Mini 1122: Mafia.Exe Game Over

[Xine]

Mute's comment about bussing is bugging me. the first time he said it could totally be a slip, but to make a point to reiterate the he is being bussed by Llama is just weird. I checked Mute out, and he has played enough games around here to know what the word means.
Mute, I'm gonna give you a chance to explain that before I cast my vote for you.

as far as Krazy vs GreyICE, Krazy has a simple story, and he is sticking to it. GreyICE has a story that bounces all over the place, and is anything but simple. he has so much nitty gritty detail that I would be inclined to take it as truth, except that he has reviled

1:

He loves Gambits,

2:

he is a talented creative writer. That being said, I stand beside my plan to not cast a vote for either of them today.
btw, GreyICE, you were very angry with my plan, saying you did not want to spend another night role blocked? I thought you assumed (as do I, if your claim is honest) that you will be dead in the morning.

[GreyICE]

No, because as soon as I am dead Krazy gets himself lynched, and that confirms me as town and confirms everything I said in the thread as being said with a town motive, and confirms Krazy as scum and everything he said as coming from scum. Moreover, Krazy is getting lynched today. If you have more time to coach him in the QT, he MIGHT be able to get me lynched which, if we mislynch today, is pretty much that.

They can just Roleblock me and leave me here spinning my wheels. Not happening, Xine. But thanks for confirming

Anyway, since Krazy's last post does not actually scream "I'm scum, lynch me!" I'll just lay out the case and sequence of events again.

1) I'm the town doctor
2) I wanted the maximum survival chances. From yesterday, me or DRK was the NK, and I wanted to ensure it was DRK, and maximize my survival time.
3) Hence pulling the trigger on the PGO gambit I set up on about page 3.

I protected DRK. Did a lot of in-thread work to ensure that he was eating the NK, and I can show you some of it, but it basically involves subtle slights on most of the other likely candidates. Neruz starting the bgg wagon rolling made it really, really easy though. I protected him.

That's the facts and events of day 1 and night 1. Now check out my posts #771 where I vote for Krazy and explain the target.

Was it cryptic? Yes. It was a trap. I wanted to ensure I got scum, and I did.

Vote: Krazy

Not CONFIRMED Neruz if he doesn't flip Roleblocker, but likely anyway. Llama looks town, but he can be tricky. Mute... possible. But I'm not sure.

If you're looking for explanations later: DeathRowKitty.

Why did I write that before the cop claim? Because everything I have said was true. Why would I write that as scum? Not one motive at all.

Krazy will flip scum. I will flip town doctor. To you, these are unconfirmed. To me, these are the simple facts, and I am more than willing to demonstrate everything I did to survive as a town power role, and everything I did to ensure my power role would be useful. If you're unconvinced, ask away.

[TheButtonmen]

@Marble: Do you want to wait for TheButtonman to post something?

Everyone's welcome to post stuff and I don't demand a quicklynch or anything like that, but I personally feel ready to go ahead with the next day so I probably won't do much thorough reading until D3.

Stop being lazy.

Unvote; Vote: GreyIce.

I'm calling bullshit.

Scum gambiting a cop claim to get you lynched would make sense if your PGO claim was true as they would have to trade one for one to kill you and by gambiting they get a mislynch and a one for one. However for your story to work they need to have roleblocked you, thus disproving your PGO status, there is absolutely no reason for them to initiate a one for one.

Now let's say Krazy is absolutely pants on head retarded and is gambiting scum like you say he is, why are you so adamant that you don't get lynched? If your town your lynch hands us scum, one for one is always an amazing trade. Your desperation to live is scummy as hell, your story is a hell of a lot more complex then Krazys, there is no reason for scum to one for one and worst case scenario with your lynch we have a confirmed scum tomorrow.

[TheButtonmen]

EBWOP: Unvote; Vote: GreyICE

[Neruz]

[Scum gambiting a cop claim to get you lynched would make sense if your PGO claim was true as they would have to trade one for one to kill you and by gambiting they get a mislynch and a one for one. However for your story to work they need to have roleblocked you, thus disproving your PGO status, there is absolutely no reason for them to initiate a one for one.

