Newbie 1070 - Game Over

[Jack Forman]

Quaroath and Rain if you look at my join date I have only been playing a little over a week, I work, the mafia servers have been difficult, and as I stated in my first post to say hello I mentioned I was out of town and would not post til today. Therefore I apologize for any inconvenience or difficulties I may have put on anyone to read my only post in this game.

As for my vote I am going to no vote, it is day one there is not enough to place a vote on someone. I think that RVS is a dumb ass way to pick someone to vote based on their avatar or no avatar picture or even because you dont like someones name. No vote is a good way to go anyways... why kill off someone in RVS, that townie (you are most likely to lynch a townie D1 anyways) could be the person you need to win this game. So why make the game easier for the mafia, vote with me in a no vote and lets have a have a good fun game everyone.

Vote: No Vote

I noticed you were new, I was just asking you to get an avatar asap (which would be now, since you have) =D It's just friendly advise, we weren't jumping on you (at least, I wasn't). I understand outside of the game, I work 60 a eek and am in a Master's degree program. I know time crunch! It would have been a bigger issue (no avatar) after 5 or so pages.

That said... No voting is not really a good thing, it actually strikes me a bit off kilter. The RVS has function, putting people under pressure to spark conversation. No one (one hopes) will get lynched off the RVS and without the information it generates we can't really move forward with the game, we end up holding hands and singing "Ashes, Ashes, We all fall down"

VOTE: Vote: Jack Forman in a for reals not RVS vote manner. Slighly suspicious that you want to slow the flow of information.

I am not trying to slow down the flow of information. I am only thinking that I am a town person or supposed to appear to be a town person, just like you. A No Vote would prove beneficial to the town, because there is not enough to go off of to assume anyone is scum. Most likely we will lynch a townie D1. By Voteing againts a person that is a no vote you kind of look scummy, if you were town would just ignore me and continue to RVS. So obviously my no vote did apply pressure. You say I am trying to relieve pressure but I obviously am applying pressure if it convinced you to vote against another townie.

The problem with no-lynch is that the Mafia will then get a free NK on a townie on Night 1, and then we'll be down to 6 vs. 2, and that's being optimistic

If we do vote chances are we will be 5 vs 2. And our chances are even worse. And yes, I am really casting a "No Vote"

Vote Count

Jack Forman (2) - Rain, Quaroath
T-Bone (1) - Stels
barefootfighter (1) - muh316
Stels (1) - Ellyssa
muh316 (1) - splitfarvle

Not Voting (3) - barefoot-fighter, Jack Forman, T-Bone

With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch.

[Quaroath]

I am not trying to slow down the flow of information. I am only thinking that I am a town person or supposed to appear to be a town person, just like you.

I can understnad the initial though process here.

A No Vote would prove beneficial to the town, because there is not enough to go off of to assume anyone is scum.

This is the point of the RVS, in essence. I deeply disagree that a No-Vote is beneficial to town. If we No-Lynch day 1, we only hurt ourselves.

Most likely we will lynch a townie D1.

Considering it's 7v2, yes that is true. 78% change, rounded. IT's self evident, yet you need to point it out. Scum likes to state the obvious while trying to seem like they are contributing. Not sure if this is scum-tell or newbie-tell atm. Leaning newbie though.

By Voteing againts a person that is a no vote you kind of look scummy, if you were town would just ignore me and continue to RVS.

From outside of myself voting for you, if someone else did the same thing and I'm looking outside in I'm pretty sure I do' come off hella scummy.

No-Vote is bad for town

Bolded for emphasis. I don't think it makes me look scummy for calling you on a (likely newbie oriented) move that can do nothing but help scum.

So obviously my no vote did apply pressure. You say I am trying to relieve pressure but I obviously am applying pressure if it convinced you to vote against another townie.

I honestly can't wrap me head around this one. It's just backwards logic in my head. Anyways, your no vote got us past the RVS, that's for sure. I'm really getting a poor town vibe from some particular aspects of each of your posts. I'm pretty happy where my vote is, for the time being.

[barefoot-fighter]

Ok, a lot of things, let's put it in order.

Also, none of the votes above counted because they were pre-game.

