Open 289 - Hard Boiled - Game over.

[Vordark]

So the investigator has the ability to choose either to be Det or Psych. Psych knows if someone can kill, but gets a negative result if they have. Det knows if someone has killed, but gets a negative result if not. One Mafia is dead, leaving two. Getting a meaningful report now seems possible only in the following ways:

If the investigator chose Detective: He correctly picks the person who kills tonight, or the person who killed last night if last night's killer was not Quaroath. The odds of this seem very low.

If the investigator chose Psych: He correctly picks the person who has not killed. If Quaroath was not the killer last night, the odds of this are very near zero.

I could do out the math, but even without exact numbers this seems like an outside chance. I'm not writing this PR off as useless, but I do think that voting no lynch tonight in favor of waiting for an investigation report does not make any sense. Regardless, is sounds like not scum hunting.

[Vordark]

EBWOP: Rather, the Det/Psy role is randomly determined. The player does not actually choose, but the end result is the same.

[implosion]

Vote count 2.2:

Krazy - 0
Umbrage - 1 (Ythan)
Ythan - 1 (Krazy)
Regfan - 0
Snake Eyes - 0
Vordark - 0
Abelcain - 1 (DarthYoshi)
DarthYoshi - 1 (Vordark)
No lynch - 3 (Umbrage, Snake Eyes, Regfan)

(NL-1)

Not voting: Abelcain.

With 8 alive, 5 votes are required to lynch or 4 votes are required to no lynch.

Prods: me (keep up the good activity )

[Krazy]

Please do not hammer on NL. In fact I'd appreciate if someone would take it back down to L-2 by unvoting for now so that this day is not rushed.

[Umbrage]

No problem. UNVOTE: No-Lynch

[Abelcain]

@Everyone: Do not vote no-lynch any further until we all agree that the no-lynch is the best course of action and we are satisfied with the amount of discussion we have had today. If we decide to call the no-lynch early to give the scum less information we must once again be sure that everyone agrees with it.

@ Krazy, thanks for catching that, but I'm just giving it in bold in case someone else comes in and skims it.

@Umbrage, I'm not sure if you just skimmed this paragraph I posted earlier, but it's about what would happen if we followed your plan and the Det/Psy gets counterclaimed:

Wait a second. This just occurred to me, but it involves a counterclaim in your plan. It's possible that scum could fakeclaim Det/Psy and claim a guilty on a town. It's also possible that they could fakeclaim Det/Psy even if the real Det/Psy has a guilty. So even if the Det/Psy did get a guilty result tomorrow, there's no way to verify that it's an actual investigation result and not a fakeclaim from scum. This... completely removes any use the Det/Psy might have come tomorrow. If we decide to just lynch the guilty and it turns out to be a fakeclaim, we lose. If anything, the Det/Psy is just a glorified townie now the same way the HT is because scum wouldn't be stupid enough to just let the guilty go through if they can fake us out.

What do you think we should do in light of this?

@Vordark, I don't know if that last part was directed at me but I am in no way saying we should call for a no-lynch in hopes of getting a Det/Psy result. As I said in the post I quoted above, I don't even think the Det/Psy could be that useful even if he does get a guilty, since scum can counterclaim anyway. But Umbrage's idea is to sacrifice the HT do that the Det/Psy is guaranteed another check, and he wants to lynch on top of that because that way we can get in a lynch with a confirmed townie or a unique-counterclaim-situation. I agree with him that we should probably go for a lynch if the HT claims today, but I think that it's a better move to have the HT

not

claim and wait for tomorrow. As I said, there's a 2/3 chance that both the HT and the Det/Psy will live to tomorrow, which gives us a double-claim situation; if one of them gets killed then we still have the one-claim situation with the available mislynch.

[DarthYoshi]

I think on the basis of AC's last post, a no-lynch is probably preferable to having the HT claim today. However, if one of the PRs is whacked tonight, what do the no-lynch advocates see as the contingency plan for that?

@Krazy: A second suspect from me? Probably SE, I'm getting bad ju-ju from the heavy amounts of active lurking he has been doing lately.

[Umbrage]

Wait a second. This just occurred to me, but it involves a counterclaim in your plan. It's possible that scum could fakeclaim Det/Psy and claim a guilty on a town. It's also possible that they could fakeclaim Det/Psy even if the real Det/Psy has a guilty. So even if the Det/Psy did get a guilty result tomorrow, there's no way to verify that it's an actual investigation result and not a fakeclaim from scum. This... completely removes any use the Det/Psy might have come tomorrow. If we decide to just lynch the guilty and it turns out to be a fakeclaim, we lose. If anything, the Det/Psy is just a glorified townie now the same way the HT is because scum wouldn't be stupid enough to just let the guilty go through if they can fake us out.