I've read this paragraph four times now and it still doesn't make any sense.

[pappums rat]

krazy saying neruz wanted him to be quiet is strange.
mute saying llamarble was bussing him is as well.
greyice's story is somewhat farfetched now that i look back at it tbqh. that is a lot that would all have had to happen as you say it.
however, i can see krazy as a scum sacrifice to take down one of the better players in the game.
i still need to think more about it before i lay down a vote.

[TheButtonmen]

however, i can see krazy as a scum sacrifice to take down one of the better players in the game.

Scum doesn't need to sacrifice players, they can just NK.

[Scum gambiting a cop claim to get you lynched would make sense if your PGO claim was true as they would have to trade one for one to kill you and by gambiting they get a mislynch and a one for one. However for your story to work they need to have roleblocked you, thus disproving your PGO status, there is absolutely no reason for them to initiate a one for one.

I've read this paragraph four times now and it still doesn't make any sense.

Krazy claims a guilty on GreyIce.
GreyIce is claiming that Krazy is gambiting scum.

That makes zero sense, why would scum voluntarly trade one for one. Back when GreyIce setup his possible PGO claim it would have made sense as scum already loses a member by killing him so they may as well get a mislynch out of it as well but for GreyIce's story to work scum needs to have roleblocked him thus scum would know he wasn't a PGO so they could just NK him.

[Hiraki]

@Hiraki: some questionable logic from Neruz doesn't change the fact that Krazy is pretty clearly scum.

But you realize that he has some questionable logic.

...

?

[GreyICE]

I refuse to believe TBM and Xine are scum together at this point. Xine's reaction is such a classic scum reaction. "Lets leave it for tomorrow." Like "today is going poorly, lets see if we can regroup in the QT and make it work."

TBM has come out boldly, completely, and clearly for lynching the town doctor over scum. That's quite something for a scum player to manage, especially if he's watching his second partner throw her life away. The way he 'metaed' and then produced zero results of the meta for either me or Krazy was very poor, but I just don't see a scum Buttonman throw his life into a thresher that's going to eat two of his teammates.

Llamarble looks a lot, lot better bet for #3. His vote for Krazy was FUCKING AWFUL. It says "well he's fucked up. Shit." He has a strong loyalty to his team, and the way that my scumdar is going off on Xine (and his is just as good) means that 2+2 ain't equalling 4 on that one.

But if Xine flips town all bets are off on that, since Buttonman could be easily running screening and counting on Xine to get mislynched.

To be clear, I'd very, very strongly prefer that you lynch Krazy and I die tonight, since it'll suck moose if you lynch me and then lynch Krazy tomorrow. Does it mean an autoloss if I'm lynched? No. But I don't like being mislynched, I doubly don't like being mislynched as a power role, and while I take it as a compliment that the scum threw out one of their (admittedly nigh-useless) team members to get me, I'm not

Floor is still open. Pappums, Hiraki, whoever... any questions? I've said it three times now - if there's any part of my story that isn't clear or anything you want to know from yesterday, I'll tell you. There's no mysteries at this point, my power role is out for once and for all, and I'll answer whatever you want to know about my play and what I did yesterday.

[GreyICE]

*I'm not willing to roll over and die just because of a fake cop claim.

that's how that should end.

[Nathanael]

I think it is clear we have to lynch either Krazy or GreyICE.
For the whole duration of Day 1, I had a good feeling that GreyICE is town, and had a quite scummy vibe from Krazy.
but, now things have to be reconsidered.
First, in my experience, cops tend to play scummier than the average townie for two reasons:
a) they have almost the same motivation to stay alive (contrast with a VT) will therefore commit more survive-oriented(vs. hunting-oriented) scumtells (especially, because they have or know that they can get more information than the average townie)
b) they can always, even if they do scummy things, save themselves by a claim. this means they will tend to play sub-optimally in order to not draw NK's
now, up to this point, I have just shown, that Krazy's scummy day1 is explainable almost as well with a cop than with a doc. With this in mind, I think we can focus on the role-interactions (PGO,doc,cop,RB,...) starting almost unbiased between Krazy and GreyICE