I knew that, i was, get this, playing around!

Dude, chill out. No one is out to get you, not even the mafia (they just want to kill you).

Muh316!!! Don't vote for me!! D= I confirmed as soon as I saw it had started confirmation stage. Ok, I was the last non VLA to confirm, but... I was noobing around! I didn't check the site for days, because I heard it would take a few days, so... yeah. If it counts as evidence of my noobiness, you can check my other attempt at queuing. It failed. As in, I didn't confirm at time, so I was replaced.=|

And, I'm innocent.

Hey, Rain, good to have you aboard, and you're a FMA fan! Yay! Not that this will help us defeat the mafia, but anyways...

On a second note, DO NOT TRUST ANYTHING RAIN SAYS HE'S AN IC!!!!
But also it wouldn't be a good idea to linch him if we're not sure, since his insights could be helpful to the town side, if he's not scum.

Thanks for the codes Rain, and Stels too, I would have never thought there was a code for that.
Preview edit: Uhh, there is a button for that, um...

I'm French. Screw you Rain.

Ha! I was hoping someone was French.XD

I'm not voting for T-Bone, doesn't matter if he is French or an Hypno-Toad. No country/species discrimination from me.

[note: joking]


Elyssa, what is Recettear? o.o

@Ellyssa: Oh no you didn't... You did not just say that...

...What did she just say? =O

@Quaroath Why did you say that you knew Split was online at 12:32, yet you say that

An no I have no idea who anyone here is online or offline.

Preview edit: .. never mind, wait, I think we're just reading the line wrong (re Rain's reply too) and he meant "I don't know anyone here, online or offline" as opposed to "I don't know how to tell if anyone here is online or offline"

Never mind, Quar, ignore that bit, but leaving it in there in case anyone else was as confused as me.

"An I have no idea who anyone here is, online or offline."

Commas save lifes.

I was actually in a situation like that once. 10 minutes to deadline and 3 people were only active. I was at l-1 and nobody else was there to vote me. I came at the last minute and self-voted, I figured it was better to get a lynch day 1.

...What? Why do you need a lynch in Day 1?

I don't know how this works for real, but I don't think RVS is really bright or useful. If this was a cartoon, the mafia would be laughing at the mess.

And sorry for the gigantic post.=DOOCMONOREVERSE

[Quaroath]

If we do vote chances are we will be 5 vs 2. And our chances are even worse. And yes, I am really casting a "No Vote"

Just to address this first:

I find it foolish to assume a doc, or a successful doc protect with one, so I'll do this math without a doc factored in.

If we no lynch D1:
N1, Mafia kills someone, down to 6 town, 2 mafia.

D2, We lynch, and miss. after the NK it's 4-2 A mis lynch ends the game, as after the NK it's 2-2. Mafia win.

We get two - three attempts on two mafia. That's very very hard when they only constitute 22% of the players

If we no Lynch D1 and D2:
N1 mafia kills, 6v2, N2 mafia kill, 5v2, one mis lynch results in a mafia win. We get a total of one lynch to gather information.

If we lynch D1 two things happen:

We hit a mafia. It's then 6v1 after the night, and we have D2, D3, and D4 to catch the last mafia assuming poor lynches D2 and D3, D4 is 2 town 1 mafioso.

We hit a townie. Crap. Now it's 5v2, We miss again Day 2. 3v2, we hit, 2v1, D4

Total days and lynches, 4, either way.


I'm not about to throw away a chance to hit scum, not lynching is so much worse for town than lynching a townie it's not funny.

I'm hoping laying it out like this helps explain that while, yes, lynching a townie is bad, not lynching anyone is far far worse.

One no lynch hurts... a lot. And frankly 5v2 is better odds for town than 6v2. 5v2 = 70% vs 30%, 6v2 = 75% vs 25%.

[Jack Forman]

A No Vote would prove beneficial to the town, because there is not enough to go off of to assume anyone is scum.

This is the point of the RVS, in essence. I deeply disagree that a No-Vote is beneficial to town. If we No-Lynch day 1, we only hurt ourselves.

How does keeping a townie alive hurt ourselves?

