Fate wrote:Its scum intent and mindset REEKing in those posts. I had forgotten guillitone players could vote, VP had, etc.
BUt SCUM? Oh they were just WAITING to make use.
Its probably black in white in the scum qt as a plan:
"If youre on the guillitone, lurk like hell and hammer whenever possible. THen WIFOM it up. GOGO GUYS"
I still maintain my RC scum read, doubt that'll ever go through.
AGM is definitely wrongtown mcdumbbutt.
Concission's alignment TBD, not sure why the hell SD scum flip makes him look any better.
Wait, so you're saying I'm scum
for knowing a game mechanic that was specifically discussed during the game
? After I'd been rereading the start of day 1 less than 2 days beforehand? No wonder you didn't respond when I implicitly asked about it here. You were there 2 minutes earlier responding to everything within a few minutes of it being said and suddenly you weren't interested in talking, huh?
I'll sort through the shit storm of SD WIFOM later, but I sure as hell remember which wagon he tried to stop at all costs.
Vote: Fate
"I WANNA lynch Vigilante Ventriloquist for being annoying enough to be a Reaper Charlie alt" -GreyICE
"Vig, go die in a hole now Please before I kill you myself." -The Acting Method
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to end the day immediately.
With no new votes until deadline, Fate will be placed on guillotine.
"Don’t buy a dozen eggs if you just want a hardboiled egg. Don’t buy a head of lettuce if you just want a salad. Don’t buy eggs and lettuce if you want egg salad because those are not the right ingredients." -Julius Bloop
I just want to open up with the comment that the Concission vote was pretty silly. Concission was either my top or my second-to-top town read. I have no idea where the hell the idea of lynching him came from, and I'm going to investigate that some more.
Fate 1636 wrote:I'll self-vote if SD flips scum. I'm that damn sure.
Still waiting.
I'm actually intrigued by your plan though. Normally I'm extremely opposed to lining up lynches, but I think you're onto something here. Either you think your partner is safe, or you want us to think your partner is safe. Which is it, Fate?
VV 1282 wrote:The fact that we couldn't get a single person to switch votes with 36 hours left before deadline to a wagon that at least 5 people favored is just sad.
Vote: Shadow Dancer
Pretty sure that's the hammer. If I die tonight, take another look at a Concission-Fate pairing please.
I'm posting on my phone right now, but rest assured -- I do actually have reads at this point that aren't bullcrap. Unfortunately, the post is in my computer, so you might have to wait until tomorrow afternoon. Sorry for the inconvinience.
SD's last minute performance was PRETTY convincing to me, but apparently it was all just a WIFOMball of "LEMME BUDDY UP TO VP/FATE HARDCOREZ AND THROW DOUBT ON THEM."
Yeah ok, the real last scum is Crypto, so his actions make sense.
Fate is absurdly beautiful. 運命に弄ばれる
"Fate you keep alternating between narratives of doing it for fun and doing it for the sake of winning"
I'm still not entirely sold on the Fate thing. I am however convinced that SD and VV made a terrible attempt to wifom away from each other yesterday in the dying hours.
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Crypto does kind of make sense as scum. He'd probably be happy to let VP-Fate vs. AGM-RC play out if we're all town. It may be time to call a truce and lynch VV/Crypto scum team.
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1) I think Fate should in fact vote himself. If not, he's shown himself to flat out lie. Does he sound persuasive, does he sound passionate? Yes. Are his actions all incorrect? Yes. The man can talk the talk, but he walks like a scumbag.
2) Equinox is pretty much guaranteed to be good. Thanks for subbing into a role in which you're guaranteed to die tomorrow, but I do think his fresh perspective should be taken very seriously as he's a guy we can trust.
Here's a note of meta....Fate is actually really terrible at 'talking the talk' when he's scum. He just can't fake it well from what I've seen. That's why I think he's town. LL, what do you think of VV/crypto scum team?
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Fate wrote:Concission's alignment TBD, not sure why the hell SD scum flip makes him look any better.
Oh, I don't know, Fate... maybe it was the opportunistic manner in which Shadow Dancer threw his vote on this wagon. Think about this: If Concission were scum, why would Shadow Dancer vote him when the wagon was guaranteed to lynch given plurality rules and approaching deadline? It's not practical to throw a scum buddy under the bus at that point.
Many people are right on the threshold for a prod. However, I don't check Saturday hours. Make sure to post on Saturday, because many of the people here will be due a prod
With 9 alive, it takes 5 to end the day immediately.
With no new votes until deadline, Fate will be placed on guillotine.
