact words, just the general ability.)

[bvoigt]

I've made other points, and your play in general has been under the radar, especially earlier in the game.

[bvoigt]

I've changed my mind about Peregrine. His claim seems off.

[bvoigt]

You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.

I saw this in the voting patterns, when I was looking the living players votes. The person you most voted for was the vig target the following night. I almost came out and said it, but then remembered the whole odd/even day thing.

This more or less confirms peregrine as town in my mind. Surely he would have killed the vig if he was scum.

I disagree. Peregrine, if he's the last Soviet, would probably prefer to keep me alive since I was defending him. I've changed my mind about him, though.

@Fonz: Those are pretty valid points, IMO. I also noticed that BotS, despite having a strong feeling that you were both scum, never wanted to vote you. (This makes Fonz close to confirmed town if Enigma flips scum. Not that he's going to be lynched anyway, but it's something to keep in mind.) I'm willing to vote for Enigma.

@Bvoigt: I think what you're getting at is this, no?

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer

- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@bvoigt, I am a Vanilla Townie, but my guy was some writer. It says Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie.

He appeared to claim that 'writer' was part of his actual rolename, but then went back on it. Couple this with the being dead during the cold war issue, this really, really looks like a fakeclaim to me.

Right. The part about PMing the mod also seems off.

Before anyone hammers, I want everyone to answer this: you do know what to do in a 2:1:1 endgame, right? Because it's possible we might face that tomorrow.

I don't. This happened in one of my previous games, but we probably didn't play it correctly. One other question (directed at everyone): I should kill if we lynch town, and hold off if we lynch Soviet scum. What's the best play if we lynch American scum?

[bvoigt]

I've decided I want to switch wagons. Enigma, what do you have to say before I hammer?

[bvoigt]

UNVOTE: Sathoris
VOTE: Enigma

Since Peregrine won't.

[bvoigt]

2:1:1 situation,

first town player to get online self-votes.

Other town player should vote for whoever self-votes. Scum will not self-vote, since doing so will mean dying and losing. The reason is that you need scum to crosskill, therefore removing one of the two town targets is pro-town- town is no better off with two town alive and all the scum dead than with one. 1:1:1 endgame (if between lynch and NKs we get one dead American and three dead town) then the surviving town player should vote no-lynch.

VOTE: bvoigt

[bvoigt]

Nice job Fonz, and good game, everyone. Thanks for taking over when CML flaked, Sotty.

This game lasted, what, four months, and I know I lost interest a couple of times. But I think my reads were decent. Sorry for killing you, Nacho, but it looked like you were softclaiming vig.

What's the point of a blacklister in this setup? Especially as a town role, it doesn't seem to do much.

[bvoigt]

OK, then ALL the mafia were lurking.

Except gonnano. At least, he kept drawing attention to himself.