I'm really getting a poor town vibe from some particular aspects of each of your posts.

How do I have a "poor town vibe" if I am trying to conserve townies? What do you mean I have a poor town vibe?

One no lynch hurts... a lot. And frankly 5v2 is better odds for town than 6v2. 5v2 = 70% vs 30%, 6v2 = 75% vs 25%.

6 vs 2 is worse? really? I see more town vs scum means a better chance at finding the scum on D2. I don't want to No Lynch day 2.

[Stels]

@Ellyssa: I was happy that someone besides me actually played Recettear. I was amazed, that's all.
@Jack Forman: RVS usually gets us to a start, going from nowhere to somewhere. There is no such a thing as a RVS leading to a lynch straightaway in Newbie game, so there should be no fear to vote for whoever to get us to a start... Right now, what I have concluded about you so far is that you are afraid of the consequences that your actions will bear. Not exactly a scum-tell, but IMO you're being rather too cautious.
UNVOTE: T-Bone
VOTE: Jack Forman
@Quaroath: please use my given username instead of axing the spelling of it and hope to get away with it. "T" and "K" are miles apart on the keyboard, so I think you're just doing it on purpose now.

[Quaroath]

Ebwop: the quote in my last post was something jack said, not Ellyssa. I botched the tag when I cut the post I quoted down

[Quaroath]

And Stels I do apologize. I don't know how but I really got it in my head your name was/is skels. So while it was on purpose, I was just being a retard and couldn't keep your name straight in my head.

[Ellyssa]

@Quaroath #53 Okay firstly, just to be sure, I didn't make that quote, that was Jack and your quote tags got a little upside down there.

@Barefoot Recettear is a computer game; It's where Stels' quote (in his 'location' field below his name) of "Capitalism, ho!" is from.

@Jack What additional chance is there if we all vote no-lynch on Day 1 and lose a townie on Night 1 and go back into D2 with not much more info? People tend to crack under pressure and make a slip or scum tells, and those are what we need to root out the Mafia among us. You're right in that if we rush for a quick lynch then we get no more info and likely lose a townie, but, that's exactly the same if we go for a quick no-lynch. We have three whole weeks (I think) to discuss this and come up with a consensus on the best first lynch.. it's not like RVS will rush us into a quick lynch, or that we have a couple days to come up with something. Now if we are nearing the end of the three weeks and still no one sticks out like a sore thumb, then perhaps, we could consider that, but this early into the three week period?

UNVOTE
FoS: Jack Forman

I don't know if you're Mafia yet, you may well not be and I don't totally disagree with your points, but consider it a mild pressure suspicion vote for now, and moving my vote away from my first RVS one, since at least my posts are out of RVS now. The thing is just that, whether you intend it or not, I believe the consensus is that the best play for Mafia on D1 is a no lynch. (See http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=No_Lynch if you haven't.)

Preview edit: Since Stels already has one on you, I'm not going to put a 3rd one on just yet without letting you reply further. Since that would be L-2 with 9 players.. nonetheless, unvoting with intent of future vote because my posts are no longer RVS.

@Stels Ah!

[Ellyssa]

Er, belated post-dinner add: he is already at L-2 I think due to an early RVS vote, I think, so luckily I didn't vote, that would have been L-1.

[barefoot-fighter]

...I was supposed to hit the "preview" button. Crap. Promise my next post will be clearer. Please ignore the stupid "testing codes text" at the bottom.

~~

Considering it's 7v2, yes that is true. 78% change, rounded. IT's self evident, yet you need to point it out. Scum likes to state the obvious while trying to seem like they are contributing.

He just said we would likely lyinch a townie because, well, that is his point. You're turning two out of nine into percentages, there's no use for that, no need to point it out.

So obviously my no vote did apply pressure. You say I am trying to relieve pressure but I obviously am applying pressure if it convinced you to vote against another townie.

I honestly can't wrap me head around this one. It's just backwards logic in my head. Anyways, your no vote got us past the RVS, that's for sure.

Let me help you. His no lynch vote got us past RVS, right? So he applyed pressure. He brought up a reason for a logic vote, even if it was by making himself guilty in your eyes.

