Mini Normal 1133 - Mafia in Venice

[Exilon]

I'm the Vigilante. Ice, you're up.

[ICEninja]

That would leave me last. I'm the cop. Night one I investigated RedCoyote, got a town read on him. I bread crumbed this slightly in saying that he was probably my biggest scum suspect leaving day 1, but I believe I made no mention of him day 2. Last night I investigated NE, and got a town read on him. I investigated NE because, as I said in my day 2 play, I would be more suspicious of NE if Klazam was indeed a miller as he said.

I believe the doc and vig claims 99%, as scum with a role blocker as part of their team and a town with a miller on their team almost makes town look underpowered without 3 really strong power roles. Since those power roles were claimed late with no counterclaim, I think its safe to say we're probably all solid. The fact that I was protected night 1 with no night 1 town death should prove my innocence beyond a doubt, and the death of a scum role blocker makes me about 99.9% sure there is no scum godfather.

I'm also almost positive I'm a sane cop as well.

Town has guaranteed won this game. We simply can't lose. Nice vig shot on night 1, Exilon. Props for that.

Let's lynch Pope today, I'll investigate AGar tonight and Exilon shoots Maemuki tonight. That leaves what, Ythan? Scum can't night kill us both, and because of the doctor may not be able to kill either of us. Even if the absolute worst happens and we can't round scum down to the last suspect by tomorrow, there will be fewer unconfirmed players than we have mislynches to spare.

Scum, if you want to concede at this point, I wouldn't blame you.

Vote Space Pope

.

[Ythan]

Still happy with a Pope wagon.

vote Space Pope

[Maemuki]

Well, I'm town, but if it makes you sleep better at night...eh, you said it. The game is almost won by this point. I think you're town, ICE, so I'll follow your plan - just don't be surprised by my flip tomorrow.

VOTE: Space Pope

[lewarcher82]

Votecount 3.1

1. Necessary Evil -0

2. Space Pope (replacing

theplague42

)-3 (ICENinja, Ythan, Maemuki)

3. Ythan -0
4. ICEninja -0
5. RedCoyote -0
6. Exilon -0
7. Maemuki -0
8. AGar -0

Not voting: Necessary Evil, Space Pope,RedCoyote, Exilon, AGar

with 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is Thursday the 31th March 2011 at 10:00 AM German Time (GMT+1)

[Space Pope]

Let's lynch Pope today,

I'll investigate AGar tonight and Exilon shoots Maemuki tonight

. That leaves what, Ythan? Scum can't night kill us both, and because of the doctor may not be able to kill either of us. Even if the absolute worst happens and we can't round scum down to the last suspect by tomorrow, there will be fewer unconfirmed players than we have mislynches to spare.

Scum, if you want to concede at this point, I wouldn't blame you.

Vote Space Pope

.

Sounds good to me. Though, I haven't seen a case yet (I'll expect one either before I'm lynched or in pregame), I'm still ok with my lynch as we will win anyways.

vote: Space Pope

[ICEninja]

My case is that you were the first unconfirmed player that popped in to my head. AGar was the second, Maemuki was the third, and I had to look at the player list to find Ythan.

Good enough?

So long as this setup is legitimate and there aren't any (repeatedly) missed night actions, town really has no chance to lose this one. I think even if town does absolutely nothing any night and randomly lynches any unconfirmed town during the day, town still wins. Scum would enter lylo with 2 confirmed town.

[Necessary Evil]

Good kills from the vig and good investigations from the cop. This one should be in the bag. I'll hammer space pope tomorrow if there are no loose ends to tie up.

[Exilon]

Space pope, most of my suspicion from you comes from gut from the way you acted yesterday.
The only thing I'm afraid of is that Ice's claim is fake, but yeah. It's a long shot, specially with a miller. But it seems weird to me that there's 3 PR's, and only a miller and a scum RB. but oh well.
I'll let NE hammer, if no one has nothing else to say

[ICEninja]

But it seems weird to me that there's 3 PR's, and only a miller and a scum RB. but oh well.

Maybe my experiences are different, but every game that has a miller has a cop. If you really think there's a fake claim, it would most likely be you as SK. Even so, scum PR + miller almost guarantees that there would be 3 town PRs, so I really do think all of the claims are true.

[Ythan]

I would say that the majority of my Pope suspicion actually comes from his predecessor.

Ice, I've played a game with a miller and no cop. I

think

it was in this same forum.

[Space Pope]

Ok, that makes since. I thought y'all thought I was scum from trying to hurry along the mass claim. Especially from Exilon's post on it today.

And ya, I've played miller no cop as well.

So claims are doc, vig, cop, -miller vs 1 goon, 1 RB, 1 goon/GF... Not sure I buy that actually. Doc/Cop combo is a very strong pro town combo. Adding a miller does little to mitigate that. Then adding a vig, which is swingy but favors town is over powered when up against 1 RB and 1 GF (even if investigative, NK immune) let alone 1 RB, 2 goons. Ugh, torn between scum reads and setup speculation.

Going to stick with Mae/Agar scum over ICE.

[Ythan]

A miller and a roleblocker. Why do you think newbies have roleblockers.

[AGar]

VOTE: Space Pope

This game is loltowns at this point.