This is actually one of the reasons I support having the HT claim now rather than later, because scum won't counter-claim. I admit, I don't know what to do about the D/P claiming. The D/P should claim whenever they have a guilty, but if it's lylo... We'll just have to rely on good old-fashioned scum-hunting.

[Abelcain]

I think on the basis of AC's last post, a no-lynch is probably preferable to having the HT claim today. However, if one of the PRs is whacked tonight, what do the no-lynch advocates see as the contingency plan for that?

If we lose one of the PRs, we'll still have the other one. Like I said earlier, a Det/Psy counterclaim can even stop an actual Det/Psy guilty from being confirmed, so the Det/Psy essentially is about the same level of use as the HT is - namely, a unique claim (although it has the added bonus of a slight chance of getting a usable investigation if we ever confirm his identity). So basically we're guaranteed to have at least one PR that can claim tomorrow, and we'll have the mislynch available to verify them in case there's a scum counterclaim - this was the basis of my original explanation of why we should no-lynch and wait for the claim. No matter what, tomorrow we'll have a PR that can claim. There's a 2/3 chance that we'll have

two

, which would definitely be better, but even having one PR to claim for tomorrow is a potent weapon against the scum.

Basically, the train of thought goes something like this:

• Scum kill one of the PRs at night.
  
• Living PR claims.
  
• If there is no counterclaim, we have a confirmed town. This means we have an even smaller group to choose from when picking scum (2 out of the remaining 6 are scum)
  and
  a mislynch available.
  
• If there is a counterclaim, we lynch one of the claimers (dependent on who the town thinks is scummiest). If we're wrong, we use up our mislynch, which puts us in LyLo, but then we
  know
  that the other claimer is scum. Guarantees us 2 vs. 1 LyLo at worst.

Now, since we're generally in agreement that no-lynch is the best option, the question becomes "Do we want to prolong the day to scumhunt some more, or should we cut the day short to limit the information for scum so they have more difficulty guessing the PRs?" I'm not really leaning towards either side, but I'm willing to cut the day short if everyone else is.

[Krazy]

Doesn't this sound so ominous now:

Vordark, I will get to you either today or tomorrow.

Also, AC, did you ever throw out a second FoS?

Mostly want to hear back from Snake Eyes though, but I suppose he's V/LA now.

[DarthYoshi]

This game is slowing way the hell down again. Ythan, Vordark, SE, et al, let's look alive.

I can't believe I'm saying this on the basis of my #1 scumread's argument, but I actually see the logic behind a no-lynch today if we think we will otherwise be in mylo in a day or so. I'm still thinking it over--I'm not fully convinced yet, since I've been brainwashed with the "town should always lynch unless it's mylo" argument, but I'm trying to keep an open mind here.

[Umbrage]

Still here. Still think HT claiming is the best strategy for today. Still think no-lynch is waste of time. But hey, you guys do what you want.

[Ythan]

Having an uncounterable claim will be more and more valuable as the game progresses. Umbrage argues that we might lose the HT if they don't claim now. What, because scum will accidentally kill them? Scum will almost certainly kill them immediately after claiming. Umbrage's constant defense of an obviously antitown tactic is reinforcing his place as my number one read.

IDIOT.

READ MY POSTS.

THE WHOLE POINT IS THAT SCUM WILL KILL HIDER TRACKER THAT NIGHT.

I THOUGHT ABOUT THAT.

I THOUGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING THAT COULD HAPPEN.

AND I POSTED EVERY POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

TRY READING IN ORDER TO UNDERSTAND.

I DON'T FEEL LIKE REPEATING MYSELF AGAIN TO EXPLAIN WHAT I'VE ALREADY EXPLAINED A THOUSAND TIMES.

READ MY POSTS AND FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF.

IF YOU'VE NOTHING TO CONTRIBUTE OTHER THAN "UMBRAGE IS STILL SCUM" DO THE TOWN A FAVOUR AND REPLACE OUT NOW.

@ Krazy: Top two FoSes? Meaning take a stab at guessing the scum.

Honestly, Snake Eyes' lurkiness strikes me more as town than scum. I still think he's one of the scummiest players in the game, but I'm beginning to evaluate that read.

I'm still sure Abelcain knew Xtoxm's alignment. I simply can't see town saying something like that. Maybe I'm just paranoid though, nobody else seems to have seen it.

Lately I'm concerned about Ythan and his tunneling on me. When he was attacking Krazy, it was scummy, but understandable. But his town play has deteriorated even further. Krazy is way better than he is at this point.

The fact that nobody agrees with your retarded plan no matter how many times you repeat yourself should give you a clue that maybe you should quit shouting the same bullshit at the top of your lungs in every post.

[Umbrage]

The fact that nobody agrees with your retarded plan no matter how many times you repeat yourself should give you a clue that maybe you should quit shouting the same bullshit at the top of your lungs in every post.