~~

Just to address this first:

I find it foolish to assume a doc, or a successful doc protect with one, so I'll do this math without a doc factored in.

If we no lynch D1:
N1, Mafia kills someone, down to 6 town, 2 mafia.

D2, We lynch, and miss. after the NK it's 4-2 A mis lynch ends the game, as after the NK it's 2-2. Mafia win.

We get two - three attempts on two mafia. That's very very hard when they only constitute 22% of the players

If we no Lynch D1 and D2:
N1 mafia kills, 6v2, N2 mafia kill, 5v2, one mis lynch results in a mafia win. We get a total of one lynch to gather information.

If we lynch D1 two things happen:

We hit a mafia. It's then 6v1 after the night, and we have D2, D3, and D4 to catch the last mafia assuming poor lynches D2 and D3, D4 is 2 town 1 mafioso.

We hit a townie. Crap. Now it's 5v2, We miss again Day 2. 3v2, we hit, 2v1, D4

Total days and lynches, 4, either way.


I'm not about to throw away a chance to hit scum, not lynching is so much worse for town than lynching a townie it's not funny.

I'm hoping laying it out like this helps explain that while, yes, lynching a townie is bad, not lynching anyone is far far worse.

One no lynch hurts... a lot. And frankly 5v2 is better odds for town than 6v2. 5v2 = 70% vs 30%, 6v2 = 75% vs 25%.

I have to disagree here. First of all, I can't get your first sentence into my head, be it punctuation or what. I think you find it easier to do the math without doctors and cops, and I have to agree with you there.
Second, I think the main point is at the end, where you state "5v2 is better odds for town than 6v2", and again the percentages. Less townies makes better odds of hitting mafia in a random lynch, but less townies also means

mafia has the upper hand

. Of course it is unavoidable, but let's not kill eachother for a better chance of randomly hitting mafia.=/ I think Jack and I are concerned on keeping town alive, and you are unsettle by standing still for the moment.

Can I try this tree of possible outcomes, too? I did read yours. I'll use colours for easy following (and because it looks neat )
D1 starts with 7x2, no matter what we do.
Then either

we lynch

or

we don't

. _{Yes I'm doing angel/devil, because I'm 3 yrs old.}

By D2, we'll be 6x2.
Then we lynch, we'll probably have reasonable material by then. No one's suggesting we don't lynch EVER, just that not lynching at Day 1 isn't bad for town. Question is, do we hit a mafia? Well, by this point it is not random anymore, maybe we have a clue on who's mafia.
If we miss, the outcome is 4x2. By D3.
If we nail the bastard, we get to 5x1. D3.

By D2, we're 5x2.
Lynching the wrong person then would result in the score: 3x2, by D3.
Lynching the right person then would result in the score: 5x1. By D3.

From 4x2, at D3, we can get to either 2x2, which is

lose

; or 3x1, which is game on, if I'm not mistaken.
From 5x1, we can get to the results:

WIN

(5x0) or 3x1, same as above outcome.
This is D4. The possible outcomes are 1 quarter win, 1 quarter lose and half game goes on with 3x1.

Starting with 3x2 we can go to 2x2 (

lose

before nightkill) or 2x1, which is the climax of mafia!=O
Now with 5x1, we have

WIN!

(5x0) and 3x1, which leads us to Day 4.
At D4, we can either: lose, win, go on with 2x1, go on with 3x1.

I don't think I need to go further (though it would be fun ), the only difference between the possible outcomes of a no-lynch in Day 1 and lynching then is one outcome we get when we lynch in day one, 2x1, mafia-climax Day Four. That should happen if we hit a townie in Day One, then again in Day Two, then lynch a mafia in Day Three. Again, some will differ whether 2x1 is better than 3x1. It

is

more fun, high-tension type, but the day before that, 3x2, can also lead to losing. And losing is bad.

~~

So yay! Anoher wall post!
_{I think next time I'll choose a darker blue...}

[splitfarvle]

I don't agree with a no lynch on D1 either, at least not this early. As others have said, votes put pressure on a player and can also provide information based on patterns. It seems to me like it's most crucial to get everyone involved and voting on Day one especially since it's likely some of us won't see Day two. The more information we have, the better, and that probably contributes more to winning the game long-term.