We are now in a curious scenario, where all possible cases (there are 2 of them) are unlikely, and I see a lot of the argument of this thread finally come down to <his story is improbable>.
the only statistically useful thing is to compare the two cases.
1: Krazy is scum fakeclaiming cop out of the blue, GreyICE is a doc, who gambitted 1shot-PGO possibility, there is a scum RB who blocked GreyICE
1a: scum didn't believe the PGO-possibility
1b: scum believed the PGO-possibility and decided to trade in a roleblocker (could be Krazy himself) in order to have a good shot at DRK
2: GreyICE is scum fakeclaiming cop after preparing it for a while together with a fake 1shot-PGO possibility-claim, Krazy ignored the PGO-possibility because he though PGO's are non normal, copped GreyICE.

Now, let's look at some implications:
assume 1b. I think it is clear, that doctor-PGO is non-normal, therefore scum would at this point believe that GreyICE isn't a doc. there is then, however, absolutely no reason for them to sacrifice a teammate, since DRK would die anyway. so I think this case is impossible.
so, in either of both cases, we have the component <Krazy ignored/didn't believe the PGO-claim> (in the first case because of 1a in the second because of Krazy's, truthful if we assume this case, statement). So this point against Krazy is moot. we still don't have to forget, that it is more unlikely that the rest of the scumteam assumed too, that PGO was out of the question (I'm going to assume that there is a 3-man scumteam, since there is no evidence which suggests otherwise)

so we are left with:
1: Krazy is scum fakeclaiming cop out of the blue (A), GreyICE is a doc(H), who gambitted 1shot-PGO possibility (B), there is a scum RB(Ca) who blocked GreyICE (Cb), both of Krazy's scumpartners didn't believe the PGO-claim (D)
vs.
2: Krazy is a cop (G) GreyICE is scum fakeclaiming doc after preparing it for a while together with a fake 1shot-PGO possibility-claim (E), Krazy copped GreyICE as if he hadn't seen the PGO-claim (F).

I think (Cb) looked like an almost a null assumption to me at first glance, but rethinking it it isn't at all:
since if the scumteam didn't believe the PGO-claim, then they certainly believed the doc-claim, so (assuming Ca) they had the option between killing and blocking GreyICE. Now, honestly, since DRK hadn't really given any PR-vibes to me (this is subjective of course) I assume, that his kill wasn't a PR-hunt. this turns Cb into <this scumteam prefers to block the doc rather than killing him even if there is no other possible PR around>(Cc)
Assuming G, I claim that F is quite likely. First, I noted that quite some people (me included) saw GreyICE as rather townie, while Krazy seemed much more on the null-to-scummy-side. Now, I think that if I were a town cop (assumption G), this would exactly be the kind of person who's alignment I'd like to know. (*)
I also think that B and E have a rather similar probability (this I think, is the weakest point in this analysis, I'd love to hear comments about it), because both include a gambit made for similar reasons (town reason: prevent being NK'd; scum reason: prevent being investigated.) Especially considering the position in the town GreyICE had, I think he could almost equally fear NK or investigation (for town or for scum respectively)
Now, I think we can drop G,H and Ca from the list of assumptions as those are basically setup-speculation and role distributions.
What we are left with, is A+D+Cc vs. F, where F is extremely weak by argument (*). I think even a difference in evaluation between B and E couldn't tip the scale to the other side at this point.

this is funny, I started typing with the objective to prove that 1 is likelier than 2, but I think that after this analysis it is clear that it is exactly the other way round
I think at this point, I am going to vote by statistical likelihood, as I think I can trust that more than my reads off the extremely chaotic last pages.
UNVOTE: VOTE: GreyICE


actually, I think I forgot an assumption for 2: <Krazy thought claiming cop with one guilty is a good play>. Now, I think, I would have claimed with a guilty (especially with a guilty on GreyICE, who was a quite pro-town looking player more dangerous than the average scum)
So, I think this isn't a heavy assumption. I think it is worth less than Cc. So even canceling those two, we would still be left with A+D vs. F.