"Don’t buy a dozen eggs if you just want a hardboiled egg. Don’t buy a head of lettuce if you just want a salad. Don’t buy eggs and lettuce if you want egg salad because those are not the right ingredients." -Julius Bloop
Okay, time to bite into the delicious slice of WIFOM pie:
Shadow Dancer's main content post on guillotine contained the following reads:
SD wrote:Scum team: AGM + RC: Fate already mentioned a million more damn good bloody reasons than I would ever care to do for even the slowest of you to get bith the individual scumminesses of those two as well as the obvious connection.
Third scum: Whaddafuk do I know. Some one along Maem/LL/Conc (in that order of likelihood).
Somewhat townsomethingelish: VV, Crypto
sure town: Baltar, Fate - that being said - listen to Fate - he actually has something to say. Ignore Baltar. He is posting about 50% BS.
confirmed town (obviously): Zor.
We'll start with the obvious. Most natural stance here for scum is to split up one's buddies. The first logical place to look for that would be in AGM/RC. I'm going to discount the possibility of RC-scum entirely for now and explain why later (not that anyone can't figure it out). That would, theoretically at least, imply AGM-scum. However, I'm really not so sure of that. As much as scum in his position would love to just throw down some insta-WIFOM, he was constrained quite a bit by his previous reads. RC and AGM were his two big scum reads from earlier on and to suddenly drop either of them would look shady. I think it's actually less likely to find one of his buddies in this group and more likely to find one in his next group, i.e. his "Third scum" group of Mae, LL, and Concission. Mae replaced Jarti, LL and Concission are themselves, simply because it would be much easier to throw a buddy onto that list without it being questioned.
SD wrote:So it's a stupid me waggon versus another lame arse Conc waggon now? No, thank you...
Important thing to note here, of course, is his stance on Concission. He's taken the stance that Concission is town. Where does that read change?
Well, aside from one post in which he responds to one of Concission's posts, SD doesn't mention Concission again until post #1283, in which he calls Concission's vote fishy
after
majority had been reached on him. Let's check out Concission's votes and posts regarding the wagons around that time. He only had two posts that really addressed the issue anyway:
Spoiler: Concission posts
First we have post #1217, in which we get the following nice bit of waffling from Concission:
Concission wrote:At this point, I don't want an AGM lynch but I don't particular think SD is super scummy either. I don't see what the rush is and why people are putting off themselves just because they are "waiting for Conc to vote".
Comes the deadline I'll vote SD.
Reads a lot to me like someone trying to stay as much out of the issue as possible. Especially so with the second sentence in his first paragraph. It sounds like he's trying to push us to lynch without him having to give input. He really set himself up here to waffle later if necessary. He throws down middling reads on each of the two major wagons and says he'll vote SD come deadline, but encourages everyone else to consider other possibilities, while not supplying any other possibilities himself and not voting anyone else (he wasn't voting at this point). Really reads as scum looking to subtly discourage the wagon on his buddy without being tied to the wagon dying.
His other post regarding the major wagons was hisvote:
Concission wrote:I'd prefer an SD lynch
Vote:Shadow Dancer
Come on, we need 1 more vote.
He suddenly sounds excited about an SD lynch for someone who didn't think SD is super scummy. The time before deadline is an awfully strange time to suddenly decide to be excited about a lynch you were meh on just one iso post earlier.
Is it a coincidence that Concission and Shadow Dancer both seemingly decide the other are scummy at the very same time and that that time is right as Shadow Dancer is about to be lynched?
I'm not interested in spending all day on this post, so I'll leave possible analysis of his positions on LL/Maemuki until later or for someone else and continue on the Concission train of thought here.
We come back to day 3 now with Shadow Dancer on guillotine. He parks his vote on RC the first time he says anything about the game and sticks with that vote most of the day. The real fun happens when he decides to change that vote:
SD wrote:Anyway, this gives me the freedom to try and
UNVOTE. VOTE AGM
Counterwaggon gogogogo!
Let's check out the vote count at that point:
The only change since the previous vote count is that crypto had suddenly left RC in order to vote Concission. Now, it looked until this point as though RC would be lynched. He was, with no vote changes, the lynch at deadline, and it was unlikely for votes to move anywhere else. I mentioned this conclusion earlier and I probably don't really need to point this out, but that almost certainly means RC is town. SD stayed on the wagon up until the point it was no longer likely to end in lynch. There was really no benefit for him to do that in his situation if RC is scum. It's still very odd that he would change his vote though. Why would he bother? I can think of a few good reasons here.
He was afraid of RC getting too much town cred for his staying on the wagon, panicked, and jumped off.