@Jack: Are you going to vote no lynch no matter what?

Unvote

my joke vote.

[barefoot-fighter]

And Stels I do apologize. I don't know how but I really got it in my head your name was/is skels.

Maybe it's because he is

skum

.

_{...bear with me}

[Alduskkel]

Vote Count

Jack Forman (3) - Rain, Quaroath, Stels
barefootfighter (1) - muh316

Not Voting (5) - barefoot-fighter, Jack Forman, T-Bone, Ellyssa, splitfarvle

With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch.

If you want to vote for no lynch, say so. I will not be accepting

Vote: No Vote

as a vote for no lynch, as it sounds more like

Unvote

.

[barefoot-fighter]

VOTE: Muh316

>=(

[Ellyssa]

@Barefoot #60 Two quick things that jumped out at me immediately..

1) I agree Jack brought us past RVS

real

quick, which is nice.

2) I think you may have also missed the situation where we hit a Mafia in D1, so it immediately goes to 6/1 on D2, and that tree will give us a lot more win possibilities and thus skew your final red D4 results a bit.

The thing is though, these votes are not going out randomly, and we have three whole weeks to make the decision so trying to rush to a no-lynch right off the bat, seems so weird. As is your support of him seemingly wanting a quick D1 no-lynch.. because it's in Mafia interest to have as little discussion as possible, whereas a town's most powerful weapon is their day vote (which no-lynch negates) and their discussion.

Now you didn't actually cast a no-lynch vote yet (though technically Jack's just got nulled too due to phrasing) so I don't know if you're also pushing to convince enough others for a quick no-lynch. I think between Jack and you on this case, Jack still seems a little scummier to me because the phrasing of his:

I am only thinking that I am a town person or supposed to appear to be a town person, just like you.

That entire paragraph frankly makes me a bit nervous, as though it were meant to play on and drum up the uncertainty, but I do not want to put him into L-1 so early into our day. A quick Mafia hammer or jittery townsperson and we not only lose a player, but also valuable discussion time.

That is why for now I'll VOTE: barefoot-fighter as pressure/disagreement against your point, even though I consider Jack more suspicious. If we were closer to the deadline or I were more convinced, I'd vote Jack to L-1. But if one of you gets lynched down the road and flips Mafia, I think the other will definitely look a bit more suspicious due to this exchange of words and support.

Also heh, at the OMGUS on Muh. That would totally have been on me if I had typed this faster!

[barefoot-fighter]

wha-
Pressure received: success.

I didn't miss that situation, it's just that Day One lynch is random, and suited to hit a townie. Since the other lynchs aren't random, as you pointed out, I considered hitting mafia even if the odds are low.

AND JUST TO CLEAR IT UP, NO ONE SAID

QUICK

NO-LYNCH. This is no quick-vote. D=

Hm, why don't you want to put him into L-1? You don't want to lynch a townie, right? That is our reasoning.

And I'm supporting him as an instinct, 'cause suddenly everyone turned against him for being too cautious. And I still share his view. But... If he turns out to be mafia (no offense here, but I think he is acting too nooby to be mafia), I'm not lying for him! D=

Muh kept his RVS vote on me! _{that's just mean...}

[Quaroath]

Saying the day 1 lynch is random is a fallacy.

[barefoot-fighter]

No it's not, we barely have any information yet.

[Rain]

@barefoot-fighter
In a 3x1 scenario, the correct solution is to No Lynch, if only because if you mislynch, mafia wins. Also, much of your (amongst other people's, really) number crunching assumes incorrectly that lynches are distributed randomly. Lynch candidates are chosen for their pitiful defense, or lack thereof. Of their paranoia. Of the dynamics established between known town or mafia people (confirmed town/mafia occurs when a claimed cop reveals his investigations, from day lynches, or from night deaths). Mislynching on D1 is unfortunate but a necessary risk if you want to catch scum.