[GreyICE]

The problem with that analysis is CBA the scumteam has to run. If I'm a PGO, and intercept their night kill, it's 9:2, and they have to get four mislynches to win (exactly like a day 1 scum lynch). If I kill their roleblocker, it's 8:2, and they need three mislynches to win. So if they are unsure of the PGO claim, a roleblock makes sense. It turns me into a VT if I'm a doctor, and if I'm a PGO they don't lose too much - as long as their Roleblocker is scummy. Which is why it's Krazy who is the roleblocker. They're throwing him away on this gambit, which is why TBM is not scum - they're not going to throw their entire team away on this.

[GreyICE]

In any case, fairly good to have you playing and making cases. You'll learn a little about why you need to add some basic motivation psychology into your logic after my flip (which is happening before tomorrow whether you lynch me or not), but good posting.

Nath is town.

[GreyICE]

Then again, TBM's argument that I should just roll over and accept my mislynch is kinda fucking crap. You NEVER accept a mislynch as town. EVER. I KNOW FOR A FACT that Krazy is scum, and I will do anything and everything to make sure that he is dead. Self voting and giving up is for scum once you realized that anything you do might out your buddies.

TBM

If you're town, I want you to read over this game after me or Krazy flips, and realize exactly how utterly and completely useless you've been. And as a reward for coming out strongly in favor of lynching town over scum, I want you to fucking go back through and step up your gameplay. At this point I think the town would be better off if you were chesskid. Agree to this?

[Llamarble]

Eh, I feel like it's pretty easy for scum to say X claimed cop with guilty on Y, most of the time this means Y is guilty; VOTE Y. So I wouldn't hand TBM or Nath clear townreads yet. Scum also love to use "this is logically what we have to do" as an excuse. It's the easiest way to lie since it requires no creativity, just analysis and a bit of twisting.

What I think happened is the scum decided a trade of a heavily suspected member for the most obvtown & best scumhunting townie (who also happened to be a claimed PR of some kind) would be a huge benefit to them. 3 townies die for the price of one scum, and lynches will be fast, reducing content, since the hunting will just be "do I believe X or Y." Townies also often do things they can be attacked for later in such situations where as scum who know what is going on can tailor their play to look townish after.

Of course there's the secondary possibility Grey & Krazyteam had some information or were willing to risk no cop/doc combo in an effort to confirm one of them as town, but that doesn't matter since we're lynching scum today anyway in that case.

[Llamarble]

BTW Mute voting me while thinking Krazy is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense.

[Mute]

Hmm...

If you have more time to coach him in the QT, he MIGHT be able to get me lynched which, if we mislynch today, is pretty much that.

Grey, this was said in the present tense. Where is it said that scum have day-talk? I can't even ask you "did you mean he was coached on what to do N1" because you've worded this like you have.
Also from that same post:

They can just Roleblock me and leave me here spinning my wheels. Not happening, Xine. But thanks for confirming

If you claim doc you'll be scum's #1 NK target. What reason would there be for scum in keeping a protective role alive? It would make sense to keep blocking you and killing others, but I don't buy that personally.
Like I said before, I'll believe your role claims if you had the option of picking either or during Twilight or N1. I know a role like that's not farfetched.

@Xine:
Most of his case on me is, with regards to me, I feel weak. Not going to try and challenge his case against ant as A) I'd do the same if I were him (attacking a playerslot I felt was held by scum), and B) I can't know what ant had going on in his mind.

I guess I should explain why AntMute is scum.

If bgg is our lynch for today and he does flip town, I am thinking Surprise_Carcinogen and Hiraki might be scum.

Lines up lynches & attacks soft townie targets.

A pattern that continued with a Neruz vote

(and later by Mute going after my soft lurkerflesh).

I felt like the scumresponse to the bgg wagon would be to set up townielynches for the next couple days based on it while letting it happen.
Mute waited to bus Krazy until his gambit had clearly already failed, then placed L-1 with reasoning that didn't explain his vehemence level.

First bolded: When was wanting to not lynch obvtownVI and wanting to lynch scum D1 bad?
Second, I've not 'lined up lynches' and the "soft townie targets" thing is lame as I've only gone after people I suspect are scum. Scum are just as liable, if not in their better interest, to not post as much and avoid slipping. So calling my vote on him with one of the backings to it that I'm voting for a lurker being a bad case is laughable.