He was afraid of the Fate-scum-wagon having the most votes and decided to try to get a new wagon going that he thought could get support. Note that this would suggest pretty strongly that AGM is town, making it even more likely my original assumption that SD put one of his buddies in his "Third scum" category was correct.
He was afraid of crypto's hop onto Concission.
The first two conclusions here are definitely the most solid possibilities, but I do think the third carries some weight, especially given his later wagon hops. More on that to come.
Fate's post immediately following SD's vote switch is interesting though:
Fate wrote:Shadow: ... you idiot. Now I'll lynched come deadline since I've reached L-2 first.
That doesn't sound like a player talking to a town read to me. It sounds A LOT like scum getting pissed at a buddy that did something stupid. You remember how Fate defended SD day 1? You remember how Fate went for the AGM wagon over the SD wagon day 2? Makes sense, doesn't it?
Anyway, Fate then flails wildly to get someone else lynched. Not necessarily scummy, considering he was up for lynch if not, but it's interesting how SD/Fate form a voting block here. SD voted AGM, then Fate hopped on. Then Fate goes for Concission, immediately after which Shadow Dancer votes for Concission. Of course, after all this, we have Fate's version of Concission's suddenly-excited post when he votes SD:
Fate wrote:Because he's never been here and he's never SAID scummy shit that wold incite a rage-wagon on him.
All it took was crypto's refusal to compromise.
AMERICA.
FUCK YEAH?>
He's suddenly decided Concission is scum that's just been lurking. I could've sworn he made no mention of Concission being scum earlier (I don't really care to check right now, so correct me if I'm wrong on that). Why the change of opinion? Scum busing their lurking member to keep their active member alive, perhaps?
Of course, Shadow Dancer throws in one more wagon hop for good measure:
SD wrote:OK... Let's make a final approach.
Unvote. Vote AGM
So why the final wagon hop?
Well, let's check the vote count:The only thing that had changed since his vote was that Maemuki had also voted Concission, bringing him 2 votes ahead of Fate. That is to say, because of Maemuki's vote, he could safely unvote Concission and still have enough leeway that Fate wouldn't be lynched by a single unvote.
Let's look slightly deeper though. Why bother switching wagons now? It was painfully clear that his vote on AGM was meaningless. My opinion is that he was trying to set up AGM here to be an easy mislynch later on. It would be such a simple WIFOM trick: make us think he was trying to bus at the last second to buy town cred for a buddy. Very open to speculation, of course, but it looks like a pretty solid possibility to me.
Whew, that was a long post! (Might actually be the longest post I've ever written...)
Here's the tl;dr for those of you that are just going to skim it:
1. Concission/Equinox is probably scum.
2. Fate is probably our third scum.
3. If you want the stunning reasoning that led to these results, read the rest of the post! (It's not thaaaat painful to read...)
"I WANNA lynch Vigilante Ventriloquist for being annoying enough to be a Reaper Charlie alt" -GreyICE
"Vig, go die in a hole now Please before I kill you myself." -The Acting Method
I need to read over SD's posts for sure. I'm guessing this is where VPB and Fate are implying there is a connection between VV. I didn't notice anything in the run up to yesterday's lynch with the exception of someone pointing out a little earlier that SD was conspicuously singling out VV somewhat. That said, he was doing the same thing for me, so I don't know how much stock I'm ready to put into that.
Even if I begrudgingly accept that VPB has just let Fate pull his strings this game, I have a very hard time seeing a Fate-VV scumteam. I need to read the game in this context. My gut tells me Fate and Jarti are a team though, because I know, having been absolutely on top of Fate longer than anyone else here has, Jarti has flipped, flopped, hemmed, and hawed this entire game on the prospect of going after Fate. Mae has not done any better (and, in fact, done considerably worse with her weird "angry vote" on Fate yesterday) to convince me otherwise.
I read part of your post. I will probably give it another go later when I've had coffee and don't feel like killing myself while reading it. The reason I disagree with it is because IT MAKES LESS THAN ZERO SENSE FOR SD TO WANT TO LYNCH HER SCUMBUDDY AT THE LAST MINUTE.
I don't care how many words you write. You're not going to convince me that even a noob with zero games on site would make that play. This is why you're scum.
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Do whatever you're doing, drink your coffee, then kill yourself reading the post. I would definitely say there was enough justification in the game state at that point for him to bus Concission.
"I WANNA lynch Vigilante Ventriloquist for being annoying enough to be a Reaper Charlie alt" -GreyICE
"Vig, go die in a hole now Please before I kill you myself." -The Acting Method
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