@Jack Forman
The reasons for No Lynch are plainly anti-town, if not scummy. It is true that a lynch is likelier to target town than scum on D1. However, this logic applies up to LyLo (a situation called Lynch or Lose, where you have 2n+1 people alive and n denotes the number of scums alive). Worst case scenario, we mislynch everyday for 2 days before we reach LyLo. If we spend even one day not lynching, we can only afford 1 mislynch before MyLo, in which case we'd have to NL again, to be at LyLo. In other words, if we decide on NL for D1, we have to hit scum within our 2 first lynches whereas if we lynch every day, our chances of survival depends on hitting scum within our first 3 lynches. Please remember that the town has control over who dies to lynches whereas mafia has total control to who dies at night.

My experience with newbies says that they usually consider NL to be safe, which is unfortunate because that's pretty scummy. However, stubbornness is a fairly strong town tell.

By the way, barefoot, what you did there is called fence sitting. If you (or any player) needs clarification on what it is and why is it scummy, just ask.

Unvote
Vote: barefoot-fighter

[Ellyssa]

My experience with newbies says that they usually consider NL to be safe, which is unfortunate because that's pretty scummy. However, stubbornness is a fairly strong town tell.

By the way, barefoot, what you did there is called fence sitting. If you (or any player) needs clarification on what it is and why is it scummy, just ask.

@Rain What is/what aspect of that is fence-sitting? I don't see that in the wiki anywhere, and they both (and I don't mean to put either of Jack or barefoot down for difference of opinion, sorry you two) seem stubborn, heh. And/or confused about the length of Day 1 or something. Thanks for explaining the No-lynch thing though.

[barefoot-fighter]

I am scared.

What the hell did I get more votes than Jack? What.

I know lynches are not random, I think only Day 1 lynches are, right? Because we have no solid info.

I'm confused (and too much information, trying to catch up), if you don't lynch with 3x1, you'll get to 2x1. If you mis-lynch, mafia wins, too. Wait, I get it, 2x1 is LyLo! *winner* Are you saying the odds of getting it right are better? Since it's not random, well, at that point in the game you probably have strong feelings against someone. It makes sense. Didn't think of that. But letting a townie die is not intuitive! D=

When you got to MyLo you lost me.)=

I know your numbers and your theory are right, I'm just trying to follow them.
"In other words, if we decide on NL for D1, we have to hit scum within our 2 first lynches whereas if we lynch every day, our chances of survival depends on hitting scum within our first 3 lynches. " These numbers are good, though I still don't get them. Just give me some time and I'll go "oooohhhh!!!". My main problem is that lynching a townie in the first day makes our numbers good, but - kills a townie! I want to keep throwing stuff around until we get something heavier from someone.

Fence-sitting means taking no sides? Because I'm not sure Jack's not mafia? I'm not, he could be! Don't think so, otherwise I'd vote for him, but if he is and I'm mistaken, I'm not giving my word he's not.

high tension
Though it's kinda thrilling to get involved in the game like this. In my first game. But don't lynch me, gah!

[Quaroath]

I am scared.

What the hell did I get more votes than Jack? What.

I know lynches are not random, I think only Day 1 lynches are, right? Because we have no solid info.

They are informed decisions, if it was random we'd just roll a 9 sided die, and string someone up.
We may be interpreting things incorrectly, and we might lynch a townie,

but it is not random.

For the love of Pete stop calling it random, that is false. (see above post re:fallacy)

I'm confused (and too much information, trying to catch up), if you don't lynch with 3x1, you'll get to 2x1. If you mis-lynch, mafia wins, too. Wait, I get it, 2x1 is LyLo! *winner* Are you saying the odds of getting it right are better? Since it's not random, well, at that point in the game you probably have strong feelings against someone. It makes sense. Didn't think of that. But letting a townie die is not intuitive! D=

3x1 is not LyLo

technically

but it is Lynch

correctly

or lose. No Lynching takes it too 2v1, and removes a suspect. I'd rather play the 33% game than the 25% game, even without accounting for gathered information. It may seem wrong but it's the right play. I do agree it's counter intuitive. One of those few times No-Lynch is the right call. The townie that dies to a mislynch D1 is just as much a winner as the last townie NK'd. We win or lose as a team. That also brings me back to Jack not wanting to vote, etc etc, and why I was so hard on him about it.