[Ythan]

By the way, miller isn't the only compelling pro-cop point. Claimed doctor claims to have protected claimed cop, no kill.

[ICEninja]

What are the odds NE or Red is a godfather? Red was one of my more solid scum reads, and even during day 2 I was thinking "man it was good I investigated him or I'd seriously think he's scum". That is the only real concern I have at this point.

It is also physically possible that our claimed vig is indeed an SK. If Exilon shoots someone other than Mae/AGar/Ythan, he should probably be lynched tomorrow.

Don't make an "oopsie" of this, Ythan.

That being said, Space Pope is behaving in a way I would expect scum to considering the circumstances. Seeds of doubt.

I seriously feel like town would be underpowered if any of the claimed power roles are fake claims. Think about it, considering scum has a role blocker, if Exilon was SK, that would leave town brutally vulnerable. the cop/doc partnership is easily thwarted by the role blocker, and if either of them dies before day 2, which would be fairly likely considering SK, town would be horribly doomed.

Without a cop, doc/vig is in a similar boat, brutally weak. Vig isn't the most pro-town role, and docs aren't usually game changing like cops are.

Cop/vig is already impossible unless scum forgot to make a kill, considering night 1 had no kill. This is even more compelling evidence that all 3 claims are indeed true.

The only one, in my eyes, that can be possibly fake claim is Exlion. If he correctly shoots tonight, as I suggested, then we're fine. If at any point he shoots confirmed town, lynch him as he is obviously SK.

I see no holes in my plan as presented earlier, save the very slight possibility of either Red or NE being a godfather. If the game isn't over tomorrow, we'll devise a plan just in case one of them is. Town should win this EVEN IF one of them is.

[Ythan]

Odds? Take the likelihood that the role will appear and divide that by the number of living players who might be lying.

Physically

possible? Sounds like weasel word. It is quite possible that the claimed vig in the otherwise town/mafia game is sk. Or that he is vig. Could go either way.

Oopsie?

In what way could Pope act that would not read scum to you?

[ICEninja]

Take the likelihood that the role will appear and divide that by the number of living players who might be lying.

I wasn't asking for an exact calculation. I was simply voicing my understanding that this is the only plausible threat to town at this point. It was more wondering out loud, really. For terms of how we should play today, it doesn't really matter. If we lynch today, investigate tonight, shoot tonight, and still haven't come up with scum, then we'll need to actually think about it.

Physically possible? Sounds like weasel word. It is quite possible that the claimed vig in the otherwise town/mafia game is sk. Or that he is vig. Could go either way.

Seems extremely unlikely that town's only powers are cop and doc considering both miller and role blocker, as I stated in my previous post.

Oopsie?

By that I don't mean decide to kill someone like RedCoyote and say "oops I thought he wasn't confirmed town". That would result in us lynching him, which could be very bad if he is indeed town. That would cost us as many as 4 confirmed town, putting us back on even footing with scum instead of having an overwhelming advantage. So let's not do that.

In what way could Pope act that would not read scum to you?

I can't answer a negative like that, really. I don't know how he could act in a way that wouldn't read as scum, but I just feel a subtle disappointment coming from him. Considering the circumstances for scum, I would expect it to be difficult to hide some frustration, dispair, or at the very least some bitter disappointment. I would have a hard time hiding it, anyway.

I'm figuring the doctor is going to die tonight, unless scum is the person who is being investigated by me (and I'm the target, out of desperation) or the scum is the person who will be shot by Exilon (and he is the target, out of desperation). In the case that the doctor dies tonight, I figure both Exlion and I target the remaining unconfirmed player simultaneously, on the expectation that one of us will be night killed. Either way, the slot will be dead, confirmed town, or confirmed scum.

Worst case scenario and Red/NE is godfather, they can put us in to lylo if they NK exactly right.

[ICEninja]

Actually, the thought occurred to me that AGar would also have the potential to be a godfather. I can't believe I didn't consider that. If we are indeed facing a godfather, things might be really tricky. Let's hope AGar, NE, and Red are all VT.

[Ythan]

"Let's hope"? wtf is this shit

[RedCoyote]

I wouldn't put it by ICE to be overly cautious. That seems in character for him in the playstyle sense. Besides, the feelings of suspicion aren't mutual. ICE seemed a little excessive earlier, but that totally fits with a Cop claim and his investigation of me, I think. Never really felt any suspicion from Ythan, AGar, Mae, or NE, and I've wanted an SP lynch since, what, page 4 or 5?

On top of that, SP's rushed claim seemed really odd to me. It would kind of fit, actually if

he

was a Godfather role. He tried to get his VT claim out there in a rush to entice the supposed Cop, knowing both that the Cop would not want to investigate a PR and that his role slot was one of the more controversial. In other words, it's like he was trying every subtle thing he could to get that investigation.

Anyways, I'll do the honors.

Unvote

;

vote: Space Pope

[Ythan]

Honors? Is that the hammer?

[Maemuki]

I have the feeling AGar already hammered.

[ICEninja]

Either way we'll have the flip now. Please stick to the plan. I'll investigate AGar, and Maemuki needs to get shot, unless you want to take out Ythan instead. That would be fine also. Just don't shoot confirmed town or AGar.

[RedCoyote]

Oh, yeah, so he did. Heh.