---
Expanding on that:

@Marble: Do you want to wait for TheButtonman to post something?

Everyone's welcome to post stuff and I don't demand a quicklynch or anything like that, but I personally feel ready to go ahead with the next day so I probably won't do much thorough reading until D3.

@Llama: why do you feel like you won't need to do much reading until D3? Are you saying you'd like to, as scum, sit back and not draw attention to yourself, then wait for a D2 wrap-up in the QT, or that, as town, you don't feel like anything but a krazy lynch will occur? For me the former makes sense, but in the latter I can't understand a townie

ever

saying they don't want to know what's going on in the game.
Plus the entire statement he makes is contradictory. "Sure I wouldn't mind waiting for the night to come but I've already got my evening tea brewing so I'mma go take care of that toodles." You might not demand a quicklynch but nothing says you aren't against it so as to hear more from the other players/the ones in the spotlight.
Earlier on you said

Krazy is at

L-2

. 2 more votes gogo!
Though we should wait for everyone to at least weigh in.

So, which was/is it?


And there was something about this post by Llama that made me curious about the Krazy/Grey thing.

Yay, the day returned just as I did!
DRKtown & BGGtown make me think Krazy is indeed scum. DRK was very suspicious of Krazy and then died.

Krazy spent all day tunneling town

and attacking people I have town reads on without really explaining.

He did explain why bgg was scummy, but that was a pretty easy situation for scum to fake a case in. And he was in the middle of the bggwagon, as scum often are.

At the moment I think GreyIce is piss-poor town, but if bgg flips town (and Xine by relation) then GreyIce would be in my top 3 with Llamarble and Hiraki.

This, coupled with tunneling on bgg looks like a plan to lynch the easy townie and follow it up by attacking other players all of whom look town to me.

I don't see how a bgg townflip exonerates Xine at all; she was hardly reluctant to lynch him. Greedling didn't do anything except wagon Xine though (a reason I found him suspicious yesterday), so Krazyscum doesn't necessarily imply Xinescum regardless.

VOTE: Krazy

Like Grey, some wheels in my head started spinning and gears grinding. What follows are my thoughts in no real order:
The underlined: only scum know's for sure who is and isn't town. Llama makes a point-blank statement "Krazy was tunneling town." The only way we can be sure a person is town is via a flip, unless you're scum where you know the people are town. Llama slipping here a bit?
This post pointed out a summation of Krazy's antics, and from a scum standpoint that he'd make an easy mislynch. The "yay day returned just as I did" comment felt out of place, but other than a gut feeling that line's nothing by itself.
But his comment on krazy attacking llama's town reads. From what I got of Llama's ISO 15 his reads are:

Town:
Me
DRK
GreyICE
Neruz

Unsure:
Redacted
Nathanael
SC (now pappums rat)
Hiraki
Ant (now me)

Scummy
MME
bgg
Xine
Greedling

Llama was right, Krazy does go after most of Llama's town reads, looking back through Krazy's ISO.
Something came up that got me thinking initially.. Krazy subbed in for Greedling after Llama posted his reads. I wanted to look back and check out greed's posts, and the whole two of them were useless: a vote for Grey and a vote for Xine... wait, a vote for grey?
Something caught my eye:

Well, I was hoping I would feel a lot better about Neruz, Llama, and GreyIce after getting a chance to talk to them a bit. The constant refrain of innocence they have produced for Neruz has been one of the most baffling things about this thread, especially in the early pages, as early as 4 I think when people were still in RVS and already proclaiming his innocence?

So this, coupled with Krazy's claim of cop and being suspicious of Grey for a while already, as well as his other posts, add credence to his claim as cop to me now. I still think that, if he is cop, outing a guilty right on the onset of D2 was bad-play for a cop.
It also paints a picture in my head that Llama

::Pure speculation time::
Krazy is town, Llama and others are scum, the four post interaction here, paints the picture for scum to kill DRK and mislynch Krazy.
Oh, wait.

Eh, I kind of feel like scum would be bussing in this situation since Krazy is pretty clearly unsalvageable, especially long term.

TBM's reasoning isn't profoundly awful either; a claim of "I am cop with guilty" that gets the response "Liar! I am doctor!" without thorough context-analysis would suggest believing the cop.