The fact that nobody agrees with your retarded plan

The fact that nobody agrees

nobody agrees

Instead of responding to my arguments, Yfuck decides to appeal to the majority. After all, why should someone use logic when they can hide behind the crowd of other people's arguments? If 'nobody agrees' anyway, who cares if Yfuck skimps on his reading?

I think I remember seeing this behaviour before. Where was that? Oh yeah, FROM EVERY SINGLE SCUM IN EVERY SINGLE MAFIA GAME I HAVE EVER PLAYED. NOW GO BACK TO NEWBIE GAMES BEFORE YOU EMBARRASS YOURSELF FURTHER.

[Umbrage]

Hey, Yfuck, I just thought of something.

I'll humbly apologize for everything I said to you and admit I was wrong about everything IF...

you prove how my plan is invalid.

I want a solid argument outlining something I missed.

No personal attacks.

No appeal to majority.

Not a rehash of one of the arguments I've already dispelled.

Just a simple worst-case scenario that shows a serious flaw with my plan.

You know, like the kind they make in mafia games.

All you gotta do.

Or, you can resort to your typical strategy of contributing nothing except saying that other people aren't contributing.

In which case I'll continue to laugh at your fucking stupidity.

Your call.

[Ythan]

Yes, I'm appealing to majority. The twentieth time you repeated your opinion. Oh no boohoo nobody likes your idea. Start a diary if you need a place to bitch about these things, quit filling the thread with your awful posting.

[Umbrage]

Yes, I'm not coming up with any content. The twentieth time you repeated your opinion made me think it would be safest to jump on the bandwagon. Oh no boohoo staying on the loser's side sucks. Start a diary if you need a place to contribute content, quit filling the thread with your unpopular opinions.

Yep. My scumometer's pretty strong right about now.

[implosion]

Umbrage and Ythan, please stop the personal attacks or I will invoke general rule 1 and force replace/modkill. Last warning.

Also, Snake Eyes and Regfan are prodded.

[Umbrage]

So.

Activity in this game sucks.

I still have yet to see a valid argument against the HT claiming other than 'MAJORITY DONT WANT SO SUK IT RETARD'. (And as we all know, the majority has always been right.)

But at this point, with this activity level, no-lynch might be the best option. I've got exams coming up, so I can't take the time to study the thread and find scum on my own. I don't see us agreeing on anyone any time soon, and if we try and force a decision our chances of a mislynch increase.

So against my better judgement, I'm willing to go along with a no-lynch.

[Ythan]

I still have yet to see a valid argument against the HT claiming other than 'MAJORITY DONT WANT SO SUK IT RETARD'. (And as we all know, the majority has always been right.)

Then kindly learn to read the damn thread good sir. Thinking you have an argument in favor of a claim does not mean that the actually reasonable argument (or ten) against it doesn't exist. If you say "nope that's dumb derp here's my idea" then the coherent thoughts that you, how to bowdlerize this for the mod, poop on, are still there.

[Umbrage]

Cool story bro. But it doesn't change the facts:

I still have yet to see a valid argument against the HT claiming other than 'MAJORITY DONT WANT SO SUK IT RETARD'.

For every concern against my plan made thus far, I've proven why it still works. If you think otherwise, cite examples. I have no interest in starting a pissing match with you. Either show some reasoning or get out. I'd like to remind you that you were the one to bring this up after I agreed to no-lynch. I've already proven everything I need to prove, and I don't need to justify myself to you at this point in time.

You know, until you make an argument worth responding to, I'll just cut and paste this message in reply! It'll save time that I could use for important things!

[Ythan]

Until you accept that throwing out a theory and pretending you've proven something is a bullshit way to approach a game containing more than one person, your posts are going to continue to lack any value.

[Regfan]

I apologise for my slight absense I really had no idea it was as long as it seemed to be, with that said I've caught up with the thread and there is literally no new information apart from Umbrage and Ythans continual bickering. A no-lynch is the best way to go forth, it means no power role is forced to claim today allowing a high likelyhood that we can have two clears alive tommorow. Even if one were to die we would have to NL tommorow regardless meaning as long as everyones stated their thoughts thus there's no downside to a no lynch.

Ythan - You believe that Umbrage is mafia, would you mind putting together a case for me, his recent posts seem to be attempting chaos rather then anything else.

[Ythan]

Do you want information on Scumbrage to evaluate or do you want me to make a specific stand? If the latter, it's been a busy weekend but I still intend to wrap up when I'm down the list.

[Regfan]

If it's possible for you to do both, that would be highly appreciated. From re-reading interactions I feel the need to get some thoughts down before I forget them later. If you need any explained just ask and I'll elaborate.

If Umbrage is mafia Snake and Ythan are town.
If Snake is mafia Umbrage is town.
If Darth is mafia Vordark and Abelcain are town.
If Abelcain is mafia Darth is town.
If Krazy is mafia Ythan is town.
If Ythan is mafia Krazy and Umbrage are town.
If Vordark is mafia Darth is town.