My main problem is that lynching a townie in the first day makes our numbers good, but - kills a townie! I want to keep throwing stuff around until we get something heavier from someone.

The reality is we are probably going to string up a townie or two, the odds are low barring either A.) Spectacular town play, or B.) really sad scum play, that we don't. It's a sad cruel world out there Plus we have what.. three weeks to talk and make informed choices? We'll keep tossing stuff around and extraction information. I can't imagine us making a decision as a group this soon.

Fence-sitting means taking no sides? Because I'm not sure Jack's not mafia? I'm not, he could be! Don't think so, otherwise I'd vote for him, but if he is and I'm mistaken, I'm not giving my word he's not.

Pretty much, fence sitting is ensuring you can safely land on either side of an issue, depending on how others react. You seem to be setting yourself up for a "Well if A is scum, i thought so too" or a "Well if A flips town, I told you so." line after an alignment flip.

Rain can probably explain this better, it's just what I feel you are doing re: Jack

[Ellyssa]

@barefoot/Quaroath I think the point here, as Quaroath said, is that it's not exactly random - or rather, it's no less random than lynching someone on D2 as either way it'll be a "best guess" scenario based on the info we have at that moment. Even with a dead corpse the first night and the ability to see all his/her posts as coming from a confirmed townie, that doesn't tell us anything more about the Mafia. It would be essentially random if we lynched them on 1 day of "real life" time's worth of evidence, but Day 1 in the game lasts three whole weeks, which is why Jack's move seemed scummy - to try to work toward convincing the town to close off Day 1 immediately on his first real post, with a push toward no lynch right out of RVS, that implies he's very eager to get to night.

Plus you can sometimes tell who the Mafia is by forcing them to vote - if not immediately, then certainly later on in the game when you look back at votes and their reasoning. Wasn't really able to find many resources on a quick search on the forums, but here and here are some decent reads on the theory.

@Jack Forman Where do you stand on the no lynch issue now, since Ald decided the phrasing of your initial vote nullified it, and with the conversation above, would you still revote no lynch?

@muh You have the other, third vote on barefoot currently, that was placed, I believe, during the RVS. Will that be your vote now that we're out of it, as well?

@T-Bone You're the only one who hasn't voted at all yet, outside of Jack's mis-vote. Not that you have to right away, but curious if you had any thoughts on people (when you get back around to the thread of course, it hasn't even been a day yet, just don't want you to feel left out!).


As for me, outside of her numbers analysis, I think barefoot's trying too hard to seem innocent/stay alive, but not sure if that's more of a worried newbie townie or scum brand of "wanting to stay alive" tell. I do see why fence-sitting in general would seem scummy though. Kind of a nervous reaction and trying too hard to stay neutral.

But even discounting that, I'm comfortable with where my vote is at the moment (on barefoot), but if she goes to L-1 this early in the day, then I will switch over to Jack (if that wouldn't in turn put him at L-1), as they're about equally suspicious to me at the moment.

[T-Bone]

First, I was trying to come across my last post as a joke.

My thoughts so far. I think, in 2011, Voting for a No Lynch is no longer a scum tell. In all the games I have ever played, only once has I ever seen someone who is scum offer a no lynch vote. Why? Because people are scarred to throw out the "obvious scum-tells" for fear of getting lynched.

I agree with Jack slightly. We have a high percentage of chance of hitting town and going 5 v 2 in Day 2. However, I don't agree with saying "Well this day is stupid, NO LYNCH!" Jack, there's a deadline for a reason. Riding the pine till deadline and creating good discussion is a much better option. If we no lynch at that point, so be it. It's a No lynch well spent.

However, something that I've noticed that is becoming a scum tell to replace the voting no lynch one, is the people who jump on the player for voting a no lynch. Usually the second or third person. That would be Stels or Ellyssa. (Yes I'm aware Rain has a vote on Jack too, but his was pre-no vote. I'm also aware Quaroth has a vote on him too) However in this case I'm gonna Vote: Stels, because of the way he just slipped onto the bandwagon.

Vote: Stels

Separate line for you Mod. Aren't I great?