Sure this initially reads as Krazyscum, but with what my head's grinding up, it reads as "hey krazy's an easy mislynch that won't make us scum look too bad, so one or two of us get in on this."
And in this post he puts some slight suspicion on TBM on the side.

So yeah, long story short:
Llama is scum.
Krazy and Grey are who-the-fuck-knows anymore (I can buy both of their claims separately but not together, so I don't know wtf to do.)
BGG and DRK are dead and scum piggybacked off of DRK to push for Krazy's lynch.

[GreyICE]

Nope. Been the town doctor since I got my role PM. No pick and choose. Krazy is definitely, definitely, definitely scum.

Xine is such a goddamn definite read, there's no town reason for her to be waffling. Mute... uh... yeah, your logic blows chunks.

As for whether or not Xine's plan is a good idea, definitely, emphatically not. She's obvscum, no matter who you believe. I would self-vote before I will allow the town to lynch someone who is not Krazy or me today, and I meant it when I said I intend never to self-vote as town. I'd prefer Krazy, but to make this game work you guys need to know that Krazy is scum and I am town. And that means one of us gets lynched today.

If you lynch the scum, that's the best, because then I die at night. If you lynch me, we'll lose two more townies. But it's STILL better than lynching another person.

There are no acceptable votes other than Krazy or me. Period.

His claim is definitely, emphatically, 100% false. I'm going to go back through and highlight what I did in day 1 to set this up,I really, really don't want to be the lynch, but NO ONE else is acceptable today besides one of the two of us.

[Mute]

BTW Mute voting me while thinking Krazy is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense.

How doesn't it? I'm voting my biggest scum candidate, and taking note of others I'm curious about.

Nope. Been the town doctor since I got my role PM. No pick and choose. Krazy is definitely, definitely, definitely scum.

... Mute... uh... yeah, your logic blows chunks.

I'd go into this long diatribe about how that's not the case but my track record with life shows otherwise that my logic is rarely the same as others.

[GreyICE]

It's just kinda half complete. Like, completely utterly half complete. I like some of it, but some parts are like... waaaaaa?

As for the constant refrain of innocence, you know when I said I was guiding the NK? Xine is fairly obvscum. I figured, at that stage, that inserting the idea that a Xine scumflip would mean confirmed Neruz-town onto them would cause the bullet to go straight into Neruz, which I could intercept. That's when the refrain of Neruz being confirmed fucking town if Xine flipped scum, etc., came from.

Once Neruz started petering out around midday in response to the replacements and Bgg's wall of... uh... whatever, DRK picked up a goddamn lot of slack, and slammed a case into #2 on my scum candidates. I was more or less active lurking at that point to avoid becoming too large of a target, and I figured that was an easy time to start downplaying Neruz and pushing DRK. Which worked exactly as I intended, minus the roleblocker.

The bgg lynch meant I needed to play the PGO card, btw. I fully intended to leave it in my pocket since if DRK had been the one to force the lynch through on Krazy-scum, he'd have almost certainly been the NK target without me needing to do anything, and I was definitely moving away from strong town motivator at that point, but the bgg lynch (which he completely fucking deserved) made me a fairly good target for causing complete chaos on day 2.

[Hiraki]

BTW Mute voting me while thinking Krazy is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense.

Eh, convinced right here.

Vote: Krazy

[TheButtonmen]

BTW Mute voting me while thinking Krazy is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense.

Eh, convinced right here.

Vote: Krazy

What does the quote have to do with the vote?

[Neruz]

BTW Mute voting me while thinking Krazy is fakeclaiming makes NO townsense.

Eh, convinced right here.

Vote: Krazy

What does the quote have to do with the vote?

The quote suggests strongly that Mute is scumbuddies with Krazy, because if Mute thinks Krazy is fakeclaiming, then he thinks Krazy is scum,

so why is he voting Llmarble?

[GreyICE]

He initially voted Krazy, then unvoted to avoid the self-hammer. That's hardly anti-town.

[Neruz]

Oic, i retract my statement then.
Wups, i was actually the one who told him to unvote, my bad in accusing Mute for that there >.>